What would Sheila do?

Canadians think of themselves as followers of U.S. political trends. But as a matter of fact, there are Canadian precedents for Hillary Clinton's tenaciousness in the presidential race - especially as the lone, female candidate.

In 2003, recall, no one seemed to understand why Sheila Copps was staying in the Liberal leadership race, given Paul Martin's lock on victory.

In 2006, Liberal leadership candidate Martha Hall-Findlay hung on to the bitter end, even though it was clear she had no hopes of winning. She was the only woman in the race by the time the convention rolled around at the end of that year.

Perhaps Clinton might want to check in with Copps and Hall-Findlay for advice about whether to keep toughing it out - as the only woman, up against insurmountable odds.

The results here have been mixed.

Copps, as it turns out, wasn't rewarded for her persistence, having to wage a losing fight for her own Hamilton riding in the immediate aftermath of the 2003 leadership.

Hall-Findlay has fared a little better. Liberal leader Stéphane Dion appointed her as the candidate in Willowdale, which she won in a March by-election.

Why politics is just one step removed from Grade 3

An NDP blogger (use Firefox to view) has launched a leadership faceoff on Facebook, the social networking site. The goal is to amass supporters for Jack Layton and surpass the Facebook friends of Liberal leader Stéphane Dion. Or, as Ravijo the blogger says: "It's a game called 'let's embarass the Liberal party.'"

At the time of this posting, Layton has 10,159 friends on his Facebook site; Dion has 10,708. Prime Minister Stephen Harper, by the way, has 8,706.

In desperate times, Liberals' thoughts turn to ... Martin?

If you happen to find yourself sitting with a bunch of Liberals these days, and looking for a new way to talk about the mess things are in, try this hypothetical, conversation-provoking question:

In hindsight, was it really such a good idea for Paul Martin to have resigned on election night in 2006?

It was a long-time, well-respected Liberal, not one of Martin's close circle, who first floated that to me this week. As he sees it, the Liberals might well be back in power right now, or on the way back, if Martin hadn't up and walked away when he lost government.

Here's the thinking: when Martin took over in 2003, he talked about staying for 10 years. The party was tired of internal leadership wars, no would-be successors were in the wings, and the Martinites had a stranglehold on the entire organization.

Then, abruptly, Martin was gone and so was the whole infrastructure of the party. The Liberals were not ready, in terms of money, organization or spirit, to conduct a leadership race.

But they had a contest, which further drained the party coffers, created new divisions, and all among a field of too-green candidates - most of whom could have done with a couple more years' seasoning before running to succeed Martin. Bob Rae could have got himself installed in the Commons (that's only going to happen next week), ditto for Gerard Kennedy (still no seat), while Ignatieff could have gained some more experience as an MP and Dion could have improved his English, and so on.

Had Martin stayed and presided over some of this succession planning, he may have been able to revive Liberal fortunes while making a phased, less-abrupt departure. And now, as the economy looms as a major issue, Martin could have dusted off his old credentials as the deficit-slaying finance minister and helped present the Liberals to voters as the best-positioned party to handle an economic downturn.

Of course, this is all 20-20 hindsight and there are numerous flaws in the logic, but it does get one thinking. At the very least, it may show how desperate Liberals are feeling right now.

This week's theme: Election?

Few Canadians probably realize that the Conservatives run Parliament on a "theme of the week" basis. This government loves stuff like this — props, themes, catch phrases — all the standard tools of marketing. One sometimes wonders if Larry Tate and Darren Stevens from Bewitched are the real brains behind the communications operation in Ottawa. Since last fall, for instance, we’ve had "getting the job done on justice and tax cuts" week and "effective economic leadership" week — all duly announced in advance each Thursday in the House at 3 p.m. by Government House Leader Peter Van Loan.

Next week’s theme, announced by Van Loan yesterday, is "confidence in the Conservative government week."

It’s just idle musing right now, but there are some signs that Liberals — emboldened by the developing scandal over the Chuck Cadman controversy — might just be thinking that maybe it is time to say they have no confidence in the Harper government.

Halton MP Garth Turner is more than hinting at it. "I think we ought to be thinking about bringing these guys down," Turner told reporters. (Turner, incidentally, had a not-bad rebuttal in the Commons today, in reply to a rather sanctimonious rant from Conservative MP James Moore. Moore was taking a tack along the lines of "I knew Chuck Cadman and you’re no Conservative" when Turner shot back: "Mr. Speaker, if that is how they treat their dear friends I am glad I am not on that side of the aisle any more.")

At any rate, have a look at the transcript of Liberal MP Mark Holland, talking to reporters after Question Period today:

Mark Holland: We are deeply concerned by what we have seen over the last number of days. This is a huge story. I think we’re all taken by the explosive allegations. Listening to the Prime Minister’s words on tape where he said that there was a financial consideration that was offered to Chuck Cadman is, is unbelievable, it’s devastating, it goes right into the office of the Prime Minister and it may very well be something that we have to, to consider the future of this Parliament about. But that’s not a decision that’s been made yet.

Question: Is it enough in your mind though to pull the plug?

Mark Holland: Well I think we have to talk about it as a caucus. I think that we’re reeling from the shock of this. I think all Canadians are completely taken by, by the size of this. I mean, this is incredible. This is monumental news and I think we need to digest that and to talk about it with our constituents before making a decision of that gravity.

Some reporters, like me, might be using this weekend to get our heads around the idea of a possible election kickoff next week.

Oxymoron watch: "Liberal opposition"

Today's lingering question is whether Stephane Dion and his Liberals, by supporting the budget, have "jumped the shark."

The phrase is borrowed from pop culture and an 11-year-old website that documents the precise point when a sitcom becomes so ridiculous that you know its days on air are numbered. On the old show Happy Days, it happened when Fonzie water-skied over a shark. Hence the name.

So, is this the moment? You have to go all the way back to Lester Pearson's days in the 1960s to find another minority government that managed to deliver three budgets with the help of the opposition.

Sooner or later, one presumes, the phrase "Liberal opposition" is going to start seeming a bit like an oxymoron. Maybe you can say that an opposition party jumps the shark when it appears this way on Rick Mercer's show. (See Message from the Liberals.)

Outside the Liberal caucus room today, Senator David Smith, one of the campaign co-chairs, kept saying that the leader would defeat Harper's government when "strategically, we're in the best position to win."

Logically, however, that must mean Liberals aren't in that position now, right?

"Well, I'm not saying that!" Smith said. "It's when you're best in a position to win!"