Hope this limb holds up for the series

We’re all about the conference finals today because there’s really nothing left to be said about ping-pong balls and the lottery.

But, that being said, the lottery’s thing big thing here today and the 8 p.m. draw will probably attract more attention than the game in Los Angeles.

So, with the proviso that anyone hanging around here will let me escape the game for a quarter or so to give me time to write stuff for the newspaper and the web site, I’ll turn up here around 8 p.m. for a special in-game, in-lottery blog.

Sound fair? See you then

Now …

EASTERN CONFERENCE

No. 1 Cleveland vs. No. 3 Orlando

How they got here

Cavaliers beat Detroit 4-0, Atlanta 4-0; Magic beat Philadelphia 4-2, Boston 4-3.

Season series

Magic won, 2-1

The schedule

Tomorrow at Cleveland, 8:30 p.m. TSN

Friday at Cleveland, 8:30 p.m., TSN

Sunday at Orlando, 8:30 p.m., The Score

Tuesday at Orlando, 8:30 p.m., TBD

x-Thursday, May 28 at Cleveland, TBD

x-Saturday, May 30 at Orlando, TBD

x-Monday, June 1 at Cleveland, TBD

x-if necessary

Burning question

How good are the Cavs?

Short answer

No one knows for sure.

Stuff about the series

Yes, the Cavs haven’t lost a playoff game; heck, they haven’t even played since the Phoenix Coyotes were an afterthought to everybody here. But when they were on the court they were pretty dang good.

Trouble is, while the Detroit Pistons and Atlanta Hawks aren’t exactly The Sisters Of The Poor but, frankly, they aren’t very far off so it’s not like LeBron and Co. have been truly challenged for more than a few minutes of any game so far.

Right, James. Him. He’s pretty good and he gets 30 a game on average against Orlando so to think anyone’s going to “stop” him is foolish. But if the Magic can limit guys like Mo Williams (probably with Courtney Lee), Zydrunas Ilgauskas (not sure how but they’ll probably throw different looks at him) and Delonte West (that’ll be a big job for Rafer and a huge key to the series) they can live with LeBron going off.

Here’s an interesting stat: The Magic were the best three-point shooting team in the league but the Cavs held opponents to the lowest three-point percentage of anyone. But Orlando’s Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu aren’t your prototypical three-point bombers, they can handle the ball a bit and create shots as well. Lewis won’t have nearly as easy a time being guarded by Anderson Varejao than he did against Glen Davis or Brian Scalabrine but he still should be the guy to carry the bulk of the load.

Dwight Howard against Big Z? Interesting, there’s no way Orlando’s going to move Howard away from the basket too much to guard Z and his 18-foot jumper, look for them to switch Lewis or Turkoglu out on him and leave Howard near the rim.

The bench advantage has to go to Orlando. I am not at all impressed with Wally Szczerbiak’s ability to guard anyone (him against JJ Redick might be something to watch) and the rest of them are just okay. Mickeal Pietrus is the best sub in the series.

Goofy fact:

Brendan Malone is going to be trying to devise stuff for the Magic while Michael Malone will be trying to figure out counters for the Cavs. I give the advantage there to the Dad.

What won’t happen

Silence engulfs Quicken Loans Arena

What will happen

Okay, time for the mocking and ridiculing to start. I can see all the reasons the Cavs should continue to steamroll, particularly because of that other-worldly No. 23 but there’s just something – I’m not sure what it is, just a stupid feeling – that tells me they don’t really have what it takes.

So, in a true “out-there” moment ….

Magic in seven.

-

WESTERN CONFERENCE

No.1 L.A. Lakers vs. No. 2 Denver

How they got here

Lakers beat Utah 4-1, Houston 4-3; Denver beat New Orleans 4-1, Dallas, 4-1

Season series:

Lakers won, 3-1

Schedule

Tonight at L.A., 9 p.m., The Score

Thursday at L.A., 9 p.m., The Score

Saturday at Denver, 8:30 p.m., TSN

Monday at Denver, 9 p.m., TBD

x-Wednesday at L.A., TBD

x-Friday at Denver, TBD

x-Sunday at L.A., TBD

x-if necessary

Burning question

Can grit beat out glitz?

Short answer

They may be blood shed before we find out.

Stuff about the series

Kobe Bryant called his team “bipolar” after the seven-game win over Houston and given the off-again, on-again nature of the Lakers it wasn’t a bad assessment. Los Angeles looked great in its wins but fluctuated to abysmal in its losses and without home court for Game 7, they may have been watching the conference final instead of playing in it.

Two trouble spots for the Lakers are point guard, where Derek Fisher couldn’t keep Houston’s Aaron Brooks in front of him; and the bench, where spotty performances from the likes of Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum and Jordan Farmar were costly. Fisher will have to worry about stopping Chauncey Billups, a big-time, big-game performer who won’t be fazed by the task at hand.

The Nuggets are tough, tougher than anyone the Lakers have faced this post-season, and that may be their one biggest advantage. Los Angeles is far more a finesse team and if Denver gets the games into hand-to-hand fighting, their physical nature will carry the day.

Denver’s also got a much deeper bench, they get rapid-fire scoring from J.R. Smith, and an energy boost – particularly at home – from Chris Andersen. The Lakers? Well, they can’t decide between Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown; no one’s 100 per cent sure whether Bynum will start over Odom (although to play Nene, I figure they have to go with Bynum until he gets two fouls in 90 seconds or so) and Luke Walton and Sasha Vujacic have been underwhelming..

But there’s still that Bryant guy and the most compelling matchup has to be him against Carmelo Anthony, who has spent years listening to how he’s not LeBron and he’s not Dwyane Wade and how he’s not really good enough to win it all. Anthony’s been exceptional in the post-season, there’s no reason to think he won’t be again.

Goofy fact

The Lakers cut George Karl’s kid, Koby.

What won’t happen

Mark Cuban shows up in a Kenyon Martin jersey to cheer

What will happen

Brawn over brains? Yeah, I think you could make that the storyline in this one but the Nuggets aren’t just thugs, they’re pretty good players, too. And I am not at all convinced the Lakers have the physical toughness, let along the mental acuity, to pull this off. So …

Nuggets in six.

-

Comments

[Joe T.]

Wow, Doug! I think that's an "out-there" moment, for sure. At least with the Lakers-Rockets series, you got the number of games right. I think you're off with both games and winner for the Orlando-Cleveland series. Orlando may win one at home but I think that'll be it. Cleveland has great defense (like Boston) but they have better bigs and that James guy. I'd be shocked if the Cavs need more than five games to get to the Finals which, by the way, I fully expect them to also win...

[Aaron]

I'm sorry Doug, but have you lost your mind???

Magic in 7?

Not in a million years. I think the magic are lucky to lose by ten once this series.

[WA]

Stupid feeling for sure. The way the Magic blow leads had me thinking Cavs in 5 yesterday with the sole Magic win coming in Orlando.

From today's G&M: http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/GAM.20090519.COYOTES19ART22282/GIStory/

“Mr. Moyes wants to sell the club to Canadian businessman Jim Balsillie, who plans to move it to Hamilton. The NHL wants to keep the Coyotes in Phoenix and argues it controls where teams play. The league is being backed by the National Football League, National Basketball Association and Major League Baseball, which have filed motions in support.”

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm, don't you think this is hypocritical by the NBA???

They allow the OKC move knowing damn well Whatshisface douchebag owner of the "former" Sonics bought the team to move to OKC and yet they let it happen with open arms, whereas now they are supporting blocking a Balsillie move to Hamilton if he gets the team? At least he stated he wants to move the team, he's overpaying for it AND noone in Phoenix *cough* Glendale really cares (besides politicians).

[Kelsie]

I liek your gumption Mr. Smith. Not sure that both series will provide upsets but hey, it would be interesting wouldn't it?

Do you think Rogers came to an agreement on TSN2 because of how the Blue Jays are playing and not wanting to not be able to ride this success theya re having? A few friends echoed that sentiment to me on the weekend and if that is the case I wish 7 years of horrible luck and circumstance on that evil organization. They should be ashamed and we the fans should not forget.

[Michel G]

You just like stirring the pot don't you. Orlando needs game one to make this a series. It should be exciting tomorrow night.

[pete]

Hey Doug, what do you think Cleveland needs to win it all? Could they win it all next year if J.J. Hickson becomes good enough to play 20min a night?

Blogger's note: THey could win it this year without any contribution from him and lots of people smarter than I think they will

[LeeZ]

Yes, Doug, I know. You hate speculating on "what-if" trades that are often the product of a journalist's hyperactive imagination. But ESPN is reporting that Portland, Golden State, Toronto, New York and Houston are five teams that are either readying or contemplating bids for Nash. So please indulge me (it's cold outside, I'm bored, come on, be a mensch): why would the Raps want Nash? As incredible player as he once was, his skills (not to mention his body) are eroding, he'll want a ton of money, Phoenix would want a lot in return, and for what? So he could share p.t. with José? And if José were part of the package heading west, would you really want a 35-year-old with a wonky back leading your team into the future? Just doesn't seem to make sense. Do you think ESPN could be (GASP!) wrong?

Blogger's note: ESPN wrong? Surely you jest! As much as I love Steve Nash, and there aren't many who like his game more, I'd be entirely worried about obtaining him as anything more than a couple of year player
But, I also believe he'll re-sign in Phoenix, as both he and Steve Kerr suggest will happen, so ...

[Kyron]

What do the Cavs have to do to convince you that they are actually the best team in the league?

Blogger's note: Win a title

[Andy]

Wondering about your thoughts on this: http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/9586944/Nuggets,-WWE-in-smackdown-over-arena-confict

Blogger's note: Marginally entertaining and funny.

[StevyQ]

Doug, what's your take on this WWE Vince McMahon vs. The Pepsi Center for Game 4?

Personally I think wrestling should get to keep the date, as a contract is a contract. And the show is called Monday Night Raw.

Blogger's note: I think it's marginally entertaining and someone will write someone a very large cheque and it'll be soon forgotten.

[dsl]

Unfortunately for you, I think David Stern and the referees just might disagree with your finals picks there Doug.

[Pharaoh]

Doug, perhaps they should combine the two events in Denver. Carmelo and Chauncey vs Kobe and Pau.... no holds barred, steel cage match!

[chili]

Hey Doug,
If some twist of fate befall on the Raptors tonight and they actually win the lottery (it happened on the Bulls last year), and the consensus top 3 picks are Griffin (PF), Rubio (PG) and Thabeet (C), do you think Bryan will keep it or trade it since they don't need players for those positions?

Blogger's note: We're going to wait until tonight before even thinking about this, okay? Thanks

[Alex H]

Kudos for having the guts to pick the Magic. It has to be lonely out on that limb. After watching the Nuggets perform so far in the playoffs, I'm picking them to win the championship and suggesting that the team be renamed the Denver Billups when that happens.

[doug]

although i am by no means a WWE or Vince McMahon fan he must be laughing all the way to the bank on this one...as the NBA game can't be moved, it's in their by-laws agreement so that is a no-go, which leaves Vince sitting there with a signed contract, which as any good lawyer knows all that needed was to be included was a proviso that if the Nuggets made the playoffs the agreement was null and void, someone dropped the ball there...so Vince will be given a substantial amount of money to cover his losses, and a new date at a reduced cost or in fact free....but both sides will be a winner as the Nuggets playoff revenues will far exceed there projections...so all is good, except I would immediately fire that person that wrote up that agreement without that rider, that's what there being paid paid for....

lottery tonight, mildly entertaining, but I get amusement out of statements that state it's a weak draft class....that will only be known 5 years down the road, not before, not the day of the draft, or a month later...5 years, then you can judge, as these so-called "experts" have got it wrong very wrong in the history of the draft....

[DS]

Too many radio gigs with Bob McCown are tuning you into a contrarian, Smitty Boy.

[kevin]

It's going to take a whole lot of Magic to just win at home let alone in Cleveland. Thanks for the entertainment but I think you are in for a long fall on that one.

I do like your western choice.

[brennan]

melo isn't the nuggets' best player...billups is.
lakers in 7.
watching shane battier defend was the best defensive performance i've ever seen.
kobe will feel the drop off with denver's perimeter...

[Stephen]

Cavs in six. I think the Magic can stay with them, but LeBron's still got another gear that we haven't seen yet. Plus, I think he'll be motivated to show Howard what he can expect to see every year of the playoffs for the next decade.

Lakers in five. Weird, I know... but they play SO MUCH BETTER at Staples that I don't think it's enough for Denver to make up, and they'll show up for one game in The Town Kobe Would Like To Forget. They won't dominate like the home games against the Rockets, but they'll do enough.

As for the WWE thing... yeah, that was a boneheaded move by the Nuggets' people.

[Shawn]

Hi Doug, you made this statement in your last blog: "The whole mess, orchestrated primarily by Rogers with some help from TSN and Maple Leaf Sports, has been unseemly, stinky and disrespectful of fans and viewers." Being that this blog is published and disseminated by the Toronto Star and thus should (ideally) hold journalistic merit of objectivity, I am wondering if you can provide any evidence to back that statement up? I think everyone would like to learn a little bit more about what transgressed between the two parties.

Blogger's note: This is an opinion blog, feel free to disagree as you wish. And I can tell you, after talking to dozens and dozens of people over months and months, my assesstment -- and opinion -- is valid.

[Andre]

who on the magic can come close to guarding Labron? all i know is if they double team him, his teammates will be able to hit open jumpers, Orlando's PG situation defensively is REAL bad, and they START JJ Redick .... Your right about Mickeal Pietrus, but Labron is too good. Cav's in 4. Maybe 5. Remember, they went 7 games with Boston that didnt have Garnnet, and were really banged up. Denver is 6? i like that, but denver wont win. Lakers will, as much as i hate to say that.

Who are you liking in the draft? Or are you going to wait until tonight to reveal that info

Blogger's note: I'll tell you now, if the Raptors stay at No. 9, anyone who tells you who they'll draft is absolutely guessing

[aditya]

if the raptors go in the top 5 or top 6 in the draft lottery, they will be ecstatic....

i definitely hope you are right about orlando in 7...because i hate cleveland

i definitely hope you are wrong about nuggets in 6...because i love the lakers

Blogger's note: They cannot go to the top 5 or 6; it's 1, 2 or 3 or 9, 10, 11, 12.

[Andy]

2 upsets!!!?! I can get one, but 2??????
Ch'mon Doug! At least try to be SOMEWHAT rational!

[petro]

I wouldn't bet on the Magic winning in 7... but I can see it happening... and here's why!

1) 8 days of not playing is way too long a time... a team can lose it's competitive edge (and even if a tiny bit of edge is lost - it can be huge impact)... ALSO... players are more prone to injury after a long lay off like that.

2) I can see Stan Van Gundy out-foxing Mike Brown. I'm sure Stan learned tonnes from his match up against Doc.

3) The Cavs have simply not been tested... they've cruised through thus far... and because they've been so 'loosey goosey' they just might tighten up if it's close.

[peter]

I agree with you Doug, Magic in 7!

but I'm sticking with the Lakers, in 6.