A new day has dawned

So, what’s everyone expect tonight?

Judging by the comments, there’s not much hope out there in the great world of fans. Lots of fire Sam, bench Bargnani, trade Ford, play Moon, Bosh is brutal talk among you, isn’t there?

You may all be right, or you may all be wrong.

I still think this series has some legs and it’s sure not over.

For some reason, they’re letting us do our shootaround media before they take the court instead of after so we’ll put a few things out there now and update it after 10:30 or so when we get back.

ANDREW WALLACE/TORONTO STAR

It wouldn't be like matching up against the gang here, but Chris Bosh on Dwight Howard might work.

The gang (seven writers constitutes a gang, I guess) is heading out shortly so there’s not much time for pontificating.

Here we go:

Action: Rasho starts.
Reaction: He won’t play long.

What’s the matchup they want? Howard guarding Bosh. One, it may allow Bosh to get Howard in foul trouble, it works far better for Toronto’s pick-and-roll if Howard’s at the elbow guarding Bosh and it takes Lewis off Bosh.

So I’m guessing the first sub comes after about four minutes and it’s either Kapono or Moon for Rasho.

And, if the Magic switches up and puts Howard on Bargnani, which I don’t expect, it’ll be up to Bargnani to stay out around the perimeter and make plays if Howard comes out to guard him.

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Here’s today’s Sentinel link and what they had to say.

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Action: Kapono plays
Reaction: He’s got to play smart.

One thing Kapono did in Game 1 was, for the most part, stay outside the arc on offence and that’s where he has to operate to be successful for a couple of reasons.

All season long, we’ve seen him drive the ball after those little shot fakes and try to hit those little runners or mid-range jumpers. That’s all well and good, if he’s making them. But he’s a three-point shooter and he should stay outside and shoot them.

What his driving also does is create more congestion in the paint and that’s the last thing these guys want, what with Dwight Howard back there and all.

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A mailbag question on a point I was going to make:

Q: I was watching Raptors Today this evening and Sam said something that kind of stuck with me... in a bad way. He said that tomorrow's game isn't a must-win. While mathematically it may not be, I think it is if they want to win the series. We've seen this whole season, especially Sunday, that the Raptors just haven't come out with a sense of urgency. Now if I'm a player on the Raps, and I hear my coach say that this game we're playing isn't a must win; it probably wouldn't make me not try hard, but it might make me come out less aggressive. Why do you think Sam said that? Is he trying not to put pressure on his guys? Because I think that kind of pressure might be good for them.

Amanda F, Barrie

A: I know exactly why he said it and if you could hear me do my Sam imitation right now, this is what he’d say:

"Guys, guys, guys. We want to win every game. If this is a ‘must win’ and we don’t win, what’s that make Thursday? A ‘must, must, must’ win? Come on, guys.”

I see your point on wanting to put pressure on his players, or imbue them with a sense of urgency and perhaps he does that in private. But I know Sam and I know he’s not going to publicly admit any game’s a ‘must win’ until they’ve lost three in a series.

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The people you meet.

I was standing on the court before the game Sunday having a chinwag with Old Friend Brendan Malone, who was also carrying on a conversation with a distinguished looking gentleman next to me.

While Brendan and I were talking old time Raptors, family and basketball, he and the other guy were talking old time Mets and Dodgers and Shea Stadium and the old Polo Grounds.

Both of ‘em are big baseball fans, obviously.

The gentleman looks vaguely familiar, sure knows his sports and was greeted warmly by everyone around him.

As he walks away, Brendan says, “Do you know Stan’s father? This is Bill Van Gundy.”

Very cool dude.

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Okay, this is divorced from these guys and this series but the shenanigans in New York are continuing and it’s getting more ridiculous by the minute.

First, new boss Donnie Walsh says Isiah isn’t fired but he really doesn’t have a title and Walsh makes it clear Thomas as no place in the Knicks decision-making process. Isiah will have no one reporting to him, Walsh said the day he took over.

Now, the New York papers are reporting that not only does Thomas have no real job – but he’s not fired – he can’t even contact anyone with the team.

Why don’t they just fire the guy, pay him his money and let him get on with his life.

I knew James Dolan was a classless buffoon, I would have thought better from Donnie Walsh.

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Okay, I’m gonna post some comments and head to shootaround, check back later and we’ll have a post-shootaround update.

Comments

[Paulino Nunes]

First of all - excellent Sam impersonation!

Second - since you asked...

I expect the Raptors to come out with much more intensity and purpose from the start, much like they seem to do in third quarters. The defence, while not perfect, will not be as porous and the offence will continue to hum along. Bargnani will continue to work hard and begin to really find his game and they'll look for him a little more. Kapono will draw much more attention, but will continue to shoot threes instead of running jumpers. That attention will stretch the Magic defence a little more and give Bosh a bit more room to operate. CB4 will continue to drive the basket, get free throws and will have a much bigger game. Ford will be Ford and Calderon will close out the game with some defensive intensity, successfully nursing home a 5 - 10 point lead.

The Magic will not be nearly as cool and confident when their first 7 shots don't all go down. Howard will be Howard, but good defence and aggressive drives on offence will get him into some foul trouble and his effectiveness will be limited. He'll still have another 'quiet' 20-20, but it won't matter much without the perimeter guys playing out of their minds.

Bottom line - Game 1 saw the Magic play way beyond their abilities and squeek out a victory (with some help from the ref sitting Bosh for near real reason) over a team that was not playing up to it's standards. This is definitely a series.

I hope.

[Matthew Fox]

I could be wrong but my feeling is that in that last game if we ever had a shot at winning it is when we came back to get within 5. Smitch should have gone back to Bosh. You win and lose with your best and 4 fouls or not he doesn't help you when your down by 14 or 15 with 4 fouls either.

[Dan]

Last year the Raptors lost the first game to the Nets due to nerves. Then in game 3 and 4 they started out very badly on the road aswell and spent much of the game coming from behind. It wasn't untill game 6 that they finally came out strong on the road. To look at it from a posative perspective. They got the first game nerves over with on the road rather then at home like they did last year. Even if they lose tonight they can win the two in toronto and the series is tied. Based on last year they got better as the series went on. Chris in the last game finaly looked like normal and they just barely lost game 6. I still think the Raptors have a shot at winning tonight.

[Rob]

Doug, why do you think everyone putting the blame solely on TJ for not containing the dribble penetration? Ford did not do a good job defensively on Sunday, but as Mitchell mentioned, neither did anyone else. Calderon was on the court just as much as TJ and he also wasn't able to stop Nelson or Dooling. Its seems unfair to blame everything on TJ. I like both point guards, but I'm starting to sympathize for Ford because people seem to be overly critical of everything he does.

Blogger's note: I don't think anyone in their right mind is putting the blame entirely on T.J. Everyone got beat often.

[Eric]

Doug,

I think the "must win" point is quite funny, to tell you the truth. Remember when Sam first started with this team, they were out in Utah, it might've been the fourth or fifth game of his coaching career, and he called it a "must win"? He was telling anyone who'd listen that it was a must win, that they couldn't afford to lose. They actually won, too!

It didn't make a difference, the team went in the tank after that, anyway. But I guess something changed between then and now that's led him away from using the ol' "must win" strategy through the media. Still, I wonder, if he doesn't use it now because it's not an elimination game, did he think Utah in November 2004 was an elimination game?

Blogger's note: I don't recall that game or those comments, which strike me as entirely out of character, but I'll take your word for it. They were actually 3-1 going into Utah.

[AA]

Doug,

The strategy of having Howard cover Bosh or Bargnani sounds good, except for the fact that Bosh or Bargnani will have to defend Howard. If Bosh gets in foul trouble, we can kiss this game goodbye. Bargnani will look like a pylon out there covering Howard.

I think they should just put Moon on Hedo. Sure it limits us offensively but it will help with rebounding and defense. It worked during the regular season.

[Tommy P]

Hey Doug,

I really like the idea of Rasho not playing as much. I recall the Orlando game where the Raps beat them at the ACC, and Bosh scored 40 that game with mostly Howard on him. Howard did get 30 and 15 that game, but he had no answer for Bosh. Shouldn't they just go with Bosh and Bargnani up front and bring in Rasho off the bench for the rest of the series? I think there are matchups that aren't great for Rasho and this is one of them.

[David]

Hi Doug,

Magic fan here enjoying the perspective from the other side that you are providing...

I don't mean to try to represent the entre Orlando fan base (which, until this year was me, my brother-in-law, and our drinking buddies), but I think the smartest move the Raptors could make would be to force Howard to guard Bosh. I think the biggest stat from game 1 was Dwight's 5 blocks, and he will be free to keep challenging every shot unless he has to stay at home on an elite scorer.

On the other hand, I'm a little surprised that so many people seem to think that the Magic's offensive performance in game 1 was an aberration. All season Turk and Lewis have been just as critical to our scoring as Howard has, and they only shot a combine 4-12 from 3 -- not exactly lights out -- and while Nelson and Evans did shoot it well, that's kind of what you expect when guys who average over 38% (Evans) and 41% (Nelson) get wide-open looks.

[Richard]

"Blogger's note: I don't think anyone in their right mind is putting the blame entirely on T.J. Everyone got beat often."

Well, look no further then your co-worker (from his column today):

"Where was the defence when Magic point guard Jameer Nelson repeatedly treated T.J. Ford, his Toronto counterpart, like a pylon?"

You guys keep trying to blame the fans and outsiders for creating this apparent non-existent feud between TJ and Jose (which is correct to some degree), meanwhile TJ is entirely singled out in Feschuk's column today (vis a vis Jose's blame too) and consistently by other writers who cover the team. Sigh.

[Zaddups]

I know...we're almost ready for game two...but I have a few observations about Game 1 Doug.
I have been watching basketball for a long time...and for a PLAYOFF game...that's supposed to be tightly played and officiated...that 1st quarter may have been the worst that I've seen a team defend in my life. What kind of game plan was that by Sam...as Bosh said after the game? Why would they not play the way they played Orlando throughout the season and if the plan didn't work then make tweaks here and there. But no, Sam decides to do a complete 180 before game 1 had even started.
My observations...
1. No reason to start Bargnani at the three...terrible coaching decision. Please Sam...run plays for Bargnani close to the basket...this may help him get into a rhythm.
2. Chris Bosh will never be mistaken for Karl Malone on the court but my goodness CB4...leave the Denzel Washington movie roles alone and get in the gym and get stronger. Rashard Lewis is one of the worst defenders in the league and he was physicalling(yes I know that's not a word) Bosh all game and pushing him further and further away from the hoop.
3. Please Jose and TJ...play off quick point guards. Give them space...in fact let Nelson and Dooling beat us by shooting from the outside and not killing us with the drive and kicks. All year these two PG's have been playing way too tight and getting destroyed by penetration...can't the coaches see this?
4. As good as Rasho has been playing(best on the team for about a month)..he's way overmatched in this series. I thought they could have put in Hump for a time in Game 1...at least he's athletic and could move with Howard.
5. Moon's confidence has to be shot now...Thanks Sam. 5 minutes...he's done in this series. Also...if Moon does get some burn and he doesn't go to the basket...put him in the space shuttle and send him to the Moon!
6. Why didn't Sam call a timeout after the Raps cut the lead to 5 in the 4th quarter? Then he let Orlando score the next what 10 points before he stopped the bleeding. He needed to call a timeout after the first or second bucket by Orlando. Terrible coaching by Mitchell again. To me...the biggest mismatch in this series is the coaches. Orlando has a real coach who comes up with a strategy while our bench boss goes for organized mayhem that even his own players can't execute. In no way am I saying Mitchell is in the league of Popovich...but Greg would have called a timeout after the first bucket Orlando scored to put the lead to 7...no way he's losing the game thinking the team will play through it.
7. Bosh...please ease off on the ticky tack reach in fouls. If they get the rebound...just get back and play defence. His two silly reach ins were costly.
8. Last but not least...It's really sad that it takes us 83(82 regular season and 1 playoff game) games to realize that we have an absolute lights-out long distance shooter in Jason Kapono. My goodness...what happened to running the guy off screens or letting him feed Chris Bosh in the post...that way the defence would have to either double Bosh with Kapono's man or send another defender...at which time Bosh could find that open man for a shot or drive to the hoop(not that they ever do that). No way we trade Kapono...all those out there who say trade this guy are nuts. All he needs is some good plays and he can get his shot off in an instant. How athletic was Dell Curry? He got his shot off didn't he? Keep Kapono...let Delfino walk unless we can re-sign him for cheap.
9. Actually one more point. The key to this series...Get Superman in foul trouble. The mysterious kryptonite for Toronto: Penetration from the guards into Dwight Howard to force him to make a play and possibly pick up fouls.

Doug I know it's long but I was waiting to exhale ala Terry McMillan .

[Kevin]

Rasho or Andrea against Howard? It has to be Rasho unless Andrea shows something this game. Rasho is not pretty but he will be there for the box out, the pass, the tip and the help. Andrea? You never know. If he lights it up tonight then his defense and rebounding won't be quite as important.

[Steve]

Eh, am I now a bad person for enjoying the humiliation of Thomas? I'm all for having a classy organization, but somehow sticking it to Isiah seems like precisely the right thing to do.

[bballer]

why does everyone think of the rpators problems in terms of the offense - shoot more 3's, calderon taking it to the hoop, when the problems for the raps is usually on defense. int the smitch era, the raps has always scored. it is when they play defense is when they win. i don't care who starts, who finishes or who does what. as long as they minimize dribble penetration, limit second chance opportunities and stay in front of their opponent on the perimeter the team should win. by focusing only on the offensive end, the raps will just end up like phx - strong offensively, highly entertaining, yet comes up short on the defensive end. like riley says, defense travels and defense wins chanpionships.

[bballer]

i like what smitch is doing. you keep tweaking your lineup to find something that will work. it is not that the raps are moving allstars in and out of the lineup. moon on rashard should be interesting to see.

quick question, b4 colangelo came the raps needed a wing who can avg 20ppg by taking guys off the dribble and a big who can rebound and play intimidating defense. 2 years later, the raps are still looking for those 2 players.

the nba will be great next year - skiles in mil, carlisle in chitown. hard nosed bball will be back in the east! john hammond - exec of the year 08-09!

[Mike S]

One thing I'm confused about. Our most glaring deficiency in the last two months has been any semblance of defense. So, our big counter to Dwight and his 22 rebounds is to go smaller? I know they are trying to open up the game offensively for Bosh, but can we realistically try to outscore this team?

I'm just assuming Sam has given up on the concept of defense because these guys obviously can't play it, and is going to try to simply out shoot them. The only problem I have with this is that means Rasho sees more bench. More bench for the only player that has decided to bring his game to another level in the last two months. Can you see why we are all a little worried?

[Dan]

The Raptors had a much better first quarter. The Raptors clearly learned from the first game. If you let the Magic take open layups, they will take less threes. Layups are only worth two so you can't argue with that.

[GamBit]

Intensity, thats whats missing, this team doesn't stand a chance against any NBA team, cuz we lack focus and intensity.
Period!
Now, i love the raptors, but we are weak on perimeter defense, i'd hope they would be ready for that, i mean these dudes are making millions to do exactly that right?
You make a mistake at work, you fix it, or you get fired, i dont understand why that motto doesn't apply to the players, coachs of any franchise in the sports world??
I hated sports growing up, let me clarify, i hated watching it, but playing, i was one of the best, usually Football-aka-soccer.
But the Raptors got me into basketball, now iam a Fan, i can say iam a tad obsessed!!!
But these raps got a unlucky break, powerforwards are not the future, swingmen are, the days of kareem, julius, hakeem, barkley are over, its all Lebrons, kobe's and chirs paul's now.
I love Bosh, but he's a Lamar Odom type player, leftie whose quick, lean and shoots like a sf, and we all know Odom is a supporting cast.
So where does that leave us when we let our franchise get carried by a dude whose more of a supporting cast?
Hmmm?
Down 2-0 in the playoffs and questioning heart and grit?
Nah...call a spade a spade folks, we are a team thats led by supporting cast, coached by an assistant and played by a bunch of rookies-Jose,bargs,moon and also aging vets who should be getting 10 mins max like, Parker,Rasho, the complimentary players like Kapono and delphino, are what everyone calls a role player, but a role player needs the services of a dude who commands a double team team, the kinda dude who drives and dishes like a Wade or Chauncy Billups......am i wrong?
Someone prove me wrong?
I love my raps, but we need an Overhaul, wether you want to admit it or not?
And the only way thats gonna happen, is if we get some kind of productivity form bargs and kapono next year so we can ship em for some draft picks!!
Thats right!
Draft picks, no more of the magette and jefferson talk, those dudes will come here and not play, period!
Why, cuz wether you want to admit it or not, NBA players, american ones, like highlights and television and endorsements to get juiced up, that wont happen playing out of the states...you know this....you know this...BC knows this, thats why he couldn't get Salmons...thats why he went after europeans...i have no issues with europeans.
Just that need to time to get americanized..which means, become hardcore and all that cliche's...
A question for Doug..i love your blog, but if you were the coach of the raptors for one quarter, who would be your starting five and what plays would you run against the Magic?

[Jeff]

If Moon is not going to keep Hedo infront of him, then bench him. At least Kapano will hit the open jumpers.

[er]

Chris Bosh is a terrible option with the game on the line. He is not a clutch player. Sam Mitchel showed his great coaching again. Have a guy who played a terrible 4th quarter and has no energy left take a jumpshot 18 feet from the basket. Why not set up a play where they drive the ball. At least you have a chance to get fouled. NO way Raps win this series. Bosh is a borderline allstar. Howard is a full out Superstar. One posative is that we have an idea of who Sam feels is the better point guard.

[Ian]

A couple of observations about this game.

I'm a big Calderon fan and TJ makes me crazy, but after TJ came back off the bench I thought he played pretty well. If Sam starts Jose in Toronto (as per one of the post-game interview questions), why would anyone think TJ would be okay with that after the mid-season dramatics?

What the heck is Moon thinking hoisting up threes? I was prepared to give him a pass in the regular season for his occasional lack of recognition of his strengths, but his inability to drive with his quickness and athleticism makes me want to nutpunch someone (usually him or Smitch who keeps him in). This is the playoffs - there should be very little patience for this in the postseason.

I'm not a doom-and-gloomer yet, but we have a hill to climb. If we avoid the 1st quarter blowouts that give Orlando confidence and let them find their flow, I think we can knock off 4 wins in a row. It's up to the Raps now - they know what they need to do. If they can't, or won't, BC has some serious decisions to make in the off season.