Good morning from Atlanta; where's Sam?

Are they done? Does is matter if they find a way to go 24-16 the rest of the way and sneak into seventh or eighth with 40 wins, which is what I think it will take?

RICHARD LAUTENS/TORONTO STAR

18 assists for Nash, including one of the all-time best passes.

I think squeezing into the final one or two playoff spots is not going to make this even a passably successful season, although it will be better than the alternative.

It’s always better to be in the playoffs rather than out of them, in my opinion; the draft is too much of a crapshoot, any player you get in the late stages of the lottery takes too long to develop before he makes a significant contribution.

But that’s just me.

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Action: AP as the point guard

Reaction: Another good day

I’d say 26 points and five assists is a pretty solid day for the newbie.

And I would fully expect him to start this afternoon here in Atlanta against the Hawks and Mike Bibby with Joey Graham guarding Joe Johnson. But as a long-term fix? I don’t see Parker getting all that much time at the point when Jose gets back, which should be sometime this week.

Parker’s stuff works against the likes of Steve Nash, who isn’t going to guard him full court, who isn’t particularly quick or, sometimes, all that interested in defence.

If teams start guarding Parker for 94 feet, like I expect Detroit will, and Atlanta might, I’m not sure AP has the ball-handling skills or quickness to get Toronto into its offence.

Maybe – maybe – he gets a very few minutes backing up Calderon but that’s it. They need him as the two-guard for his regular minutes when the regular point guard is available.

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I think it would be totally hilarious if Sam showed up here this afternoon wearing a fake beard and moustache and sat in the front row right across from the Toronto bench.

And it would be entirely cool if he then invited the grunts out for dinner.

Neither, I suspect, will happen.

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A question, which leads to a list.

Q: What have you learned that you hadn't expected to at this point of the season? That Dave D'Alessando, while a terrific b-ball writer, is lacking in his assessments of athletic shooting guards? That Jorge Garbajosa deserves even more credit for the season two years ago than anyone realized? That it is crucial to have at least one backup point guard with NBA experience? Or the slow unraveling this is the best thing that could have happened, in the long-run, since the Raps have assets - O Neal, Kapono and Parker - that teams (Orlando for instance) could use if they feel they need for a run at the title? If possible, I'd like to see your top 5 list. Many thanks.

Jason P, Nova Scotia

A: I’m giving Dave a pass on Hassan Adams ‘cause no one could have known a guy clinging to a pro basketball career would come in to camp in the same physical condition as me.

What have I learned? Not sure it’s learned as much as had confirmed:

You cannot win in this league without consistent, athletic play and scoring from twos and threes. It’s a simple fact that’s hammered home repeatedly in Toronto games.

There were two glaring holes on this team last summer – interior defence and athleticism on the wings. They addressed one with the O’Neal trade but didn’t take care of the other.

And that’s the reason they are where they are more than anything else.

The rest of the top five, in order

Andrea Bargnani should have been left as a five all season.

Jose Calderon’s health was the most vital thing to protect.

Firing a coach in the first week of December is using the big bullet way too early.

Fans are crazy. In a good way. Most of the time.

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I’ll tell you something, I’m watching the highlights of the Suns game here on ESPN at the moment and they just show the low, 45-foot bounce pass Nash threw to Barbosa for a layup and I will reiterate what I wrote in the in-game blog yesterday.

That was the best pass I can remember in any of the games I’ve been at this season. And it’s probably in the top five I can remember all-time.

Going at full speed and making any long pass is tough, going full speed, threading the needle between two defenders and hitting a teammate in full stride is magic.

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Action: Bench scoring discrepancy

Reaction: You expected otherwise?

Phoenix gets 33 points from its bench, Toronto gets 14 from its.

Duh! With no disrespect to the men, but a group of Roko Ukic, Will Solomon, Kris Humphries and Jake Voskuhl does not strike fear in the hearts of anyone.

The better question is probably: “How’d they get 14?”

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In Phoenix, after wading through all the Cardinal stuff, they read this today. Here in Atlanta, this is what we woke up tothanks to Cousin Sekou.

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Things you see in an airport in the wee, wee hours of the morning: A family – I presume Mom, Dad, a couple of urchins and a very yappy, very tiny dog on a leash – hanging out at the luggage carousel at 1:15 a.m. Sad, really.

Oh, and we being wise, declining the offer from illegal cab drivers –- or drivers impersonating cabbies at 1:30 a.m. – was one of the smartest things we did.

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Action: Nash (hearts) Toronto

Reaction: Don’t order the jerseys yet

This from Captain Canada post-game

“To play in Toronto would be a dream come true in a lot of ways. I have spent my summers here playing for the national team for about a decade, since I was a teenager. I have tons of friends and a lot of people here that I care about and it is one of the world’s premier cities and that, coupled with the fact … that I love what the team has done here, it’s an understandable situation.

“But I love playing in Phoenix, I built a home and a career there .. The Phoenix Suns are playing well and that is probably going to be a No. 1 priority for me but, if not, Toronto would have been on top of the list as far as considering other markets.”

That’s as much a shot across the bow at the Suns management as anything.

My best guess, and that’s all it is (like everyone else) is that he ends up in New York with Mike D’Antoni. Toronto? A remote possibility. Very remote. But him using Toronto as a shining example of somewhere he’d like to go can’t hurt.

Just don’t order the jerseys yet.

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Hmm, an interesting query:

Q: Hi Doug, I was at the game (Sunday) and have a burning, trade-related question: when the lineup changes, what happens to the opening video?! Do they splice in some clips of Marion grooving to Flo Rida? Thanks, and great work as usual.

Kate D, Toronto

A: Ooh, maybe it’s a way they can change the whole thing. I imagine that’d make more than a few people happy.

A nice Motown tune, maybe?

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And, finally, I’m hearing whispers that Nathan Jawai may be on his way to the D League soon to get some game work in. I’m not sure how much it will improve him – the D League is much more a guard and wing league than it is a big man’s proving ground – but it will help his conditioning.

And it’s not like the Raptors, with the schedule the way it is in the next couple of weeks, are going to have a lot of practice time, which is where the rookie’s getting his work in up here.

Comments

[Patrick]

Good morning Doug,

Provided that the "O'Neal-Marion" deal eventually gets done, do you see the Raptors making a follow-up trade in order to thin out the glut of swingmen (Marion, Parker, Moon, Graham, Kapono... you could even toss Solomon and possibly Marcus Banks into the mix as scoring point guards)?

Perhaps to acquire a more athletic 2-guard (in a 2 for 1 type deal) or a back-up big man?

Thanks and have a great MLK day!

Blogger's note: Another trade wouldn't completely surprise me but I'm not sure BC has much to offer that teams would want.

[pete]

Hey Doug, being from Australia, I have observed Nate Jawai's game a few times last year. While I know he is very raw, he appeared to have a semi-decent jumpshot from 12-15 feet, and while being quite bulky, he still has decent athleticism. Have the coaching staff observed, and will these tools enable him to play a role in the team (not for a few years though, I know)? I for one hope so!

[JH]

If The raps are able to clear cap space for this summer, how would you rank the free agents? Odom, Marion, Artest, Turkoglu.

Blogger's note: haven't really thought about it. Probably Turkoglu, Odom, Marion, Artest.

[MartinH]

I predict Toronto will start playing well with about 15 to 20 games left in the season, but it will be too little, too late, and they will just fail to make the playoffs, by the tiniest of margins.

Now that getting one of the top GMs in the league, has also resulted in miserable failure, I wonder what they try next.

[RS]

Doug,

If the Raps end up making this Marion trade, which puts them under the cap, do you think the goal would be to move another contract to clear up more space?

I've never thought much of Kapono as an overall basketball player (great shooter, terrible defender, rebounder, dribbler and commits too many silly fouls). On a good team where they are strong defensively and in terms of rebounding, he could be a key piece, the Raps just aren't good enough in those areas.

If the Raps can get an expiring contract for Kapono from a good team needing a shooter, do you think they would? I would in a heartbeat to go from $14M to $20M under the cap. Hell, I'd do it even if the Marion trade didn't go through.

Thanks,
RS

[Claudio DiG.]

Just in the wake of Friday's defeat to the Pacers you wrote about Parker: "Neither of the guards were doing anything and desperate times called for desperate measures. I don't imagine it becomes a regular thing". In Sunday's game, A.P. regularly played at the point position. It happens, in fact, to miss the up-coming, but sometimes I wonder: why not? It's funny: being a journalist just expose yourself, without having any special clue to be traced in the Stars. As for the playoffs, please stop talking about. There's no way they can win more than other 16 games in the future. Regards

Blogger's note: It won't become a regular thing. Calderon will come back and start, they need AP at the two-guard and he may get a minute or two at PG but nothing regular. And that's not just me, that was the coach, yesterday

[Joe T.]

Doug, while I tend to agree with your statement that "Firing a coach in the first week of December is using the big bullet way too early.", it's interesting to see how things have gone thus far this season for the teams that used that bullet:

Minnesota: Randy Wittman (.211) repllced by Kevin McHale (.421)
OKC: P.J. Carlesimo (.077) replaced by Scott Brooks (.241)
Philadelphia: Maurice Cheeks (.391) replaced by Tony DiLeo (.647)
Sacramento: Reggie Theus (.250) replaced by Kenny Natt (.235)
Toronto: Sam Mitchell (.471) replaced by Jay Triano (.320)
Washington: Eddie Jordan (.091) replaced by Ed Tapscott (.250)

While I'm sure there are other factors in each teams' case, at the end of the day it's the Team's (and Coach's) W-L record that matters. Every other team that used that bullet this season has improved, in most cases dramatically! OK, Sacramento has stayed essentially the same. Toronto? I consider winning the same number of games (8) while losing nearly twice as many (17 vs. 9) a SIGNIFICANT slide. Perhaps it speaks to Bryan Colangelo's essential failure to change the culture of losing around this team more than anything. He seems to have no clear vision for the Raptors and decision after decision seems to not work out. I hope they finish the season well but even then, I think we'll be looking at another step backward relative to the season before. I guess that "culture of losing" is just too strong...

[Kelsie]

I'd like to remain positie today but it's hard when your team suits up for each game and their prospects for winning is never certain and usually turns out the opposite way. The fans are mad cause this team was trumpeted as a 50 win team by the GM and management. They are far from that and at times their effort has appeared lethargic which is a non-no in Toronto.

The GM fired the coach who was 8-9 at the time. We have seen where we are currently in the overall standings and it's obvious the result of what he was trying to accomplish didn't work.

The J.O trade in hindsight was a bad one which the GM is acknowledging with his effort in now trying to trade J.O. I firmly believe that if we still had TJ and Rasho on this roster our record would be better. I know "TJ had to go" but I still prefer TJ as a pg over Jose (I do like Jose) and J.O outside of his general toughness hasn't given us what we expected at a price tag of over $20 million. Good intentions, bad move by BC.

With the expected Marion trade, I am assuming this is being done to try and improve the team as soon as possible. My issue is, with all the expected extra money available when Marion is off the boooks, what will be done with it? I am not confident at this point in time that any future moves will be ones that take us to the top of the NBA landscape, cause they have trumpeted all of these previous moves intended to make us a contender and we have gone backwards. More money is great but what will BC do with it? The 2010 free agent list has sure fire help but not this 2009 free agent class. I don't see major roster improvement unless it's via trade or sign and trade for Marion and after this J.O stuff, BC has lost me giving him the benefit of the doubt in any future trade scenarios.

The coach of the team has said that being aggressive is not in these players make up. Why as a GM would you willingly obtain a roster full of non-aggressive players in an ultra aggressive sport???

Doug, why has BC not received the majority of the blame for whats happened? Everyone is at fault to a degree but the major issues with this team are lack of talent. A team comprised of jump shooters and no play makers or creators. A team that while they are nice guys do not have the moxie or nastiness needed to succeed in this sport. A team at the brink of the salary cap with not many assets or cap room to improve. A team with a lame-duck coach who has a worse record than the previous one (I like Jay but you don't down grade coaches before mid-year and still have the nerve to call yourself a contender). A team that has performed below everyones expectations.

I'm not trying to post more " blog venom" cause it's tired and we're all frustrated with the same things but why is BC not being called out more often for being a key contributor to the problems with this team in your opinion?

[Joe T.]

Re: Yesterday's CoverItLive Blog

I read that Jamario Moon has added high socks to his recent addition of the headband. Does that set automatically come with (my favourite Raptor ever) JYD's hustle and nose for the ball?...

[Jamie Buckingham]

hey Doug

Read the blog yesterday and the follow up report (video) after the game. It is nice to see you have come to reality and stopped sugar coating this bad team. It is what it is, which is a bad team, and after listening to hundreds of Leafs reporters shoving down our throats all the positives about that losing team. It is a pleasure to hear that all though you still love the Raps, they suck!

I hope we trade for expiring contracts, free up some cap, and draft a solid young rookie that will help with athletisim right away.

Blogger's note: Your assumption about me is dead wrong. This is my job, as I've mentioned about, oh, a billion times

[SY]

O'Neal for Marion + Banks. I'll do it in a second. 1) We have an upgrade on the wing over moon. 2) Extra financial flexibility this summer with 17 million coming off the books 3) Now that the Blazer is hit w/ Miles' contract - we can probably get some good pieces w/ Parker's expiring contract. Parker + Moon for Outlaw + (Fernandez, Rodriguez or Batum). Probably resign rasho and parker during the offseason.....Not bad at all.

-SY

[Matt]

hey doug, got another question for you.

There have been reports that riley says the deal is far from imminent and anyone who thinks it is is putting the cart before the horse. I know thats typically what all GM's will say about a trade, we heard it last season regarding JO when Bird denied the talks and someone said the talks have cooled down. Then the next day the deal is done, i dont expect a deal to be done today because league offices are closed. Maybe tomorrow and i think JO might get limited minutes to show riley hes ok. I think the reason he didnt play against the suns was because he would have to guard the likes of Shaq and Amare and the way shaq leans on you puts stress on your knees. I see him going up against solomon jones tonight or someone of that caliber. Anyways what have you heard regarding this deal is it close to being done, funny how both marion, banks and JO didnt play yesterday. Its all so fishy, have you also heard of a three way deal involving Dallas, Toronto and Miami. So any news on the Marion deal or the three way deal. I know a lot of questions but i would love to hear your feed back doug keep up the great work.

Blogger's note: I wrote what I've heard, it's probably not going to happen in the next 24 or 48 hours or even this week. Nothing Riley said in his statement surprised me

[Darko Dubajic]

Do we still call Shaq one of the top 5 centres of all time if he is not more protected by the refs than (holy) cows in India.
Kareem had the hook shot, Olajuwon had Dream shake ... as their signature move, what would you tell your grandkids was Shaq's move.

Blogger's note: Raw power and speed. And the two best centres ever, in many people's opinions, Russell and Wilt lacked "signature" moves

[darko daubajic]

Do we realy need to take Banks of their hands. Could this latest rumor about Josh for Marion simply be Riley trying to get BC to bite on Banks.
On another note, you mentioned that 2 things needed upgrade this summer, interior D and wings. Now I will assume here wings in a sense more 2-3 rather than 3-4. If we trade JO for Marion,would that not be step backward or back to square one since Marion is neither of those two things that we need and at least JO was the answer to one of them.

[Simon S-G]

Hey Doug Toronto Sun says an Odom and spares for JO trade could work. What do you think?

Blogger's note: Lots of things would "work," few make sense

[Lavi]

Hey Doug,
Did JO travel with the team to Atlanta?

Blogger's note: As mentioned since Sunday about noon, yes

[Mike kovacs]

Re the observation that the teams that changed their coaches have ( mostly ) done better. There is a statistical explanation for this - it is called 'regression to the mean'. Granted winning and losing is not a random event but if you flip a coin 5 times and get 5 heads, if you flip it another 95 times you will be a lot closer to 50 heads than 100!

[jmb]

Regarding signature moves, wouldn't you say that Wilt had two of them? A turn-around bank shot early in his career, and then the classic finger roll through the remainder?

[Chris S.]

Hey Doug, do you think there is any chance that the Raptors could get Joel Anthony back as part of this deal? He is a solid defender who can block shots and it would be really nice to see a Canadian on Canada's team, also, have the Raptors ever had a Canadian player on the team in the regular season before?

Blogger's note: No. And no

[Joe T.]

Re: "regression to the mean". I appreciate the statistical explanation but as you said, Mike, winning and losing is not a random event. The idea behind the coaching changes was salvaging seasons which had gotten off to a bad start in the winning and losing department. For the Raptors, that hasn't worked either. It appears now that the next season-salvaging move might be trading this year's big acquisition. Perhaps a better idea would be deciding the rest of the games with a coin toss! They might win another 20 that way...

[chris]

I hate the trade. Marion will be an addition, but with Banks we're just 10-11mm under the cap in a summer where there is (by my count) one good free agent (Marvin Williams).

Did we basically trade TJ, Rasho, and a first for 6mm in cap space (we would have had the MLE otherwise)?

Blogger's note: It's actually probably going to be closer to $14 million and it may not be about free agents, it may be about future trades.

[Andre]

i say the raptors look to the draft.. Trade for marion, then trade AP and someone else for Watson and one of the thunders 1st round draft picks. and trade JK to the suns for barbosa... if they draft properly, and Jawai develops, we should have a decent team next year. (not saying Jawai is a star or anything, but rebound and defense inside would help)

[David]

I'm a bit skeptical, Doug, about your conclusion that BC doesn't have a followup move to make to an O'Neal trade, should that deal come to pass. Any significant reduction of 2009-10 salary obligations would give BC a great deal of latitude at the deadline to deal our expiring contracts - Parker, Moon, Graham and Solomon can all be traded - for longer contracts. For example,Golden State has a surplus of pricey wing players as well as some very attractive prospects to sweeten a deal. Trading expirings would keep the Raptors over the cap and allow the team to re-sign Carlos Delfino and maybe use its Mid-level Exception, while using cap space in the summer on a player like Marvin Williams wouldn't leave the Raptors with much else to sign free agents to round out the roster. They probably add more talent by trading expirings than by gambling on this summer's small crop of significant free agents.

[Brad]

Would you say that the team being 10 games under .500 is a surprise?

I would guess that if someone had asked you or BC or lots of league observers how we would look without Jose and JO, you would have said that they were bound to be an awful team while they were out. I'm actually surprised we've been in as many games as we have lately. Not that it matters, cause we're still 10 games down.

[Sean]

I understand the angst about the team nowadays, but what is with the revisionist history trashing the JO trade? (See Feschuk's article/Cox's blog) Does anyone seriously believe that this team would be better with TJ Ford? The guy has only played 4 more games this year than JO, with an assortment of injuries that makes him look like an Operation board. And, JO's contract, while heftier, gives the team much more flexibility than TJ's terrible deal. It sucked to give up Rasho, but outside of that no one can blame this brutal season on BC's trade. The Raps are 10 games under for two reasons: Jose's hammy and the lack of any respectable wing players, it has little or nothing to do with JO.