Some talk about the trade chatter

So what do we all make of this O’Neal-Marion proposal?

Good? Bad? Shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic?

Probably more good than bad but, again, a gamble like every significant transaction is.

But, before anyone rushes out to grab up black Marion Raptor jerseys, take heed of this paragraph in this morning’s story:

“O'Neal, according to sources and various Internet reports, has told friends and acquaintances that he expects to be dealt to Miami. League sources tell the Star that nothing is expected to happen in the next 24 or 48 hours and it could be more than a week before any deal is finalized.”

What I got in various conversations yesterday was that the parameters are in place but nothing is going to get signed off on today or tomorrow or the next day. Things might escalate now but things might also bog down. And like any story of this nature, there are still ways it could get messed up and fall apart.

From Toronto’s end, and this has very little to do with O’Neal as a player or a person, it’s hard not to like this trade.

It frees up a defined roll for Andrea Bargnani, who looks like he can handle it.

It improves the wing rebounding situation, even if Marion’s a terrible three-point shooter (a whopping 19 per cent this year).

It gives Bryan Colangelo more financial flexibility more quickly and that’s never a bad thing. And it’s not just to look for free agents this coming summer. By being so far under the cap (somewhere around $14 million by the rough, early math and rough, early math is all we’ve got right now) he could do things like acquire top talent in a trade as easily as signing some free agent to a new deal. And if he doesn’t, he’d still have all kinds of financial possibilities as he moves on towards 2010.

The Banks contract’s a bad one but not horrific. It tops out at $4.8 million in 2010-11, hardly an immovable number.

The downside? O’Neal, when he’s been healthy, has been as advertised. Imposing interior defensive presence and shot-blocker and his offence was getting into shape before the latest setback. No one can tell me that a frontcourt rotation of Bosh, Bargnani and one of Humphries or Jake Voskhuhl is as a good Bosh-Bargnani-O’Neal, it’s simply not true.

Marion’s a bit of a gamble, too. He thrived in the zany, no-conscience offence in Phoenix and struggled at times in Miami; you tell me which Toronto more closely resembles. But he is in a contract year and, at 30 years old, would hopefully be motivated to finish this season strongly.

Here’s my bottom line: Toronto’s 16-25 and freefalling and it’s obvious something has to be done to salvage as much of this season as possible.

This injects athleticism into the lineup and frees up the mind of the one guy (Bargnani) who’s is improving by leaps and bounds.

I'd sure make this deal. 

Comments

[Ryan]

I would too, although I like O'Neal and he has been classy off the court. Doug, do you happen to know what kind of a locker room influence he has been, and would it change with Marion instead?

Blogger's note: Don't imagine there'd be any discernible difference.

[Josh F]

The reason why I would also welcome the Marion JO trade is as follows:

I got this info from yahoo! sports:
i) Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon's combined averages are:
17ppg, 7.8rpg, 3.7apg

ii)Shawn Marion's stats are:
12.3ppg 9.2rpg and 1.9apg

iii) Shawn Marion and Anthony Parker's combined stats are:
22.1ppg 12.5rpg 4.4apg

Now, of course stats don't tell the whole story, but when you look at them, it's like an instant 5ppg increase, 5rpg increase and about an extra assist each outing.

I also like to point out that with bigs commanding double teams Marion would get more touches in Toronto than he does with shot happy Wade. And while Marion's 3pt average this year is nothing to write home about, doesn't everyone already cringe when moon launches 3's?

I'll be the first one to say that Marion won't win the raps a NBA Championship, he'll at the very least solidify Toronto a playoff spot.

Doug, what's your take on the amount of touches Marion would receive in Toronto compared to Wade's Miami?

Cheers, as always from far off Ningbo.

Blogger's note: No take, sorry. Let's see if the deal gets finalized and then we'll talk about roles.

[Wilber]

Did Colangelo sign Marcus Banks to his contract, or was that after he left Phx?

[dallas]

Let's hope for big games from Oneal, who I could imagine, wouldn't mind, if he hat to be traded, going to Miami, where it's hot, where he has a home, where he get's to play with Wade, where all of a sudden he's in the playoff hunt. O'neal has said good things about Toronto, but that sounds like an upgrade that would be appealing to anyone.

Nice article on Wayne Embry, Doug. But I could of sworn this was teased to be coming weeks ago???

Blogger's note: Not sure if it was teased or not, been thinking about needing to do it for a while, the timing now made most sense. And thanks.

[OA]

O'Neal is a good player and an upstanding guy, but he makes a top five salary in the NBA. Would anyone argue that he is a top five player? I'm one of those crazy fans who believes this team is one elite wing player (and a few minor moves) away from being a contender. 21 million buys a lot of talent in the NBA. This is a good move by Colangelo if it comes off. Marcus Banks, unfortunately for him, will now become the new official whipping boy of the Raptors.

[Joe T.]

I think this is a great move and would make it in a second, too. Jermaine O'Neal did what was expected of him here in Toronto. It's not his fault he was not the type of player this team needs. That's on the GM (as was Fred Jones and losing Garbo). And it's a great deal for O'Neal, too, because if his health holds up, he'll get to play basketball at the end of April. I don't think that will happen for him if he remains a Raptor...

[sg60]

Doug,

I think your assessment of the trade from the Raptors perspective is pretty much right on the money. The question is would Miami make this deal and forego Marion's salary coming off the books for another year in the hope that O'Neal's health would keep him in the line-up and producing. If he can stay on the court he can certainly be an asset as he showed us before he got hurt and I think this would make him more valuable to the Heat than Marion. I'm not a big Marion fan but he's capable of doing a lot of the things the raptors need and his $18 million comes off the books at the end of this year which gives us the flexibility to fix some of our glaring weaknesses.

Blogger's note: Miami needs another big, they can't make much noise with Haslem, Blount, Magloire and Anthony. And the salary comes off when they want it to come off, in 2010. Next summer would only be a bonus to them.

[AG]

You don't mention much about Banks. What are your thoughts on him? How does he fit in when we clearly already have enough trouble sorting out our PG position? And he's hardly played in Miami.

I'm surprised the Raptors couldn't have favoured Joel Anthony. I'd love to see him back in Canada banging bodies for the Raptors.

Blogger's note: He can't beat out a rookie or Chris Quinn in Miami for even limited minutes. I'm not sure he'd have much impact anywhere

[Kyron]

@ Wilber

Marcus Banks signed with Phoenix after Colangelo left. That was all D'Antoni right there

[Matt]

Doug love the blog, i asked you a question yesterday, love to hear you clear this one i have for you up as well.

I dont get why Banks would be included maybe James Jones+Magloire with Moon going the other way. Say if we got rid of Kapono's contract for an expiring. 5 million expiring to be exact. We would have a total of 34, 578, 689 in cap space this summer(magloire, Marion, Parker, Graham, Solomon, Voskhul, Garbos contract+ 5 million expiring for Kapono) Could we not go strong after marvin Williams(11 million). And Offer Ben Gordon say 9 million. We could then sign Delfino to about 4 million and a backup big for cheap (2-3 million)

Calderon/Roko
Gordon/Delfino
Williams/Jones
Bosh/Hump
Bargnani/FA(2-3 Million)

+ fill out the rest of the roster with minimum players. We would be a threat in the east for a while, young talent and a good bench, i dont think many could compete with us

Blogger's note: Think of the fact there's two sides in every trade and maye the Heat have no interest in anyone other than JO and don't want to part with Jones.
The rest? That's for the summer

[Simon S-G]

Think about this: almost a year after the Miami-Phoenix deal (Marion and Marcus Banks for Shaquille O'Neal) it will again be Marion and Banks for O'Neal, albeit a different O'Neal but still quite ironic.

[JJ]

I'm pretty sure that the Marcus Banks contract was post-Colangelo in Phoenix.

If you've read 7 Seconds or Less (one of the best basketball books), you'll know that Mike D'Antoni and the Phoenix coaching staff considered Marion to be their best defensive player by far and he would always draw the top assignment. To that staff, Marion was their most irreplaceable player (or 2nd to Nash).

Also, he's one of the best rebounding small forwards in the game, and considering the Raptors perennial rebounding woes, that has to help some. Plus, he can guard four positions. And the Raps can play Marion at 4 occasionally to go with a small-bay line up which should make it easier to run more like Jay wants.

Doug, are you positive that the Raps need to take back an extra contract to make the salaries match? I have seen different numbers for Marion's and O'Neal's salaries, but as long as they are within 25% of each other (plus $100 000), the Raps shouldn't have to take back an additional player.

And if they do have to take back an additional player, why not Dorrell Wright? He's contract is worth less and he's a free agent for the summer of 2010. Plus, he has played in only one game this year. At one point, I think he was thought to have some potential, but maybe not anymore. I'm not saying he'd help the Raptors more, but his contract would be more palatable.

Or is it a matter of the Heat wanting to dump Banks's contract and the only way they agree to the trade is if the Raptors take on Bank's contract?

[Andrew R]

I love this trade. O'neal is not going to help us this year, probably not next either. Getting his two year deal off the books is a good move. In getting Marion's expiring contract we save money not only this season, but we can be more flexible next year. Marion is a huge upgrade from Moon (who I would try to trade next along with Solomon) and if he fits in well here, the Raps can try to retain his services. I think we need to keep Kapono, his skill-set is extremely rare.

[JJ]

Assuming hoopshype (http://hoopshype.com/salaries/toronto.htm) is correct for NBA Salaries, I don't think the Raps would have 14 million in cap room this summer. Especially if Banks comes back in the deal.

At the moment the Raps have the following 09-10 Salary Commitments:
Chris Bosh $15,779,912
Jose Calderon $8,219,009
Jason Kapono $6,212,960
Andrea Bargnani $6,527,490
Kris Humphries $3,200,000
Roko Ukic $1,350,000
2009 1st Round Pick $2,000,000(??? depends on the pick)

For a total of around $43,289,371 (depending on when the 1st Round Pick is, the higher it is, the more they pay).

Add in a qualifying offer to Joey Graham ($3,441,104) and Nathan Jawai's option ($736,420) and the payroll is up to $47,466,895. If they take back Marcus Banks's salary too ($4,464,000, again according to hoopshype). The Raps are up near $52 million.

This year, the salary cap is $58,680,000. Considering the state of the world economy and declining NBA revenues, it may not grow that much (the cap is based on league revenues). But depending on how much it grows, by my math, it would leave the Raps with only $6 to $10 million in cap space, unless they renounced their rights/don't make a qualifying offer to Joey.

But as Doug said, all the numbers are tentative now. And Bryan did excellent work two years ago when he signed Garbo and Parker to smaller contracts rather than going after a star.

[Mikey G]

Some people are really funny. They think it's as easy as "Hey I don't want Marcus Banks, gimme those other two guys instead." And Pat Riley is just going to say "Sure BC, would you like the keys to my Bentley as well?"

Come on people. This isn't NBA2K9 or the ESPN trade machine. We would be lucky if Miami sends us Marion and a scrub like Banks so stop proposing Miami gives us three capable players (Jones, Magloire, Marion) while we send them one seriously injured 31 year old centre and Jamario Moon.

And to the poster Matt. GARBO'S CONTRACT ISN'T ON THE BOOKS! IT'S ONLY BEEN SAID ABOUT 20 MILLION TIMES!!!

[Jesse Neary]

Apparently Dallas has now offered Miami Josh Howard for Shawn Marion? I think they win, with a better player to offer but then again, you never know what happens. I think if we make this deal we need to ensure our back-up big position in case one of the bigs gets injured and Joel Anthony, being Canadian, would definitely be a good addition to the raps. What do you think?

Blogger's note: Anthony's all right, and I presume the Heat feel the same way too

[Jesse Neary]

if we have to take on banks' contract, we should have some kind of leverage in a deal like this..If Joel Anthony is too much to ask for, maybe we toss in a wing (Marion would be taking someone's minutes anyway). I'll be the first to throw Moon's name out there. He is frustrating to watch, contract expiring and he may be somewhat attractive to teams because of his play last year and his athleticism that's hidden by his jump-shot happy game.

Bargs/Anthony
Bosh/Hump/Jawai
Marion/Graham
AP/Kapono
Calderon/Solomon/Ukic

[Greg]

I wouldn't do this trade. Marion thrived off of Steve Nash. Clearly Chris Quinn is not Nash. Neither is Calderon. So, I predict the Raps will get the same thing out of Marion that Miami did: a defensive upgrade. Toronto still won't have the wing that can break down defenders and create his own shot and who is a passable defender. Marion doesn't address any of the shortfalls that are costing the Raps games: lack of motion on offence, willpower and strength to keep teams down to close out games.