A little mail to get you through the workday

Welcome home!

Oh, wait, it’s you who is supposed to welcome me home, at least for a little while.

Anyway, still trying to get back onto eastern time, it may take a day, which means a slight delay in this. (And I had to finish a couple this morning because instead of working the whole flight, I watched about four episodes of 30 Rock on the trip home and I may now have to rethink my opinion that Seinfeld was the greatest sitcom ever. 30 Rock is hilarious and Tina Fey is my new unrequited crush.)

But I digress …

And now I answer, before I rest to be back here well-rested for the game (that’d be the NBA game at 9, not the big baseball game to coach just before)

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Q: How often do you get tips or leads on stories from off-the-record sources? Are there times when you're just not able to find someone to confirm the story on-the-record? In other words, do you have a bunch of interesting stories that you're not able to tell the readers because they were told to you off-the-record?

Andrew H, Washington, DC

A: Sure, those times exist, but usually when the original information is wrong. If a guy (say a scout, or another beat guy, or a coach, or a low-level exec) says to me, “hey, I hear the Raptors are going to do such-and-such” and I check with people who’d know and they tell me it’s wrong, does that count as a “tip” that doesn’t pan out? If so, that probably happens two or three times a week right now. And, no, I’m not going to give you an example because it will likely start some conversation on why it’d be a good move or a bad move when it’s not even a move being contemplated and that’s a waste of time.

But, yes, I’m sure I know stuff in confidence some would find interesting. But that’s the problem, they’re told in confidence and I won’t betray that.

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Q: Do you see the Raps adding a shooting coach, at least part time, for this season. They had one a few years ago but since dropping him it seems their shooting has dropped off considerably.

Mike S, Calgary

A: This is what I don’t get: All this love for Dave Hopla (who is a nice guy but no magician) and perception that a guy like him makes all, or even any, difference.

Consider:

In 2006-07, the only year the Raptors have employed a “shooting coach” they shot 46.3 per cent from the field, 36.3 per cent from three, 78.8 per cent from the free throw line and scored 99.5 points per game.

In 2007-08, they shot 46.8 per cent from the field (an improvement), 39.2 per cent from three (an improvement), 81.2 per cent from the free throw line (an improvement) and averaged 100.2 points per game (an improvement).

Last year, the overall field goal percentage dipped to 45.8 per cent, three-point percentage was 37.2 (down from ’07-08 but higher than when they had a “shooting coach) and the free throw percentage was at an all-time franchise high of 82.4 per cent. They scored 99 points per game.

The impact of a “shooting coach” is hugely, vastly over-rated.

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Q: Why is it that LA gets another All-Star game while Toronto hasn't even had one yet?

Rick K, Ottawa

A: I should have done this is the blog Monday because I had about four e-mails on the issue.

Toronto hasn’t even applied for an all-star game for a couple of reasons. They didn’t want 2010 because it coincides with the start of the Vancouver Olympics and no corporate money would be around; in 2011 there were issues with space for things like the FanJam since convention locations are already booked. Maybe 2012? That’s the earliest and always ways, regardless of where the 2011 game went.

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Q: How much of the Iavaroni signing is Jay's idea? Seems to me that BC is hedging his bets here, and that, perhaps not this season, but next, any slip up by Jay is going to result in Iavaroni taking over. Not that that is a bad move, but I was always under the impression that a Head Coach picks his staff, and Iavaroni seems to have been inserted in the mix regardless of how Mr. Triano felt.

Shawn L, Bowmanville

A: Your impression is right so your contention is wrong. Look, there are people who are going to see conspiracies in this hiring no matter what anyone says. But if you want to know the truth, and this comes from unimpeachable sources, the Raptors brass feels that Marc is one of the best assistant coaches – not head coach, assistant coach – in the league.

But if he and Jay did not get along, if Jay had any concerns about their working arrangement whatsoever, he wouldn’t be on the staff, it’s that simple.

If there is cause to fire Jay in the next two seasons – which I highly doubt – who knows what will happen but I am here to tell you Marc Iavaroni was NOT hired to be the next head coach of the Raptors and if Jay wasn’t on board with his hiring, it wouldn’t have happened.

That comes from the highest levels of the organization.

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Q: Hey Doug, why is it so many writers and sports show anchors make such a big deal about a series being 2-0 for the team with home-court? All the Lakers did was take care of business, that doesn't mean that Orlando is toast yet - a la Kobe "the job isn't done" right?

Ryan M, Ottawa

A: Because history shows that if a team wins the first two games of a best-of-seven series, it goes onto win the series in 90 per cent of the cases.

Pretty compelling statistical reason right there, no?

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Q: Hey Doug, here is a historical draft question. Which was the strongest draft class of all time? Could you give me you opinion and also which class had the most inductees into the Hall of Fame?

Mich G, North Bay

A: My opinion? I’d put the Jordan-Olajuwon draft of 1984 at the top of the list, with the proviso that we don’t know for sure how 2003 (LeBron-Wade, etc) will pan out. The other one that’s usually in the discussion is 1996, with Kobe and Iverson.

As for cross-referencing drafts and Hall of Fame lists, that’s not something I have the time or inclination to do right now.

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Q: Hey Doug, just out of curiosity why does the NBA switch to a 2-3-2 format for the NBA finals? Why don't they stick with the 2-2-1-1-1 like the rest of the series? The only reason I can think of is for travel purposes, unless there's something else I'm missing.

Simon S-G, Toronto

A: It’s travel, pure and simple. It lessens the wear and tear on the players, which is why they made the switch originally back in 1985, I believe it was.

It’s much easier on everyone – and theoretically provides for better play – to make two cross-continent trips (one after Game 2, one after Game 5) during a seven-game playoff series rather than four (one after Game 2, one after Game 4, one after Game 5 and one after Game 6).

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Q: Hey Doug, I met Scottie Pippen last night at a restaurant/bar here in Beijing. A friend asked him what current NBA player reminds him most of himself. Pippen was offended when my friend offered Lamar Odom as a possible comparable talent. Pippen suggested of all the current players in the NBA only LeBron has a similar game. I wonder your thoughts on where Pippen rates on the list of all time greats.

Also, humor me, what current NBA player is most similar to Pippen's game.

Jeffrey M, Beijing

A: I’d say Pippen was better that Odom and I really can’t think of a guy in the league who does the same stuff as he did. I guess maybe Odom’s a comparison but I’d be chafed if I was Pippen, too.

That said, he was a marginal inclusion on that Top 50 players of all-time list, in my opinion. I could probably argue that Dominique Wilkins could have had that spot.

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Q: Hi Doug, I've got one for the mailbag. Why did the Raps let Uros Slokar go? I remember (from what I saw of him in his little floor time) that he was at least half-decent and even Leo was a big fan of his game and possible future. He could hit some mid-range jumpers and seemed to rebound well enough. Any possible return to the NBA or Raps for him?

Binson S, Markham

A: It was simply a case of them not thinking – after watching him in games and practices for a season – that he wasn’t going to develop into an NBA regular. Plus, I think he got about 700,000 Euros to go play overseas and he would have been foolish to turn it down. Return? Highly doubtful.

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Q: Knowing BC's fondness for Euro's, do you think there's any chance he can move up in the draft and steal Rubio?

Dave W, Toronto

A: No, I don’t. Bryan himself said the night of the lottery the only thing he’d even think about trying to do would be to move up to get No. 1, which is rather far-fetched.

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Q: I've been following your blog for awhile and enjoy the comments. If grit seems to be a big issue with the Raps, how come we don't hear any comments about Tyler Hansbrough as a pick?

Greg B, Toronto

A: Because, while Hansbrough bled a lot and played with intensity at North Carolina, there are serious questions of whether he’ll be anything but a marginal NBA player and Lord knows the last thing Toronto needs is a marginal NBA player.

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Q: Hi Doug! I think the real question behind CB4 is, not if he can perform to the best of his abilities, because he has proven that since he took over VC as the franchise player of this team, but if he makes the other players around him perform better, which I think he drastically fails in. Do you agree? It doesn’t matter who you surround Kobe, LeBron or D-Wade with, they will still win ballgames. Does CB4 have the same worth?

Tobi B, Markham

A: No, I don’t agree. It does matter greatly the calibre of player on the roster; Kobe didn’t win for a while with marginal talent, James is the exception that proves the rule, I suppose, given the marginal talent he had this year; and Wade? Well, Wade’s team won 10 more games than Toronto’s this year but I could make the case that the Raptors, at the end of the season with everyone healthy and settled into roles, was at least as good as the Heat.

So, better players, more wins. It’s quite simple.

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Q: Hey Doug, I remember you saying that Jorge Garbajosa looks like the "same old Garbo" playing for Khimki. Do you think he'd ever come back to the NBA? And how do you think he was affected by the whole mangled leg/Olympic qualifiers/insurance lawsuit thing? Thanks for your consideration.

Jeff W, Ajax

A: No, Garbo will never come back to the NBA. And I know people chastise me for saying never but that’s the absolute truth here. Affected? Barely at all. He’s making a great living playing basketball still,

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Q: Hey Doug, I was watching game 2 of the finals and I thought of something. Do you think the Raptors should pursue Trevor Ariza during the off season, if I'm not mistaken he's a free agent and he fits what the Raptors need.

Steph M, Ottawa

A: He is a free agent, he is exactly the kind of player I think the Raptors need, but his salary demands and the fact the Lakers like him an awful lot, too, makes it a virtual certainty that Toronto has no chance whatsoever to get him.

They don’t have the cap room, nor the pieces to do a sign-and-trade for him and I can’t imagine the Lakers letting him go.

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Q: Your contention that Bosh, Bargnani, Humphries, Nesterovic, O'Bryant, and Jawai will be the 4's and 5's going forward is a sobering one. Do you really believe that the Raptors can be a materially better team with respect to toughness, energy, defense and rebounding with this group?

J Lawson, Oakville

A: Over the course of 82 games, given better health from Bosh, Bargnani playing at the level he did in the final 40 games last year for the entire regular season this year, a healthy Humphries who accepts his role and the veteran savvy that Rasho brings, yes.

Those are the ideal circumstances necessary but if they are met, that is almost exactly the front court that won 47 games two seasons ago. Yes, Garbo was a part of that for the first 67 games of that season, but he played a significant amount at small forward.

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Q: Can you review the various recent BC signings and enlighten us on which have been "good" values (ie production for $$s). Humps or Kapono comes to mind as a potential "poor" values, especially when considering Kapono doesn’t play D (which is not his thing) nor shoot many 3s (and that is his thing!) ... when I see role players like Pietrus or Ariza I wonder what the difference a few of the recent signings might have made to move TO into the playoffs.

Oliver B, Victoria

A: Humphries, when he’s healthy, is entirely worth the relative pittance he’s paid; Kapono was a mistake. But the value for money they get out of guys like Parker and Garbo for the year he was here was pretty high.

Comments

[Alex]

Hey Doug,

Any chance BC may look to trade the the pick to get a immediate upgrade at the 2 position. Then proceed to buy a pick?

Blogger's note: Unlikely, but anything's possible

[Jojo]

I remember reading SLAM magazine way back when and Reggie Miller had a great quote about Pippen. Reggie was asked if he could be any other player in the league, who would he be. Reggie said it would be Scottie, because he's the only player in the league who could dominate a game without scoring a point. People forget how good Pippen was when Jordan left to go play baseball and the Bulls still made the playoffs and were competitive.

[Dave]

I know that this is likely shooting for the moon, but in light of today's TrueHoop feature on Ginobili's uncertain future in SA, is there any possible way the Raptors can get him this summer in a trade or sign him next summer as a FA?

Blogger's note: Can't see how

[ChrisD1]

Doug - If memory serves me correctly, didnt Vince Carter call you personally to tell you he wanted out? Do you have a direct link to most of the players or was Carter a "Special case"?

Blogger's note: I assume that if any player wanted or needed to get in touch with me, he'd find a way to

[Peter]

Pippen would probably have been THE guy on almost any other team. Next to Jordan, no one looked as good as they were. But, even Jordan couldn't win championships until he had a great supporting cast: guys like Pippen, Grant, Rodman, etc. Sort of like Lebron this year, or Kobe the past few seasons.

[Hani]

30 Rock better than Seinfeld?? How dare you??? 30 Rock is my favourite TV show right now, but better than Seinfled?? No way man!! no way!!! I shall NOT read you blog anymore :)

[WA]

Are you still forgetting to move my 8-question full court press into the mailbag folder?

Don't make me copy & paste! :)

Blogger's note: Oops, fell through the cracks again; I'll dig 'em out

[Patrick]

Hi Doug,

I know it's not all that important but would you have any information on which players will be attending the Raptors' workout tomorrow?

Thanks!

PS: Welcome back!

Blogger's note: Not sure yet; some travel plans still up in the air. We may not get final lineup until tonight when they actually get here

[kazbid]

A: Because history shows that if a team wins the first two games of a best-of-seven series, it goes onto win the series in 90 per cent of the cases.

Pretty compelling statistical reason right there, no?

as compelling as Boston being (I forget the exact #) 39-0 when leading 3-2 in a series...39-1 now

i think the 2-3-2 format makes it tough for ORL though cuz if it was 2-2-1-1-1...they could take the 2 at home and have an excuse for losing game 5 on the road only to rebound at home in game 6

now they have to take 2 of the next 3 at home..and then steal game 6 on the road

Blogger's note: Yeah, I'd say 90 per cent is pretty compelling.

[TC]

Hey doug,
can you make a top 5 thats your favourite in the draft right now and top 5 that the raptors should look at?

Blogger's note: Yeah, eventually. Too early at the moment

[dsl]

Hey Doug,

Want to change your thoughts on the brewing Alston/ Nelson PG controversy yet? It's not reached the forefront and it's not yet 'the' problem, but I think it's slowly developing. Guard play is emerging as a problem for Orlando and Rafer looks like the guy I remember in Toronto.

If this were in a city whose fans made more 'noise' (read: complaints), like Toronto, New York, etc we'd already be knee deep in PG controversy. I think that's what is most interesting here - very few writers seemed to be wondering what negative effects Nelson's return might have. Maybe they were saving their thoughts for the inevitable Magic 2009 obituaries?

Blogger's note: If it's not in the forefront and not a story and, frankly, not an issue after one game, no, I don't want to re-think anything right now. The fact is, you can't have a controversy between two guys if NONE of the guards is playing.

[Christian]

I've been reading Rasho as part of the raptor's line-up. Will he be signed by the raptors again?

[fg]

if the raps got evans,
why would they still want Rasho???
this doesnt make sense,
I was really hoping that kapono and fillers would be traded for crawford, but i guess that was overhyping kaponos value....

wow kaponos value is really really low .........
i guess the raps wont be drafting Blair or a big man,
they have jawaii, humps, bargs, bosh, pops?, evans, obryant
am i missing anyone, isnt that alot to cover the 4-5 position?

[Simon S-G]

Seinfeld still is the greatest sitcom ever. 30 Rock is the best show on TV right now!

[GM]

Lotsa comments today:

1. The question wasn't about Hopla. It was about a shooting coach in general. I'll add to it. How many teams have a shooting coach? I don't know if your stats mean much because it may take some time for a player to adapt to the new shooting techniques and you may not see results until the next season.

2. Is it not possible Jay would be wary of not ruffling feathers? He doesn't want to upset his boss. He's no dummy. He knows there's a relationship with Iavaroni and Colangelo. In what scenario would this rookie coach tell his boss that he couldn't work with Iavaroni? And while I don't believe Iavaroni was hired to be the head coach, you can rest assured that if Triano is fired at some point, one of the assistants is going to elevated to interim coach. And that'd be Iavaroni. And it's smart to have an assistant that's capable of being a head coach in a pinch.

3. If the team that wins the first two home games of a best-of-7 goes on to win 90 percent of the time, that means 10 percent of the time they don't. Which means it happens. And since these two teams aren't any other teams in history, we don't know how they will react.

4. I'm one of the people who chastise you for saying never. How is your opinion that Garbo will never play for any team in the NBA again "absolute truth"? How can you know with certainty what will happen in the future? I agree that it's really unlikely, though. Maybe it's just semantics.

5. The 2-3-2 format "theoretically" provides for better play, but as you mentioned in game two, sloppy play can happen any time. I wouldn't think travelling on a cushy private jet would be too taxing on these pros.

6. Scottie Pippen sucks! And that's the absolute truth!

[Tom MacGillis]

Doug,

I didn't like your answer below. It's a good question and deserves a more thoughtful response. What I mean is how does
winning the 1st 2 games improve a teams odds of winning the series. The home team is already already favored because they have the better record and home court advantage. So if history indicates that 80% of teams that have home court advantage win the series then by winning the first 2 games only improved their
likelihood of winning the series by 10%. It's not as sexy as saying they are 90% likely to win the series but it's more indicative of how they have improved their situation by winning the first two games.

I enjoy your columns, blogs, etc. very much.

Thanks
Tom M.
Vernon, BC

A: Because history shows that if a team wins the first two games of a best-of-seven series, it goes onto win the series in 90 per cent of the cases.

Pretty compelling statistical reason right there, no?

Blogger's note: You asked why the media brings it up; we bring it up (although I haven't actually written it) because nine times out of 10 that's what happens.

[Dallas]

Hi Doug,
you wrote "Over the course of 82 games, given better health from Bosh"

Correct me if I am wrong but for the last two years Bosh has had issues without there ever being an incident. This yeah he attributed what was called a "sprain" to "wear and tear". Grange even blogged about it. Seeing how in the last two years there has not been any specific injury, yet each year he misses time, is it logical to expect htis year to be much different. Werw you refreing to mental health maybe, becaue he looked down right depressed at times last year. Also should we expect a recoccuring thing like toat to get worse with age, not better?

And also it looks like BC didn't think the those bigs were enough as we traded for Evans. So do you then now think this was a bod move seeing how we were set with Bigs and have basically no depth at sf? Personally I like the move.
Thanks

also, in the yesterdays comments you killed me for that math from an excerpt of a grange article i was quoting...Not fair. I hope you treat Grange with the same disdain.

Thanks, looking forward to chatting tonight,

[Dave Fritz, Kingston]

Hi, Doug,
The team-that-wins-the-first-two-games-wins-90% thing is misleading. In a 1 vs 8 matchup in the first round it's only what you'd expect, and a surprise that it wasn't higher.

What would be interesting is how often it occurs in the Finals. I would guess the rate would be lower.

Cheers,
Dave Fritz