No lottery luck in this precinct

Pressure’s on at 40 Bay St.

Can you imagine a worse lottery scenario than the one that played out last night?
I guess if the Knicks or Nets got third, it might have been, but that’s about it.

BILL KOSTROUN/AP

And with this, the playoff race in the East tightens up.

Chicago takes Rose to go along with Hughes and Deng and it means they don’t have to trade for a point guard. Or they take Beasley to give them a low-post beast and no way Toronto makes them better by dealing them Ford.

And then Miami takes Beasley to go with Wade and Marion or they take Rose to fill out a formidable backcourt. If they get Beasley, they still need a point guard but can you imagine Toronto flipping them one to make them a 45-win team? I don’t know about that.

All of a sudden, two bad teams are good and the bottom half of this year’s playoff lineup – read Toronto, Philly and Atlanta – are a tad nervous.

That puts a tremendous amount of extra pressure on Mr. Colangelo to improve the roster and on Mr. Mitchell to get the most out of it

The summer, or at least the time between now and the middle of July, just got a tad interesting for those of us who have to follow and write about this squad.

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Okay, this is how it works, sometimes.

Reporter calls someone in the organization, trolling for a story. They get around to talking trade and the chat goes like this:

"So, what have you got going?”
“Not much.”

"Think you could get Melo and Camby away from Denver?”
“Sure, for a steep price.”

"What else is out there?”
“Well, Miami might want to do Haslem, we like Wilcox in Seattle and God knows what they might do in Chicago.”

"What would it cost you?”
“We would move Player X if we had to.”

“Any other teams talking.”
"Bet Toronto wants to do something, they’ve got to move one of those point guard and I’m sure they’ll shop Ford.”

“Anyone else?”
“Sure, maybe they’re tired of the big kid, he had a pretty bad year.”

"The Bargnani kid?”
“Yup.”

"Okay,  thanks."

Presto, change-o, story gets written, my inbox gets filled.

That’s an over-simplification, of course; but sometimes that’s how it goes down; that way there are names in the story, chat rooms go bonkers and a guy sitting in a local looks up and sees Bargnani on TV with a throw line to a possible deal.

Lovely world, isn’t it?

A lot of the names you read in various stories are absolutely legit when it comes to interest. But there is a long, long, long, long, long way between interest and something getting done. Just a gentle reminder.

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Sitting watching halftime of last night’s game and there was Avery Johnson goofing with the ABC-ESPN dudes. Last week, he was in the TNT studios with Chuck, Kenny and Ernie.

Guess what Avery’s going to be doing next season while he sits back and spends some of Mark Cuban’s money?

-

Let’s get into the mail:

Q: I was wondering, with the recent comments made by J.J. Reddick, why do players say this kind of stuff in the media? Do they think the coach or the team are going to say "hey, we should play him cause he said he wants to play or trade me"...?
Also, with what is going on with OJ Mayo, is his draft status hurt now?

I really think he should have stayed in college, but I guess that can't happen anyway.

Zack B, Scarborough

A: I have no idea why players say such crazy things – it diminishes their trade value (as we may have learned from He Who Shall Not Be Named and others) and it makes them sound, in this case especially, like a whiny kid who’s never done anything wanting to make some noise.

But, as reporters, we love it.

And, no, I don’t think Mayo’s stock drops much, if at all, because of questions about financial improprieties. We did see Marcus Williams tumble a bit when he came out of

Connecticut with some, um, issues, and Boston College’s Sean Williams might have gone higher a year ago if not for his off-court problems. But Mayo? I think his talent still makes him a top six or seven pick.

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Okay, as we approach workout time for draft picks, let’s make one thing clear.

Most teams will entertain between 30-50 prospects over the next month or so, either in individual workouts or free agent camps.

They will end up drafting two players and, perhaps, inviting one or two others to camp in October. They will maybe fill out a summer league team with the debris from those workouts and camps.

So every time you read a story or a note about this guy or that guy being “signed” by the Raptors, or the Raptors being “interested” in some guy you never heard of, remember that a lot of this time is wasted. And those guys are mostly fodder.

-

You check out Mike Breen and Jeff Van Gundy, on the day before they did the Celtics-Pistons game last night, watching the John Lester no-hitter at Fenway?

They looked like regular fans, high-fiving guys after the last out.

Of course, regular fans who somehow got third row seats at Fenway.

Still, very cool. And makes a lifelong Red Sox fan hope for an early June night off in Bostonso he can do the same thing.

-

Here’s another dip into the mailbag:

Q: Regarding Jamario's contract, it is great that his salary is being doubled, but were the Raptors limited by the amount he could have been offered? It somehow doesn't seem right that for a guy who started as much games as he did, and played well enough to make the Second All Rookie team, he only gets paid $700K, while some who will remain nameless, make off like bandits (salary relative to effort/production).

Colin W, Toronto

A: The fact is, next year’s salary was set almost a year ago now. Toronto signed him to a one-year deal with a team option for the second and he knew going in to last season what he’d make next year.

Sure, he’s a bargain but a year ago he had no guarantees of anything and a chance to make the league-minimum of about $711,000 must have looked pretty good.

I guess the Raptors could have made a bigger offer last summer but why would they? They had no idea what they were getting.

Comments

[bballer]

with rose going to chitown and beasley in miami, we better pray that oj mayo does not go to the knicks. can you imagine a crawford/mayo backcourt with d'antoni's system? that would be sick! man, i'm glad i'm not colangelo b/c every team beneath the raps last year has great wing men and are looking to complement those guys with solid post players. the raps need to overhaul every position aside from pg and bosh.

again, if you notice the play of pg's in the post season, a pg with a scoring mentality like isiah or magic of old or dwills, chauncey, parker or cp3, who can make decisions and get the ball to the right guy is more valuable than pass first pg's like kidd or nash. that type of person would fare better with a wing who can create his own shot and a low post big. when your pg is aggressive like rondo has to be, it is a lot more effective and keeps the defense on their toes. rose is that type of pg. pass first pg's can be pretty to watch, but they don't get you rings.

new orleans lost since they didn't have another wing who can create his own shot. when pargo came on, they got better. whereas spurs did better inserting ginoboli as a starter with parker since he can create his own shot. by virtue of what i'm saying, you can tell who i would prefer as the raptors starting pg.

[Hubert]

i remember than Moon was s'posed to be a 12th man and i think even you stated, yeah the kid is athletic but don't expect to see him start or something like that:-) so why not be hopeful with all these summer camps, eh?

[jr]

why not trade Rasho ,T.j , Paker and #17 pick for micheal redd and charlie V if the lakers can get
Gasol for a bag chips then the raptors can get this trade than , send bargani to nets for jefferson

so next year our line up look like this
calderon
redd
jefferson
charlie V
bosh

bench: garbo,kapono,humpries,moon

[Craig]

Doug, aren't you the one reminding readers/viewers/commenters that you have to give something up to get something back in a trade? Maybe the Raps give up a PG to help some team get to 45 wins, but what they get back helps the Raps get to 50 wins?

[jimmie]

Doug, simple one: Any word on the Raptors street about interest in Joe Alexander at #17? This kid looks like a decent bet at SF, if not now, within a couple of years. A 6'-8" specimen who absolutely attacks the rim (lots of YouTube video out there) and is well-known as an inveterate gym rat with a killer work ethic, and has only 5 years of organized basketball under his belt. He recently outplayed Mareese Speights and others at the Abunassar pre-draft workout, finishing his workout with a headbutt of the rim. He's got Moon-like athleticism and a bigger appetite for rebounding. Might make up for the Joey Graham experiment, at least......

Blogger's note: He'd be on a list of possible draft picks, sure. Along with about 20 others.

[Jim K]

Doug - watching the Celts and Pistons last night.

Garnett sets a hard screen and drops Lindsay Hunter. Garnett a few minutes later tries another high screen on Rip Hamilton, and Hamilton throws an elbow.

Was it:
(a) A cheap shot by Hamilton?
(b) A good tough play by Hamilton reminding Garnett he isn't going to get away with setting hard picks?

If you think (a), do you still think it was a elbow that needed to be sent? If you think (b), do you think he deserves to be suspended?

Blogger's note: I don't recall the specific play but if there was no blood or bones protruding, I can't see a suspension.

[Amanda]

Hey Doug - Word is the Sonics are looking to shop around their #4 pick.. think BC gave Sam Presti a call last night?

Blogger's note: I presume they've spoken already and will speak again. Often. Like BC will with every general manager between now and June 26

[Hezron]

I think the NBA should get rid of the lottery. Simply make the worst team the number one, second worst number two etc. Before anyone comes with the argument of "teams will tank" card, the NFL does it and I didn't see teams tank. The lottery is a sham to begin with.

As for the Raptors, it's been mentioned on realgm.com that the Nets are reportedly interested in Bargnani. I suggest this, rid of bargnani(he got eaten alive by Dwight Howard in the playoffs), trade up to acquire Roy Hibbert from Georgetown, rid of TJ Ford (thus making Calderon the point guard). It's a start.

Blogger's note: Everyone got eaten alive by Dwight Howard in the Raptor-Magic series and they won't have to trade up to get Roy Hibbert if they are at all interested.

[Scott]

Hey Doug,

I was just wondering on how close the source "inside the organization" is. By no means do I want names, but the hypotheitcal discussion between reporter and "inside guy" is true, I think it would be interesting to know how close to the know the guy is.

I mean MLSE for one, employes a crapload of people, and while I realize that you could simply be speaking with the guy who presses Brian's suit, or sweeps the floors, but how likely is that?

I would find it amusing that you inbox fills up based on a conversation some reporter in NJ had with a janitor.

Thanks,

Blogger's note: Anyone we talk to, at least I talk to, is in the room when all the major decisions are contemplated and made.

[RS]

Could someone please explain to me how the rumoured NJ-Den deal makes any sense for Denver at all?

Seems like they could get more/better than that for Melo and Camby?

Blogger's note: I sure it has financial implications and, quite frankly, it's not working in Denver and it won't, so maybe it's time to make a change.

[J. Culligan]

What's the deal with a basketball blog that chooses to ignore the first game of the Eastern Conference finals? Was the draft lottery that exciting that you forgot to catch the Celts/Pistons, or are inferring the game is not worth watching? Seeming as the Celts took game one, maybe you're just worried about your 6 game prediction?

[Robert]

I'm not sure that Chicago winning the draft is the worst result since I think Chicago will draft Rose - a local kid. A worse result would have been if Miami got the 1st pick. Now Miami will likely draft Beasley. Miami may still be interested in a trade for TJ.

[Andrew Gregg]

Regarding the Bargnani talk:

It begs a broader question--at least, I beg a broader question. How willing is Coangelo to run up the white flag on his former No. 1 pick so soon? Il Busto didn't have a great year--and maybe another year with more time in the practice gym and less time on College Street will help him out. But thats' not the point. The point is Coangelo's image as a shrewd basketball man around the league. You know him better than us--would he be willing to risk that image as keen judge of talent to pull the trigger on a Bargnani trade that may--or may not--help the Raps next season? And regarding the whole squad, has he got a five year plan for the Raps? Or have circumstances reduced it to one year?

AG, Toronto

Blogger's note: I cannot imagine a legitimate scenario that results in a Bargnani trade for at least a year. Nor should he, the kid is 22 and has lots to learn, yes; but he's 22 and that gives him lots of time to learn.

[Joe T.]

This Draft Lottery scenario that you summed up just increases my concerns abut the Raptors going forward, Doug. Sure, they were disappointing this year but they may have repeated as Atlantic Division champions if a certain other team didn't make a record improvement by adding 2 All-Stars to the one they already had. Now, once again, teams who finished below the Raptors look to be perhaps much-improved come next season. And of the three teams you mention (Toronto, Philly and Atlanta) as being perhaps a bit nervous about that, Toronto's the one who should be the most nervous. Both those other teams have more young, athletic, All-Star potential players on them and seem to be arcing upwards. The Raptors seem headed in the other direction. Bryan Colangelo HAS to make the "Big Splash" to improve the team this summer or fans are in for even more disappointment next year when the teams spends the First Round of the Playoffs on the golf course. One All-Star and a bunch of inconeistent role players aren't going to get it done. Everyone makes a big deal about the importance of role players and continuity and points to the Spurs and Pistons as well-deserved models of how to succeed. But both those teams have at least 3 players who have been All-Stars in the past four years, too, and most of them multiple times! I can't wait to see what happens!...

[VoiceOfReason]

Why would having Beasley would make TJ less attractive?

I would think some combination of TJ/Rasho for Hinrich/Tyrus would work for both teams assuming the salary details could be worked out. We could even add in them AP, or take Gordon back instead of Hinrich. They still don't have good C options, and Rasho would fit nicely. I don't imagine they're enamored having Chris Duhon and Kirk Hinrich run the show for them next year.

[Howland]

Doug -

I can think of worse scenario's....like NJ winning the lottery, or NY. At least Miami and Chicago are in a different division. Besides, don't forget what Chicago did the last time they had the number one pick: Drafted Brand, traded him for Chandler (a key in NO turning the corner so quickly) and Brian Skinner (junk) and then dealt Chandler for JR Smith (waived) and PJ Brown (now helping the Celts on their way to the Finals). Not exactly using the first pick to help the franchise as they are now left with zero.

PS: At least it isn't last year. Durant and Oden in the East would be a lot more concerning.

[Jam]

When I saw David West playing in the playoffs, that left me with some hope for Bargs. In his first 2 years, West averaged like 3.5 and 8.5 pts. Now he is averaging 20 or so pts. May be this is why some bigs take longer time to develop. Doug, What do you think about my point?

Blogger's note: I think your point is exactly the one many people have been making for two years. Generally, it does take bigs longer to develop. No question about it.

[Chris S]

Everyone keeps saying it's worth holding on to Bargnani for at least one season because of his potential and that is true BUT the other side of the coin is if he has another bad season (which wouldn't suprise me) he will have NO trade value. His trade value is low now but he still has that potential factor that could land a Jefferson type player, another regressing season and they will be lucky to get a sack of potatoes. Just a thought.

[Robert]

Doug, I understand your position on Bargnani and I agree that you can't give up on him after 2 years. But, although it is all just speculation, just wondering would you trade Bargnani for Richard Jefferson (of course other players would have to be included to make the salaries match)?

Blogger's note: No, and here's why. With Jefferson and without Bargnani, this team is no nearer an Eastern Conference championship than it is with Bosh and Bargnani. And, if in two or three years Bargnani is the player they expect him to be and Jefferson's nearing the end of his career, it will look like a bad trade.

[Howard L.]

in response to "jr"...way up the post...

Gasol was not traded to the Lakers for a "bag of chips"....They traded their starting center, strong but no hands (K. Brown)...with the fairly large expiring contract and by this time Memphis had gone into shutdown mode, a future "player" in Javaris Critter (who was probably a target for a few GM's, he was going to be our future at the 1-2 positions, 2 first round picks, which could have been nice, if the Lakers stumbled and fell lower, but they did not, and probably will not, rights to Marc Gasol (another center...if he's 80% of Pau, hes's a player, and we already know he's 120% of Pau in terms of mass, and no comment on Aaron McKie, that was just using a an available clause to make it work. Pau never got them over the humps in Memphis, so it was their choice, nobody put a gun to their heads and said do it or else, there were no under the table handshakes (see "Kevin McHale" (and I really don't care if the "H" in his name need to be capitalized. Pau is not a banger, he is a little "soft" and he has to up his game to keep up as the playoffs progress. His "game" could have collapsed by this point and then the trade wouldn't look like a bed of roses. Some trades take times to play out. Personally I wish that when sportswriters talk about trades, they would say the name of the player that a traded draft pick eventually turned out to be....sometimes that # means nothing until you see the outcome. Toronto is the your team, I assume, and your team has alot of talent, and pretty good management. It takes time to build championships. They aren't built overnight, and sometimes they never come (such as the Sun's of the past few years). By the way, sorry that it was your Raptor's that had to watch Kobe do the "81" on them, but he had to do it on someone. Not bad for a 13th pick in the draft....who spent the first few years badly coached, by Del Harris, and abused by some teammates (well maybe he deserved it back then....) Good luck and be a fan of your team year in and year out, not like I see here in LA, where everyone jumps on the bandwagon when they start to roll, I've watched them since 1965. Last statement: The Lakers will have to struggle to get past the Spurs, and if they do, the battle against the Celtics (I assume), will be even harder because Garnett will get the calls over Pau, as Pierce will get the calls over Odom. Zebras control some outcomes.

[Alejandro]

Well, it's gonna be interesting to see what the Raptors will do on draft night come June 26 and during the offseason, now that rumour has it that they're trying to pull the trigger on a major deal. If one of the pg are traded, that likely will be Ford,since he caused some trouble when he came back from injry and was put on the bench, and personally I would prefer they trade Ford rather than Calderon. I'm so hoping the Raptors reatin Calderon, coz besides being a good, true point guard, he shows great profesionalism and plays with passion, just look how he gave Ford the starting lineup when Ford start whining about it. But the question is, what team will they try to make a trade with and how much are they gonna get in return? If they can get in return Hinrich for Ford, plus some other players included, that can really bolster the Raptor's lineup this coming season, and let's hope it does. And on the Bargnani issue, I think they should give him one more chance, coz the kid got talent and game, he's just not so consistent but he's young and still learning and adapting to the intensity of this league. One more chancer won't be bad, and if he doesn't progress this coming season, then we can consider other options, and by the way probably the Raptors won't get much in return for him now.
PS: If the Raptors were to make a trade with the Nets that include Bargnani and other players, would you imagine if the Nets would like to send back Carter to the Raptors? mmmmm, very interesting. I wonder what Raptor fans would react if they were to see Vince coming back to the team, since the Nets are trying to clear some salary space by getting rid off big contracts such as Jefferson, Carter and Deving Harris.