Of past drafts and coming playoffs. And Alonzo doesn't say thanks

No practice yesterday so precious little about the local Heroes Of The Hardcourt.

Hope this offering satisfies at least some of the hoops cravings:

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A whole bunch of people are up in arms because the Raptors may slide back from the No. 8 pick in the draft because (egads!) they are winning games at the moment.

Yeah, like that’s going to make a difference. Check out the past five drafts in the second half of the lottery:

2008

8: Joe Alexander, Milwaukee; 9: D.J. Augustin, Charlotte; 10: Brook Lopez, New Jersey; 11, Jerryd Bayless, Indiana; 12: Jason Thompson, Sacramento; 13: Brandon Rush, Portland; 14: Anthony Randolph, Golden State.

Best pick: Jury’s still out but I’d say Lopez, No. 10.

2007

8: Brandan Wright, Golden State; 9: Joakim Noah, Chicago; 10: Spencer Hawes, Sacramento; 11: Acie Law, Atlanta; 12: Thaddeus Young, Philadelphia; 13: Julian Wright, New Orleans; 14: Al Thornton, L.A. Clippers.

Best pick: Right now? Thornton, No. 14, maybe Young, No. 12.

2006

8: Rudy Gay, Memphis; 9: Patrick O’Bryant, Golden State; 10: Sare Sene, Seattle; 11: J.J. Redick, Orlando; 12: Hilton Armstrong, New Orleans; 13: Thabo Sefolosha, Philadelphia; 14: Ronnie Brewer, Utah.

Best pick: I could make the case it’s Brewer, No. 14, for what he does for the Jazz but I’ll give you Gay, No. 8.

2005

8: Channing Frye, New York; 9: Ike Diogu, Golden State; 10: Andrew Bynum, Lakers; 11: Fran Vazquez, Orlando; 12: Igor Korolev, Clippers; 13: Shawn May, Charlotte; 14: Rashard McCants, Minnesota

Best pick: I guess Bynum, No. 10, if he’s ever able to stay healthy.

RICK EGLINTON/TORONTO STAR

One of the more painful slaps in the face for Raptor fans has to be the results from the 2004 draft.

2004

8: Rafael Araujo, Toronto; 9: Andre Iguodala, Philadelphia; 10: Luke Jackson, Cleveland; 11: Andris Biedrins, Golden State; 12: Robert Swift, Seattle; 13: Sebastian Telfair, Portland; 14: Kris Humphries, Utah.

Best pick: Guess it has to be Iguodala, No. 9, but there’s lots of love for Biedrins, No. 11, around the league.

So, what’s this tell us?

There can be good players found at any spot in the second half of the lottery; a lot depends on what teams picking ahead of you do, and how good your scouting department is at unearthing good players with late lottery picks.

But we can all agree that it’s more a crapshoot than anything and just because you have No. 8 doesn’t mean you’re going to get a far better player than if you have No. 11 or 12.

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I didn’t hear the whole speech so maybe I missed it but I don’t think Alonzo Mourning thanked Rob Babcock and the Raptors for repatriating him to Miami, where they retired his number last night.

But how crazy is this?

Normal halftime breaks are 14 minutes; the Heat-Magic game was delayed 43 minutes at halftime for the Mourning ceremony.

Thank goodness we’re at least a decade away from ever having to worry about something like that happening at a Raptor game. Or until they decided to play some Little Urchin Basketball Tournament that includes five or six games.

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List time

Okay, so we’ve got two weeks and a day or so left in the regular season and there’s still lots of jockeying for playoff position – and even one playoff berth, perhaps – in the Eastern Conference.

Here’s a quite subjective list (like everything around here of) – ta-da!:

Three Teams With Something To Prove

Boston (56-19)

The reigning champs are, for them, stumbling along at 7-3 in their last 10 and they’re in third by percentage points. Kevin Garnett’s hurt, Stephon Marbury hasn’t really been the answer (who’d have have seen that coming?) and Doc Rivers has already given up hope of finishing first overall.

But as we saw last year, when they were horrid on the road in the playoffs in the first two rounds – and when they were running far, far more smoothly to end the season than they are now – the Celtics need homecourt more than almost anybody.

If they can’t reel in the Magic, I can see them not even making it to the conference finals this time around.

Detroit (36-37)

A playoff spot isn’t locked up by any means – although it’s a pretty safe assumption – but to think the Pistons are doing anything but stumbling into the post-season is dead wrong. Can they get Allen Iverson to truly buy into a backup role? How will Rodney Stuckey handle the increased pressure of running a team when every possession is like life and death? Which game, or games, will Rasheed Wallace blow with some Rasheed Wallace-esque temper tantrum?

I can see the Pistons finishing eighth, going out in four and making radical change.

Miami (39-35)

Yeah, I know. Every time you look at a boxscore, Dwyane Wade’s got 30 or 40 or 50 or something stupid like that and he’s increasing his odds of finishing a strong third in MVP balloting. And then you wonder? Surely to goodness someone else on that team is going to do something, right? Maybe not. And in the playoffs, when teams can lock down on one guy because they have days and days to prepare, someone else has to do something good for anyone to have any chance of winning. The Heat’s only got eight games to find out if that guy exists.

Tomorrow: The West.

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Oh yeah, the much anticipated e-mail from the league office arrived yesterday, carrying with it the ballots for the post-season awards.

And like a kid a Christmas, I opened it eagerly to see what I got.

A tough job is what I got.

How about MVP, Coach of the Year and Rookie of the Year.

Three difficult, difficult choices. Luckily, there’s a couple of weeks left before they have to be returned. It’ll give me some thinking to do.

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Seriously, the scoreboard when I shut the machine down last night said Milwaukee 79, New Jersey 48 in the third quarter. Now, that’s the way to tank. Go big or go home, I say.

Now, would you rather have players and coaches talking about how good they feel, or saying how sorry they are, as my man Dave reports here.

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Seriously, if the world doesn’t bounce Steve Wozniak this week, the world needs to re-examine itself. (It’s sort of code, regulars will get it).

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This wraps it all up and is gleaned from a very good e-mail basket I’m going to have to get to quickly this week. Lots of interesting questions that’ll get me through Wednesday-Thursday-Friday when I’m not in Florida (I’m picking ‘em up in New York):

Q: Doug, one thing that annoys me, is that when I tune in to watch the post game show of a Raps game, I have a hard time hearing the reporters questions. Is it too difficult or time consuming to have someone handle a microphone? I'm sure other viewers must feel the same way. Keep up the good work, and keep us entertained during the offseason!

Ken B, Matheson

A: Well, frankly, I’m not sure we want to be part of a studio audience. They could get boom mics, I suppose but I’m there to get my questions asked and answered and, honestly, sometimes I save my good stuff for private conversations because I’d rather not have the dozens of people watching on TV get my best stuff before the readers do.

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Comments

[Peter]

Thank you for the New Jersey article. I would rather have the 12 or so guys that we DO have, learn to be a winning team, then hope that the one mid round draft pick that we'll get next year will turn this franchise around. If we draft a guy who puts up numbers like Hump (a mid round draft choice) we'll all talk about how the rookie seems to have potential, but we'll also still be a losing team with no hope of making the playoffs. If we finish strong, there is a chance that a free agent might look at Toronto as a viable destination. We'll also have given whoever returns to this team, some sense of optimism. With the entire leagues record of drafting, I'd much rather take the Atlanta route, then last year's Miami team.

[Dallas]

Hi Doug,

not to Lobby, but: I'd like to see Wade get it, but feel Lebron is more deserving. I could see Mike Brown or SVG getting COY, but it is time Sloan gets it. Brook Lopez would be my choice of ROY.

I get what your saying, and I am not for tanking, especially seeing how many of our remaining games are at home. We have to give fans a show, but I can also see the point to give some of the end of young guys a look. That being said, the vibe around this team had been toxic, so wins and some positivity are what the doctor ordered.

But your point about order of pick not mattering, i think is too dismissive. If you had any faith at all in our scouting dept and our Gm, wouldn't getting to pick, when there are more options on the table, be of a clear benefit.

I recall CDR being plucked one pick before we got Jawai, and I don't know what our guys would have done, but imo CDR would have looked good here. The reasons agaisnt taking is that it's far better to have a winning mentality, and to reward our fans with effort, not that there's no guarantee you get the pick right anyway, imo.

If BC felt the way you did, we'd see him trade down our pick down 7 spots so he could pay mlse back some of Sam's wages.

Thanks

[Joe T.]

Interesting draft lists there, Doug. I found it particularly interesting that two guys on that list are Raptors at the moment. And even more amusing that two of the guys drafted after Aruajo are or have been Raptors since (including the guy he was traded for!). Fascinating stuff...

[Brad]

Well done with the draft lit Doug, that should shut up some dont-know-it-alls. Its interesting to see how a stud like Biedrins got sandwiched between uber-busts like Luuuuke Jackson and Robert Swift. It all comes down to scouting and having multiple options depending who is on the board when your team is up.

And if you look at Bryan's draft history in the last 10 years in been very good in the late-middle of the pack (Stoudamire, Lopez, Marion, Nash, Joe Johnson, Rudy Fernandez, Barbosa, etc...)

[anthony.mackay]

Dallas,
Yes Wade is on fire the last while but you just can't justify giving it to him with Kobe DID NOT get it the year he was dropping 50 ever other night..

[Abe]

Hey Doug, I know you're still mulling it over, but I gotta ask. Can you at least list off your top 3 for each of MVP, ROY and COY? Thanks.

My picks:
MVP: Lebron; ROY: D-Rose; COY: Phil Jackson

Blogger's note: When I narrow it down (there are three on each of the rookie and coach ballots; five on the MVP) I'm sure I'll let you know

[Lou]

Doug,

For your votes, do you simply pick one guy for the award or do you have to fill in 1st, 2nd, 3rd. I remember seeing the 1st/2nd/3rd for baseball voting but wasn't sure if it was the same for hoops.

Thanks.

Blogger's note: Three in order for each of coach and rookie; five in order for MVP

[dc]

the past few games have been like this stock market rally. "Maybe it's for real, the fundamentals are sound, let's get excited again- if only for a day"

the chicago game was thrilling in the sense that neither team played defense- except for chicago in the final 10 minutes of the 4th, when the offense for the raps was well contained.

the pg, pf, and c positions that you describe as our core, in my opinion, are average to poor defenders compared with every other team in this league at those positions that win more than half their games.

combine the fact they lack a true nba-quality starting sg, and their starting sf is on loan till the end of the season and the raptors are still facing major roster issues going forward.

I know this is the most annoying thing for a commentor to post, but... RICHARD JEFFERSON. exactly the kind of player with size, offense, intelligent player, known to be a "good character" in the nba, above average defender and rebounder. A player like Jefferson has routinely had monster games against the raptors for the simple reason that the team has always lacked a player capable of guarding a player like him.

are both Jefferson and Marion free agents this summer? a sign-and-trade involving those two and the signing of a legit sg (not ben gordon) are what can mask or make up for the defensive one-on-one weakness of bosh, bargnani, and calderon.

without at least two above-average defenders in the starting lineup, the raptors will continue to fail to reach the post-season or second round, should they turn things around next year and stay healthy.

like i've read in this blog- no doubt they can score. But they cannot stop teams at the other end. It's fun to watch a team score, but that's still only half of what the game is about.

[SY]

Hi Doug,

Yesterday, you mentioned that if the Raptors were to go for a player in Chicago they should go for Luol Deng. Personally, I think we should definitely go for him at the right price. My question is how high of value is he around the league? Who would you offer to Chicago for him? (Kapono + Banks + future 2nd round pick?)

-SY

[Andy]

God I love Biedrins so much. If we HAVE to deal Bosh, I would beg for a package involving Biedrins.

[Doug]

MVP: two-horse race in my opinion

1)Lebron: not only a superstar but a rare one in that he puts team first, involves them.

2)Wade: pretty simple when he was hurt last year team was what it was terrible, back and healthy and he and he alone has vaulted them from cellar to mid-pack playoff team, does it all..

Coach: another two horse race

1)Sloan, has kept this team on task, and focused with Boozer leaving after the season, Kirilenko being Kirilenko, and always gets players to meet or exceed their potential.

2)Adelman: lost two starters McGrady, Alston team had to re-tool and change their style mid-stream and they still excelled when all expected them to fade, excellent job utilizing his pieces.

Rookie of the Year: to me Rookie of the Year I vote for player I feel will most likely have the most successful long-term career...lot of candidates, Rose, Mayo, Lopez, Love but to me clear winner in

1) Rudy Fernanadez, not only a surprise but the player out of that above list that has the best over-all skill-set and has become a indispensable piece of his team and their success, no one would have thought that before the season started.

[Daniel K.]

Coach of the Year has to be Jerry Sloan. He's done good things with Utah in light of Boozer missing a chunk of the season...plus he's due.

[Uncle Zeke]

true Detroit has struggled- especially in the second half of the season but they've got Rip back this week and Rasheed back tonight. If AI buys into a 6th man role who knows what they do come playoff time.

Currently they'd meet the Magic in the first round. Who would you take in that series? The Pistons have beaten the Magic 27 of the last 34 times they've met including the last two years in the playoffs and a regular season sweep this year. Based on that superiority you'd almost have to throw the seeding out the window...

[Tabber]

Ah, Brad, I'll excuse you if you're new around here, but NOTHING will shut up some of the clowns that do, indeed, think they know it all. Sorry to be a downer, but I've come to realize that some people just cannot recognize their own inferiority in certain areas (unlike me, for instance - I know I don't know b'ball (or hockey, or stem-cell research, or ...) well enough to pass judgement on those who are paid to make the decisions). There are those who comment that seem to think they're qualified to be NBA GMs or coaches with even less knowledge than mine, but they'll never recognize themselves in my descriptions. I think it's a mental illness, but again, I'm not qualified in that field, so I just hope their friends and relatives don't get hurt by these delusional folks!

[joe]

not really a comment on today's blog, but a comment to all the people who are knocking the fans that are actually happy that the raps are pulling a string of wins together. No one here is saying that the raptors are suddenly contenders. if there was a single person here that thought so, please quote them for me. there's no point in complaining about the disappointing season, all we can do is concentrate on the present and the future. so why not celebrate a little for a few wins? yes most of them are against sub 500 teams, but hey, earlier in the season we weren't winning against those teams either, so why not build from that? it's amazing how negative certain people here are. has this season been a disappoinment? yes, but what the heck is wrong with enjoying some entertaining basketball while we have it?

[Matt]

Hey Doug

is there any way you can get a fan poll/vote thing up within the blog and set it up just like how your votes are scored? it would be cool to see how the Doug-blog readers votes compare to the all-knowledgeable voters for the NBA.

thanks

Blogger's note: I'm sure we can cook something up closer to the end of the season.

M

[John S]

Hi Doug,

I see what you are trying to say re: draft position but the fact of the matter is that the lower you go, the tougher it is to find an impact player. In the top 7 picks from 2004-2008 you have the following:
2008: Rose, Beasley, Mayo, Westbrook, Love, Gordon
2007: Oden, Durant, Horford, Green
2006: Bargnani, Aldridge, Roy, Foye
2005: Bogut, Marvin & Deron Williams, Chris Paul
2004: Howard, Okafor, Gordon, Harris, Deng
What I'm saying is that the players drafted in the top half of the lottery are much more likely to become impact players. There are busts but the chances of finding a franchise player are greater with a higher pick. Tanking it is not an option but having a mediocre pick does not solve anything. I realize that having more losses does not guarantee a top 3 pick but it does ensure that we are more likely to have a top 5 pick which helps with the rebuilding process.

[Eric]

Doug,

A question. I saw a possession on Sunday and I've always wondered how similar plays get scored. The Raptors took a shot that missed. In pursuit of the rebound Tyrus Thomas batted the ball out to halfcourt right to Shawn Marion. Does Marion get the rebound or is it a team rebound? Or worse, does Thomas get a rebound and a turnover (and Marion a steal)? I know it's not the latter but I find it hard to convince myself that Marion would be credited with an offensive board there. He was just soooo far out of the play. How do they score it?

Blogger's note: Tried to find the specific play in question in my play-by-play but can't. So, what I think would have happened (if Thomas did not actually gain control of the ball) would be a Chicago team rebound and a team turnover. But don't me to that, my friends on the scoring crew don't remember the specific play either. And because it's a subjective call on whether Thomas had the ball or not, it's impossible to say with any certainty.

[Mark]

I think you are missing the point, 7th place gives you a 4.3% chance of winning the lottery(6% of moving to top three), 12th place gives you a 0.7% chance of winning (1% of top three). In the last ten years Chicago 1.7%, Portland 5.3%, Toronto 8.8%, Milwaukee 6.3%, Houston 8.9%, and New Jersey 4.4% have all won the lottery with under 10% chance going in. Plenty of other teams have also moved up to second or third with less than ten percent chance.

The difference between picking 8th and 12th may not be huge, as you say, but the difference in moving up to a top 3 pick is pretty significant when it goes from 1 in 16 probability of moving up if they finish 7th to a 1 in 100 chance of moving into the top three if the finish 12th.

No matter how you cut it, it does not make any sense for the raptors to win games now. The season ticket argument is short term when you consider long term success and tickets sales with Ricky Rubio on the team compared to Willy Warren.

Blogger's note: Sorry, you're never going to change my mind. It never, ever, ever makes sense to throw games, for all the reasons I've mentioned numerous times.

[Jason]

Doug,
Great bit on the middle round draft picks being a crapshoot. I'd even go as far as to say every single pick is a crapshoot and not one single player is ever a guarantee.
Players like Chris Washburn, Kwame Brown, and Michael Olowokandi are all top 3 picks that didn't amount to more than a stiff in an NBA uniform.
Also another example, Len Bias was a #2 pick and never once pulled on a NBA jersey. Obviously he was a special case but I'm trying to say that you never ever know what will happen with any player. Fran Vasquez also comes to mind
I think its safe if you have more busts in a draft than players who have HOF careers.

[David Sidhu]

Is it random who gets which ballots? I always thought everyone gets to vote on every award?

Blogger's note: Three per category per team, distributed among writers and broadcasters

[Jeff Steele]

MVP - Lebron (unless the Cavs lose a 2nd game in Cleveland then give it to Kobe or DWade because lets face it 2 home losses is unacceptable ;)

ROY - Derrick Rose will win but I wish people would consider Eric Gordon or Brook Lopez (according to their 10-cat fantasy rankings Eric is 52nd and Brook is 26th overall in the league which is much better than Rose or Mayo and last time I checked stats are all that matter in ROY voting)

COY - Jerry Sloan (this should be by default lets just give it to him already it's getting ridiculous how many times he's been snubbed)

[Sasha "Fierce"]

Hi Doug,

Thanks for all the great blog work. Three questions:

1.) What are your thoughts regarding Houston and seeing how well they have been playing without Tracy McGrady?

2.) I was impressed with Blake Griffin's play against North Carolina and how strong he was. Do you think he will make an immediate impact to the team drafting him.

3.) What is your impression on Shawn Marion and what he brings to this team? Any indications that he would be interested in remaining in TO for a salary reduction?

Blogger's note: That's too much for here.
Houston: I'm not surprised
Griffin: No shooting range, strong as a bull, consensus No. 1 pick.
Marion: Brings some defence and athleticism, can't create a shot to save his soul

[aditya]

about the best pick right now being thornton instead of young....you couldn't be more wrong in your life...check stats, watch games, do anything......ask your friends from inside the raptors organization (ask the kelly guy)....ask anyone...ask obama.....thornton? as swirsky would say: are you kidding me???

[chili]

The draft is a crapshoot and you pick the player your team needs. That's why Sam Bowie was picked ahead of Michael Jordan. And Kerry Kittles ahead of Kobe Bryant. OK.. I'm just exaggerating on that one.