Go ahead and watch, but here's what's going to happen

Man, this is almost as long as a mail bag. But it’s chock full of wisdom and wild predictions and some stuff you might not have thought of. Or maybe not.

Anyway, it’s here and maybe it gives you something to think about while doing the Saturday chores.

We’ll be back tomorrow with a relatively abbreviated mailbag (there aren’t a lot of queries in there) and I’m still looking for input (reach me here, there or wherever you can) about an in-game blog on Sunday night.

Good reading, folks:

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EASTERN CONFERENCE

No. 1 Cleveland vs. No. 8 Detroit

Game 1: Saturday, 3 p.m., ABC

Game 2: Tuesday, 8 p.m., The Score

Game 3: Friday, 7 p.m., RaptorsTV

Game 4: Sunday, April 26, 3 p.m., ABC

Burning question:

What can the Pistons do with LeBron?

Short answer:

Nothing except sit back and marvel.

MATT YORK/AP

They call him King James and there's every reason to think he'll be wearing a crown when these playoffs are over.

Stuff about the series

Everyone wants to make this out to be some big renewal of the rivalry that began in the conference finals a couple of seasons ago. Everyone chill. These are not your father’s Detroit Pistons and these are not your mother’s Cleveland Cavaliers.

What the Cavs are seems to be a team on a mission; they defend as well as they always have and Mo Williams gives them a huge offensive edge. He can take some of the heat off that James fellow.

The Pistons? Well, they’re talking tough, having been through the playoffs wars so often but talk, as we all know, is cheap. They’re older in the front court, younger in the backcourt and there just seems to be some disconnect between them and their coach.

Oh, and they don’t have a single, solitary soul who can guard James.

What won’t happen:

Allen Iverson won’t come off the bench to return the Pistons to glorious victory.

What will happen

The Cavs begin an inexorable march to their second East title in three years by winning their opening series in four games.

No. 2 Boston vs. No. 7 Chicago

Game 1: Saturday, 12:30 p.m., The Score

Game 2: Monday, 7 p.m., RaptorsTV

Game 3: Thursday, 8 p.m., The Score

Game 4: Sunday, April 26, 1 p.m. ABC

Burning question:

How much will the Celtics miss KG?

Short answer:

A whole lot, when they go up against a good team.

Stuff about the series:

Can you imagine the horror in Boston when it they found out Garnett’s done, most likely for the entire playoffs? Who’s going to smack the floor and yelp? Who’s going to scream and yell and, well, and act like a teenager? Who’s going to defend?

That last query is the most important because whatever Garnett did, he also played centre back on the defensive end and while Paul Pierce and Ray Allen are good player, none are known as stoppers at the other end. Sure, there’s the whole “let’s win one of the Gipper” kind of thing and that might be enough to carry the C’s through a round but when they come to play good teams? Not so much.

The Bulls? Well, the Bulls should be having a chance in a series against Orlando rather than ready to be routed by Boston. They are offensively challenged – not sure they called a single play against the Raptors and if they did, it didn’t work – and they don’t defend particularly well. They look entirely like a happy-to-be-there group that will go quietly into that night. Over and under on Joakim Noah foul-outs against Kendrick Perkins? Two and half in a six-game series.

What won’t happen:

Ex-Raptor Linton Johnson III will not make a big difference.

What will happen:

Boston’s experience will eventually shine through but it’ll take a lot more effort than they had hoped. Celtics win in six.

No. 3 Orlando vs. No. 6 Philadelphia

Game 1: Sunday, 5:30 p.m., RaptorsTV

Game 2: Wednesday, 7 p.m., TSN2

Game 3: Friday, 8 p.m., TSN2

Game 4: Sunday, April 26, TBD

Burning question:

Can Howard get 20-20 a night?

Short answer:

No reason to think he can’t.

Stuff about the series:

You’d think the most important person heading into the playoffs for the Magic would be Dwight Howard? Wrong, Superman-breath. (Kids, ask your grandparents about Johnny Carson). If the trainers are working, I’m sure, diligently trying to get Rashard Lewis (knee) and Hedo Turkoglu (ankle) back to something close to 100 per cent health. If they don’t, this series may end up being competitive after all. Oh, and Howard should dominate whatever skinny big man the Sixers send at him.

Philadelphia’s got some woes, too. Thaddeus Young isn’t 100 per cent. Oh, and they can’t shoot the ball to save their souls. Oh, and Andre Iguodala, while a great finisher in the open court, turns the ball over like it’s radioactive. Once upon a time, the Sixers were one of the up and coming young teams in the East. Now? First-round fodder.

What won’t happen

Stan Van Gundy will not show up in formal attire.

What will happen:

This could be a delightful series, I just wish that Turkoglu, Lewis and Thaddeus Young were 100 per cent healthy. Howard’s just too tough, Magic in seven.

No. 4 Atlanta vs. No. 5 Miami

Game 1: Sunday, 8 p.m., The Score

Game 2: Wednesday, 8 p.m., The Score

Game 3: Saturday, April 25, 6:30, TBD

Game 4: Monday, April 27, TBD

Burning question:

Can Joe Johnson negate Dwyane Wade?

Short answer:

No, but he might not have to.

LYNNE SLADKY/AP

Can one man, even one very good man, carry his team to a series win?

series win?

Stuff about the series:

Okay, let’s get this straight. Miami did the Jermaine O’Neal in large part so they could use him in the low post – offensively and defensively – against the likes of Dwight Howard, Kendrick Perkins and Zydrunas Ilguaskas. Guess they never figured on Zaza Pachulia, did they? Anyway, the Heat really is only as good as Dwyane Wade makes them and while he’s brilliant, his supporting cast isn’t. And watch the way the Hawks defend. They switch an awful lot, which will present different looks to Wade and force other Miami players to beat them. Yeah, right.

Now, it’s not like Miami’s playing Cleveland or Boston or even Orlando. The Hawks, while athletic and young, were a surprise at 47 wins (which says more about the East than it does about them) and this could end up being an entertaining series. I wonder how much Atlanta learned in its seven-game series with Boston last year. I think it’s enough. You know who’s gonna be the big guy, I think? Mike Bibby. Playoff-hardened, he’s the difference-maker.

What won’t happen:

Jamario Moon will not turn into playoff-like Reggie Miller from beyond the arc.

What will happen:

At some crucial point of some significant game, Dwyane Wade’s going to look at his teammates and say: Who are these guys? And the Hawks will win in six.

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WESTERN CONFERENCE

No. 1 Lakers vs. No. 8 Utah

Game 1: Sunday, 1 p.m., ABC

Game 2: Tuesday, 10:30 p.m., TSN

Game 3: Thursday, 10:30 p.m., TSN

Game 4: Saturday, 9 p.m., TBD

Burning question:

Is this the biggest mismatch in the West?

Short answer:

Oh yeah, without a doubt. <

BILL KOSTROUN/AP

Just what the Jazz need, Kobe Bryant on a mission to win a title after losing last year.

Stuff about the series:

Let’s get this straight. Lakers dominated the regular season, they’ve got a hungry and motivated Kobe Bryant. They’ve got a relatively healthy Andrew Bynum. They’ve got Lamar Odom, who needs to prove he can get megabucks on the open market this summer. They’ve got Pau Gasol, who is the best No. 2 option perhaps in the league and they’ve got the calm leadership of Derek Fisher.

Let’s get this straight, too: The Jazz are one of the worst road teams left in the post-season and they have no one big enough and strong enough to have a chance guarding Bryant. They’ve got Carlos Boozer still coming back from injury and their bench is suspect once you get past Paul Millsap. They’ve won three of their last seven and went from division contention to eighth overall.

Let’s get this straight: This one has rout written all over it.

What won’t happen:

John Stockton and Karl Malone won’t arrive to bail out the Jazz.

What will happen:

The Lakers, knowing how long and grueling the playoffs are, won’t take their foot off the pedal and will win in five. And that’s being charitable because I love Jerry Sloan.

No. 2 Denver vs. No. 7 New Orleans

Game 1: Sunday, 10:30 p.m. RaptorsTV

Game 2: Wednesday, 10:30 p.m., The Score

Game 3: Saturday, 1 p.m., TBD

Game 4: Monday, April 27, TBD

Burning question:

Will Allen Iverson be paying attention to his old team?

Short answer

Probably, it’s not like he’s got other stuff to do.

Stuff about the series:

You don’t think Chauncey Billups is a valuable player? Please, take a look at where the Nuggets and where the Pistons are and you’ve got to admit the veteran point guard has everything to do with it. He’s taken a rather, um, excitable Nuggets roster (Carmelo Anthony refusing to come out of a game? Come on!) and somehow turned them into what some think is a legitimate challenger for the Lakers? Trust me, it wasn’t because of Chris Andersen’s veteran leadership.

So, the word floating around the league is that there’s sense of dissatisfaction with Byron Scott and that he maybe needs to win a series to be assured of coming back. Not sure how true that is – they are whispers more than yelps – but that does add something to the Hornets. It’d make it far easier if Tyson Chandler and Peja Stojakovic were 100 per cent healthy but they’re not. Chris Paul, however, is. And that should be enough.

What won’t happen

Mo Pete won’t make some dramatic return from purgatory to rescue the Hornets.

What will happen

Well, this is little more than a hunch but I think the Hornets can steal Game 7 on the road from the tight-collared Noogies.

No. 3 San Antonio vs. No. 6 Dallas

Game 1: Saturday, 8 p.m., The Score

Game 2: Monday, 9:30 p.m., RaptorsTV

Game 3: Thursday, 8:30 p.m., RaptorsTV

Game 4: Saturday, 4 p.m., TBD

Burning question:

How can Manu Ginobili flop when he’s not even in uniform?

Short answer:

Maybe he taught The Red Rocket to fill that role.

Stuff on the series

So, here’s San Antonio all season: “Just wait until we’re healthy in April and May, that’s all we’re waiting for.” So, here’s San Antonio today: “How’s Timmy’s knee? Manu’s out for the year, right?” And with those injuries perhaps goes their chances at that every-other-year-title string they’ve got going? Pshaw. Not entirely sure how they’ll fare in the next season but Tony Parker’s going to run circles around Jason Kidd – like he always does – and Duncan at 70 per cent is too good for anyone Dallas has.

Speaking of the Mavericks, how in the world did they get to sixth? Wasn’t it two weeks ago people were wondering if they could hold off Phoenix for eighth? Well, as a matter of fact yes, and they got some strong play from Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry down the stretch, and something of an easy schedule, and then they got the one matchup they really didn’t want. Yes, Nowitzki can go off against San Antonio but he doesn’t defend well enough and the Mavs don’t defend the perimeter particularly well, which makes old friends Roger Mason and Matt Bonner difference-makers.

What won’t happen

Mark Cuban will hold his tongue and not say or do something, um, stupid.

What will happen

Lots of people see this as a close one. I seem to be not lots of people because I can see the Spurs winning in five.

No. 4 Portland vs. No. 5 Houston

Game 1: Saturday, 10:30 p.m., The Score

Game 2: Tuesday, 10 p.m., RaptorsTV

Game 3: Friday, 9:30 p.m., RaptorsTV

Game 4: Sunday, 9 p.m., TBD

Burning question

If the Blazers win, are they all old enough to have champagne to celebrate?

Short answer 

I bet the cops turn a blind eye for an hour or two.

Stuff on the series:

 Really, what’s not to like about the Blazers? Resurrected franchise, Brandon Roy’s a stone-cold killer, Rudy and Sergio just have that Spanish flair and LaMarcus Alridge is not Andrea Bargnani and a whole lot of people in these parts think that’s a good thing. Toss in the fact the Rose Garden crowd might be the best in the league and, like I say, what’s not to like about the Blazers?

But the Rockets are kind of likable, too. And they’re awfully good thanks to the perimeter defence of Shane Battier and Ron Artest, who might be the best one-two wing defenders anywhere in basketball. Of course, it’s not hard to press your guy outside when you’ve got 10-foot tall Yao Ming standing back there but they still do it very well. And how cool would it be if the Rockets won a first-round series that Tracy McGrady watched from some rehab centre?

But, alas, you play 82 games to get home court and the Rockets could use it.

What won’t happen

Nary a Blazer will be arrested during the entirety of the series.

What will happen

Home court rules and the Blazers, who seem oblivious to post-season pressure, will use it to win Game 7.

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There you have it. No need to watch, right? Well, there probably is because I’ve been wrong once or twice in my life.

Comments

[KX]

Miami will win, NBA wants to see Lebron vs Wade; Denver wins due to explosion of J.R. Smith; Houston wins in 6; Orlando beats Philly 4-1 like Toronto last year. Otherwise I agree with you.

[Carmine]

Hey Doug,

Great post tonight, it must of taken you some time. I think that the most intriguing match up in the east is the 4-5 Atlanta/Miami series, since it could go either way. I agree that Bibby can be that guy to make the difference, other than Joe Johnson, and because of that, I think that Atlanta will take it. But, do you think that Wade will turn on that "okay boys, I am gonna take it from here..." charm in the 3rd or 4th quarter often enough to make it close?

[aditya]

i believe ray allen is underrated as a defender

d12 and reggie evans - physical play and technical fouls barrage coming up(not really) but cant wait for the itnense play between dalembert/evans vs d12

magic in seven - what? huh!!!... if you are calling magic in 7, i am calling magic in 4

[dave]

Thanks for the good read. I have to question 09 Dirk not being worth 70% of 09 Duncan though. Obviously not to be the most exciting match up but no Manu no second round IMO.

[Peter]

Ok so that's your predictions... I wanna see Super Son's predictions... a beat grunt once told me that he's pretty good at this whole prediction thing!

[Jason]

Doug just wondering if you have any theories as to why Toronto is such a city of losers when it comes to professional sports?

Blogger's note: I blame Rogers and TSN2

[CB]

Doug, I don't believe we should trade chris bosh, but regarding your comment about removing the best player on the team never helps it out...what about t-mac and the rockets. The rockets have gone something like 22-8 without t-mac...clearly they are better.

Blogger's note: That's supposing McGrady, and not Yao, was Houston's best player :)

[Chris]

Doug,

Everyone and their mother is predicting a quick exit for the Jazz. For some reason I think this series might actually turn some heads and be competitive and be 6 maybe 7 games. As bad as the Jazz are on the road, they are great at home and already own a victory over the Lakers.

Keep up the great work

[Lavi]

Will Tracey McGradey even be able to watch? I thought he had eye surgery.

Blogger's note: Ah, no; he had knee surgery

[mary]

hey doug,
the toronto sun yesterday made it seem like shawn marion was a definite goner (headline: See Ya, Shawn). do you agree?

Blogger's note: Their guess is as good as yours

[aditya]

am i the only one who thinks ben gordon is selfish? i know he can make shots after shots... gordon just missed a 3 pter against boston in the dying seconds of the first half, miller got the rebound and scored for chicago, but gordon is still complainign to the refs that he got fouled (i am sure the people watching game 1 saw this)...i mean chicago's winning by like 10 and instead of being happy and going to the locker room...

i also get the feeling that all he thinks about is his new contract....i mean, has anyone ever seen ben gordon smiling?

[aditya]

man bennett salvatore is having a bad game...!!!

[Chris]

I think Dallas has enough momentum to knock off the Spurs. By the way a player by the name of Dirk Nowitzki may be worth a lot closer to DUncan than you think

[aditya]

ben wallace wasnt supposed to play game 1....

[Peter]

what are your thoughts on Rose's record tieing debut and Bull's victory over the celtics, doug?

Blogger's note: Kid played well in a really close, not-particularly-well-played game.

[aditya]

eh man....i know chris paul scored 38 ( i think) in his first playoff game against dallas....and we then knew he was really really really good...but that was like his 2nd or 3rd year...

D-ROSE is for real...jump shots, passing, strength, determination, humble, speed....and THIS IS HIS FIRST YEAR....

[Joe]

Hey Doug,
Any bar recommendations in Sauga tonight? Preferably one with the Miami-Atl game?

[Joe]

Sorry, not Miami Game I meant Dallas or Portlands game for Tonite. Any places in Mississauga showing it ?

Blogger's note: It's on The Score; I presume any place with cable and more than one TV would put it on somewhere

[aditya]

have you seen dick bavetta many games this season, as many as last season, because i havent noticed him as much....maybe, the league is letting him do fewer games

[Ian]

They're late starts, but what about blogging a Denver - New Orleans game?

[aditya]

DID YOU JUST SEE JASON TERRY GIVE A 2-HANDED SHOVE TO BRUCE BOWEN AT THE END OF THE FIRST HALF? SHOULD HAVE BEEN A TECHNICAL FOUL BUT SADLY MR.BAVETTA (WHO NEEDS TO RETIRE) MISSED IT AND BRUCE BOWEN COULD SEE TELLING BAVETTA DURING THE POSSESSION ABOUT THE PUSH/SHOVE

[doug]

excellent article as to your insights and predictions. These playoffs I feel will produce a few surprises as the Nuggets or the Rockets could surprise plus the Jazz, I wonder if people realize the Jazz had a far superior record when Boozer was hurt, since he has been back they have in fact regressed as he has cut into Milsap's minutes, be interesting to see how Sloan handles that situation.

I was deeply disappointed in the Bulls-Celts game today I caught the last quarter and it was a buffet of mistakes, missed, ill-advised shots, and poor decision making in terms of fouling individuals. People will rave about Rose, Noah, but to me it exposes the Celts weaknesses moreso then those players strengths. Fans and media alike are still comparing this Celts team to last years edition not even close, today's game totally magnified how the Celts miss Garnett in terms of his leadership, intensity, it was like the Celts of old under Pierce's regime which is to say a uninspiring team. Both these teams the way they played today would be chewed up and spit out not only by the Magic, and the Cavs but also the Raps...this in my opinion is a nothing series in the grand scheme of things unless Garnett makes a return.