All right, mock to your heart's content

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Of many possibilities for Toronto; Doug makes his pick below.

Here’s the thing: This is hard.

You talk to this assistant coach and you get this order; you talk to that scout and you get that order; you talk to this guy and you get an e-mail equivalent of a blank stare. A scout tells you one thing, another beat guy tells you another.

And then you put it all down on a screen and it looks like the entire draft for the Raptors will depend on what Don Nelson and Larry Riley want in Golden State and if you can figure that out for sure, you’re a far better person than I.

Anyway, into the breach we go with Mock 2.0, An Exercise In Futility

(Please, remember, this should be used for the basis of entertainment and discussion only, no gambling allowed):

Ta-da!

L.A. Clippers

Duh!

And that’s about as insightful as we need to get on this one.

Blake Griffin, Oklahoma.

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Memphis

This is actually where the draft starts. And so does the intrigue.

They need pretty much everything and have their choice of just about everything. The sexy pick, and the one that might sell a ticket or two, would be Tyreke Evans, who went to school in Memphis, but the consensus out there is that he’s not a good fit.

So, they do the expected, even if it kind of duplicates Marc Gasol.

Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut.

The First Annual LaRue Martin Draft Bust List You want tough? Try coming up with the 10 biggest draft busts in, oh, the last 15 or so years, that being my tenure watching these things unfold from this seat. For real, ranking them is virtually impossible and would lead to much bar stool debate so why don’t we try. Herewith, from 10 on down: Ed O’Bannon No. 9, 1995, New Jersey He makes it only because of the local connection. Remember how loved he was up here? Thankfully for fans, Isiah didn’t love him. And rightfully so. Robert (Tractor) Traylor No. 6, 1998, Dallas (Traded to Milwaukee) Not sure what’s worse, the fact he was drafted sixth or the fact he was traded for Dirk Nowitzki on draft night because the Bucks wanted him? Stromile Swift No. 2, 2000, Vancouver Oh yeah, The Stro Show was a huge hit, wasn’t it? He could dunk. But he could not play. Darko Milicic No. 2, 2003, Detroit The only reason – and it’s a stretch – that he isn’t higher is that he’s still in the league and may be salvageable. Or not. Michael Olowokandi No. 1, 1998, L.A. Clippers At least he spent a little bit of time in the league. Does his ghost haunt Blake Griffin? Marcus Fizer No. 4, 2000, Chicago Yes, he was a fourth overall pick. No, he should not have been. Nikoloz Tskitishvili No. 5, 2000, Denver Oh yeah, Skita was going to revolutionize the game, wasn’t he? He might have been Ivan Chiriev before Ivan Chiriev was Ivan Chiriev. Adam Morrison No. 3, Charlotte, 2006 No, apparently Michael Jordan did not learn his lesson in Washington. Kwame Brown No. 1, Washington, 2001 I don’t know who wins a Bigger Bust Contest between Jordan’s two forays into the selection process. If MJ tries to speak tonight, Larry Brown needs to muzzle him. Rafael Arajuo No. 8, 2004, Toronto Come on, you knew this was coming, right?

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Oklahoma City

Not much has changed here, it’s got to be a two-man race between Evans and Ricky Rubio, doesn’t it? I know Minnesota loves Rubio and there might be a deal here or there might have been one for the Memphis pick, although I don’t see Thabeet sliding past the Thunders if he’s there.

So, it’s got to be …

Ricky Rubio, Spain.

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Sacramento

The wise Sam Amick of the Sacramento Bee writes that there might be a bit of a surprise pick here. And since the decision’s really been made for them with what transpired five minutes earlier, why wouldn’t he be right? Of course, if he’s wrong and they go for Dell’s kid, nobody would be surprised.

Tyreke Evans, Memphis

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Minnesota

Oh, there will be angst in the Twin Cities; they covet Rubio like mad. They may be putting Paella alongside fish on all the best menus in town as we speak.

Trouble is, he’s going to be gone if not to the Timberwolves in some trade, at least to one of the four teams above them.

Minnesota shook up the whole draft by getting the extra slot and no matter what, they should get a couple of pretty good players, it just depends on the order in which they take them.

Jonny Flynn, Syracuse.

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Minnesota

These guys again?

Okay, they got one backcourt spot filled with their first choice and while Jerry Zygoda thinks one thing in this story out of the Star-Tribune, I’m not so sure.

Late-night whispers sent me in another direction and despite my misgivings (I think Stephen Curry’s the right fit, too), I’ll stick to what I heard. Besides, Curry might be gone.

James Harden, Arizona State.

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Golden State

Logic says one thing but the Warriors can be so wacky, I’m not sure logic holds here. They seem to be divesting themselves of Jamal Crawford for a couple of iffy guards, which does nothing to solve the Monta Ellis dilemma, he’s still their best point guard and I don’t think they take anyone ahead of him.

Holiday didn’t work out for them, and they really don’t need to go off the board for a swingman, do they? No, which means they might.

Let’s go with the one that makes sense and hope Nellie and Larry Riley concur:

Jordan Hill, Arizona.

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New York

Finally, one that makes sense and one we figured on right from the start. Does that mean it’ll happen? Well, if everything unfolds like I’ve just laid out it sure will. That, though, is unlikely to have happened. And Dell Curry can have a nice birthday party with his kid. But if Minnesota scoops Curry with one of its picks, I think Harden lands here.

Stephen Curry, Davidson.

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Toronto

Okay, here’s where the rubber, as they say, hits the road.

All three guys they like – Holiday, DeRozan and Johnson – could very well be here and then it’s decision time.

And I have no real feel for what they’ll do. I think there are people around the table who love Holiday, those who love DeRozan and those who think Johnson’s the best bet to step in and contribute right away.

The feeling I got from talks yesterday is that the discussion will go on all day into the early evening.

The gut says DeRozan, right? Teenager with boatloads of potential, 6-7, jump out of the gym.

But what about Holiday? We know Bryan loves guys who can play multiple positions and I know they think they can put him on the court with Jose or without him and that’s some backcourt versatility.

But they have no twos or threes, right? That’s a huge hole and I don’t know if they can fill both starting spots in free agency. I guess they could start Jose, Delfino, either Marion or his replacement and Bosh and Bargnani, right?

Seriously, I think you can make the case for all three.

I’m going to go off the board here a bit and suggest this:

Jrue Holiday.

And I’m fully prepared to be mocked unmercifully.

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Milwaukee

Another confusing one, at least a little bit. They need a point guard but I wonder if Jennings is a fit with Scott Skiles and there aren’t a lot of other point guards left who you’d take at No. 10, are there? They dealt Richard Jefferson, which everyone figures is so they can sign Charlie this summer but what if they did it to sign Sessions?

I have a feeling, and it’s little more than that, that they go safe and old.

James Johnson, Wake Forest.

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New Jersey

For real, this is the name I heard yesterday for more than one source and, as you can read here, the uber-smart Dave D concurs. Sort of make sense, too, but I’m not sure anyone figured on DeRozan falling this far. Still, I trust my boys.

Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina

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Charlotte

This can’t be this easy, can it? My Man Rick Bonnell writes here that they want Terrence Williams and, lo and behold, Terrence Williams is still on the board!

So …

Terrence Williams, Louisville.

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Indianapolis

Every indication I’ve got is that they want a guard, which seems a bit odd given all the guards they’ve got. But they also need some help on the wing and could use some assistance in the post. Other than that, they’re ready to do. But, they also need to spark some fan interest so the local kid makes sense. Sort of.

Jeff Teague, Wake Forest.

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Phoenix

No Shaq, apparently, and who knows what they do with Amare over the summer so they have to get bigger, right? Or do they go with DeRozan because he fits their style of play better? Good questions. And I have few answers. I’m certainly not sold on the other Lopez or the Amundson kid as long term fixes so I bet they take Grant Hill’s replacement.

Demar DeRozan, USC

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So there you have it.

I have no idea if this is how it plays out, which is going to make tonight rather interesting, I imagine. Usually, I’d be worried that we’re getting all set up for a terrible letdown and a draft that just goes according to script but the fact is, there is no script.

Which is very good.

Anyway, we’ll be back right around 7 p.m. to start a little chat and live bloggy thingy that’ll take us through the lottery portion of the selections before I’ll have to go and, you know, write stories.

Hope to see some of you then.

And if we get any whispers this afternoon about talks or trades or changes in the wind, we’ll let you know so click back often (it increases our hits and who knows what you’ll find when you do.)

See ya.

Comments

[Clutch]

Doug, you gave me a good laugh with your intro this morning - thanks!

Personally, I think Minnesota could draft both Curry AND Harden. I mean..Curry can play the point can't he? Why not go with the ridiculous shooter who can also play pg? And at least they could trade him for a better pg + maybe some extras on draft day to whoever selects Flynn at, say, the 12th pick.

I like Holiday as the pick..it could be a smarter decision over drafting DeRozan down the road - it just sucks.

Have a good day

[Peter]

I think, in a lot of ways, that it is pointless to get all worked up about the draft and who The Raptors should pick. Bryan is going to pick who he likes the best when the #9 pick comes around, plain and simple. I'm going to reserve any kind of judgment until the season starts and we see what kind of line-up we have then.

I understand that we're all basketball fans here, and debating who will be taken at what spot and who will be the best fit for the Raps is what fans do, I just think we can't get too crazy about it until we see the team Bryan has assembled come opening tip-off.

Blogger's note: And what fun would that be? :). You do make a very good point but, sadly, many miss it.

[Travis]

Doug, Chris Broussard at ESPN reported yesterday that if Flynn was on the board, the Raptors would lean towards him, as people within the organization don't think Jose is the right fit for the system they want to 'run'.

Thoughts on this? Jose is my favorite Raptor, but I don't disagree that he is not the up-tempo PG that BC wants. Also, Jose would have a nice trade value in the open market and could get us a 2-3 we need.

Thoughts? Any truth to his claim?

T.

Blogger's note: And I can find you a handful of other writers who have them taking someone else for some other reason. The world is full of speculation these days, some of it even right.
I don't think Flynn's a legitimate option here any more.

[Wallace]

To B: Yes I have seen Jrue Holiday play. I guess I'm not as impressed with him as you are. He was certainly highly touted and hyped coming out of high school, then he played a total of 35 games at UCLA averaging 8.5 pts. and 3.7 assists per game. Chauncy Billups? I don't think so. But let's hope you're right...or that Doug is wrong in his prediction. I do share your feelings about DeRozen, and I think he is the better choice here.

[N]

Bryan does lie. Didn't he say something like he likes Charlie V and that he has a future with the Raps the day before he shipped him for TJ Ford? GMs do smokescreens all the time to get what they want. They can't simply just lay their cards out on the table.

As for me, I am fine with DeRozan or Holiday, but rather not have Johnson if we can get Marion back. A lot of reports out there say Jrue is one of the rare players in this draft that can be an All-Star.

[Michael]

I hope BC can read this. I prefer they can rank these 3 guys on the draft for 9th spot. DD, JH, JJ. If T Evans or J harden is still available then that's even better.

And I really hope BC can get matrix back because he's the main guy for transition offense which we lack of last season.

Thanks.

[Chris]

Doug,

I dont think we are going to get a chance at drafting holiday (which is favorable to us I think). I think Holiday will be a Knick at 8 (barring some trades or serious slippage to other guys).

I really want DeRozan here and I will predict that we will get him. If not, we will regret it.

Remember this time last year, I told you that OJ Mayo would be awesome. He lived up to that bill.

Great job Doug! Keep it coming!

p.s. wouldnt it be interesting if Thabeet slipped all the way to 9. Think about it?

[Serge P]

Derozan = The next Gerald Green ... This kid will be a bust, I'd bet everything I have on it.

I think Johnson will be a serviceable player in the NBA but nothing special, think Hakim Warrick. Holliday is more of a wildcard, I usually HATE combo guards because they lack point skills and are undersized at the 2 spot but at this point I'd rather see the Raps swing for the fences than to draft a guy who will likely end up being another role player. You can get role players through free agency.

[AAAA]

Hey Doug,
Walter Hermann...any chance of being signed as a Raptor?

Blogger's note: I would be surprised if that happens.

[Ralph]

Doug,
Tyler Hansbrough won't go very high in the draft, but whoever does get him will have a guy who will play better than he is, because he doesn't seem to quit on anything. If Colangelo could get a second pick....

[Gerard]

I agree that we cannot make any comments on the team until the season arrives to see what they can do on the court. Are the comments being posted from the same individuals who wanted Ed O'Bannon back in '95? or pissed that the Raptors drafted Charlie V. and he basically had a better season than anyone drafted after him?
Let's support the Raptors and be optimistic instead of bringing in all the negative stuff before they've even hit the court. It will be interesting to see if the posters will take back their comments if the Raptors have a successful season and the draft pick ends up being a solid one. probably not and complain that they should have gotten farther ahead in the playoffs. fans are fans....

[kwame M]

I don't know about you guys but i think the best player for the raptors to draft is johnny flynn. He's the change of pace guard kinda like what TJ was for us. If we can get him and resign marion as well as bring back delfino. I think we're gonna be okay. I understand we're gonna have 4 pgs if we draft him but i believe with the way he plays teams are gonna have a heck of a time dealing with flynn and calderon.

[Kelsie]

B

To everyone else championing Johnson: Regardless if whether or not the Raps are in a win-now mode, how much would Johnson actually contribute as a rookie? If Marion is back, he would be looking at 15-20 MPG. He's a 4, who would have to learn to transition to the 3. He has good ball-handling abilities, but he makes some awful decisions on the offensive end. If you were angry at Delfino for shooting us out of games with his awful shot selection, then you would not like Johnson either. He is much a gamble as DeRozan or Holiday would be.

Everyone is a gamble, it's a draft. If Johnson is drafted we don't know what is going to happen with Marion so it's hard to predict the minutes he would or wouldn't play. He does make some bad decisions offensively (most young players do) but I don't think his transition to a 3 is as great as it appears, considering he was never a typical 'on the block' kind of 4 in college. The Delfino comparison is a stretch and we all know Delfino never met a shot that he didn't like from the 3 point line. Johnson doesn't pretend to have that kind of shooting range.

Derozan has numerous questions as well and I don't think it's so easy to make the assumption his handles will simply develop over time. I'm not as impressed with athletic ability and hops as others are if you lack critical fundamentals. One thing I will say for DeRozan is that if he wanted to be a defensive stopper he could be a good one.

We'll see tonight what BC thinks.

[Jojo]

I’m guessing it’s DD all the way if he’s still on the board. He fills a more dire need at the wing spot (Holiday, if he plays the 2, is undersized right now as best as I can tell and his jumper is spotty) and brings some athleticism and excitement that this team is so sorely lacking. To me, DD potentially fills a bigger gap than Holiday and if you’re going to gamble on a young player, why not try to fill the bigger gap? Delfino can also play a bit of PG and either the 2 or 3, and unless Roko (or Jose?) is being shipped out I don’t see the fit for Holiday.

[Mark]

I second the post by chris. If the Raps take Holiday, I'll be jumping on board the "fire colangelo" bandwagon.

[WA]

I WANT CURRY!!!
I WANT CURRY!!!
I WANT CURRY!!!
I WANT CURRY!!!
I WANT CURRY!!!
I WANT CURRY!!!
I WANT CURRY!!!
I WANT CURRY!!!
I WANT CURRY!!!

written 9 times just like the slot of our pick. i can only hope people pass him over for some reason and let him drop to 9th OR BC does some kind of post-draft swap and obtains him from whomever drafts him in a deal that involves just picks from tonight's draft or even some players.

[Jamie Buckingham]

Hey Doug...

After reading your mock, I would have to agree with the picks up to the Raps. I think that is how they will fall barring a trade or two. Taking a guy because he is young and athletic is not (to me anyways) the way to draft i.e Joey Graham - he too was young, athletic with healthy knee's so the Raps bought into this and Danny Granger is now a Pacer. I know, I now that isn't always the case, mabey 1 in every....? (place your number here) I'm wishing one of Jordan Hill or S.Curry will fall, they both fill huge needs for our Raptors. With Hill that might make Humphries available!!?. As with you, I too am speculating.

[Jamie Buckingham]

D. Blair will go to the Bucks if not there then the Pacers. Who ever doesn't take Blair will take J. Flynn (that's if the Raptors dont decide on Flynn - crazier things have happen, right Arjuo!)
G Henderson is going to the Bobcats....BOOK IT!

[Mark]

All the players have flaws. DD at least has the must upside and fills a need. JH was a poor SG at UCLA, what makes anyone think he'll be good off the ball with the Raps? JJ fills a need, but may be limited in terms of potential. Flynn has got to be the most overrated player in this draft plus he plays a position the Raps are already set at. If the Raps really want a pure PG, trade down a bit and get Lawson who was significantly better last season.

[Jose Supporter]

To all the so called FANS of the raps who love to bash Calderon, last year he finished the season leading the Eastern Conference in assists per game, and the league in free throw percentage, and assist-to-turnover ratio. shooting above 50% from the field & over 40% on 3's. all while being plaqued by a nagging groin injury! the raptors may have weaknesses PG and Jose cetainly isn't one of them. If Calderon was born in Canada he would be getting compared to Steve Nash, not bashed by the fans of the team he plays his ass of for.

[GM]

I don't watch American college ball at all so I have no idea who anyone is (except for Rubio). But I'm loving reading all the comments. Whoever the Raptors pick, a faction will think it's the worst possible pick and others will think it's fantastic. Meanwhile, I can go in with a clean slate and just see the kid for who he is as a professional. Whatever he did as an amateur is largely irrelevant. But I'm looking forward to tonight.

[Eric]

I like draft day. Especially the lead-up. It feels like you can solve all of your problems at once because.......well, all the guys are available! There's a player for every problem! U neednt worry about the fact that you can only take one of them (unless you're Minny).

I like draft day. The Raptors need new blood. Let's hope it's quality...... But the draft will be fun regardless. Best day of the year.

[Marc (Brampton)]

Hey Doug, any thoughts on the Celtics shopping Rondo and then Ainge blasting him publicly?

Blogger's note: No, haven't really thought much about it to tell you the truth.

[kazbid]

there's too many BC bashers to address all individually so i direct them to this article which sums up BC's drafting history:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2009/insider/news/story?id=4270096&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba%2fdraft2009%2finsider%2fnews%2fstory%3fid%3d4270096

(hope the link works..it basically uses that draft rater, which said derozan is not good, to evaluate all the GM's with more than 20 picks in the last 20 years or so and BC is #2 all time)

so ya..i trust BC

[rob]

Doug, thanx for answering our questions on a busy day like today.
my question is:
jrue holiday lack of productivity last year at UCLA was attributed to him playing out of position as a shooting guard? so what makes the raps confident he ll be productive playing that position in the nba? assuming he gets a big chunk of his minutes at the two.
thanx again for all your hard work.

Blogger's note: Part position, part the fact the kid was, what?, 17 years old? And they see him, as many do, as able to play both spots eventually.