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December 31, 2008

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Poppa Vlazo

Doug, yesterday I was comparing Jose's numbers this year to his numbers as a starter last year, which is the most appropriate comparison. And his numbers are pretty much flat from last year - no big statistical jumps one way or another.

His minutes are up by almost 2, his scoring is up by .2, assists down by .1, turnovers up by .3, steals down by .25, FG% down by almost 5% and 3FG% down by just over 2%. Overall he's taking less shots per game but a higher percentage of those are 3's.

His free throws per game are actually up from 1.5 to 2.4, but that is still low for a point. As a comparison to other Eastern conference points (excluding last nights games), Devin Harris is at 10.2 (!!), Andre Miller is at 4.3, TJ is at 3.9, Rondo is at 3.7, Rose is at 3.5, Bibby is at 1.7 and Nelson is at 1.6. The only Western Conference guard that I looked at was Paul who is at 6.7.

Not sure why but I expected Jose's scoring and assists to jump a bit from last year. I agree that he needs to be more selfish at times. I'd definitely like to see him get to the line more often, but getting in the lane and drawing fouls is not really his game and it never will be.

Bill Rogers

If the only defense you can offer for Bargnani's weak play is that he played well the first 7-8 games of the season then that is a sad state....All I want from this guy is a stretch of 10-12 games where plays good (not great) every game. He has not done that AT ALL since early in his rookie year.

Granted his shot has looked better lately (more arc) and his defense has been decent all year. But really, if all he brings to the court is decent D then he should shave his head and call himself Eric Montross.

The fact that his role has changed is a total cop-out excuse...the game is the same regardless when/where you come in....rebound, pass, put ball in hoop. I know that a simplification but you need to stop hiding behind this start/bench 4/5 thing.

Lastly, toughness/rebounding is NOT learned....if it is its during your formative years (long passed). Doug can you honestly say with a straight face you see AB becoming a better rebounder??
We all know that only 1-2 times a game does AB actually GO GET a rebound (its so rare you take note) the rest he gets cuz he's tall and there are only Raptors under the basket. I know for a fact you can't box out and rebound when you have your hands down at your waist (AB Im talking to you).

Like you say Doug, your record is what you are. Lets not jugde AB by his "potential" but look at what he's doing. I encourage debate on what I've said because from here its all reality.

As a final aside lets look at Andrew Bogut's third year numbers...seems like a fair comparison no? 7 footer, international player, #1 pick, drafted about the same age....
07-08 MIL 78 78 34.9 0.511 0.000 0.587 3.1 6.6 9.8 2.6 0.8 1.7 2.21 3.30 14.3
So 14 points 10 rebounds 3 assists compared to AB at 10 point and 4 rebounds (0.8 offensive) 0.9 assists...yes yes yes different styles of players but just look at production.
No I think a more fair comparison to AB is Darko Milicic and that equals BUUUUUUUST.

Will Doug Smith dodge these points and offer up another "its too soon give the kid time"?? Tune in tomorrow, same blog place same blog time.

Blogger's note: If you think you know what I'm going to say, why ask? If you check, I've suggested not too long ago that Bargnani needs to develop some toughness to get better as well as pointing out he needs a defined role. Can he still be a good player in the NBA? Yes, I believe so. As a centre or a four, not as a three. And the game is not nearly the same for a starting small forward than it is for a backup big man.

DougG

If Barg's value is still high around the league then opposing GMs ought to be willing to give up a potential super star to get him. If they are trying to steal him for nothing, just because the Bloor Street Bridge jumpers have turned on him, then I imagine BC will turn them down. You still have to assume that he is part of the future, and as a European, is likely to prefer living in Toronto to say, Cleveland. To me his youth is probably what is holding him back. He doesn't seem like he is fully engaged, mentally, in the game yet, like the older players. If BC does resist the urge of trading him I'd love to see Bellinelli here playing and growing with Bargnani.

Ivan H

Hey Doug, I was reading Ian Thomsen's article about the "too many Blazers on the court" fiasco during last night's Blazers/Celtics game and wanted to know what your thoughts were on the issue. If I were the refs, I would have charged the Blazers with a technical foul for their gaffe and then redo the final 10 seconds with Portland getting the ball.

Blogger's note: They followed the rule book, flawed though it may seem to be.

Jessie

What about Bargs, Parker and Graham for the Warriors' Brandon Wright, Stephen Jackson, and Marco Bellinelli? Cmon, that works for both teams. PULL THE TRIGGER B.C.!!!!

Mikey G

Why is everyone piling their pent up anger about Bargs onto Doug? It's not like he has the ability to trade the kid.

To all you rabid Raptors fans out there, calm down and change the channel if it makes you so mad, there are plenty of other teams in the NBA offering good basketball.

Happy New Year

Vince Lam

I would add Allen Iverson to that list of greatest players under 6 feet tall. He's listed at 6'0" but he has to be shorter than that. Just like how Dikembe Mutombo must be older than his listed age of 42.

John Smith

Lol @ the "AB I'm talking to you" comment. Are you really so delusional that you think that

A) Bargnani reads the comments section of this Blog (not that this isn't a fine blog)

B)He really cares what some Joe Nobody thinks?

I'm sure AB woke up this morning and said to himself "you know, I've been struggling lately, I think I'll go to the comments section of Doug's blog to see if any of the fine Toronto BandWagonJumpers can offer up some useful advice, after all they seem to be such a knowledgeable bunch".

You realize a BLOG is a place where the author posts his OPINIONS right? Quit getting so bent out of shape just because they differ from your own. Doug isn't mandated to agree with you, or even with the majority of the Toronto BandWagonJumpers, if you can't deal with that, tough. I for one put much more stock in the opinion of the Award Winning Doug Smith, someone who has been covering the Raptors for many years now and who has inside information, than in that of Joe Nobody, somoene who doesn't understand the game and has too much time on his hands.

gdr

Any word on the TSN2 fiasco? You seem to be the only person that has semi-constant news and can actually give the readers any answers. Today is a prime example how they are jerking the fans/customers of Rogers around (Rogers shares the blame for all this, don't get me wrong). I was planning to watch US College Football Bowl games all afternoon, but have since realized that they are being shown on "The Deuce" (meaning they are the ONLY channel in Canada airing these games, even if you have the Rogers Sports pack). TSN1 has darts, an ironman competition and a sweden vs russia world jr. hockey game. C'mon, any decent human being can see how wrong these tactics are. When you watch a post-game Raps interview, after the game has been shown only on TSN2, the primary sponsor on the backdrop is Rogers. How ehtically wrong is this? Why am I paying Rogers $30 per month for their "Super Sports Pak" & RaptorsTV when I cannot watch the games I most want to see (see: RAPTORS!) Something's gotta give, soon! And it better be before MLSE calls about down payment on next season's seats. All things considered (world economy, team's overall attitude/play, TSN2 ordeal), what I payed for this year's season's tickets is now worth a fraction of that price! Thanks for letting me vent...

Nick D

Hey Doug is it just me or does Jose have a tough time defending the pick and roll? He seems to get caught up in the big man thats screening him and does not seem to really fight hard to get by the screen. I have seen Jose's defense progressing each season but his pick and roll defense gets my yelling at my T.V. sometimes. They miss T.J.'s speed and tenacity on the defensive end.

Sump

RE: Bellinelli

Agreed. I would love to see a second unit of Bellinelli, Parker, Joey, Hump, and Bargs. It would be AWESOME. Ukic should not be jerked around so much either. He would be the exact offensive punch we need and would be able to slide into the 2 as well to give room for Ukic. Parker is getting old and is expiring soon so we need a new young gunner in the squad and I keep hearing that Gerald Wallace is for sale. I don't think anyone would turn down leaving Charlotte for Toronto seeing as if we made a deal within the next few weeks we could upside as a contendor.

I WANNA HEAR ALL YOU RAPS FANS CHANTING THIS TONIGHT:

"LETS GO RAPTORS .... TSN2 SUCKS!"

LETS SAVE THE BOOS FOR WHEN VC IS IN TOWN ......

SY

Hi Doug,

The more I think about it the more I believe now is a good time to trade Bargnani (given that you said he still has a lot of value) + Parker for an elite guard like Butler or G.Wallace (or at least some guard of this caliber). #1) Without Bargnani in the trade, there's almost no chance we can get an elite guard in return (which means our season is more or less over) #2) If we trade Bargnani + Parker for an elite guard, I believe we still have a chance to make some noise in the payoff this season #3) Unless B.C. wants to trade O'neal during the summer of 09, given our salary constraint, I do not think there's much chance to sign an elite guard (I am not even sure if there's an elite guard available to be signed during the summer of 09) #4) Since Parker's contract is an expiring contract, hopefully, we can resign him and Rasho during the summer of 09 for much less (Parker to backup the new guard and Rasho to backup O'neal) #5) With an elite guard like Butler or Wallace, we have a much higher chance of retaining Bosh. #6) You need an elite guard no matter if you want a chance to compete in the NBA.

Basically, we are talking about putting 2 season and the chance of Bosh to remain in Toronto on the line because of one person - I just do not think it makes a lot of business sense.

Your thoughts?

-SY

Blogger's note: None, really. You've made your point quite emphatically.

Rob

I'm not sure how Bargnani has become the "sole" reason why this team is playing so poorly?. We won 47 games with him a couple of years ago. Theres, other players, coaches, and a GM who all have a hand in this season no?

Doug is right, the kid needs a defined (permanent) role. It's not an excuse, they have completley mismanaged this kids development. How many other 7 footers are asked to guard the perimeter? I dont see Ajinca, or the Lopez brothers being asked to guard Lebron or Carmelo. Have you? Maybe I'm missing something however if (and when) he is finally traded some other team will know to put him down on the block and say.. dont leave this spot!!.

Because of his unique SKILL set for a 7 footer, The Raptors utelized his 3 point shooting in year one and it caught other teams off guard however this may have stunted some growth. Most other bigs when drafted go right to a horrendous team and do not have the ability to even ATTEMPT a 3 (see Chris Bosh, Bogut etc..). Most bigs when drafted cannot shoot a lick which means they play down low (or they dont play at all)... this may accelerate their low post development. If Bargnani we're given the ball in the low post on more than 2 occassions per game (as with the start of the season) there may be a better outcome. This is not to say that he would be a 20-10 player however they certainly have not helped him either. Even Jermaine O'Neal only averaged 6 points and 3-4 boards though his first 4 or 5 years in the league.

The real problem is that any future development is unlikely to happen playing behind O'Neal & Bosh because it doesnt matter which one is in the game, the offense will run through them and Bargnani will inevitably end up in the high post. Having O'Neal dominate the ball on the block may punish "some" teams however the end result has not been Wins. So the question should be asked, was the JO trade a successful trade?. We have a weaker bench because of this.

Colangelo is going to have to make a decision. If the JO trade is deemed a failure (from a CHEMISTRY standpoint) then he should be moved for immediate cap space & wing (insert Shawn Marrion and Bargnani plays as a permanent defensive center with the offense running through Bosh. If they like the way things are going with JO, then Bargnani should be moved for the wing we need. The Raps will not have their cake and be able to eat it. Either they play the kid at 5 alongside Bosh...or it's time to move on!!! When you pick first overall you cannot STASH this pick away for future use (there's too much attention and pressure on the pick). Waiting until O'Neal comes off the books to insert him at center is not an option... or could be, but it will be a long 1 1/2 years.

The problem here is either way the GM is going to have to eat some crow (and make the right decision) so it's a tough decision. Does he trade his #1 pick (doesnt look good) or the center he just traded for to anchor the defense. IMO, one of them must be moved along with filler to obtain the wing we MUST have.

If the Raptors cannot commit the center position to their number 1 pick in an effort to develop him (you cant play him at 4 for obvious reasons) ... then whats the point? You do not draft a guy first overall with the intention that he will come off the bench as an energy guy to hoist up 3's. Geez, you could pick up a Bobby Jackson for next to nothing who would better suit that role.

Doug, there are most likely trades available for Colangelo to make (at this very moment) however how much posturing goes into trade discussions? i.e does Colangelo float Bargnani's name in November to see what the interest level is at first, then maybe pull him off the table, posture another month until he's out of the shooting funk etc... in an effort to drive up the asking price?

Blogger's note: Trade talks are fluid, there might be discussions that began last February that might be revisited now.

Alex L

Tough day at the office for Doug! I think people get passionate (crazy?) about Bargnani because he was #1 pick. No one is gonna get all frothy mouth over Solomon or Humphreys because no one expects much from them and they didnt cost us much....but Bargnani was the only #1 pick this franchise has ever had and that means something. Expectations are high and debate on if he has produced are justified IMO.

HAPPY NEW YEAR DOUG, HERE'S TO HEALTH HAPPINESS AND WINS IN 2009!!!!

mw

why do people not realize that Colangelo made the mistake of drafting Bargnani. Not because he is no good but because we already had Bosh and Charlie V. Therefore we had 3 players who are natural power forwards. Bargs has been yanked around because Bosh plays his natural position. This is why the pick was so wrong. If we had drafted Roy, we would have had Roy, Bosh and Charlie V. With Jose coming along at the point. And Colangelo gets millions for this.. jokes pure jokes

SY

Rob,

I cannot agree w/ you more. However, I think that it is much easier to move Bargnani than O'Neal given his massive contract. Imagine, if we managed to pull a Bargnani + Parker for Wallace trade (as there are reports saying he's on sale). Our starting line-up for the rest of the season:

Bosh/Humpries/Nathan
O'Neal/Jake
Jose/Ukic/Solomon
Wallace/Graham
Kapono/Moon/Adams

Given this line-up, I truly believe we have a chance to make the playoff and, with the rite situation, we may surprise a few.

In the offseason, hopefully, we can resign Rasho and Parker (or even Delfino since I am reading the possibility of him returning to the NBA). Starting line-up for 2009-2010 -

Bosh/Humpries/Nathan
O'Neal/Rasho
Jose/Ukic
Wallace/Parker/Graham
Kapono/Moon

Three of our bench players used to be our starters. We still have our first round draft for summer of 2009. We still have our financial flexibility for summer of 2010 - O'Neal's massive contract. I truly believe we are in a pretty good situation for years to come - Bosh, 23, Jose, 27, Wallace, 26 and Kapono, 27. We can even resign O'Neal if he is w/ a bargaining price.

All this from just one trade away.

-SY

Mix Masta Mike

Good points Rob. Its true Bargs needs to stay in one place and not be confused into thinking he is a guard. Starting 5 would be best me thinks.
being third in a 3 man big rotation has made it very hard to improve and feel part of things. One must be traded for a wing to create better balance.
It should be noted that JO only averaged 11 minutes his first 4 years, then was traded to Indiana and blew up. Sometimes that what it takes.

I think fans dont know what Raps want to do with his game and thats frustrating. If he wants to be a low post player, defends and rebounds, Im happy with that even if his scoring drops.
If Bargs wants to be a Dirk-like shooting big, Im happy with that too....but he cant continue to lay bricks like a mason.
When he doesnt shoot well, and doesnt rebound, that's when fans get ornery. I think Bargs true game lies somewhere in the middle...a bit of Bogut and Dirk, but so far we have only seen rare glimpses and thats whats frustrating.
Maybe his natural spot is as a starting 4 and that means trade?
MMM

Bill Rogers

C'mon now obviously I know Andrea Bargnani does not read this blog, I was simply calling him out as a player who consistenly has his hands down when the ball goes up and if you do that you will get beat by someone ready every single time. That's Bargnani in a nutshell.
Can he learn grit and toughness? Time will tell. I think that's the only true debate because his current contribution is written in his numbers...and they are not good.

I was however amused that a poster would mock me for my rhetoric but offered nothing to disagree with my points. Of course this blog is Dougs and is a vessel for his opinion but if Doug did not want or could not handle any debate he would remove the comment feature. I mean no disrespect to Doug but simply disagree on his assessment of Bargnani.

All I want is some candor when it comes to AB's play. I know its negative to bust on someone for being a bust but.....look at the top 3 picks from the last 10 drafts (I did). I have Bargnani tied with Marvin Williams and ahead of only Adam Morrison, Darko Milicic, Darius Miles, Raef Lafrentz, Stromile Swift, Michael Olowokandi and uber-bust Kwame Brown. That's not very heady company.
I would place AB behind players like Ben Gordon, Okafor, J-Will (pre-accident), Bogut, Beasly and Oden (they are rooks but haven't been that impressive).
All these players are behind the "stars" otherwise taken at 1-2-3.

I just get irritated that his play is being sugar coated. I know he is "skilled" but so were Kareem Rush and James White. Skills alone do not make a player. Playing well does.
Maybe Im just so hyped up because as was noted he is TO's first and last #1 pick and at the time I had so much hope it could turn around this mediocre franchise, and I've thus far been very let down.

Tim W.

Doug, I don't always agree with you, but usually give you the benefit of the doubt because you're not a new basketball fan Your statement about Bargnani improving his rebounding by moving full-time to C or PF, however, is a little deluded. I remember some fans having same argument about Charlie Villanueva when he was a Raptor as you have with Bargnani. They have the same faults and strengths. People claimed that Villanueava's lack of getting to the line and mediocre rebounding numbers were due to him playing SF and being pushed to the perimeter by Sam Mitchell. He then was traded to Milwaukee where he played PF and had exactly the same weaknesses. He rarely got to the line and had mediocre rebounding numbers. One just has to look at other players in the last 20 years to see that those skills don't suddenly improve when a player changes position. Besides, when Bargnani HAS played center or PF, he still has difficulty rebounding and getting to the line. It's who he is. He's a big man who is much more comfortable on the perimeter. It's not like he's the first big man who liked to stay outside despite the urging of coaches. The NBA has a looong list of them. 99 times out of 100, they don't change.

My biggest problem with Bargnani becoming an inside scorer is that he is extremely mechanical down there. He's obviously not comfortable and not making moves instinctively. He's certainly no Kevin McHale. He doesn't score often when he gets the ball in the post, and retreats to the perimeter quickly. It's like getting Shaq to become a high post player. It's not who he is.

And I wish people would not assume that criticizing Bargnani is meant to say that he is the sole reason the Raptors are losing. That's a cop-out. I would like to see Bargnani traded because he might bring in pieces the Raptors need. A team like Chicago or Golden State could actually use Bargnani and have pieces the Raptors could use in return. I focus on him more than others because he is the biggest tradable asset the Raptors have, outside of their core three, and could get a decent return. And people probably criticize him more than others because people defend him more than others. If someone says that Bargnani is a future MVP candidate, I am going to have something to say about it. I don't hear anyone talking up Humphries very much.

Lastly, I hate the word `hater' when describing someone who criticizes another player. If you call someone a hater, it's a way out of actual intelligent debate. I don't hate Bargnani, but I didn't like it when he was picked, I don't want him on the Raptors, and I really don't think he's ever going to be the player many believe he will be. I have solid, concrete reasons for this. I can cite statistics, other players throughout the history of the league, and more than 20 years of studying the NBA to back up my claims.

Archie gillespie

Hey Doug, happy new year in advance. Well seeing as how the topic de jour is Bargnani, I thought I'd toss this in. I think some fans (like myself) sometimes question his heart and whether he cares or not. Much of this perception is based on what this fan sees on the tellie and his lack of outward emotion. This appears to be his personal makeup and just the way he is and it's too bad it can be misconstrued as a lack of desire. He really is the antithesis of the Garnetts of the world, which some would say is a good thing, but what this fan wouldn't give to see him pump a fist or scream on occasion. Would it make him a better player? Who's to say, but in the entertainment industry of which he's part of, it may charge up fans and maybe, just maybe, some of those shots might start falling. Ironically Italian footballers are amongst the most emotional and intense athletes in the world, too bad some of this didn't rub off on him. Anyway as a person who gets to see these guys from a more intimate viewpoint and get a better sense of this type of thing I'm sure you can confirm that the kid really cares and is passionate about what he does.

Jman

Top players under 6'?? How can ANYONE leave out Nate 'Tiny' Archibald? Who else other than him has led the league in scoring AND assists in the same year?

Archie- what about Duncan? He doesn't display much emotion either. Not that I'm comparing Bargs to Timmy.....

Blogger's note: Tiny Archibald was listed at 6-1, trust me, I checked.

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