Some quick fixes and some TV scheduling news

So I think that chat thing went pretty well yesterday afternoon, no?

STEVE RUSSELL/TORONTO STAR

What killed the Raptors this year? Part of it was Jose doing this too much in a suit. How do they fix it? Read on.

Sorry we couldn’t get to every question – my guy did an excellent job going through them though. Was a bit weird for me since I didn’t have my usual access to the comments – I was a “panelist” – but almost every topic got covered.

Figure we should do another one? Maybe before the lottery? Or after?

Send along notes – you have a lot of different ways to reach me – and we’ll get it all worked out.

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Far be it from me to give Bryan Colangelo any advice (oh, wait, that’s exactly what this space is for, no?) but here’s my Fave Five Ways To Fix It:

Upgrade The Wings

Okay, so there are two ways to go here.

The first is to re-sign Marion at a good number (I’d say between $5-$7 million a season on a three, maybe four-year deal), use as much of the mid-level exception as he can to acquire a two-guard.

The second is to sign-and-trade Marion for a two-guard or small forward and use some mid-level money to fill the other role.

Get Jose Some Help

I swear I said this out loud on the train coming back from Ottawa last October: They better get some trainer to go live with Jose because if he gets hurt, they’re dead.

Seems I was right and even though I expect Roko Ukic to come back better, I still think up-grading the backup point guard spot is huge.

How? Easy. Re-sign Anthony Parker to fill that role.

Depth On The Wings

Now, I love Jason Kapono as a guy. Funny, irreverent, can hit a gentle draw with a 4-iron like few Raptors ever could (actually, that’s just what I’m told, maybe he hits it off the hozzle every time). But I’m not sure this is the right, um, fit for him.

So if I’m Bryan, I find a taker out there on the market; it might mean taking back an extra year of salary but it’s probably best for everyone.

And the sooner the better so Jason doesn’t have to carry his cellphone on the course all summer.

Bring Back Delfino

I know his stature has grown disproportionately since he’s been in Russia – I swear people have such short memories, it’s hilarious – but he’s versatile, can hit a three and he can take Joey’s place because, as much as it pains me to say, I think Mr. Graham has to move on.

Cull The Bigs

There’s no way, on a 13- or 14-man roster (and finances will likely dictate that again), that the Raptors can have Kris Humphries, Nate Jawai, Patrick O’Bryant and Pops Mensah-Bonsu all on the bench. It’s simply too many bodies for too few roles. It really doesn’t matter to me who they keep but they cannot keep them all.

Now, you’ll notice I haven’t once mentioned that Bosh fellow.

Why?

It’s easy. He’s not going anywhere, he shouldn’t be going anywhere and he should remain the foundation. You can’t convince me that trading away by far the best player on the team makes any sense whatsoever.

Ask yourself this:

What’s the absolute best case scenario?

He comes back, has a monster year (and he’s been 20 and almost 10, if not 10, every season for four seasons now and he decides to stay for another long-term deal. And remember this: The last time he could have found a way to leave, his team came off a 27-win season and he signed a new contract.

Now, as yourself this:

What’s the absolute worst case scenario?

They blow again next year and he opts and leaves as a free agent.

Where’s that leave Toronto? Well, it leaves them with his entire salary to spend on what is generally considered the greatest free agent class in the history of free agent classes and if they can’t get two or three players of their own choosing with that money, I’d be shocked.

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This might be the biggest piece of non-news in the history of non-news.

Chris Bosh won’t demand trade!

Seriously, of all the gobbledy-gook that came out of Thursday’s let’s-get-the-seaosn-officially-over-with media session, the fact Bosh said he’s not going to force any issue with the Raptors might have been the most yawn-inducing.

It would be so out of character for him to even contemplate something like that to think otherwise is almost delusional.

Bosh is a rather, um, laid-back guy – too laid back for some – who doesn’t ever want to rock the boat. He takes what comes, deals with it and never looks too far into the future or the past. That’s his DNA and it’s not going to change.

It’ll cause some angst around here, it already has, because he’s not going to play along with anyone wanting to discuss his future. But, as the noted philosopher Shawn Marion put it yesterday discussing another matter, “it is what it is.”

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Do you think a weekend in Montreal with Shawn Marion would be any good?

“I heard Montreal is crazy up there so I’m going up there, too. You can follow me on tour.”

Boss? I’ll be back in a wee bit.

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A little post-season mail thingy:

Q: Can you give us any good reasons why the NBA doesn't rearrange match ups after every round so that the best remaining team is playing the worst remaining team (in their conference), the second best playing the second worst and so on. The ways things are seems to leave a lot to chance, for example the 6th seed might be better off than the 5th seed as they won't have to play the 1st seed in the second round. Even though they have a tougher first round opponent than the 5th seed you could argue that it is worth it to not have to play the 1st seed in the second round. And so on.

David S, Toronto

A: Yes, I can. Two actually.

One has to do with television; the networks that do games during the week want to have a game a night, which is much better for us viewers and much better than having two or three dark nights to stop playoff broadcast momentum.

And the other one has to do with competition, and I’m okay with it.

If the eighth seed upsets a No. 1, shouldn’t they get what’s perceived as a “reward” of playing 4-5 rather than have to play, say, the second seed?

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Hey, know what I’ve got?

The Canadian TV schedule for the first week of the playoffs.

Hey, know what I know?

All 22 games are going to be available and only two are on TSN2.

I really don’t want to list ‘em all here so we’ll just go through the weekend.

Saturday, The Score’s got a triple-header – Chicago-Boston at 12:30 p.m. and an 8 p.m. twinbill of Dallas-San Antonio and Houston-Portland with Detroit-Cleveland at 3 on ABC.

Sunday, after the 3 p.m. Jazz-Lakers game on ABC, RaptorsTV has Orlando-Philly at 5:30 and New Orleans-Denver at 10:30 with The Score doing Miami at Atlanta at 8 p.m.

Tell you what I’ll do, just for you. If you’d like an in-game blog for one of the Sunday evening affairs, I’ll be around. I’m thinking Miami-Atlanta so we can check out Jermaine and Jamario but if enough of you feel strongly about one of the others, I can be persuaded to change.

An offer of compensation would help, too.

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Comments

[dc]

i totally agree on what the raptors have to do to address their continued match-up problems at the wing and back-up PG spots, and too many unproductive big guys.
Colangelo ought to offer you a bonus every time your analysis is consistent with his!
Don't forget, Marcus Banks is still on the books for a lot of money. Hopefully a team willing to take Kapono/Graham/a big will allow Banks to be thrown in for some sort of package deal, freeing up some more cash.

thanks for a great season, Doug. i mean, the basketball was terrible but you're delightfully snarky.

Blogger's note: Just one point: Not once in the three years remaining on his contract will Marcus Banks make even the average NBA salary.

[Tom L]

I agree with the "Don't Trade Your Best Player" theory (unless, of course, some incredible offer comes along). While I completely respect the view "we need to get at least something before he leaves", there are two key reasons for keeping him:

1) Break the cycle of "we'll never be able to keep a marquee player here because we're the Toronto Raptors - a franchise that is not to be respected" We will perpetually gamble on draft picks and youth and perhaps get lucky aka Portland (who may not be able to keep all those bodies long enough to win a championship, btw). By committing to a marquee player and showing you are not afraid everyone will leave at the end of their contracts, it may breed confidence in free agents to join and build around a strong core (Bosh, Bargs and Calderon). I would love for Toronto fans (some of the most loyal in the league) to lose the "no one really wants to play here" attitude and develop a "we have an excellent city and fan base here - and pride - why in the hell wouldn't you want to play here?" attitude. Look at the reaction Pops got some nights - would you see that in many other areas to the same degree? Unlikely. Do you think Pops wants to sign here? Betcha he loves the city and atmosphere. Would guys like Kobe/Lebron NOT play here due to lower marketing potential? Sure, but that's more about the top hand full of players.
2) I'm stealing this from Mr. Doug Smith from his Hoops interview yesterday (as I happen to have the same view)... And this is important: What is the absolutely WORST thing that can happen if we do NOT trade Bosh?! We have what.. $17M avail (not 100% sure of the number) in cap room. So you then can likely two very good players to work with Jose/Andrea. For $17M you could likely get something like a Gerald Wallace (~$10M) and likely a David Lee type (probably due ~$7M). Doesn't make sense to speculate, but look at the quality in the $7 to $10M range and you'll be able to sign 2 players to that Bosh total. Again - that's worst case.

[Waggy]

Hey Doug. You watch basketball, you know Houston Portland is the most intriguing first round matchup. You know you want to do the blog for it. Come on... you know you do!!! haha. Keep up the good work

[Matt]

Hey Doug, if Delfino comes back what role will he play? The same one he used to (backup 2)? Or will he see increased minutes?

Blogger's note: It really depends who else is on the roster but I can seem him both as a starter and a backup. Again, it's too hard to even guess.

[Lake Simcoe]

Doug you miss one fix: fire the TSN2 guys....

[dallas]

Doug I had that same thought about Marion. I asked my wife if she thought he could use a wing man. Anyway, to your point about the worst case if Bosh leaves: If Bosh leaves and is not traded we only have our room under the cap to sign FA's or take back a contract. We as you always point out, are over the cap and below the luxury tax, so if we pay Bosh 17, and he leaves, we may only have us 7 or 8 mil under the cap, and having that under the cap may actually cost us the ability to use the mle. So it could be like a 2 or 3 mil net gain. That, imo, would be the worst case scenario.

I'm glad they are keeping Jay. I like Iavaroni coming in, I'd like Marion back. A lot depends on what Bosh does, if he refuses n hefty extension, well, this summer I think they have to see what's out there.

[brennan]

PHILLY is a team with a handful of players who can run but have no shooters

TORONTO is a team with a handful of shooters but have no one who can run

ahem, kapono...cough....trade bait.....

[Brad Drew]

I think there are some salary cap misconceptions in your 'fixes' for the team. First, I'm almost certain that teams that are under the cap don't have the mid-level exception available to them. You don't have both the cap space, and the exceptions. You would have to renounce the exceptions in order to claim 100% of the cap space.

Second, the Chris Bosh leaves scenario is also a little misguided. If he leaves Toronto would not get 100% of his salary to spend (unless a sign and trade is engineered). Toronto would only get the amount they are below the cap to spend. As you well know, most teams will trend over the cap, but below the luxury tax. So if the Raps are $8M over the cap and Bosh Leaves, they will only get the difference between Bosh's salary and that $8M to spend. Assuming they do spend some money this offseason, that is almost certainly going to be the case. Now, I'm not saying that you trade Bosh because of this, just don't think that there is Max Money available, expecially if the cap shrinks.

Blogger's note: If they retain the cap holds on their free agents, or re-sign them, they will be over the cap and have the full mid-level to spend
If Bosh leaves at the end of next season, it will indeed depend on what other financial moves they make in the interim. But they are right now committed to $42 million in 2010-11; less Bosh's $17 million is $25 million and even with raises and new contracts (let's say $11-$13 million total for argument's sake), that will still leave a significant amount of money under a projected cap of $56 million.

[RS]

Doug,

Quick question for you. If the Raps re-sign Marion and Parker, then use the mid-level on a 2-guard (approx $6M), then they would be $6M over the cap at least.

So if Bosh leaves at the end of next season, doesn't that put them only $15M (Bosh's approx salary) less $6M under the cap - so $9M? This wouldn't even include an extension of Andrea which could reduce that number further.

I'm not advocating they trade Bosh as I actually think they should try to keep him. But if he goes, my thought is that they'd have far less cap room than people think to go after all of these other free agents.

Please tell me my math is flawed somewhere.

Thanks,
RS

Blogger's note: Bosh's number in 2010-11 is $17 million so you're a little off there; and we don't know for certain waht new contracts might be worth; nor do we know for sure the cap number.
Nothing is cast in stone but there would be ways to make a lot of money available under the cap.

[George]

So resign Marion, AP and replace Joey with Delfino. See who we can get for Kapono. If not its not the end of the world. But how about we say bye to Jawaii and O'Bryant and bring Rasho back, a veteran presence amongst the big men?

[David]

Doug, your cap explanations just don't make sense in the real world. The 2010-11 salary obligations will increase with the addition of first round picks in 2009 and 2010. Let's say that's $3-4 million more. Unless we sign Parker, Delfino, Marion et al to one-year contracts - I can see Carlos doing that to become an unrestricted free agent in a year, but not Parker or Marion - we will not have $17 million in cap space if Bosh leaves.

Yes, we could move Kapono for a shorter contract (Earl Watson? I read that the Thunder want to add a three point shooter and Watson has fallen to third on their PG depth chart) - but I don't think we can assume that the worst case scenario is the least bit tolerable until we see a move like that made. Otherwise, the worst case scenario will look a lot like this: We suck, have about $6-10 million in cap space that summer, can't attract a good free agent, and decide to rent out our space to other teams for additional draft picks. We'd wait until the summer of 2011, when we would have major cap space (whole lot of contracts expire in 2011) and another high pick. Then maybe, maybe if the economy is still weak, and the cap is around $52 million, some free agents will be forced into our hands.

[Dan]

While I wait patiently for Shawn Marion in Montreal, are we going to see any playoff predictions, Doug?

Blogger's note: Saturday morning, am working on the package right now

[Jasizlle]

Blog the HOUSTON PORTLAND series please

Blogger's note: We'll do some, you have my word

[John]

Doug, why would anyone do a sign and trade for Marion? Isn't a sign and trade only useful when a player can sign for more money with the last team? By all accounts Marion is going to get less money than his current contract so anyone should be able to offer that money.

Blogger's note: Among the things a sign-and-trade offers is a highly annual salary increase, regardless of the value of the contract

[Luigi]

Here is an idea for everyone.... Relax and see what happens.

You all attack Doug for posting his opinions... that what he gets paid for. The man has obviously alot of knowledge on the subject so allow him to be a subject matter expert and just enjoy his commentary.

[Tom L]

As a few have noted, my room below luxury tax number is likely high. But contracts are also coming down a bit given the tough economic state of several teams. Point is the same - we'll have nice room if Bosh does indeed wish to sign elsewhere. Most teams are facing similar dilemmas and some are much worse (Philly and Washington have some VERY tough contracts). Point is you'll be able to sign a very good player or two - and this is the worst case scenario mind you.
And why are so convinced that he won't sign here? I wouldn't bet on it, but nothing he's said makes be believe he's convinced it won't work out here.

[Jamie]

Hey Busdriver Doug, Keep takin the masses to school!

Just curious about your note above: will Banks be over or under the NBA average? (Im assuming how you said it, it was under, meaning "really, they aren't paying him THAT much"

Thanks

Blogger's note: Under, the most he'll make is $4.8 million

[Harut S.]

I agree with Waggy... I'd really love for you to live blog for at least a game in the Portland Houston series, Portland is by far the most exciting team going into the post season. And weekends would be a good time to do it seeing as the weekday games will be late, no?

Blogger's note: Oh, I've got my eye on that series, for sure. Tuesday at 10 p.m. for Game 2 might work

[Jamie.]

Hello Doug,

thanks for your blog. I've been reading it all winter and I may miss it more than the actual NBA season. It figures though that I am only asking a question now that the season is over. Actually 4 1/2 questions, but they have the same theme. Here goes:

Of all the bench bigs (Kris Humphries, Nate Jawai, Patrick O’Bryant and Pops Mensah-Bonsu) which has the best long term potential? Do you actually see any potentially fighting for a starting spot (on this or any other team)? If so, what would the timeline be? And would any other team actually pick up the phone to ask about one in a trade possibility?

Thanks, Jamie.

Blogger's note: No, I don't see any of them every being starters; and if I had to pick two to fit this team right now, they' be Hump and Pops

[Darko]

Would you know which , if any, Euroleague team is coming to Toronto for a preseason game. Has preseason sched been decided yet. Reason I am asking, just read that my team Partizan is coming to the States this October to play Phoenix and Denver.
They would probably get the biggest crowd here of all Euro teams that played in TO over the years.
On the topic of Bosh leaving/staying, , how wise would it be to commit 30 % of your Cap to anyone not named Kobe, Lebron, and maybe couple of more players. Also, considering that prevailing opinion is that Bosh is not good enough to be that No. 1 guy on the team?

Blogger's note: I hadn't heard about Partizan but I'll check; it'd make entire sense.

[Tomster]

Doug,

Earlier in the season, you were pretty adamant that they should not re-sign Marion and he should be nothing more than an expiring salary. This is no way meant to be a shot at you, just wondering if his play of late is the main reason you changed your mind. Oh, and just wondering. What's your take on Leo Rautins from a personal standpoint? He's on the road a lot with you guys, but you've never mentioned him in your 'Adult beverage' outings?

Blogger's note: His play, at times and especially on defence, has been good but, remember, I'm only advocating signing him if the money is right, not at all costs. If he wants too much, I think they can survive with someone else in that spot.
And the only TV guy I usually hang with is Jack, and those are relatively rare occasions.

[Matt]

Hi Doug,

I second the vote for a Miami - Atlanta live blog, if only for the possibility of your take on at least one filthy Dwyane Wade dunk in traffic and another chase down block by Josh Smith.

Thanks for "extending the season" for us Raptor Fans,

[Amy]

Hello Doug, Is luring Childress away from Europe an option that BC may be looking at this summer?

Blogger's note: I have never heard anyone with a title or any importance in the organization talk about Childress who was a backup in Atlanta.
I think Childress' fans are suffering a bit from The Delfino Syndrome.

[SY]

Doug,

Good Morning.

Totally agree w/ your recommendations - Not to mention we have a 1st rounder as well so I say our team should be better next year.

Of all the big men, O'Bryant's my first choice - legit 7 footer, small contract, 23 years of age, not bad coming off the bench for Bargnani (we need one anyways), seems he wants to prove to everyone that he belongs in the NBA and Raptors should send him to a big men training this Summer so he can work on his game.

Pops' my second choice - energy coming off the bench, hustle, small contract, and more athletic than Humphries.

Whether B.C. can prove his worth is if can somehow turn Kapono, Banks, Humpries and/or Graham into a Nocioni or a Camby. Kapono, Banks and Humpries combine to make 14 million dollars next year - Wow!

-SY

[Patrick]

Hi Doug,

Just out of curiosity, what's your take on Randy Foye? Despite being slightly undersized, he seems like the type of wing player that could realistically help the Raptors (to be fair, I might be way off given that I've only seen him play a few times). Do you think that he could be had by way of a (reasonable) trade?

Thanks and have a good one!

Blogger's note: Foye, Jefferson and Love are the anchors of that team, I can't imagine any of them are going anywhere