Ten lessons from eight campaigns

Canada's about to get another election -- the eighth in my career as a political journalist. Here, a loose collection of lessons I've learned from those eight campaigns, mostly revolving around what I know best -- how the media cover elections.  

1. The politicians don't decide the elusive "ballot question." The voters do. 

2. After a flurry of headlines and front-page news for the first week, the election goes quiet in the second week. It is entirely possible to forget (unless you're in the middle of it) that we're actually having an election. Campaign stories slip off the front pages and sometimes off the nightly news all together. Public attention doesn't pick up again until after the televised leaders' debates, which usually take place around Week 3. 

3. About those debates. Everyone resolves not to talk about "knock-out punches," because they are a hackneyed cliche and rarely happen in real life.   When the debates happen, everyone talks about "knock-out punches" and whether they happened. Everyone forgets that it takes a few days to determine what was the "defining moment" of the debates; it's often not what the commentators  said it was that evening.  

4. Reporters will make "fit to govern" judgments based on how well the tour buses perform  in the area of feeding and accommodating the media. Campaign buses that get lost or break down or fail to provide three square meals a day to reporters will be pronounced abject failures at political leadership/competence. 

5. All media will declare that they're going to not report on polls in the same old way and will break that promise by Day 2. 

6. All media will say that they're going to talk to "real people," not strategists and communications advisers. The "real people" they ask for opinion will quickly turn into armchair strategists and communications advisers. 

7. Applies to all parties: Policy announcements will be made in the morning, the rest of the day will be a flurry of reactions while the campaign planes/buses travel, and the evenings will be devoted to rallies.  This means that the reporters aboard the planes actually only have news to file in the mornings and people watching TV  are more up to date than the tour reporters about what's happened that day in the campaign. 

8. There will be arguments on the tours about the price of seats aboard the planes/buses. Reporters will say that their money should guarantee a minimum number of scrums with the leaders, which is sort of like paying for access, an ethical  no-no, but we'll argue the point anyway, with some enthusiasm.

9. All politicians will say they're going to win. They are not lying to us. Every politician has to believe they're going to win, just to get out of bed every morning and do the hard work of campaigning every day. Journalists will persist in trying to get the politicians to say they're going to lose/falter, however.  

10. Some of the best stories of the campaign will be produced by people off the buses. Which will make us all wonder whether we should revisit the idea of mass coverage of the tours, but at the next election, we'll all hop aboard those leaders' buses again anyway. 

 

Hope that helps. Welcome to Campaign 2011. 

 

Comments

[Emily Madsen]

Thank you ... my guide through the BS-filled days to come ;0)

[Observant]

This election will be known as the Liberal's $300 Million Mistake for Canada, i.e. Michael Ignatieff.

[Darwin O'Connor]

What would help is if the newspapers promise to put all notable policy announcements during the election on the front page, and keep all the horse-race and polls stuff off the front page.

"This election will be known as the Liberal's $300 Million Mistake for Canada"

What is your opinion of the 2008 election called by Harper for no apparent reason in violation of his own election date law.

[Gary Friesen]

Susan;
You left out one sure thing that has always amazes me. Two candidates can go house to house in the same neighbourhood and come back saying that the vast majority of the people they talked to shared their concerns and will support them as candidate. Either those interviewed are deceptful or the candidates are less than truthful. What a surprise!

[Bocanut]

Did Don Burroughs approve Delacourt's list?

[Alex]

I would suggest that in my opition this election is not "Liberals $ 300 million mistake for Canada", but shall be remembered as "next day morning" after Conservatives $ 50 billion Budget Deficit mistake for Canada. Can you imagine the temp with which the Conservatives flushed away your and my money?

[Rod Croskery]

Why is no one talking about a possible Bloc/Conservative coaliton? The Bloc split off from Mulroney's Conservatives over Meech Lake, but they're not a bunch of left-wing loonies. They're nationalists, not unlike Harper's own Calgary-centric orientation.

In fairness, Harper should have to face the coalition question as often as Ignatieff, as there's a lot less space on the political spectrum between the CPC and the Bloc than between the Liberals and the NDP. Oh yes, and Harper and Duceppe have already tried this gambit against the Martin government, only the Governor General wouldn't allow it.

So don't take Harper's warnings about coalitions too seriously. If it means hanging onto the keys to Sussex Drive, he'll do it himself in a minute.

[Stephen Reid]

If Ignatieff keeps getting asked by reporters about a coalition, can at least one reporter ask Harper tomorrow if he comes in second, would he, as he did in 2005 seek a coalition of some sort to stay in power? It is frustrating to see his (and all politicians) hypocrisy. Because he does not take questions, he seems to be getting a free ride with this.

[David B]

Susan ..... do you think any journalist has what it takes to ask Mr. Harper if this is true by passing him a copy in person on camera?

September 9, 2004
Her Excellency the Right Honourable Adrienne Clarkson,
C.C., C.M.M., C.O.M., C.D.
Governor General
Rideau Hall
1 Sussex Drive
Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0A1

Excellency,

As leaders of the opposition parties, we are well aware that, given the Liberal minority government, you could be asked by the Prime Minister
to dissolve the 38th Parliament at any time should the House of Commons fail to support some part of the government's program.

We respectfully point out that the opposition parties, who together constitute a majority in the House, have been in close consultation. We
believe that, should a request for dissolution arise this should give you cause, as constitutional practice has determined, to consult the
opposition leaders and consider all of your options before exercising your constitutional authority.

Your attention to this matter is appreciated.

Sincerely,

Hon. Stephen Harper, P.C., M.P.
Leader of the Opposition
Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada

[Debbie]

You forgot to mention a #11. That all columnists, papers, newscasters, and bloggers have a partisian side and everything will be viewed through the eyes of this side. Because of this you must be very adapt at reading between the lines.

[David B]

Yes Susan, sadly the more things change the more they remain the same, the real issues will go untouched by the media like health and education ... here in Canada we have 250/per day turning age 65 and have been since Jan 1/11. Time and time again we are told our children require higher education to compete on the world stage.... The biggest expense by any government Health & Education ... so although I agree with your list #1 is really the game the MSM and of course they know incarceration in Canada costs 90-$120,000 each per/day. So much info the media has that they could share rather than jump on silly silly non issues wasting valuable prime time coverages. Then again what the heck does an old fool like me know eh?

Enjoy your election coverages ..... I wish I could snap my finger and fly off and return early on election day in time to vote. Sadly I am junkie for politics and must suffer most days.

[john]

I think it'd be fun to be on the tour bus of any of the leaders. Grueling, tiring maybe boring at times I'm sure but still amazing all the same. Well for people who like politics anyway.

[Fareed]

NOTE TO Observant re: "This election will be known as the Liberal's $300 Million Mistake for Canada, i.e. Michael Ignatieff."
--
I guess then that the unnecessary election call by Harper in 2008 is also a $300 million "Mistake for Canada"? I hope you were protesting an unnecessary election back then.
--
The fact is that democracy isn't cheap and we in the west tend to take it for granted. If you want to live in a democracy then you should not be complaining about the cost of maintaining it.
--
If you truly want to know how valued democracy is then look at what is happening in Libya, Yemen, Qatar, and other places where people are paying in blood and lives to have the privilege that we will have in several weeks time -- that of being able to select our government and pass judgment on those who govern us. If they heard the sort of comments like that above they would shake their heads in absolute astonishment that some of us, living in a democracy as we do, react to the democratic process in such a shabby and uncaring manner.

[Bruce]

Well said Fareed. I am not in favour of this election and consider our choice to be the lessor of evils. I also will value to the end, my right to have that choice.

[Sheila]

God how I wish people would stop referring the the 300 million an election costs is a waste of money ... people all over the middle east are rioting, fighting and dying for this priveledge. There is no such thing as too much democracy.

If you don't want to vote every two years start voting more strategically for a majority government. Historically minority governments in Canada typically last about two years, most far less.

@Alex ... yes the Bloc came from the Mulroney conservatives, but today they are just another party of entitlements. We need rid of this blackmailing menace if we want 4-5 years of stability. As long as the Bloc is part of the Canadian electoral fabric, we will likely have minorty governments.

[davecbanff]

Methinks Harper does protest, lie and deceive too much...
Reality check:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nbZjGGWk528&feature=player_embedded

Be Empire!!!

[Phil]

Looking at past votes are we; Harper has to feel pretty good about running against the man who lost to Dion and was so frightened of Rae that he got appointed rather than elected leader.

[Denise Dubuque]

Mr. Harper refuses to work with other parties, it has to be his way or the highway! If he has nothing to hide why did he refuse to cooperate and therefore be found in contempt of parliament? He is not the only party who can deal with the economy as he so arrogantly beleives.
In my opinion it would be a catastrofic mistake to give a majority to a government who is deaf and blind to the needs of middle class people. A government has to earn the trust of parliament and the people.Mr. Harper failed misserably in that area.
Denise Dubuque