Some numbers and some early reaction to the Raptor deal

So much for a day off, eh.

First, the details:

Toronto gets

Shawn Marion

30 years old, 6-7, 228

Season averages: 12.0 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 36.1 mpg, in 42 games, 41 stars

Salary: $17,810,000 this year, expires

Marcus Banks

27 years old, 6-2, 205

Season averages: 2.6 ppg, 1.4 apg,, 10.4 mpg in 16 games, zero starts

Salary: $4.26 million this season, $4.553 million in 2009-10, $4.87 million in 2010-11.

Cash considerations

Miami gets

Jermaine O’Neal

30 years old, 6-11, 260

Season averages: 13.5 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 29.7 mpg in 41 games, 34 starts

Salary: $21.372 million this season, $23.016 million in 2009-10.

Jamario Moon

28 years old, 6-8, 205

Season averages: 7.3 ppg, 4.6 rebounds per game in 54 games, 39 starts

Salary: $711,517 this season, expires

Conditional draft pick: tMy man Ira at the Sun-Sentinel reports it's a 2010 pick lottery protected through 2014. If Toronto doesn't make the 2010 playoffs and keeps the pick, they will give up a second rounder that year to the Heat. If the Raptors don't make the playoffs between 2010 and 2014, they wouldd give up their 2015 first-round choice to Miami.

Now, the reaction:

Why Miami made the deal

They get bigger and stronger inside, can move rookie Michael Beasley to small forward, still have cap room in the vaunted summer of 2010.

Why Toronto made the deal

Will have significant cap room for trades or signings this summer, can move Andrea Bargnani back to centre from small forward.

And, finally, my first reaction

Any time you get a quicker chance to add players, the better, in my opinion and now Toronto can be a player – in trades as much as anything – this summer.

Yes, they lose toughness but I think overall, a starting lineup of Calderon, Parker, Marion, Bosh and Bargnani is better than Calderon, Parker, Bargnani, Bosh and O’Neal. The Raptors bench of Kapono, Graham and Ukic is okay at the two-three and maybe the one spot but they will be thinner up front. Marion can play some four, though; there are those who thinks that’s his best position.

The money? Well, the Banks contract’s not great but Toronto may still have enough, depending on what it does in the coming summer, to get in on the tail end of the 2010 free agent sweepstakes. I’ll take a look at the financials more closely for the morning, though. The mind’s racing right at the moment.

The Heat? Pat Riley knew they were not nearly big enough to challenge the top three teams in the East, he loves big guys and Marion was not going to re-sign in the summer.

Overall, I’d say Toronto came out okay. Not great, certainly not slam dunk, but not a bad deal all in all.

Comments

[Mark L]

Doug,

Will Banks be of any help to the team at all?

Blogger's note: Doubt it

[Marc]

Any chance of another move, a smaller one, before the deadline or is this our roster for the remainder of the season?

I like getting the cap space but by the end of the season we should have a good idea of whether we'd want Marion to resign.

[Ryan]

Marion's been extremely healthy throughout his career though, a significant departure from JO's health. One more factor to consider. Plus Marion's still got game, he just was in the wrong system (he's getting 9 boards, he must be alright still)

[Rex Ross]

JO was a total pro during his stay with the Raptors. I take my hat off to him and wish him the best.

If this deal costs the Raps a first rounder, I will be really upset. Sure, we can have all kinds of cap flexibility this summer, but we have to stop giving those first rounders away (along with picking guys in the second round who have no hope of ever playing for the team). The lack of young home-grown has to hurt in the long run.

I just hope that this summer's cap flexibility will actually result in a quality player or two - and not just another Will Solomon Euro-retread.

[Pascal LeBlanc]

Do you think Marcus Banks could have an impact? He's petty much an improved version of Solomon, so I guess Will won't be back on the court this year. How does Banks' arrival affect Roko's playing time?

[gargalen]

Why do you think they had to include a conditional 1st round pick? I hate picks in this sort of deals - they can kill you in the long run. Unless Miami bought that pick for the $3 million?

Blogger's note: They had to include a conditional first-rounder to make the deal get done

[alucart999]

This year's salary cap is $58.68 million. Assuming it increases by $2 million (it rose 3 million last year and the year before) it will be at $60.68 million. Looks like Raps will have $46 million if they renounce marion, parker, graham, and jawai.

That's only $14.68 million for them to sign a free agent and I assume they'll have to try to resign at least 2 of their 4 free agents.

Colangelo will have his work cut out for him this summer in order to retool this team enough such that Bosh will stay.

If I were him, I would swing for the fences and try to sign everyone to 2 or 3 year deals when presumably everyone else (looking to 2010) would only be interested in 1-year deals. You have one year to make the team gel (2009-2010 season). If it doesn't work, Bosh walks, and you retool again after Banks and Kapono's deals are off the books (2010-2011 season). Hopefully Colangelo hasn't traded away the 2011 pick by then.

[rob]

Noooooooooooooooooo,,,, february 13th friday... thats my slap in the face today.... me = so depressed.

[Ryan]

Will the Raps waive Will now or just let him wait out the rest of the season? And can Banks play the 2 at all (either offensively or defensively)?

[HC]

Giving up the pick is terrible. We haven't had a pick for years now. The Raps are becoming the Leafs.

[LeeZ]

It's not just a 1st round pick, it's potentially a 2nd round pick if the Raps don't make the playoffs next year and then a 1st round pick as well, as soon as the Raps make the playoffs within the next four years. Ouch.

[Chris]

Doug, would you honestly pull the trigger having to take Banks and give the draft pick? In addition we give up the cheap Moon...

Seems that we got fleeced!

Blogger's note: Moon's Toronto career was over in April; and yes, I would have made the trade

[Jeff D]

Let's hope Marion actually shows up and doesn't act like a certain fellow named Alonzo. There can't be any chance of this happening, can there Doug?

Blogger's note: No

[JJ]

I know the major benefits of the Raptors are for 2009-10, with the cap space (Doug, I excitedly await your salary cap calculations!).

But I only wish that Miami would have accepted this deal a little earlier. I like what Marion does for this Raptors team. He will upgrade the front-court when he plays the 4. He's certainly a big upgrade over Jamario at the 3. He fits very well into the more uptempo style that Jay wants to play. On a lot of levels, this is a good move for TO and they're getting a free trial to see how Marion fits in with the team (and possibly getting a jump on next year if they re-sign Marion. Count me amongst those who think NBA owners will act like MLB owners this past winter and be stringent in signing free agents/giving out big contracts this summer. I think many players could be had on the cheap).

I can see the Raps making a second-half run with Marion. But I can't see them getting up to 8th in the East. Maybe 10th-11th. 5 games is a huge amount to make up over only 25-30 games. And at which point I ask, is finishing 10th or 11th really better than 14th? A little surge at the end of the season once a team is out of contention rarely has carry over to the next year. My answer is no.

So I like this move -- especially for 2009-10, I just wish it was earlier because then I think part of the 2008-09 season could have been salvaged. As it is, by the time these guys get used to playing with each other, there will probably only be 10-15 games or so left in the season. And at that point, it will be too late.

As far as Marcus Banks, his value will come in the season of 2010-11 when his contract is expiring and then he can be a useful trade chip.

[Alex]

I agree Rex, O'Neal was a class act here and a great competitor.

Moon, well, great story but the guy just lacks the drive to be really good. Good for him though, he's moving much closer to home.

Well, let's see if this shakes the team up at least... I hope Banks is good since we've got him for 3 years now.

[Greg]

@alucart999: $14.68 million plus they can use the mid-level exception (close to $6 million) to go over the cap.

[Alan Squires]

So if they make the playoffs this year they will not have a first round pick? I don't understand how this will help the team get better in the off season. They could have moved O'neal in the off season, giving the raptors a better chance of landing a player they can use in the future and still have the first round pick to either draft someone or use in a trade. Lets face it, the type of player the Raps are looking for will not sign here as a free agent. The only elite players we have ever landed have been through the draft and trades, not free agency since no one wants to play for a losing team, especially a Canadian one. The only chance we have of getting that player is through trade. Bad trade in my opinion.

[Jeff D]

Did anyone read the article by Ira. At the end he actually states that Moon may have a shot at starting in Marion's SF spot. I know its taken out of context a little, but even to mention this as a possibility seems absurd!!

[Amanda]

Hey Doug - do you know why Miami was so adamant (according to reports) about receiving Moon in the deal? It's not like he's going to give them much cap space for the summer or that he's playing up to his abilities this year. Did they just want a 3 because they're getting rid of a 3 or does Pat think he'll do well in their system?

Blogger's note: Not sure they were at all adamant about Moon, much more adamant about the future pick, I'm hearing

[Travis]

Doug - with this deal, and the Raptors at 13 players on the roster, 4 of those being PGs (who can't play the 2), do you see them waiving Soloman and signing another minimum contract vet? Or would this put us over the limit?

[Jim Rootham]

That's a lot of current production and a draft pick to get cap space.

Just looking at this year T. J. Ford's meltdown may have already cost the Raptors more than Vince going on strike did. This trade seems likely to make that worse.

[BB]

Come on! He's the Matrix baby!!!

If Marion can guard the top 2 and 3 guards on opposing teams that have been killing the Raptors, grab some important rebounds and throw down some dunks to excite teammates and fans I think it's a home run. The Raptors just got a lot more athletic.

[Raymond C]

Doug, do you think we have any chance of moving Marcus Banks before 2010?

Blogger's note: No

[Matt G]

Good Afternoon Doug. No peace for the wicked, didn't anyone ever tell you that? On that note, on to my question: what odds do you place Colangelo moving what few assets he has for draft picks? And, if he's re-tooling next summer, could he not flip Parker, or Kapono or Graham or all of the above for picks? As an example, I'm betting Boston having a Joey Graham to hound Lebron while utilizing his six-fouls would sure come in handy.

[Amr]

Doug, using rough numbers, this summer there will be $15MM in room under the $60MM cap to sign a F/A. Assuming a $70 million luxury tax-line, how can the raps use that extra $10MM in space to get more players?

Blogger's note: Sign their own free agents (like Marion, Parker, Graham, Delfino), veteran exceptions, biannual exception. There are ways