Big game, big shot, big finish. Oh, and AI is ticked

What a terrible, stinky, horrible game.

Now they’re percentage points better than New York.

OH

MY

GOD

They might have the – gasp! – ninth pick in the draft instead of the eighth?

AP PHOTO

A little win streak to end a crappy season is sure better than an elbow to the chest.

And all because they gutted out a big win on the road against a very good team late in the season. Damn them!

-

Seriously, that might as good as they’ve played since the San Antonio game just before the all-star break; the Magic is very good.

They decided early not to aggressively double-team Howard, to let him get his if he had to and take extra care guarding the three-point line. Worked out pretty well, I’d say and runs counter to the usual philosophy of packing the paint and taking your chances with the shooters. Not a bad piece of adaptation, I’d say.

-

Action: Bosh’s game-winner

Reaction: Remember when?

Tell me what the difference is between the shot Bosh missed at the end of Game 2 last April and the one he made last night? He’s being lauded for being “clutch” after the make and was killed for being a soft bum when he missed it in April.

Both were the right play at the right time, one he made and one he missed.

And no one who crucified him for not driving last year (a play after he’d been mugged and didn’t the call) really should be allowed to heap praise on him for making the 20-footer at the end of the game last night.

His game last night – 24 and 12, 50 per cent shooting from the field, enough good defence on Howard and Lewis when he had to chase him to the three-point line – was pretty much the kind of thing we’ve come to expect from him.

-

Hey, remember when Bargnani fouled with Jake-like frequency? When the gambling pool courtside was how long it would take him to get two quick personals and a seat on the bench? Well, those days are gone and that might be one of the most significant things he’s learned this year – how to defend without fouling.

Last night’s disqualification, and there were a couple of cheapies among the six for sure, was only his second of the season. That’s a huge improvement and shows more about his growth this year.

-

This prank sucks and they should give the guy a job or something for jerking him around.

And, besides, isn’t noon the moratorium on April Fool’s Day jokes?

-

Okay before anyone gets too excited, consider this when thinking about the ultimate season-ending miracle.

Not only do the Raptors have to run the table (and a 13-game winning streak to end the season is a bit much to ask), Detroit has to lose every game it plays and/or Chicago has to win no more than one and only a magical abacus can tell me what the means for Charlotte, Indy, Milwaukee, the Nets and Knicks.

So let’s take this for what it is, a very nice finish to a very bad season.

-

A quick one from the rapidly-filling mail bag:

Q: I know stats miss a lot, but which stat do you think is the most valid indicator of a team's defensive proficiency? Is there any sort of formula for calculating an individual's defensive prowess?

David S, Toronto

A: In my opinion, field goal percentage surrendered is the best stat to determine a team’s efficiency. And I have yet to see any single formula for determining an individual’s defensive ability.

-

How much did you want Charlotte to knock off the Celtics last night? Not just because it’s Boston and there’s a lot to loath about the C’s but because it would have (a) given the Bobcats back-to-back wins over the Lakers and Celtics and that would have been very cool and (b) tightened the bottom of the East standings immeasurably.

As it is, it’s going to be a wild finish over the next fortnight. I still think the schedule heavily favours Chicago to get one of those last spots but, I’m serious about this, do not sleep on the Bobcats to catch the Pistons.

That would be very cool, in my opinion; more new teams in the playoffs the better and I’ve always been a big Larry Brown fan.

-

Speaking of Detroit, how’s this for a much-needed distraction with the season on the line and two weeks to go?

Somewhere, I presume Chauncey Billups is smiling.

-

Action: Bargnani fouls out.

Reaction: It’s gotta be on Jay

I know they weren’t scoring a lot in the first few minutes of the fourth quarter and they probably needed his offence but to bring back Bargnani and his five fouls with just over seven minutes left was an ill-advised gamble.

One, of course, that backfired since he fouled out on his first defensive possession.

-

I’m rubbing my eyes in disbelief here – and not because Super Son seems all ready to head to school and it’s 45 minutes until departure time – but because in the last five games, the Raptors are plus-69 in rebounding.

Read that again.

PLUS-69 IN REBOUNDING.

The Raptors are.

The Toronto Raptors.

-

In Orlando, where they might be thinking that game will be the one that keeps them from getting second overall in the East, they awoke this morning, raced to the newsstand (or the porch, or the computer) and saw this from Good Old B. Schmitz.

-

You know I was gonna run this as soon as I saw it:

Q: I dare you to write an article tomorrow about how great Howard is like you did with Shaq ...you know the other game where we got completely screwed by the refs and you BLEW the story. I also dare you to print this.

Stephen P, Burlington

A: Dwight Howard’s great. The Raptors still won. What do I get? (If it’s money, send it to my office today, thanks).

-

Seriously, that was a poorly officiated game, Howard got the benefit of a handful of calls. Games are going to pop up like that every now and then, all refs are not created equally.

-

Comments

[Kelsie]

Great team effort from players to coaches last night. They took the challenge to defend and when you play hard and with purpose for 48 minutes sometimes you don't have to be perfect to win.

Can't blame Jay for Barg's fouling out. There were a handful of questionable calls and because the Raps took to defending and fouling instead of trying to outscore Orlando, refs were blowing the whistle more but I loved the strategy. The Magic realized that they were in a game from early and we put up some defensive resistance for the majority of the game.

Bosh was Bosh (no calls for him but played hard and well), but the bench was fantastic as well. Not from a offensive stand-point but there were few easy buckets to be had for the Magic and they were sent to the line when those opportunities did exist. Voshkul was great laying his body on someone and Graham was a top performer last night.....why? On offence to have to go from having the opposing 3 guard you then in transition sprint back and find Howard on every possesion is difficult and his effort was important to the win last night. Not to mention he wasn't shy about trying to play physical and putting Dwight on the line.

Forget about injuries and trades. I wonder what would have been had they played this hard every night....

Good work and hopefully they continue to ball like this.

[Mike S]

Doug, i would have to totally agree with how horrible that prank was. Not only wasn't it funny to begin with, considering how hard people have it these days, surely someone with a bit of common sense would've though it through beforehand? They should give him a job, or at least something to compensate. And from my memory, if you April Fool after 12pm, you're supposed to get 7 years bad luck. So look out Magic!

[brennan]

hey doug,
big shot from bosh last night...
too bad he and jose are the only raptors you can trust with free throws at the end of games...

that orlando prank was stolen from collegehumor.com

i have a question: how often do media grunts from other cities hang out with each other? watching the orlando broadcast team last night, they mentioned a few things that could only have come from a toronto source....

Blogger's note: We say hello to friends every time we see them and talk about the teams we cover; and lots of good broadcasters seek out team officials, or beat guys, to learn about the teams they'll be talking about.

[anthony.mackay]

Morning Doug,
I've never been a big Marion fan, always thought his game was over rated, doesn't give the impression of a "team" guy... and he ends up in Toronto and seems to be fitting in with their system which is actually resulting in some of those things... you know, wins!
I don't know what to think anymore after this season, what kind of offer do you think BC will make now that he has finally been able to see what a HEALTHY Jose, Bosh, Andrea and Marion can do? Give this core an actual training camp together and their right around the 4-5 seed in the east.

[Sean]

That prank was a joke by the Magic game-ops people, the "laid-off" guy was an actor. It was a prank on the Magic crowd (and Star reporters it seems).

See the ESPN gamelog.

[jamie m]

The Magic April fool's joke was just that, a joke. The contestant was an actor.

[Kerry]

Agreed, the prank was brutal.

What is it about Toronto teams giving faint hope after they've been eliminated from playoff contention?

Stephen P. sure showed you, Doug. I guess that's how they do it on the mean streets of Burlington.

[Ed Lee]

please correct me if i'm wrong but based on the comments from mr feschuk's story, the "pranked" was actually the "prankee" and the prank was on the crowd.

nevertheless, it was a horribly derivative idea completely ripped off from another Web site which used it in a prank war about a month ago at a college game.

[Ravi]

The hyperlink is broken now, so if anyone wants to know the prank...

http://www.nba.com/raptors/news/recap_040109.html

"Notes: In an April Fool's joke, the Magic made the crowd think a real fan was shooting a half-court shot for $100,000 at halftime. The fan was blindfolded, and the crowd was told beforehand to cheer as if he made the shot. The young contestant missed badly but acted as though he believed he won and danced around the court in a frenzy. Before being told it was a joke and showed the replay he said, ``I just got laid off at work.'' He was given a 100 Grand Bar of candy..."

That's very irresponsible of the organization. That is a cruel and embarassing practical joke. I would not feel well after being victimized like that.

In contrast our Italian BMO 500,000 dollar shot man is given 6000 dollars for easy-peasy shooting even before his 500k attempt... Speaks highly of the those involved in setting up that 500,000 dollar competition to give such a consolation prize. I wish he made the halfcourt shot though. It was oh so close! :)

[Mike]

Um, the April fool joke was on the audience

The 'victim' was an actor...

[Nick]

With AI showing displeasure of current situation he's in, do you see anyway Raps can clear the room and sign him this summer? He seems like the exact type of player this team is missing; a slashing 2-guard who can create his own shot. We would probably have to forget about re-signing Marion though.
What do you think Doug?

Blogger's note: There is no way in the world do I think they should consider for one minute Allen Iverson. He doesn't as much create his shot as take them away from everyone else on the team; his defence is no better than what they're getting; his age is concern; the salary he would command is a larger concern and we're not exactly seeing a really big "team-first" guy, now are we?

[Tyler]

Apparently(I hope so!) the prank was on the fans Doug, and the guy shooting was an actor... (end of AP story: http://espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=290401019)

[Blake Kennedy]

Doug, there is indeed a metric for team defensive performance that is the standard metric: points against per 100 possessions. Opponents FG% doesn't communicate anything, effective FG% communicates a little more, but there are still other aspects to defense than FG% against: defensive rebounding percentages, turnover percentages, and free throw rate (FT/FGA - a measure of how many free throws relative to FGA a team gets). These numbers are published in the power rankings at NBA.com commonly, now, and all the "Four Factors" (as described above) as well as the offensive and defensive ratings are readily available at basketball-reference.com.

As far as individual defensive metrics go, there is one of those too, called "defensive rating": a measure of how many points against per 100 possessions faced a defender gives up. There are two methods of calculating that: a method called "Project Defensive Score Sheet" (which the NBA might be running but will not make public, we know that the WNBA has done this) and an estimated defensive rating based on the metrics we do have. It's a complex series of formulas involving both team and individual performance, the Project Defensive Score Sheet is far more accurate but the estimated one more or less works, too. These are readily available at basketball-reference.com, too. They were developed by Dean Oliver and the methodology was published in his book "Basketball on Paper". Dr. Oliver currently is the analytics guru for the Denver Nuggets.

[LL]

The AP story I read yesterday said the joke was actually on the crowd:

"In an April Fool’s joke, the Magic made the crowd think a real fan was shooting a half-court shot for $100,000 at halftime. The fan was blindfolded, and the crowd was told beforehand to cheer as if he made the shot. The young contestant missed badly but acted as though he believed he won and danced around the court in a frenzy. Before being told it was a joke and showed the replay he said, “I just got laid off at work.” He was given a 100 Grand Bar of candy, but the joke was on the crowd"

[KD]

Doug, heads up: apparently that April Fool's joke wasn't on the guy shooting; it was on the crowd.

From yahoo's game notes:

In an April Fool’s joke, the Magic made the crowd think a real fan was shooting a half-court shot for $100,000 at halftime. The fan was blindfolded, and the crowd was told beforehand to cheer as if he made the shot. The young contestant missed badly but acted as though he believed he won and danced around the court in a frenzy. Before being told it was a joke and showed the replay he said, “I just got laid off at work.” He was given a 100 Grand Bar of candy, but the joke was on the crowd

Nevertheless, April Fool's IS over at noon. So the Magic still blew it there.

[Chris]

Hey Doug, the guy was an actor. It was a joke on the crowd. Maybe correct that so the millions of people reading this don't start hating the Magic?

[LM]

The April Fool's joke was not on the guy shooting the basket (as he was an actor) but rather on the fans at the arena. Please read the full story on ESPN for the details. Feschuk did not even tell the whole story.

[Wilber]

Wow. Great game and I didn't have that sinking "oh, we're going to let this slip away" feeling in my stomach like I've had watching so many games this season. Playoffs or not, this team believes they can win, which they didn't earlier.

"the Magic is very good." Is? Are?
I'm not doing this to snark, but curious about which is the right usage. The Magic ARE very good? The Magic "team" IS very good? What's your interpretation, oh, wise veteran scribe?

And, yes, we could avoid all this if teams (I'm looking at you, Heat, Magic, and Jazz) picked proper names instead of vague concepts. Although exceptions can be made for stellar examples like the Whoopee, former minor hockey team in Macon, Georgia.

[Matt]

Tough game to watch. Don't get me wrong, I'm glad the Raps won, but watching the Magic throw (and miss) free throws constantly throughout the game kinda killed the excitement for me. There are only a few teams out there that I can't watch because I get frustrated or lose interest after it's clear the refs are calling certain players differently than other (Heat, Lakers, Cavs) and I guess add the Magic to that list.

The most frustrating part of that game is that I can't see a difference to how Bargnani was defending Howard and how Garnett defends Bosh every time the Raps play the Celtics. He was playing physical (mostly initiated by DH), he wasn't jumping into Howard... and thus I was left with the feeling if you replaced AB with KG we would be lauding how Garnett played tough defense for 40 minutes instead of how Bargnani fouled out in seven. And the league wonders why fans feel like certain teams are favored over others. Let them play straight up. Howard is a superstar player, and the toughest player on the planet. He doesn't need help from the refs. Hell it would probably motivate him to develop that 10-foot jumper and become unstoppable.

[WSG]

Don’t the Raptors have Bird Rights on Shawn Marion, allowing them spend over the cap up to maximum salary, to keep him here? If so, and I’m pretty sure it is, the only ones who need to care about the money aspect of it is MLSE … and I say, to heck with worrying about them. Especially (for me) because I’m becoming a BIG Shawn Marion fan. Even though he shoots the ball like he has little dinosaur arms, he really knows what he's doing out there. Because of the Bird Rights on Marion*, I fully expect him to be a Raptor next year. *Not a topic here today, but I see whether Marion should be re-signed or not, is discussed a fair bit and that aspect isn't usually mentioned.

[Ted S]

More Raptor balls out of the lottery bin for the Griffin sweepstakes. Remember, we weren't the worst team in the lottery in the Bargnani sweepstakes, but every ball helped.

Why is it constantly represented that if you finish 9th, you pick 9th?

[Serge P]

The prank was on the crowd, not the guy who thought he made the shot. The shooter was an actor hired by the magic, the joke was on the fans.

[Dallas]

Doug and Mike, from what I read the prank was on the fans and viewers as the guy who took the shot was an actor in on the prank.

From Raptors.com

"Notes: In an April Fool's joke, the Magic made the crowd think a real fan was shooting a half-court shot for $100,000 at halftime. The fan was blindfolded, and the crowd was told beforehand to cheer as if he made the shot. The young contestant missed badly but acted as though he believed he won and danced around the court in a frenzy. Before being told it was a joke and showed the replay he said, ``I just got laid off at work.'' He was given a 100 Grand Bar of candy, but the joke was on the crowd"

While I couldn't believe the calls Howard got, there were a few times we got a couple too, though not as many. For example Kapono simply fell down one time, Jose got a couple calls too.

This was just a gut it out win against a good team and it was great to watch....Unless of course you were Quincy Douby.

[CARLoS M.]

I thought the joke was on the crowd and that the guy was playing along. If not, that sucks the big one.

[Jojo]

Definitely a nice win - seeing Jose play consistently well is comforting, and the rebounding has been amazing. Beating teams on the glass like this makes me proud to be a Raps fan. Maybe the "soft" label finally got to them, though Marion (and Pops, sometimes) is obviously helping.

Regarding the Bosh shot though...Yes, he hit a clutch shot, but is that a good shot to take? How often has that worked out? I don't know, maybe this team has no other options at the end of close games, but the "give Bosh the ball on the perimeter and hope for the best" has been a pretty low-percentage play all season long. It's great that it went in last night but it doesn't strike me as a good play.