Dispatches from the separatist witch hunt

Posted by Joanna Smith, Ottawa Bureau

Last week, the Toronto Star (specifically, political editor Colin MacKenzie, Ottawa bureau chief Bruce Campion-Smith and I) decided to solicit the views of the Quebec NDP caucus on the political future of Quebec and whether they had changed over time and, in particular, provide them with the opportunity to put on the record any past memberships in the Bloc Québécois and other federal or provincial parties.

The goal, as we noted in the questionnaire emailed to the 58 MPs (excluding Interim Leader Nycole Turmel, whose history is now well known), was to gain a better understanding of their perspectives in the hope of sparking a greater discussion on the issue. It was also, obviously, to try and avoid any more surprises like this one.

The exercise resulted in this story, which, to be honest and overly idealistic, was disappointing (although understandable given the heated reaction to the Turmel news, as NDP MP Pat Martin rightfully pointed out). Contrary to what Ottawa-based Le Devoir columnist Manon Corneiller wrote about my story two days before I actually wrote it, I was not on a "witch hunt". I wanted to learn directly from the MPs, and not from some future leak from the Bloc Québécois or some other source with an obvious agenda, where they stood in the past, where they stand now, and hear their explanation for any change of mind.

This is partly because my main issue with Turmel is not that she was a member of a sovereigntist party, or that she was a sovereigntist in the past (especially since, as I discovered while reporting on her role shaping NDP policy on Quebec in the late 1990s, it seems she was not). It is that she did not find that information relevant, even when asked during the election campaign about her 2006 endorsement of Bloc candidates as president of the Public Service Alliance of Canada and appears not to understand just how big a deal that is outside Quebec.

But in a broader way, it was because I believe it is time for an adult conversation about this issue. As a native Quebecer (and a proud one, at that), I do have a grasp of how things are different in Quebec. I am also keenly aware of how many people in the rest of Canada know or understand very little about it. I remember meeting a new co-worker on the first day of my new job in Toronto, who a scant three minutes after we exchanged names asked me if I was a "separatist". I also remember hiking in British Columbia when a man who had just moved there from China told me, in a thick, halting accent, that I spoke "English very good for a lady from Quebec". Don't even get me started on how many times I have had to explain what a CEGEP is.

I have had many, many heated debates with friends who see things I would call grey as either black or white. Through talking about it, we have gained a greater understanding of where the other person is coming from. I do believe there are more people like me out there, and more people like my friends.

As the NDP has been quick to point out, the only way to grow a party in Quebec is to attract voters who have supported sovereignty and may continue to support it now. I agree and I wouldn't even call that an opinion. It's called arithmetic. I think part of that conversation should involve the people at the very centre of this shift in the federal political landscape of Quebec (the MP themselves, who are elected officials, after all) taking the time -- and maybe also a leap of faith -- to talk about their own shifts in thought.

As Robert Asselin, assistant director of the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa, said when I interviewed him for Saturday's story, if the NDP believes it is the new bridge between Quebec and the rest of Canada, then "prove it". Or, at the very least, talk about it.

Even though you passed my deadline and I wrote a story about how you didn't want to talk to me, all is forgiven. Feel free talk about it at any time.

THE QUESTIONNAIRE

Dear New Democrat MP from Quebec:

The Toronto Star is canvassing the Quebec caucus of the Official Opposition on the issue of national unity and the unique political landscape in the province.

We would like learn about and understand more about your views in the hope of sparking a greater discussion on this topic, so please take some time to answer the following questions:

1.       Have you ever been a member of another federal or provincial party? If so, which one?

2.       Are you still a member? If so, when did you join? If not, when did you quit?

3.       Have you ever voted for the Bloc Québécois? If so, why? If not, why not?

4.       Has the Bloc Québécois been good for Quebec?

5.       Would you describe yourself as a sovereigntist, a federalist or something else? Please explain your choice. If you have not always described yourself this way, why not?

6.       Did you vote in the 1980 and/or 1995 referendums on Quebec sovereignty? How did you vote and why?

7.       The Sherbrooke Declaration says the NDP would recognize a majority decision (of 50 per cent plus one) of the Quebec people in the event of a referendum on the political status of Quebec. What do you think this means? Do you agree with it?

Please email your responses to Ottawa Bureau Chief Bruce Campion-Smith and/or reporter Joanna Smith, who covers the NDP in Ottawa.

We would appreciate a response by Wednesday, August 10 at 12 p.m. Eastern Time.

Please feel free to respond in French if you would prefer.

Please do not hesitate to contact either of us with any questions or comments.

AN ASIDE

I want to give credit to those NDP MPs from Quebec who, in less controversial times, have been candid on this issue when I asked them about it.

One of them is Alexandre Boulerice (Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie), who voted 'yes' in the 1995 referendum but now considers himself an "autonomiste" who is unconcerned with the national question as he focuses on practical issues like Employment Insurance and pensions. He is also a member of Quebec Solidaire, which champions sovereignty, but explained it is because he is a left-wing union guy and he agrees with their other policies.

Then there is Laurin Liu (Rivière-des-Mille-Îles), who I followed around for a while, who I thought showed some moxy when she explained why she is a federalist:

“I’m a federalist mostly because of my age,” says Liu when asked about how she personally viewed the future of Quebec. “I was born in 1990. I didn’t live through those crises, really, and I’ve always seen Canada as a unified country.”

 

What about those NDP candidates? Questions & Answers (sort of) with Jack Layton

Posted by Joanna Smith, Ottawa Bureau 

New Democrat Leader Jack Layton was under fire again on Thursday after it was reported that Ruth Ellen Brosseau, the candidate for the Quebec riding of Berthier—Maskinongé, does not speak French very well even though she is running to represent a French-speaking community. Brosseau was already in the news for having chosen to work at a student bar at Carleton University in Ottawa – and then head to Las Vegas on vacation – instead of knocking on doors in the riding. Another Quebec candidate is reportedly off on a trip to France. 

Layton responded to questions about the controversy by saying – repeatedly – that he is proud of his team of candidates and that some people had family plans they could not break. You might read these remarks in the newspaper or hear them on radio or the television, but I would like to give you a better sense of what it was like to be there when Layton was speaking them in Yellowknife, N.W.T. on Thursday. 

The next time you read a line in a news story about a politician deflecting, or outright refusing, to answer a question, you might have a better idea of what that means.

After running through the latest stories about missing candidates, the first reporter wanted his reaction to the new story about Brosseau. The reporter also wanted to know whether Layton was concerned that what happened to Mario Dumont, the former leader of the Action démocratique du Québec (ADQ), when his party unexpectedly grew their caucus from five to 41 seats – becoming the official opposition – in the 2007 provincial election, only to collapse when Quebecers returned to the polls the following year. 

MEDIA: “In Quebec you’ve got a couple of candidates that have some interesting stories. You heard of course about the woman who took her vacation in Vegas now it turns out she doesn’t speak French and she’s running in a riding which is primarily unilingually French. I would like your reaction to that…. Looking at all of these things together, I wonder if you worry at all that once you form your government or your opposition or whatever you get, that people are going to look at the candidates that you brought with you and do what they did to Mario Dumont and get rid of them all later on?”

JACK LAYTON: “I’m very proud of our team. We have the best and strongest team that we have ever presented in a national election and of course the MPs that we elect as our past record shows, tend to be the hardest working, best performing, members of parliament in the house of commons and we expect that is going to continue and the election is going to be about whether people want to choose change or not and it’s going to be up to Canadians, Quebecers, to make that decision. They can vote for change or they can slip back to the old parties that they voted for before, in which case Ottawa won’t get fixed.”  

That answer had some reporters yelling that he had not answered the harder question.

MEDIA: “The change you’re offering is someone who is running in a Quebec riding who doesn’t even speak French. Can you explain how that is a positive choice for people in Quebec?” 

Layton said he was told the accusation was not true.  Then Layton gave a similar response when asked about the missing candidates by a French-speaking reporter. 

LAYTON (translation): “I am very proud of our team. It is the best team that we have ever presented. The question for citizens is to determine will they vote, will they choose change or will they return to the old choices that have left Ottawa spinning its wheels? It is time to clean things up . . . I have said since the beginning that when we don’t have fixed-date elections, it’s very difficult for people who have made plans for their families, but we have a team that is ready to change things in Ottawa. The question for the voters is do they want change, yes or no?” 

That was not good enough for another reporter, who expressed the frustration many of us were feeling. 

MEDIA: “I’m sorry. Mr. Layton? No. I need you to answer that question in a real way. This is a woman who is applying for a job. That is what she is doing here in this election campaign and she has made a decision – as have a number of other candidates – not to show up for parts of the job interview. You made an allegation to Mr. Ignatieff, during the debate, about being absent from work and now you’re putting up candidates who are absent for a job interview. How is that acceptable to you and to Canadians?”

LAYTON:  “I’m extremely proud of our team. This is a hard-working group of people from all backgrounds. Some of them had family plans that couldn’t be changed and I think a lot of Canadians are going to understand that can happen.”

MEDIA: “So then missing a job interview—

LAYTON: “I’ll let you interrupt me as often as you want, but I’ll try to answer as best I can.”

MEDIA: “But you’re not answering the question. That’s why I’m interrupting you.”

LAYTON: “I’m going to try.”

MEDIA: “That’s why I’m interrupting you.”

LAYTON: “Okay fine. So my view is that people are doing their best to represent the views that we have and are putting forward to Canadians and Canadians have a choice when they go into vote on that ballot, it’s a question of whether they want to vote for change or they want to vote for the same old thing that they’ve had in the past.”

MEDIA: “Or for someone who doesn’t show up for their job interview.”

Layton: “Here’s a person who had some family plans that couldn’t be changed. That happens in life. I’m very proud of our team. It’s a hard-working team that is ready to serve.” 

Another reporter tried again.

 MEDIA: “Mr. Layton, my entire family is on a beach right now while I am here covering the election. At least one of the candidates could do the same thing. I am skipping my vacation to be here with you and cover this important national event. Why can’t your candidates do the same thing?”

LAYTON: “Most of them are here. Some had family plans that couldn’t change. I am very proud of this group. This is a hard-working group of people that represents all backgrounds. They are the type of people that you want to have in the House of Commons because they represent the great diversity of our country and if you want to have change, they are the candidates that you are going to want to vote for.”

On vacation, barely speaks French, and an NDP candidate in Quebec

Posted by Andrew Chung, Quebec Bureau

With the NDP riding high in the polls in Quebec, the quality of its candidates is coming under heavy scrutiny.

There are nearly a dozen students counted among the party's candidates in Quebec. Two others are on vacation, one in France and the other, Ruth-Ellen Brosseau, in Las Vegas. Brosseau works at a pub on Carleton University's campus. The Globe and Mail reported that her boss didn't even know that she was a candidate.

NDP leader Jack Layton, who after a huge rally for the party last weekend in Montreal brushed aside quetsions about unknown candidates, on Wednesday came to their defence. He instead blamed the electoral system, emphasizing that Canada doesn't have fixed election dates.

On Thursday more trouble arose for Layton, again regarding Brosseau, who is the candidate for Berthier-Maskinongé, some 400 kilometres from Ottawa.

La Presse reports that Brosseau barely speaks French.

This could pose a problem since the riding is overwhelmingly French-speaking.

 

 

 

#AskLayton: The multimedia town hall that could have been

Posted by Joanna Smith, Ottawa Bureau

New Democrat Leader Jack Layton sat down for a multimedia town hall at the University of Toronto on  Tuesday evening, where ordinary Canadians were invited to ask him questions in person, over the telephone or online via the social networking site Twitter. The party says about 20,000 people signed up to participate via its website.

The questions put to Layton were a little easy. Would he bring a national child care plan to Canada? What would he do to make post-secondary education more affordable? What about improving pensions and help for seniors? Layton had an answer for every one of them somewhere in his package of stump speeches and policy announcements.

Here was one selected from Twitter:

robertperrier #askLayton #ndp #cdnpoli #elxn41 Jack, you got my vote...but, help me convince my 53-yr old 'conservative' dad, what should I say to him?

The last one from the phone line was from a woman named Joyce:

"I wanted to say how proud I am of the campaign. It's pretty exciting. Every time I turn on the TV, there you are," she said to loud applause and cheers before asking what she could do to help her local NDP candidate get elected.

You get the idea.

Campaign spokeswoman Kathleen Monk says the way the questions were chosen were mixed. The questions from the room were "totally random", with a staffer holding a microphone choosing people who raised their hands. There were about 2,000 people listening on the telephone, and if they wanted to ask a question they pressed 9 and shared it with someone on the other end. "Then we chose a few questions to show a variation of topics, geography, gender, language, etc.," Monk said. Online, about 1,200 people tweeted their questions with the hashtag #AskLayton. "Our staff selected a few that seemed interesting, while paying attention to French and English," said Monk.

I wasn't privy to the unselected questions on the phone (and I couldn't read the minds of people in the room), but I could see the questions that people were submitting via Twitter and I have to say: many of them were far more interesting than the ones the staffers deemed to be so.

I'm including a sample of questions I found that might have prompted Layton into saying something we hve not heard before, just so you can get a sense of what kind of questions real ordinary Canadians (with the caveat that I have not researched these people and so some might not be as ordinary as they appear) wanted to ask Layton. I might end up asking him some of these myself.

jason_metcalfe Deciding how to vote. I respect that you allowed free vote on Gun Reg. On what science are you basing policy? #AskLayton #elxn41 #Cdnpoli

glyn1123 @jacklayton do you or will you have a strategy to increase/engage the number of "mentally challenged" into regular work force? #AskLayton

judymclarty #asklayton If Jack could, would he appoint #ElizabethMay to a cabinet or senior gov't position? She would be an amazing addition to gov't.

justinhine @jacklayton What would you do with the PBO? And would you legislate the gov't to use their estimates with budgets? #asklayton

Vimy1917 #askLayton #ndp #cdnpoli #elxn41 Do think it is time to talk about abolishing monarchy?

lesterleesm #askLayton #ndp #cdnpoli #elxn41 Jack, many of my fellow artists are forced to leave Canada, citing lack of work or support. Your solution?

causerie so what are the chances of mr. layton showing up to his own all-candidate meeting *this* time? #asklayton #elxn41

Stephistan #askLayton #ndp Can you explain how your idea to cut % rates to credit cards won't cause them to deny credit or worse?

marciesharp #AskLayton what is the NDP's stance regarding supply management within the farming industry?

sakelly29 #askLayton #ndp #cdnpoli #elxn41 What will you do to improve living conditions for our native brothers and sisters?

Topp_Gun #AskLayton Is a Liberal-NDP coalition feasible? Which goals from your campaign will suffer most if this happens?

leesabee #askLayton #ndp #cdnpoli #elxn41 Will you revisit changing the words to the national anthem?

pekoe_j #askLayton #ndp #cdnpoli #elxn41What would you do to contribute to the ever growing problem of mental illness among Canada's youths?

Equinamin What would u do to ensure maternal heath and safety in Canada for First Nations women? ps. Urock4ever : ) #askLayton #ndp #cdnpoli #elxn41

frogturtle can we do better than Cap and Trade? #askLayton #ndp #cdnpoli #elxn41

confute Jack, would your government introduce and get passed Prop-Rep legislation in first mandate? How to get past Senate? #AskLayton #elxn41

cyberwuff @jacklayton #askLayton I know you advocate needed #electoralReform. What would you say to NDP/LPC/GPC voters in tight ridings now tho'? :(

CWhite20XX Why do you say Ottawa is Broken while you've been there 4 the last eight years. What have you been doing? #askLayton #ndp #cdnpoli #yegfed

melbeaulne #AskLayton #Cdnpoli #NDP #elxn41 How do you plan lowering violent crimes and (mostly teen) bullying?

davidsflying Do you have any policies to assist Canada's aviation industry, including addressing pilot training costs and infrastructure #asklayton #ndp

martantomkat #elxn41 #asklayton What makes you different from other politicians who promise the moon but then don't deliver on vision or accountability?

Do you have any more? Share them with me on Twitter: @smithjoanna

Would Jack Layton accept the results of a Quebec referendum in favour of sovereignty? Short answer: yes.

Posted by Joanna Smith, Ottawa Bureau

New Democrat Leader Jack Layton was giving an interview to 98.5 FM radio in Montreal on Tuesday morning when the host Paul Arcand opened the line up to questions.

The first question was what politicians would call a "hypothetical": If the NDP formed the government -- majority or minority -- and the Parti Quebecois had a majority government at the provincial level, would Layton accept the decision of a referendum in favour of sovereignty for Quebec?

"La réponse est oui," Layton said, before going on to explain that it is a position the NDP has held for a long time.

The NDP position on Quebec is spelled out in the Sherbrooke Declaration, which the General Council of the NDP Quebec Section adopted in 2005.

Here is the relevant excerpt from the section on Quebec's right ot self-determination (beginning on page 7):

"The NDP is committed to respect, in all its dealings, the Loi Quebecoise sur la Consultation populaire (Quebec Referendum Act). Also, the NDP would recognize a majority decision (50 % +1) of the Quebec people in the event of a referendum on the political status of Quebec. The NDP recognizes as well that the right to self-determination implies that the Assemblee nationale is able to write a referendum question and that the citizens of Quebec are able to answer it freely. It would be to the Federal government to determine its own process in the Spirit of the Supreme Court ruling and under international law, in response to the results of the popular consultation in Quebec." (emphasis added, pp. 7-8)

That last bit is the kicker. Would the NDP accept the decision of a referendum? The short answer Layton gave might not have fully answered the question. It would depend on what the person meant when he asked Layton if he would accept the decision. If he meant that Layton would then move on to negotiations as per the 1998 Supreme Court reference on the secession of Quebec (which led to the Clarity Act), then the answer is still yes. But would he champion what the people of Quebec decided when it came time to negotiate? That question remains unanswered.

Layton was nonetheless clear that he would prefer Quebec remain in Canada, campaigning in the province on promises to extend French-language legislation to federal institutions and a law that would require Supreme Court of Canada justices to be bilingual. Layton has even said he would consider getting Quebec to sign on to the Constitution down the road, although he has stressed it is not a priority he is hearing about from Quebecers.

"I want to create winning conditions for Canada in Quebec, because I am from a federalist party and I would prefer to see a strong Quebec within Canada, because I was born and raised in Quebec and for me it is one of the key elements of our country," Layton said on the radio.

UPDATE: Paul Wells at Maclean's wrote a blog post Wednesday morning about Layton's constitutional musings that included an interview with NDP strategist Brian Topps, where he insists the NDP is not calling for the Clarity Act to be repealed.

But as Joan Bryden at The Canadian Press pointed out in her story Tuesday night, the NDP position on the Quebec referendum in general -- and the Clarity Act in particular -- has been all over the place.

 

 

Olivia Chow defends the women of "Skank TV"

Posted by Joanna Smith, Ottawa Bureau

New Democrat Olivia Chow decided to show a little skin when she appeared alongside her leader – and husband – Jack Layton on a morning show for the newly launched Sun News Network in Toronto on Thursday morning.

Chow, the incumbent NDP candidate in the Toronto riding of Trinity-Spadina, began the hour-long live broadcast wearing a blazer over her sleeveless dress, but something had changed when the show returned from a commercial break.

Chow and co-host Alex Pierson had both ditched the jackets that had been concealing their bare shoulders and arms.

The national media travelling with the NDP campaign noticed the summery wardrobe change right away. After all, what female anchors wear at the controversial new network has been the subject of gossip since it launched on Monday.

Pierson noticed too.

“A curious thing happened on the break. You took your jacket off because you saw that I wasn’t wearing a jacket and I thought this is a funny kind of thing, because the women here of this network, have been – how do I say it? – well, we’ve been beaten up quite a lot about our appearance,” Pierson said.

The morning show host then mentioned a tweet – since deleted – from Maclean’s Washington, D.C. bureau chief Luiza Ch. Savage in which she referred to Sun News as “Skank TV” when expressing her agreement with a column by Tasha Kheiriddin in the National Post.

 
 

Savage has since retracted her use of the word, saying on Twitter: “I did not intend to disparage or insult any individual/s”, then adding in a subsequent tweet that she still agreed with Kheiriddin.

“I want to know, as a woman, what do you think of a comment like this?” Pierson asked Chow. “You are in the spotlight and apparently if you, I guess present yourself like this… Are you a ‘skank’ if you dress like this?”

“Hang on a minute. This is my member of Parliament!” Layton cried out, adding that she was also gorgeous.

Pierson said that was the point she was trying to make.

“Exactly,” she said. “I would think if they were saying it to me, they might as well be saying it to you.”

Chow started laughing and then said it reminded her of when Megan Leslie, the NDP incumbent for Halifax, was scolded (by Conservative Diane Finley) for wearing capped sleeves in the House of Commons, to which she organized a protest among her female colleagues on Parliament Hill.

“This (was) in the middle of summer,” Chow said. “It was quite warm, so she rallied all her female colleagues with the ‘right to bare arms’ and what’s wrong with it? This whole emphasis on peoples’ appearance rather than looking at what we believe in, what we stand for, no wonder the House of Commons only have 22 per cent female MPs.”

Chow later told reporters she intentionally removed her jacket to make the point.

“I did it deliberately to talk about the importance of getting more women in the House of Commons,” she said in the lobby of the Sun News headquarters in Toronto on Thursday.

Another curious thing also happened during this portion of the interview. As Chow was saying that she spent some time on Wednesday with Equal Voice, a non-partisan advocacy group calling for more female representation in politics, Layton cut her off to boast about the NDP setting a Canadian record because 40 per cent of its candidates this election are women.

“That’s still not good enough, but it’s the best ever in Canadian history, and we’re going to keep working until we have 50 per cent plus in the House of Commons,” Layton said.

I later asked Layton why he didn’t just let Chow continue answering the question – especially since it was about women’s issues – the married couple both joked about cutting each other off.

“We sometimes finish each other’s sentences. Olivia’s made that point a lot,” Layton said.

“No, usually I’m the one jumping in,” Chow jumped in from the sidelines, which got a big laugh from Layton.

“Yeah, that was a bit of a switch,” he said.

Day 26: Jack Layton heads to the farm, then up north to Thunder Bay

The events 

New Democrat Leader Jack Layton is heading to a fifth-generation family farm in Stoney Point, Ont. owned by high school shop teacher and wrestling coach David Tremblay and his wife, Linda, a seamstress and shop owner.

They raise pigs, chickens and alternate between growing wheat and soy. They have a fruit orchard too. Can you guess what the announcement at 11 a.m. will be about?Not so fast — they also have a wind turbine!

But no, you were right the first time.

The policy Layton will present is about farming and the visuals will involve a tractor and people sitting on bales of hay in the background. The campaign will then fly to Thunder Bay, Ont., where Layton will hold a town hall-style event about health care.

The ridings

Tremblay Farm is in the riding of Essex, where Conservative incumbent Jeff Watson won with 40 per cent of the vote in the 2008 election. Liberal candidate Susan Whelan placed second with 29 per cent and New Democrat Taras Natyshak placed third with 27.6 per cent of the vote. Natyshak is running again for the NDP in Essex and the Liberal candidate in this election is Nelson Santos. On the surface this appears to be a long-shot riding, but the NDP views its two seats in nearby Windsor as a sign that Essex is in play.

The town hall will be at the Current River Recreation Centre in the riding of Thunder Bay—Superior North, where the NDP incumbent is Bruce Hyer, who won with 37 per cent of the vote in 2008. Nearby Thunder Bay—Rainy River is also held by the NDP, with John Rafferty having won with 40.3 per cent in 2008. Both Hyer and Rafferty voted with the Conservatives to scrap the long-gun registry, so they are not facing the same challenges as some of their caucus colleagues in rural and northern Ontario. In Thunder Bay, it is the Liberals who are working hard to take the seats, running Yves Fricot against Hyer. The Conservative candidate is Richard Harvey.

In Thunder Bay—Rainy River, the Liberals are running Ken Boshcoff, who represented the riding in Ottawa from 2004 to 2006 until Rafferty defeated him in 2008. The Conservative candidate there is Moe Comuzzi-Stehman.

Liberal "protester" at Jack Layton appearance not just another face in the crowd

Posted by Joanna Smith, Ottawa Bureau

As the New Democrat campaign bus pulled up at the East Coast Music Awards in Charlottetown, P.E.I. on Friday afternoon, media on the bus noticed a guy holding up a sign for Sean Casey, the Liberal candidate in running to replace retired Liberal MP Shawn Murphy in the Charlottetown riding. The NDP candidate is Joe Byrne and te Conservative is Donna Profit.

"Look, it's a Liberal protester!" someone on the bus joked, for it would be hard to describe the quiet, slightly dishevelled man in shades and a white baseball cap standing alone in the corner as a demonstration. "Maybe it's Sean Casey?"

As I soon discovered on Twitter while trying to find out whether anyone at the East Coast Music Awards had noticed NDP Leader Jack Layton was there, the lone protester ended up being none other than Ashley MacIsaac, the renowned and colourful fiddler from Cape Breton, N.S.

A couple of my reporter colleagues managed to catch up with him later and learned that while he had some nice things to say about Layton, including that some of his favourite MPs belong to the NDP, he is a Liberal supporter. One of his songs, Wingstock, has even been playing at campaign rallies for Michael Ignatieff.

Later on in Seven Mile Bay, P.E.I., Layton was asked about MacIsaac.

"The last thing I’ll do is comment on Ashley MacIsaac. I’ve shared stages with him and he’s a character, that’s for sure and a fun guy and I love him when he’s got his fiddle on the go," Layton said, adding that he performed for a fundraiser Layton was part of years ago in Toronto.

"I’ve got a special place in my heart for him. Sorry I didn’t get to bump into him and talk to him while he was there," said Layton.

Had Layton been paying closer attention to the man carrying the Liberal sign as he made his way into the hotel hosting the awards, he might have realized that he very nearly did bump into him.

Day 21: NDP Leader Jack Layton in Montreal and Prince Edward Island

Posted by Joanna Smith, Ottawa Bureau

After having spent his first day of post-debates campaigning with a visit to Scwartz's delicatessen and watching the Montreal Canadiens beat the Boston Bruins 2-0 in the first round of the NHL play-offs, New Democrat Leader Jack Layton begins Friday with another quintessential Montreal past-time: stopping by the Jean-Talon Market. Layton will then ride the underground Metro for a few stops.

This is in the riding of Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie, which the Bloc Quebecois has held since 1990. Bloc incumbent Bernard Bigras won by a landslide in the 2008 election, receiving 52 per cent of the votes, but Layton has been campaigning hard against the Bloc, trying to build on the breakthrough 2007 by-election that sent NDP deputy leader Thomas Mulcair to the House of Commons to represent the former Liberal fortress of Outremont.

Expect Layton to continue trying to convince anti-Harper Quebec voters who have previously cast their ballots for the Bloc to come over to his side, with the argument that while the Bloc can keep the Conservatives from getting a majority government, the NDP could (in theory) replace it. Buoyed by recent Quebec-only polls that put the NDP in second place in the province, well ahead of the Liberals, the NDP is selling itself as the main federalist player in Quebec.

The second half of the day will be in Prince Edward Island, where Layton will be the first party leader to  visit in this campaign. He will stop by the East Coast Music Awards in Charlottetown and then go to Seven Miles Bay to make an unspecified announcement.

Smoked-meat survey says: Jack Layton will form a majority government

Posted by Joanna Smith, Ottawa Bureau

If you’re one of those people who rolls your eyes or stifles a giggle every time New Democrat Leader Jack Layton talks about being the next prime minister, consider this bit of political insight. 

There is an old theory that says the key to winning a majority government at the federal level is a visit to Schwartz’s, the legendary delicatessen on St. Laurent Blvd. in downtown Montreal that is now featured in a new musical comedy. 

As Globe and Mailtheatre critic J. Kelly Nestruck wrote on his blog last month, every Canadian prime minister who has won a majority government since the 1970s has been to the world famous – and incredibly tiny – eatery for some smoked meat on rye with a pickle and fries, while those who have not have been doomed to minorities.

Consider the facts: Pierre Elliott Trudeau, Brian Mulroney and Jean Chrétien have all eaten at Schwartz's and gone on to solid wins in Parliament.

Joe Clark, John Turner and Kim Campbell, on the other hand, have never been seen at the eatery, and none of them ever led their parties to a majority in an election. Coincidence?

Okay, there is one: Paul Martin, who did not win a majority in an election despite a demonstrated predilection for Schwartz's smoked meat. (Breaking with his South Beach Diet, the then-Prime Minister carved a medium-fat brisket for media at a party at 24 Sussex Drive in 2005.)

…

Will the election of 2011 ultimately be determined by whoever - Harper or Ignatieff - makes it to Schwartz's first?

As Layton would likely point out, that kind of thinking represents the old-fashioned attitude that Canadians only have two choices when deciding who to vote for in this election.

And you know what? While both the Liberals and Conservatives are quick to point out they have served smoked meat on the campaign trail this year, neither Stephen Harper nor Michael Ignatieff have actually stopped by the joint yet.

So, guess which national leader is the first to visit for a photo-op on Thursday afternoon?

Your next prime minister: Jack Layton.

Time to stop being such a defeatist.

UPDATE: I briefed Layton on this theory as he was entering the place and noted he had beat both Harper and Ignatieff to it. "Well, there you go," Layton said. "It's a theory I subscribe to."