The NDP aims for the heart of the middle class

The federal New Democrats were quickest off the mark on the ongoing issue of bank-machine fees earlier this year, even drafting a bill against them.

And now the NDP is going after this idea of charging cellphone customers for text messages.

It's a petition campaign — "Stop the Text Message Grab."

Both of these are smart gambits, designed to get the NDP into the fray over who best speaks for the middle class in Canada. This is precious electoral territory, and Conservatives have big designs on those voters, too.

Meanwhile, however, in the current issue of This Magazine, James Laxer has taken another big whack at NDP leader Jack Layton. Laxer has long been a vocal critic of the way the New Democrats have banded with the Conservatives to label the Liberals as the number-one enemy of both.

In this latest essay, Laxer argues that Canada needs the NDP's ideas more than ever these days, but the party itself is too preoccupied with electoral strategy and gains.

Laxer ends his piece on an optimistic note, however: "I haven't given up hope for Jack Layton in all this. Whatever his shortcomings, Layton is by far the most accomplished leader in federal politics today, with a program that makes far more sense for Canadians than the alternatives.... An upheaval could do him good, but don't count on him to start it. That's up to the rest of us."

 

Women in politics

The next federal election is shaping up to be a good one for women candidates, according to this impressive website, which is keeping track of nominations in all parties.

The New Democrats, so far, have a whopping 40 per cent women candidates. The Liberals, true to Stéphane Dion's promise to run women in at least one-third of the ridings across Canada, are at 37 per cent.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, are stuck back at 17 per cent in terms of women candidates, but they can boast the largest number of candidates nominated so far overall - 262 out of 308, or 85 per cent.

For some time now, most pundits have been predicting that the next election campaign will be a nasty one. But people have also been predicting that the tone of politics will improve when more women enter the fray. It may be interesting to see which prediction turns out to be true.

Layton stands in Obama's shadow

As we reported here a while back, NDP Leader Jack Layton will be in Denver this August for the Democratic convention. But that's not the only event this summer where he'll be standing in Barack Obama's shadow. Tomorrow, a day after Obama's speech to the Steelworkers' convention in Las Vegas, the NDP leader will be on hand as well.

“Unions that reach beyond borders, like the United Steelworkers, have a great deal of power to force change that will make our world a better place,”  Layton says, in a news release just issued by the NDP.

“By forming a united front, the steelworkers will have the ability to push international governments to act on issues like climate change, as well as to work together with their international partners for trade deals that are better for their members.”

Alexa's rare act won't be back

Alexa McDonough announced today she is not running for re-election.

She made the announcement 11 years to the day since the 1997 election, when she first came to the Commons as an MP, after a respected time as head of the Nova Scotia NDP, and after being elected federal NDP leader in 1995.

She was a rarity in federal politics -- a woman leader, though she followed Audrey McLaughlin, who was the first woman elected to lead a major federal party. Though she helped revitalize the NDP after its bruising 1993 showing, when it lost official party status, McDonough still couldn't get the party the breakthrough it wanted. The current leader, Jack Layton, has most definitely improved the NDP's standing, but none have done better than Ed Broadbent did in the 1988 general election, with 43 seats. That's still the high-water mark for the NDP.

It's worth noting too, that no women have risen up to assume leadership of a party in the Commons since Alexa's reign. It's almost as if the big parties said in the 1990s, let's give this a try, and abandoned the project when none won the job of prime minister. (Kim Campbell was Canada's first woman prime minister, to be sure, but she was thrown out, along with the rest of her party, in the 1993 election.)

The Greens have Elizabeth May, who, like McDonough, is trying to build her party from a Nova Scotia riding, but she still doesn't have a seat in the House yet.

My most vivid McDonough memory isn't really about her. In the 1997 campaign, I was on the road with then-Conservative leader Jean Charest and landed in Halifax. I decided to go door-to-door with then-Liberal MP Mary Clancy, to see if it was true that Liberal fortunes were collapsing in the Atlantic. (It was -- the Liberals were wiped out in Nova Scotia and lost seats all over the East Coast.)

Clancy was in a seniors' residence and many people were politely rebuffing her. One elderly woman, however, heard Mary out, nodding politely as she stood at the door in her bathrobe.

"That's lovely, Mary," the woman said. "But I won't be voting for you."

Clancy gulped and said: "May I ask why?"

The elderly woman at the door looked surprised. "Because I'm Alexa's mother."

Taking out the trash talk

Over the past weekend, CBC Radio's The House performed a bold experiment. It featured a panel of MPs, talking on the economy, but set ground rules: no using the airwaves to trash your opponents. The House host Kathleen Petty warned participants that producers would simply edit out any negative remarks directed at other parties.

You can listen to the result here.

The show is inviting the audience to call/write and say whether these new rules of engagement are welcome.

This may be an idea whose time has come. Anecdotally, you hear a lot of fed-up talk around Ottawa these days about the state of these panel discussions. When MPs or strategists simply come on the air to recite a list of "talking points" generated by central party command, the result seems to be simply noise.

For fun, I took the transcript of a panel discussion yesterday on CTV's Question Period (see below) and did a similar type of editing. By my rough count, you lose about half the number of words in this discussion if you get rid of the snipes against others.

CTV Question Period Transcript for Sunday, May 4, 2008 – MPs panel

OLIVER: The Prime Minister says the economy's in good shape, don't worry. However, the Governor of the Bank of Canada says we could be into a slowdown for a whole year. Which is it, and what are the plans of our political parties to do anything about it? Well we're joined from Calgary by the Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Finance Ted Menzies who's standing by in Toronto, John McCallum a former banker who's now the Liberal finance critic, and Peggy Nash who is the industry critic for the NDP. Mr. Menzies, let me get to you first. Which is it? Is the economy in pretty good shape or are we heading into a recession?

TED MENZIES (Parliamentary Secretary – Finance): Well certainly the economy is in good shape and I would agree with the prime minister, but we can't help but look across the border and see the difficult challenges that the Americans are facing. And we're very dependent on trade with the Americans so we need to be cautious. And that's why in the fall economic statement, the Finance Minister addressed those issues and put in $60 billion worth of tax cuts to stimulate the economy, and businesses reacted. We heard positive comment from all across this country, from industry groups and from private individuals, that those tax breaks stimulated new business, stimulated new jobs. We're looking at, since this government has taken power, nearly three-quarters of a million, over three-quarters of a million net new jobs. And yes people are, jobs are being rationalized. There's people that are losing their jobs, but there's over three-quarters of a million net new jobs in all regions all across this country.

OLIVER: Alright, Mr. Menzies has brought us straight to tax cuts, Mr. McCallum. In a slowdown, are tax cuts the answer, and then I'm going to get you to answer the same question Ms Nash.

JOHN MCCALLUM (Liberal Finance Critic): Well I think Ted has a bit of a Pollyanna view. And I would argue that the basic problem is that this government spent like crazy over the last couple of years when the economy was strong, and now when we're looking at a weak economy the fiscal cupboard is bare and some are even saying we're in deficit, and so there's very little fiscal room now thanks to their overspending during good times. And the other point I would make is it's extremely unhelpful when Ontario, which is bearing the brunt of this storm, the government keeps attacking Ontario calling, saying that it's the last place to invest or that Dalton McGuinty is the small man of confederation. I think Canadians want their governments to work together, especially in Ontario when times are difficult, and this government should work with Ontario and stop trashing the business climate of Ontario.

OLIVER: Go ahead, Ms Nash?

PEGGY NASH (NDP MP): Well, you know, Craig, this week we had three different studies that came out that told us some pretty troubling news on Tuesday. We heard that just so far this year Canada has lost 55,000 manufacturing jobs, and that adds on to the hundreds of thousands we've already lost. On Wednesday we heard that the economy is stalled and in fact is shrinking, and on Thursday we had the StatsCan report that looked at the last generation, the last 25 years, and found that those who are very wealthy are getting wealthier, those at the bottom are falling further and further behind, and those in the middle are working harder, longer just to tread water, just to stay in place. So I don't think that the government's handling the economy well at all. I think Mr. Harper has turned his back on the manufacturing crisis. He's turned his back on Ontario. And he's turned his back on the real pressing needs that certainly people in my community are telling me that they're facing. They've got the lowest savings in their generation, they've got the highest debt in the country's history, and they're really struggling.

OLIVER: I want to get back to Mr. Menzies. There is a real economy and then there's the political economy, Mr. Menzies. Is your government worried about Ontario where you need votes and a third of the ridings in the country are there if you have any chance of getting a majority at all, you're going to get them with the kind of answers you've got about the Ontario economy, because that's what the problem is, isn't it?

MENZIES: Well let's talk about reality, as I stated, and Peggy didn't seem to hear my comment, that we have over three-quarters of a million net new jobs in this country. Jobs are changing.

NASH: But, Mr. Menzies, when you lose your job at General Motors like a thousand people did this week, if you lose a thousand jobs at General Motors, what's a job at Wal-Mart?

MENZIES: Craig, I...

OLIVER: Okay, we better get Mr. Menzies, I want to let Mr. Menzies make his point here.

MENZIES: Thank you. It's very important to realize that no one that graduates from high school today would expect to stay in that same job. Jobs are changing. People are moving. Eighty percent of these over three-quarter of a million new jobs are high paying jobs. People have employment. They're moving to new jobs. They're commuting to better stronger jobs. But to go back to Mr. McCallum's comment about spending, let's take into account what the Liberals have suggested we should do. Just last week, I believe it was on your show, Craig, the leader of the official opposition suggested that we should put a higher tax on gasolines and heating fuels. That's not what's going to help Canadians.

MCCALLUM: Actually he didn't say that.

MENZIES: That's not going to help Canadians survive through this summer and through a winter of cold conditions.

OLIVER: Mr. McCallum, I guess what I'd like to hear you say is a comment on this whole business of tax cuts. Is that what Ontario needs as its economy slips?

MCCALLUM: Well it's in the liberal DNA not to go back into deficit after we got rid of the huge Conservative deficit in the mid-90s, so everything I say is subject to not going back into deficit. But I think manufacturing is hemorrhaging jobs, and it's not much comfort to those losing their jobs to be told that jobs are going elsewhere. And I think we have already announced, subject to money being available, a one billion fund to help support the manufacturing sector. Much of that would be in Ontario.The government is ideologically opposed to measures of that kind. But I think when we have US Governors in the southern states giving huge subsidies to lure our companies and our jobs out of Canada we have to support our manufacturing sector as well, and this is a big difference between what we would do as a government and what this government is refusing to do.

OLIVER: The Bank of Canada Governor says we are into a slowdown, Miss Nash. Who's right here, because the Prime Minister suggests things are in great shape, or is it just Ontario we're talking about and we've got one nation and two economies, Ms Nash?

NASH: Well I think if you're in the commodities sector, you know if you're in the oil and gas sector things are looking pretty rosy. It's not only Ontario that's in manufacturing. If you're in a paper mill in British Columbia, and that mill is closing, you feel the impact the same as someone in Ontario. But because Ontario, and Quebec to a lesser degree, but Ontario especially is the manufacturing heartland, here's where we're really feeling the impact of the manufacturing crisis. And just on the issue of tax cuts, you know, Mr. Dion goaded the Prime Minister to cut taxes further and faster so he did and the Liberals supported that but, you know, it's the wrong way to go. What that has done, it's rewarded those very profitable companies that are already doing very well. Taken money out of the national purse that we ought to be spending to assist the manufacturing sector, but also meet people's needs in housing, social services, health care. That's what we should be doing.

OLIVER: Mr. Menzies, let me ask you about something I think you said, or I think it's where you're going, if you're out of work in Ontario and the economy of the west is booming move west where there are jobs. Isn't that in effect what you're saying? And I'm not being critical of that.

MENZIES: Well that isn't what I suggested at all. When I'm suggesting that people may travel to a job it's a short distance. But let's look at the facts. There's over 85,000 jobs in the province of Ontario that are producing products for the oil and gas sector in Saskatchewan and Alberta. That's where the jobs are going. They're going into building houses, into building new infrastructure in Ontario. They may not be building cars, but they have jobs. They have good paying jobs that are supporting the Canadian economy.

OLIVER:Quickly now, Mr. McCallum and Ms. Nash, you have to keep it quick, what are the chances that the Conservatives may suffer in Ontario politically, Mr. McCallum?

MCCALLUM: Well I think the fact that they keep insulting Ontario and attacking Dalton McGuinty and saying he's the small man of confederation rather than working with Ontario is one strike against them, and the fact that they have nothing to support the manufacturing sector having used up all the money during good times, they have nothing left to give and they're ideologically opposed to helping manufacturing anyway, and there's no consolation to those manufacturing people losing jobs to tell them there's jobs in Alberta. So I think they have two strikes against them.

OLIVER: Since then, by the way, the Prime Minister did say some nicy nicy things about Dalton McGuinty. But, Ms Nash, finally you?

NASH: Well, you know, we've seen 25 years mostly boom times and I think that boom was squandered. We didn't make the right decisions to invest where we needed to invest, both in infrastructure and in defending our value-added sectors, the manufacturing sector, and those that ignore that today I think do so at their peril. Canada cannot afford to lose its manufacturing sector. We're seeing the impact. It's hurting people very deeply.

OLIVER: That's it. That's got to be it, and I want to thank all three of you for giving us your time this Sunday. We appreciate it very much.

MCCALLUM: Thank you, Craig.

NASH: Thanks, Craig.

MENZIES: Thanks, Craig.

OLIVER: Just ahead, our journalists and our weekly cheers and jeers section.

Miller time? Not yet

Just to put that final nail in the coffin of the rumours about Buzz Hargrove and David Miller running for the Liberals in the next election, it should be noted here that Miller brushed off the idea yesterday with a flat: "It's not true."

In talking to me for another story - about his bid to get handguns banned in Canada - Miller said he remains committed to the idea of being a three-term mayor and he has no plans at present to enter the federal domain. He's only on his second term at present.

He's not ruling out the idea in the long term, though, and he was just about to go into his French lesson as he hung up the phone.

Would he run for the Liberals, though, or the New Democrats? I guess we'll have to wait and see.

By-elections giving Layton pause?

We here at the Star aren't sure what to make of the fact that NDP leader Jack Layton turned down Richard Brennan's request for an interview yesterday. We were even more perplexed when Layton did manage to turn up, via broadcast feed from Washington, on Don Newman's Politics broadcast.

Newman tried several times to pull Layton off his message track, which seemed to be that the NDP was far more interested in talking about its September, 2007, win in Outremont, rather than this week's slump in the by-elections.

Here's one statistic from that evening that may be the source of some internal strategic discussions at NDP headquarters right now, even if Layton is a bit shy about talking to the Star right now.

In the three urban ridings where by-elections were held on Monday night, the Greens and NDP collected roughly the SAME number of votes.

The NDP won 3,299 votes in Toronto Centre, 1,084 votes in Willowdale and 4,064 votes in Vancouver Quadra. Grand total: 8,447 votes.

The Greens won 3,263 votes in Toronto Centre, 1,325 in Willowdale and 3,792 votes in Vancouver Quadra. Grand total: 8,380 votes.

That's a difference of less than 100 votes.

Greens may have NDP shedding tears in their beers

It seems kind of a lame pun - which means it'll probably be everywhere - but when the results start pouring out tonight in the St. Patrick's Day by-elections, watch for the Greens.

Specifically, watch for any ridings where the Greens come in ahead of the New Democrats, notably in Ontario.

Late last year and early this year, Decima was tracking significant strength for the Greens in a perhaps surprising place - the so-called 905 suburban belt around Toronto.

It's also worth remembering that the Greens culled 8 per cent of the popular vote in the recent Ontario election and that Elizabeth May, the federal Greens leader, placed second in the London North Centre by-election in 2006.

If they do well in Ontario again tonight, what we have here is a trend, and given that the Greens tend to take support from every party, it makes them a bit of a wild card in any future general election. And the NDP should be worried.

The Green Party has been conducting its own polling in a few of the ridings holding by-elections tonight. These polls, conducted by phone from March 8-10, show that voters may be thinking of doing a little wearing of the Greens on St. Patrick's Day.

Here are the results of the Willowdale phone poll (761 voters):

36.8% Liberal Party
15.6% Conservative Party
12.0% Green Party
6.6% New Democratic Party
29.0% Undecided

And here are the results of the phone poll in Quadra (648 voters):

24.5% Liberal Party
18.8% Green Party
17.1% Conservative Party
13.3% New Democratic Party
26.2% undecided

Prime Time for Jack Layton

New Democratic Party leader Jack Layton will be on CNN tonight, on the Lou Dobbs show, to talk about the Canada-Obama affair. U.S. media are all over this story today.

Which explains why Liberal leader Stephane Dion kicked off Question Period in the House today with . . . the Cadman-bribe controversy.