Of games of skill and games of chance

Not a bad night, eh? No big Raptors news but the lottery was marginally entertaining with all the movement up and down and then a corker of a game to start what could be an excellent, long series.

The news for the locals was entirely blah but at least it leaves open room for rampant speculation before the June 25 draft and you know how much we love rampant speculation in these parts.

But that’s for tomorrow and the next few weeks. For now, there’s this and a reminder that we’ll be here just before the 8:30 start of Cleveland-Orlando tonight to check out Game 1 of the Eastern Final.

See you then.

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About last night

Welcome back

The most significant thing for the Lakers in that narrow win must have been the reappearance of Derek Fisher, or at least the reappearance of Derek Fisher’s jump shot.

I don’t think he had lost it – more like it had gone on vacation – but for him to hit three of six three-pointers was a sign that whatever funk he was in against Houston may have be lifting.

And since the Lakers are getting nothing from Andrew Bynum and practically less than nothing from the bench, guys like Fisher and Trevor Ariza are going to have to provide some offence to backup Kobe Bryant.

Fisher may not continue to shoot as he did last night – you can be sure the Nuggets will pay closer attention as he drifts into that corner for a three than they did last night – but if he’s even a threat, it’s a boost.

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Oh yeah …

That’s why the overwhelming majority of NBA people say Kobe Bryant is the best closer in the game today.

Eighteen of his 40 in the final quarter, six straight free throws to seal the deal in a nailbiter, defended Carmelo Anthony better in the fourth than any other Laker could on a night when Anthony was virtually unstoppable

You can argue LeBron vs. Kobe until the cows come home; I want Bryant when the game’s on the line. Always have. Expect I always will.

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About the Nuggets

They get 39 from Carmelo, their bigs dominate, the bench runs amok and they still blow a five-point lead in the last few minutes? Yeah, that one’s got to hurt.

And while I can sort of understand why George Karl would have Anthony Carter in the game in crucial situation, there is no way I’d have him inbounding the ball when he did to set up the crucial Ariza steal.

I think in that situation, you want guys capable of handling the ball out on the court, not standing out of bounds trying to make a pass.

Big mistake at a critical moment; the kind that costs teams games.

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Right. The lottery (did you think I forgot?) 

Big deal, eh?

Go in No. 9, come out No. 9.

But a few random thoughts:

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Get a grip

Love the e-mails overnight that suggest if Bryan doesn’t get this guy or that guy, he’s somehow failed at this year’s draft.

Memo to sillyheads: It’s not up to him. The worst part about being No. 9 is you react, rather than act. Doesn’t matter if you love Joe Blow if the team taking him No. 7 loves him, too. You’re screwed.

And, as the GM has said repeatedly, and as we’ll likely repeat repeatedly in the next month or so, there is right now not a whole lot of difference between No. 4 and No. 14 so you are going to see far fewer legitimate trade suggestions this year than there have been in the past.

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Speaking of trades

Yes, Bryan is dead serious about acquiring a second pick later in the first round if there’s someone there that he likes. But something to consider:

Teams in the middle of the first-round, say Nos. 15-22, may indeed want to keep whatever guy they get because you’ve got five years of defined salary obligations. No worrying about what the next CBA might look like, no worry about worrying about having to fill that roster spot with some who’d cost you more than a kid on a low-end rookie scale deal (no small consideration as the economy stumbles forward).

Yes, he will try; I’m not entirely sure how successful he may ultimately be.

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Okay, who’s he pick?

Well, right now, your guess is as good as anyone’s.

There’s a logical list of five or six forwards and shooting guards who’ll be attractive and possibly available – DeMar DeRozan, Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry, Gerald Henderson, Earl Clark, James Johnson – but, for now, no one is leading the pack.

The Raptors haven’t as much as spoken privately to any of them – that process will begin in Chicago at the combine next week – and they haven’t conducted a workout for any of them.

So, to ask who they like is to ask an unanswerable question. As for me? I’m not sure yet what order I’d put that group in right now; let me see if I can’t get to a scout, a coach or a GM today and try to figure it out where things stand at the moment.

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List time? Someone asked during the game last night for the worst and best Raptors draft picks of all time, an exercise we’ve done before here, I believe.

And while a Top Five of each might seem appropriate, the fact is they’ve only made 14 first-round picks ever and to list 10 of ‘em seems pretty silly.

So, how about three (and we're limiting this to the first round):

Worst

Rafael Araujo, No. 8, 2004

‘Nuf said, right? Forget Andre Iguodala at No. 9, if they were bound and determined to go big, they blew it on Andris Biedrins, who went No. 11. And he was on their list.

Michael Bradley, No. 17, 2001

Good kid, led NCAA in field goal percentage, couldn’t play a lick.

Kareem Rush, No. 20, 2002

Traded immediately for Lindsey Hunter and Chris Jefferies, one guy who really wasn’t interested in being here and another who had no right being in the NBA.

Best

Morris Peterson, No. 21, 2000

They got seven seasons and 542 regular season games out of a guy who fans still love and want back. Not bad for that deep in the first round.

Antawn Jamison, No. 3, 1998

Used him as a bargaining chip to trade for the most exciting player in franchise history and the fellow who still has led the Raptors further than they’ve ever gone.

Jonathan Bender, No. 5, 1999

Another chip, got them Antonio Davis, another integral part of their rise to something just above mediocrity.

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Winners and losers last night

Again, three

Winners

Oklahoma City

Moving to the top three in a three-player draft is huge. How good does it look now that they rescinded the Tyson Chandler deal. If they get Hasheem Thabeet to go with Durant, Green and Westbrook, that team could challenge for the playoffs next year.

Lionel Hollins

Takes over horrid Memphis team with contract that makes him the worst paid head coach in the NBA and then he sits on the stage at the lottery and leaves with the No. 2 selection? That’s pretty cool. And he can use Marc Gasol as a translator and buddy for Ricky Rubio.

The rest of the East

Bryan was pretty much over the moon that six of the top seven picks are moving or staying West and that none of the East teams that could have moved up did. He was right.

Losers

Washington

In a landslide.

Drop from 2-5, biggest drop possible; now the best players on the board might not be as good as the guys they’ve got.

Chris Webber

Sits there smiling, as much because his restaurant in Sacramento is packed with Kings fans; sees Sacramento drop from No. 1 to No. 4 and knows patrons are fleeing restaurant like their hair’s on fire. Not a good night.

Washington

Just ‘cause they really, really got screwed.

Comments

[Eli]

Hey Doug, Just curious why you'd say that Washington was the biggest loser in a landslide? I'd say Sacramento's fall is just as bad if not worse. They fell from one to four in a three man draft. That's gotta hurt. And Washington has a much better team if they can stay healthy. Anyways, not a big deal, I was just wondering. Struck me as an odd thing to say.

Blogger's note: Washington, with any one of the top three picks, in my opinion, would be a serious player in the East next year with Arenas, Jamison and Butler. Sacramento, with any one of the top three picks would be back in the lottery next spring.

[Jeff Steele]

Hey Commenter Jamie,

Can you honestly tell me you believe Roko is ready to be the backup/injury replacement to Jose playing 15-20 minutes a game next season? I realize he showed signs of potential but Colangelo was really not all that high on him after the season ended from his comments in the final press conference. If Marcus Banks and Roko are the only backup PG's next season then we are in for another lottery bound year if Jose goes down for any more than 10 games (which is not that unlikely with him playing 30-40 minutes a night).

Just remember how successful the Raps were with TJ and Jose splitting minutes down the center. They both had more energy and were less prone to injury and if one was having a bad night the other could compensate.

I see Ty Lawson as a very similar player to TJ and I would be very happy if the Raps could achieve anywhere near the kind of success they had in their previous two seasons as a result of drafting him.

If Colangelo can obtain a starting wing through free agency and/or resign Marion I think it is a very reasonable decision to add depth at the point (kind of like the Bobcats did last season drafting DJ Augustin to back up Ray Felton).

Please take these points into consideration before taking any more cheap shots at other people leaving comments...

[Boko]

#1 Tyreke Evans, #2 Stephen Curry, #3 James Johnson, #4 Gerald Henderson, #5 Earl Clark, (At this point, we might as well just sign Shawn Marion and trade the pick away) #6 DeMar DeRozan (Yuck).

[Mark L]

Hi Doug, chances are Kobe gets another T and he takes a game off...potential impact?

Blogger's note: They rescinded the last one in the Houston series; he's still at five after the one in Game 1

[doug]

I feel the Nuggets although they lost the game made a statement last night, as both the Lakers and the Nuggets are strong home teams, they made mistakes and they are usually a strong 4th quarter team, but they lost really due to Fischer , I don't know if he is consistently capable of that....Melo is a stud, and he is maturing, Billups is what he is, and as far as Odom goes I would never consider signing him to a contract, ever...for one simple reason you don't know who is showing up, for him its a motivational factor, we already had one of those in Vince who was and is far more talented...Arazia has a big upside, the Lakers I believe will sign him over Odom....

and just my thoughts but this draft is not as weak as many claim there are some very serviceable players in that list...I would take Curry in a heartbeat, as well as Gerald Henderson, as sometimes a player plays in Coach K's system and he is either the go to guy as J.J.Reddick was, or just a piece of the puzzle as Shane Battier was...Henderson can be a Battier, he plays defense, is smart, unselfish and can be a contributor, plus he is well coached....he would be a steal at number 9...and is projected at 12 in a lot of mock drafts....

[SY]

One good thing about Clippers getting No.1 is that we now have more chance to get Camby. 4 names for BC....

Marcus Camby
Walter Herrmann
Andres Nocioni
Tyreke Evans

All the toughness BC will need.

-SY

[aditya]

The Magic just needed 7 games to beat a Celtics team that had 2 scorers with dead legs, Scalabrine/Marbury/House as their bench and actually ran a game-ending play for Glen Davis. Don't start thinking Orlando is good please. (Bill Simmons)

[aditya]

i am a little bit confused about the purchase of a pick in the late first round (possibly between 17-30) because i think guys in between 17-30 are not going to contribute immediately unless you are in a re-building mode. so the first year is a wash, second year you are not sure if the guy is going to contribute and the guy is taking up room under the salary cap... i guess this year wouldn't hurt so much since there is a higher chance of earthing a gem in this weak draft...and the salary would be possibly around $1.5 million which is certainly affordable.... but then wasn't BC trying to get a late first in last year's draft also...? why?