All right, mock to your heart's content

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Of many possibilities for Toronto; Doug makes his pick below.

Here’s the thing: This is hard.

You talk to this assistant coach and you get this order; you talk to that scout and you get that order; you talk to this guy and you get an e-mail equivalent of a blank stare. A scout tells you one thing, another beat guy tells you another.

And then you put it all down on a screen and it looks like the entire draft for the Raptors will depend on what Don Nelson and Larry Riley want in Golden State and if you can figure that out for sure, you’re a far better person than I.

Anyway, into the breach we go with Mock 2.0, An Exercise In Futility

(Please, remember, this should be used for the basis of entertainment and discussion only, no gambling allowed):

Ta-da!

L.A. Clippers

Duh!

And that’s about as insightful as we need to get on this one.

Blake Griffin, Oklahoma.

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Memphis

This is actually where the draft starts. And so does the intrigue.

They need pretty much everything and have their choice of just about everything. The sexy pick, and the one that might sell a ticket or two, would be Tyreke Evans, who went to school in Memphis, but the consensus out there is that he’s not a good fit.

So, they do the expected, even if it kind of duplicates Marc Gasol.

Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut.

The First Annual LaRue Martin Draft Bust List You want tough? Try coming up with the 10 biggest draft busts in, oh, the last 15 or so years, that being my tenure watching these things unfold from this seat. For real, ranking them is virtually impossible and would lead to much bar stool debate so why don’t we try. Herewith, from 10 on down: Ed O’Bannon No. 9, 1995, New Jersey He makes it only because of the local connection. Remember how loved he was up here? Thankfully for fans, Isiah didn’t love him. And rightfully so. Robert (Tractor) Traylor No. 6, 1998, Dallas (Traded to Milwaukee) Not sure what’s worse, the fact he was drafted sixth or the fact he was traded for Dirk Nowitzki on draft night because the Bucks wanted him? Stromile Swift No. 2, 2000, Vancouver Oh yeah, The Stro Show was a huge hit, wasn’t it? He could dunk. But he could not play. Darko Milicic No. 2, 2003, Detroit The only reason – and it’s a stretch – that he isn’t higher is that he’s still in the league and may be salvageable. Or not. Michael Olowokandi No. 1, 1998, L.A. Clippers At least he spent a little bit of time in the league. Does his ghost haunt Blake Griffin? Marcus Fizer No. 4, 2000, Chicago Yes, he was a fourth overall pick. No, he should not have been. Nikoloz Tskitishvili No. 5, 2000, Denver Oh yeah, Skita was going to revolutionize the game, wasn’t he? He might have been Ivan Chiriev before Ivan Chiriev was Ivan Chiriev. Adam Morrison No. 3, Charlotte, 2006 No, apparently Michael Jordan did not learn his lesson in Washington. Kwame Brown No. 1, Washington, 2001 I don’t know who wins a Bigger Bust Contest between Jordan’s two forays into the selection process. If MJ tries to speak tonight, Larry Brown needs to muzzle him. Rafael Arajuo No. 8, 2004, Toronto Come on, you knew this was coming, right?

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Oklahoma City

Not much has changed here, it’s got to be a two-man race between Evans and Ricky Rubio, doesn’t it? I know Minnesota loves Rubio and there might be a deal here or there might have been one for the Memphis pick, although I don’t see Thabeet sliding past the Thunders if he’s there.

So, it’s got to be …

Ricky Rubio, Spain.

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Sacramento

The wise Sam Amick of the Sacramento Bee writes that there might be a bit of a surprise pick here. And since the decision’s really been made for them with what transpired five minutes earlier, why wouldn’t he be right? Of course, if he’s wrong and they go for Dell’s kid, nobody would be surprised.

Tyreke Evans, Memphis

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Minnesota

Oh, there will be angst in the Twin Cities; they covet Rubio like mad. They may be putting Paella alongside fish on all the best menus in town as we speak.

Trouble is, he’s going to be gone if not to the Timberwolves in some trade, at least to one of the four teams above them.

Minnesota shook up the whole draft by getting the extra slot and no matter what, they should get a couple of pretty good players, it just depends on the order in which they take them.

Jonny Flynn, Syracuse.

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Minnesota

These guys again?

Okay, they got one backcourt spot filled with their first choice and while Jerry Zygoda thinks one thing in this story out of the Star-Tribune, I’m not so sure.

Late-night whispers sent me in another direction and despite my misgivings (I think Stephen Curry’s the right fit, too), I’ll stick to what I heard. Besides, Curry might be gone.

James Harden, Arizona State.

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Golden State

Logic says one thing but the Warriors can be so wacky, I’m not sure logic holds here. They seem to be divesting themselves of Jamal Crawford for a couple of iffy guards, which does nothing to solve the Monta Ellis dilemma, he’s still their best point guard and I don’t think they take anyone ahead of him.

Holiday didn’t work out for them, and they really don’t need to go off the board for a swingman, do they? No, which means they might.

Let’s go with the one that makes sense and hope Nellie and Larry Riley concur:

Jordan Hill, Arizona.

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New York

Finally, one that makes sense and one we figured on right from the start. Does that mean it’ll happen? Well, if everything unfolds like I’ve just laid out it sure will. That, though, is unlikely to have happened. And Dell Curry can have a nice birthday party with his kid. But if Minnesota scoops Curry with one of its picks, I think Harden lands here.

Stephen Curry, Davidson.

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Toronto

Okay, here’s where the rubber, as they say, hits the road.

All three guys they like – Holiday, DeRozan and Johnson – could very well be here and then it’s decision time.

And I have no real feel for what they’ll do. I think there are people around the table who love Holiday, those who love DeRozan and those who think Johnson’s the best bet to step in and contribute right away.

The feeling I got from talks yesterday is that the discussion will go on all day into the early evening.

The gut says DeRozan, right? Teenager with boatloads of potential, 6-7, jump out of the gym.

But what about Holiday? We know Bryan loves guys who can play multiple positions and I know they think they can put him on the court with Jose or without him and that’s some backcourt versatility.

But they have no twos or threes, right? That’s a huge hole and I don’t know if they can fill both starting spots in free agency. I guess they could start Jose, Delfino, either Marion or his replacement and Bosh and Bargnani, right?

Seriously, I think you can make the case for all three.

I’m going to go off the board here a bit and suggest this:

Jrue Holiday.

And I’m fully prepared to be mocked unmercifully.

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Milwaukee

Another confusing one, at least a little bit. They need a point guard but I wonder if Jennings is a fit with Scott Skiles and there aren’t a lot of other point guards left who you’d take at No. 10, are there? They dealt Richard Jefferson, which everyone figures is so they can sign Charlie this summer but what if they did it to sign Sessions?

I have a feeling, and it’s little more than that, that they go safe and old.

James Johnson, Wake Forest.

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New Jersey

For real, this is the name I heard yesterday for more than one source and, as you can read here, the uber-smart Dave D concurs. Sort of make sense, too, but I’m not sure anyone figured on DeRozan falling this far. Still, I trust my boys.

Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina

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Charlotte

This can’t be this easy, can it? My Man Rick Bonnell writes here that they want Terrence Williams and, lo and behold, Terrence Williams is still on the board!

So …

Terrence Williams, Louisville.

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Indianapolis

Every indication I’ve got is that they want a guard, which seems a bit odd given all the guards they’ve got. But they also need some help on the wing and could use some assistance in the post. Other than that, they’re ready to do. But, they also need to spark some fan interest so the local kid makes sense. Sort of.

Jeff Teague, Wake Forest.

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Phoenix

No Shaq, apparently, and who knows what they do with Amare over the summer so they have to get bigger, right? Or do they go with DeRozan because he fits their style of play better? Good questions. And I have few answers. I’m certainly not sold on the other Lopez or the Amundson kid as long term fixes so I bet they take Grant Hill’s replacement.

Demar DeRozan, USC

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So there you have it.

I have no idea if this is how it plays out, which is going to make tonight rather interesting, I imagine. Usually, I’d be worried that we’re getting all set up for a terrible letdown and a draft that just goes according to script but the fact is, there is no script.

Which is very good.

Anyway, we’ll be back right around 7 p.m. to start a little chat and live bloggy thingy that’ll take us through the lottery portion of the selections before I’ll have to go and, you know, write stories.

Hope to see some of you then.

And if we get any whispers this afternoon about talks or trades or changes in the wind, we’ll let you know so click back often (it increases our hits and who knows what you’ll find when you do.)

See ya.

Comments

[LH]

Doug, I hear you when you say a case for all 3 can be made. DeRozan at 6'7" can also play multiple positions. But the thought of that starting lineup scares the heck out of me. Delfino starting the guy is at best an 8th man on a playoff team, if he starts this team might not win 30 games.

[Jenuwine]

Doug, I fully trust Colangelo on who he picks at #9. I also believe that Jrue Holiday is a solid choice. I just hope that if Marion does not want to stay, we sign and trade him for a 2-guard. If Marion stays, maybe spend that mid level money on a 2-guard.

Question for you Doug, do you see Bryan making any draft night trades for an experienced 2-guard?

After everything that has transpired over the past few days where players are being traded away for nothing, I really hope Bryan has somewhat of a strategy to improve the wing positions because if he doesn't, as a fan of the Raptors, I will be extremely disappointed.

End of rant.

Blogger's note: Right now, I see nothing going on tonight trade-wise

[Niru]

I'll refrain from mocking endlessly, instead I'll ask this. Clearly the raps are in a more win-now mentality that not. Hoping to retain Bosh being of utmost priority. Wouldn't it be more beneficial to draft Johnson as he is the most NBA ready according to most scouts, thoughts Doug?

Blogger's note: That's his key point, yes. But what if the scouts are wrong and DeRozan or Holiday are as good next year? It's a gamble, pure and simple. Either way

[Nigel]

I HOPE Evans falls that far, but he probably wont so I gotta go with DeRozan for upside and potential to be the next big thing. He looks like Rudy Gay. Jrue Holiday looks good, but I would personally be really disappointed if they let DeRozan go if he is still on the board. Besides, im not at all interested in hearing about another Point Guard controversy when all we need is a slasher!

[Matty-Pix]

Doug I hope you're right:)
I'd love to get Holiday in Toronto.

I think he's the key to the draft for us ... because if he's selected before us, then another of the guards will be available.

[xtian]

I've been trying to open www.nba.com but with no luck. Is it just me, no?

Blogger's note: Works fine on this gerbil-powered laptop

[Wallace]

Hi Doug. I think you're right...unfortunately. They will pass on ReRozen who will turn out to be a very good wing in the NBA...maybe even another Tracy McGrady. They will pass on Johnson, a tough 6-8 247lb SF with offensive skills. And they will draft the next coming of TJ Ford in Holiday. He will say all the right things in the first year about "It's all about winning and the team" In year two he will be moaning about not being the starting PG. Haven't we seen this movie before? Wonder what Calderon and his agent will be thinking tonight about the Raptor commitment to him as the starting Point Guard?

[KdubzTdot]

Doug, the Raps need DeRozen

[G-Rav]

hey doug,

i know you say it can be up in the air. but this is how i look at it. if they go with holiday they have a glut of guards with jose ukic banks delfino and holiday. then they have a glut of big men. and then were left with no 2's and 3's like you said, it'll be hard to fill those spots in fa. but if you draft johnson or derozan, then you can get a gaurd maybe in fa or something. all in all, would you consider it a missed opertunity if the raps actually did draft holiday?

Blogger's note: No one's going to be able to tell whether it's a "missed opportunity" for a long, long time. People may have opinions, but they do not know

[BrianV]

Hey Doug,
I am not hear to mock your mock. I am a rocker. Not a mocker.
Here's how I think the mock will play out:
1) Blake Griffin
2) Hasheem Thabeet
3) Ricky Rubio
4) Tyreke Evans
5) James Harden
6) Stephen Curry
7) Jordan Hill
8) Jrue Holiday
9) DeMar DeRozan
10) Jonny Flynn
11) James Johnson
12) Terrence Williams
13) Tyler Hansbrough
14) Brandon Jennings

[Dan W]

Holiday would be a good pick. Some people feel he could be one of the best players from this draft in a few years. He is supposed to be a solid defender already. Derozan shot 16.7 % from three and 64% from the free throw line. He is also not the strongest ball handler. JOhnson might not have as much upside but he would be able to contibute right away.Will Derozn be any better then a Gerald Green.

[Christian Mijatovic]

Personaly i cant imagine taking a combo guard with our pick. I also think DeRozen is going to take a few years before he is legit ready to start. I've been saying it for a while now, James Johnson has the size and quicks to play in the NBA. I think size wise at least it gives you someone to put on Lebron, hopefully Bosh is the leader he is trying to become and lights a fire under his butt if they do get Johnson.

[Matt G]

Doug,

Holiday better be freaking good. Like Dwayne Wade good 'cause the Raptors need a 2-3 like Republican policitians need marriage counselling. I'm beginning to panic...I had a nightmare of Arajuo coming back to haunt me. Hopefully, the whispers start early because we need distractions to keep our minds at ease until the big moment.

[Mike]

I know it's a bit of a gamble, but I hope they take Demar... I watched a couple of his highlight reels, as well as his USC acceptance. He looks super talented - exactly the kind of presence the raps need at the two/three position... He also sounds like the type of personality that is driven to success. He can contribute today, and in time will fill out the rest of his arsenal... interesting draft!

[T i]

Doug, good mock draft but i hope your wrong. I really hope the Raptors take DeRozen, and based on history of Brian taking chances (i.e. Marion, Stoudemire) at the 9 slot, I hope he does it again and grabs this guy. He is so damn athletic (wayyyyyy more so than Joey Graham who is just a gym rat in my opinion) - he could be a Carter, McGrady type. Just imagine for a second, a fast-paced offense with a healthy Calderon, DeRozen, Marion, Bosh and Bargnani... It would give teams fits!!!

I'm not sold on Holiday but unlike some others, I really do trust Colangelo. So whatever they decide to do, I will respect their decision and hope for the best.

[dean]

Morning Doug

This is my prediction for the day in Raptorland:

Bryan will not, or will be unable to get a second pick in the first round.

We will choose a PG at # 9, not helping us in anyway whatsoever with our wing problem.

We will gain one new player today and one only, and he will NOT be a starter for years to come.

Somehow, BC will deal another future pick of ours for something.

Fantastic. Totally predictable. Just like my rants.

Peace Doug

[Mike]

Hey Doug,
This is my mock draft for top 10:

1) Blake Griffin
2) Ricky Rubio
3) Hasheem Thabeet
4) Tyreke Evans
5) DeMar DeRozan
6) Jrue Holiday
7) Jordan Hill
8) Stephen Curry
9) James Harden(I WISH THAT COULD HAPPEN!!!!!)
10)Jonny Flynn

[b]

To Wallace: Have you even seen Holiday play? He is NOTHING like TJ Ford. If anything, he is more like a Chauncey Billups/Andre Miller type PG. He's strong, he can get to the paint with a tremendous first step and has a strong IQ.

To Dan W: A shot can be developed. DeRozan is already excellent from mid-range, and is showing signs of a improving handle. Daniel Hackett and Dwight Lewis had the ball in their hands 80% of the time at USC, and DeRozan was pretty much asked to be a stopper and to run in transition. The biggest difference between him and Gerald Green is that Gerald Green is one of the most laziest malcontents you will ever met. He had only played basketball since grade 10 and he thought he was going to dominate straight out of high school. DeMar is, by all accounts, a hard worker and the fact he started so badly at USC and then ended up Pac-10 MVP shows that he knows the importance of hard work.

To everyone else championing Johnson: Regardless if whether or not the Raps are in a win-now mode, how much would Johnson actually contribute as a rookie? If Marion is back, he would be looking at 15-20 MPG. He's a 4, who would have to learn to transition to the 3. He has good ball-handling abilities, but he makes some awful decisions on the offensive end. If you were angry at Delfino for shooting us out of games with his awful shot selection, then you would not like Johnson either. He is much a gamble as DeRozan or Holiday would be.

[Andre]

Doug, i think im going to be disappointed tonight with our draft choice.. i can feel it... Thats the life of a raptor fan :(

[fg]

Hi Doug,
just curious as a raptors writer what do you think of the fantasy writing that writers like chisolm do?? he has constantly bashed all raptors, has a negative doom opinion in most of his writings and today writes of fantays and getting rubio and letting calderon go. (not that calderon can get you a rubio) but it is that type of writing that fuels the annoying chatter and the trade hump for kobe ideologies from fans.

Blogger's note: Guys get platforms, they can write whatever they want, no skin off my nose. Most of the time.

[Kelsie]

Blogger's note: Works fine on this gerbil-powered laptop

Hysterical.

Whoever we take as long as he contributes I'm fine with it. I'd prefer Johnson, Holiday than DeRozan but I'm not the GM, however I won't be dissapointed if we take Holiday like some other Rap's fans would appear to be.

Probably a little too early Doug but have you heard anything at all about possible free agents they are looking at or better yet if they are looking to bring players currently outside the organization to address the wing positons (not including Delfino)? I know it's diffcult to speculate about players but I wonder if BC plans to address the wing position's through free agency at all?

Blogger's note: I haven't, actually, partly because I've been a bit focused on this and, mostly, because what happens tonight may have a pretty big impact on what happens next week. And I need something to do Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday :)

[Mason]

Why isn't Terrence Williams in the conversation? A strong defender who isn't afraid to go into the paint, a senior with leadership skills who can step in right away. Seemingly a good fit for the Raps, and yet no mention of him. Sure, BC has his list of five, but couldn't that be a smokescreen?

Blogger's note: No, there has been nothing -- ever -- to suggest anyone outside of that five that turned into three. And you can talk smokescreens all you want but never once in all the years I've known him has Bryan publicly lied; he is not that kind of man.

[BrianV]

I feel Demar, as a 19 year old, one year out of high school, has some holes in his game, but nothing that cannot be corrected. D.Wade had shooting issues his draft year. So did Magic Johnson, for that matter. You may have noticed they worked that out. DeMar's outside shooting, his handle, his left-hand, can all be improved upon quite easily with repetition. I cannot speak of his psychological testing. He improved throughout the year last year. I expect he will continue to improve. He WILL start next year at some point if we draft him. No doubt about that. I too do not want to draft a combo guard with the #9. We need a sg/sf more than a backup PG. Nor do we need a PG controversy which, guaranteed will happen if we draft Jrue or Flynn. Jrue is too short to be an SG IMHO. I hope the Raps grab a late 1st rounder and a 2nd rounder early. If they wait after one particular player drops, other teams will join in on the bidding for the pick. The risk of not waiting? $1,099 million/yr for the 20th pick and lower as you move down. Doug, you and I would have no problems getting out of bed for that money, but only a drone (or late 1st rookie) would work for that mere pittance. I say take a chance. You could get a Danny Green, Sam Young, Ty Lawson, Jeff Teague, DaJuan Summers, among others with that late 1st rounder at a mere pittance. Get that pick sooner rather than later. Thanks for the forum to allow Raptors fans to talk and read about what matters most, Doug. Their team.

[RC]

I like BC's past history, particularly with top-20 picks. Let's hope it continues.

[chris]

Doug - a few thoughts...
- if not taken by Toronto, Johnson isn't going in the lottery. In fact, if he is taken by us expect it to be in a trade-down or with another pick that they purchase.
- Derozan sucked for much of the year but you can compare his break-out at the end to TMac's break-out here nearing hte end of his third season and into the playoffs (where he was the best player on the court, better than VC). Derozan lit up that conference.
- Holiday was one of the worst shooting guards in the country last year. He may have PG potential, but he's no combo guard. Maybe BC sees some leandro barbosa in him or something.

Either way, i'm turning into an OKC fan if they draft Holiday.