Three weeks in the life of a dead party
A little, chronological glimpse into the recent, roller-coaster debate over the Liberals' future.
Nov. 9, 2011: Interim Liberal leader Bob Rae delivers a much-reported speech on the state of his party.
Nov. 10, 2011: The Liberal Party's president and national board unveil a flurry of documents under the title "Roadmap to Renewal". This in turn prompts a weekend full of interviews, news features, on the Liberal party's prospects -- including long items on CBC Radio's The House, CTV Question Period, etc.
Nov. 16-21: Pollster Nik Nanos goes into the field with regular surveying on Canadians' political preferences.
Nov. 18: First excerpts, news stories appear about Peter C. Newman's new book, which proclaims the Liberal party dead. We also learn, in what is obviously a typo, that Ignatieff doomed his own fate when he eschewed the advice of CBC's Rex Murphy.
Nov. 22: Newman's book is released. Another wave of stories about whether the Liberal party is dead; interviews with author.
Nov. 28: New Nanos poll is released, showing a bump in the Liberal party's fortunes.
This morning, on Twitter, I wondered aloud whether the Nanos poll shows a Liberal party rising despite or because of the rumours of its demise. Ipsos pollster Darrell Reid answered: Fundamentals haven't changed. 100 mundane explanations are just as valid as Grits prospects improved.
Personally, I'm suspecting that it's merely a reflection of mundane things like attention and name recognition. Or it could be that Canadians now actually believe that Rex Murphy is giving advice to the Liberals.