The (rising) cost of democracy

Here's an article that is, and should be, provoking some thought among Ottawa reporters mulling the possibility of an imminent election campaign.

It's a New York Times piece on the dwindling numbers of reporters aboard the campaign planes in the U.S. presidential race. Cost is a big factor - reportedly $2,000 a day (yes, a day) to cover a recent trip by Barack Obama.

That cost may seem staggering, but it's not out of whack with Canadian reporters' costs in federal elections. During the 2005-06 campaign, which lasted seven weeks, the political parties billed media organizations around $9,000 per reporter, per week. And that didn't include hotel costs. So divide that billing up by seven, add hotels and overtime costs, and you're looking at a figure approaching $1,500 a day, if not higher. Is it any wonder why news organizations may be thinking twice? In the last election campaign, Sun columnist Greg Weston and CanWest columnist Don Martin rebelled against the costs by outfitting themselves in a Hummer and shadowing the Conservative tour as it made its way around Ontario.

Above and beyond the question of the cost - and the real question of whether reporters are actually subsidizing the expenses of the leaders' tours - there's also the issue of value for money. All the leaders' tours increasingly have operated on the same kind of rhythm: a press release of some policy announcement in the morning, all-day travelling, and a rah-rah rally at night. Almost no interaction with the leaders, and even the aides keep themselves closeted away a large part of the time. That means often that the "news" that print reporters are getting on these punishingly expensive tours is actually nearly a day old when they can get a chance to file to the newsroom and the story is turned into a piece for the morning paper. Worse, that same piece of news has been on Newsworld and Newsnet every hour.

All this to say, the NYT article is making a lot of us revisit conversations about how to cover leaders' tours without bankrupting our bosses, while providing news or analysis of some significance. That conversation is clearly also well under way in the U.S.

The 'Buzz' about Liberal candidates

Last night, CTV's Mike Duffy floated a rumour that the Liberals were recruiting Toronto Mayor David Miller and Buzz Hargrove of the CAW to run in the GTA in the next election. The same rumour is being circulated over at the National Newswatch website.

The official word from the Liberals is this: "If only it were true," a spokesperson from Liberal leader Stephane Dion's circle told us last night.

The rumour seems to have its origins in the final paragraphs of a March 23 column in the Toronto Sun by Angelo Persichilli.

Persichilli, in blue-sky mode, so to speak, is reminding readers how Hargrove enraged his old pals in the NDP during the last couple of elections by urging New Democrat-leaning voters to cast ballots for the Liberals if that's what it took to defeat the Conservatives. And so, he writes:

The NDP leader should be very worried about the erosion of support for his party towards the Liberals. Rae's victory brings the "strategic vote" notion of Buzz Hargrove to a higher level. Now not just votes, but also leaders, are marching from the NDP toward the Liberals. Many New Democrats might be tired of seeing their party being the conscience of Canadians between elections who then send the Liberals or Conservatives into power when the actual election comes.

The only thing missing to close the circle would be an announcement from two former NDP bigwigs that they were running for the Liberals: CAW president Buzz Hargrove in Toronto-Danforth, challenging Layton, and the mayor of Toronto, David Miller, as a Liberal candidate in Trinity-Spadina (against Olivia Chow).

And then, bingo, the takeover of the Liberal Party is a done deal.

So, that's all it takes these days, it seems to start rumours on Parliament Hill: the last couple of paragraphs in a Toronto Sun column. Nonetheless, I'm sure we'll be checking them out more today, just in case, with Hargrove and Miller themselves.

Update: A senior Liberal has also this morning pointed out another flaw in the Persichilli scenario. There is already a nominated Liberal candidate in Trinity-Spadina. His name is Tony Ianno, the man who held that riding from 1993 to 2006 and the former minister of state for families and caregivers.

Harper followed tradition with by-election no-shows

Before and after this week's by-elections, there seemed to be some suggestion from pundits and commentators that the Conservatives had written them off -- because Prime Minister Stephen Harper didn't do any campaigning.

It is, in fact, very rare for prime ministers to campaign in by-elections, at least in recent years. Jean Chrétien made a point of avoiding any foray into ridings during by-election campaigns. Here's a little snippet, for instance, from a story in late 2002 about why former finance minister Paul Martin was out campaigning in Quebec by-elections:

Jim Munson, a spokesman for the PMO, said there are no plans for Mr. Chrétien to travel to the ridings, but that is in keeping with the tradition of the prime minister not intervening in byelections.

The last prime minister to do by-election campaigning was Brian Mulroney, and as I read through the Star's records on this, I see he did so against the advice of old political hands. Veteran Conservative Norman Atkins was quoted as saying as far back as 1986: "I don't think it helps for prime ministers to go into by-elections."

Mulroney also campaigned fiercely in 1988 to get his old friend Lucien Bouchard -- lured back from his ambassador's post in Paris -- a seat in Lac St. Jean. And we know how that turned out.

Election Prediction Project weighs in

The Election Prediction Project, which had been describing two of today's by-elections as too close to call, has finally weighed in with forecasts. It says the Conservatives will win Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River while the Liberals will win Vancouver Quadra.

Toronto Centre and Willowdale are still forecast to go to the Liberals.

The site, which relies on intelligence from folks on the ground in the ridings, was 90 per cent correct in its predictions for the 2006 election.

Greens may have NDP shedding tears in their beers

It seems kind of a lame pun - which means it'll probably be everywhere - but when the results start pouring out tonight in the St. Patrick's Day by-elections, watch for the Greens.

Specifically, watch for any ridings where the Greens come in ahead of the New Democrats, notably in Ontario.

Late last year and early this year, Decima was tracking significant strength for the Greens in a perhaps surprising place - the so-called 905 suburban belt around Toronto.

It's also worth remembering that the Greens culled 8 per cent of the popular vote in the recent Ontario election and that Elizabeth May, the federal Greens leader, placed second in the London North Centre by-election in 2006.

If they do well in Ontario again tonight, what we have here is a trend, and given that the Greens tend to take support from every party, it makes them a bit of a wild card in any future general election. And the NDP should be worried.

The Green Party has been conducting its own polling in a few of the ridings holding by-elections tonight. These polls, conducted by phone from March 8-10, show that voters may be thinking of doing a little wearing of the Greens on St. Patrick's Day.

Here are the results of the Willowdale phone poll (761 voters):

36.8% Liberal Party
15.6% Conservative Party
12.0% Green Party
6.6% New Democratic Party
29.0% Undecided

And here are the results of the phone poll in Quadra (648 voters):

24.5% Liberal Party
18.8% Green Party
17.1% Conservative Party
13.3% New Democratic Party
26.2% undecided

This week's theme: Election?

Few Canadians probably realize that the Conservatives run Parliament on a "theme of the week" basis. This government loves stuff like this — props, themes, catch phrases — all the standard tools of marketing. One sometimes wonders if Larry Tate and Darren Stevens from Bewitched are the real brains behind the communications operation in Ottawa. Since last fall, for instance, we’ve had "getting the job done on justice and tax cuts" week and "effective economic leadership" week — all duly announced in advance each Thursday in the House at 3 p.m. by Government House Leader Peter Van Loan.

Next week’s theme, announced by Van Loan yesterday, is "confidence in the Conservative government week."

It’s just idle musing right now, but there are some signs that Liberals — emboldened by the developing scandal over the Chuck Cadman controversy — might just be thinking that maybe it is time to say they have no confidence in the Harper government.

Halton MP Garth Turner is more than hinting at it. "I think we ought to be thinking about bringing these guys down," Turner told reporters. (Turner, incidentally, had a not-bad rebuttal in the Commons today, in reply to a rather sanctimonious rant from Conservative MP James Moore. Moore was taking a tack along the lines of "I knew Chuck Cadman and you’re no Conservative" when Turner shot back: "Mr. Speaker, if that is how they treat their dear friends I am glad I am not on that side of the aisle any more.")

At any rate, have a look at the transcript of Liberal MP Mark Holland, talking to reporters after Question Period today:

Mark Holland: We are deeply concerned by what we have seen over the last number of days. This is a huge story. I think we’re all taken by the explosive allegations. Listening to the Prime Minister’s words on tape where he said that there was a financial consideration that was offered to Chuck Cadman is, is unbelievable, it’s devastating, it goes right into the office of the Prime Minister and it may very well be something that we have to, to consider the future of this Parliament about. But that’s not a decision that’s been made yet.

Question: Is it enough in your mind though to pull the plug?

Mark Holland: Well I think we have to talk about it as a caucus. I think that we’re reeling from the shock of this. I think all Canadians are completely taken by, by the size of this. I mean, this is incredible. This is monumental news and I think we need to digest that and to talk about it with our constituents before making a decision of that gravity.

Some reporters, like me, might be using this weekend to get our heads around the idea of a possible election kickoff next week.

Don Valley West

On Sunday afternoon this weekend, Liberals in Don Valley West choose their candidate for the next election. This race has been a source of intense interest for partisans in Toronto ever since the popular and well-liked MP, John Godfrey, announced before Christmas that he wouldn't be running again. It's popular, naturally, because the winning candidate has a pretty good shot at becoming an MP.

For a while there, it looked like the field would be very crowded with candidates, but in recent days, it's narrowed down to just five. The field got significantly smaller this week when Deborah Coyne withdrew from the race. Coyne is a constitutional expert, who twice ran against Jack Layton in Toronto-Danforth for the Liberals. She's also the mother of the late Pierre Trudeau's only daughter, born in 1991.

I mention that bit about Trudeau because not many people noticed that the 16-year-old Sarah Coyne actually made what I believe are her first comments to the media recently, talking to CP's Joan Bryden about her mom's campaign in Don Valley West. Sarah Coyne was explaining to Bryden that she didn't like the way the race was being fought with dubious membership sales.

"It makes me want to be more involved because I feel like there should be a change made if this kind of thing is going on," she said. (The complaints about the race may also explain why Coyne is out of it.) Here's a copy of the full story, as it appeared on the Macleans web site.

Back to Don Valley West and the Sunday meeting.

Coyne threw her support to Rob Oliphant, a United Church minister who was also an adviser to Michael Ignatieff's leadership campaign. Actually, it's looking like a pretty spirited contest between Oliphant and former Liberal MP Sam Bulte. Other candidates include Jonathan Mousley, a senior economist with the Ontario government, Ian Cameron, a seniors' advocate, and Mohammad Ijaz, a local business person.

UPDATE (March 3): Rob Oliphant, the United Church minister and former Ignatieff adviser, won the race to be the next Liberal candidate in Don Valley West.