All right, mock to your heart's content

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Of many possibilities for Toronto; Doug makes his pick below.

Here’s the thing: This is hard.

You talk to this assistant coach and you get this order; you talk to that scout and you get that order; you talk to this guy and you get an e-mail equivalent of a blank stare. A scout tells you one thing, another beat guy tells you another.

And then you put it all down on a screen and it looks like the entire draft for the Raptors will depend on what Don Nelson and Larry Riley want in Golden State and if you can figure that out for sure, you’re a far better person than I.

Anyway, into the breach we go with Mock 2.0, An Exercise In Futility

(Please, remember, this should be used for the basis of entertainment and discussion only, no gambling allowed):

Ta-da!

L.A. Clippers

Duh!

And that’s about as insightful as we need to get on this one.

Blake Griffin, Oklahoma.

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Memphis

This is actually where the draft starts. And so does the intrigue.

They need pretty much everything and have their choice of just about everything. The sexy pick, and the one that might sell a ticket or two, would be Tyreke Evans, who went to school in Memphis, but the consensus out there is that he’s not a good fit.

So, they do the expected, even if it kind of duplicates Marc Gasol.

Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut.

The First Annual LaRue Martin Draft Bust List You want tough? Try coming up with the 10 biggest draft busts in, oh, the last 15 or so years, that being my tenure watching these things unfold from this seat. For real, ranking them is virtually impossible and would lead to much bar stool debate so why don’t we try. Herewith, from 10 on down: Ed O’Bannon No. 9, 1995, New Jersey He makes it only because of the local connection. Remember how loved he was up here? Thankfully for fans, Isiah didn’t love him. And rightfully so. Robert (Tractor) Traylor No. 6, 1998, Dallas (Traded to Milwaukee) Not sure what’s worse, the fact he was drafted sixth or the fact he was traded for Dirk Nowitzki on draft night because the Bucks wanted him? Stromile Swift No. 2, 2000, Vancouver Oh yeah, The Stro Show was a huge hit, wasn’t it? He could dunk. But he could not play. Darko Milicic No. 2, 2003, Detroit The only reason – and it’s a stretch – that he isn’t higher is that he’s still in the league and may be salvageable. Or not. Michael Olowokandi No. 1, 1998, L.A. Clippers At least he spent a little bit of time in the league. Does his ghost haunt Blake Griffin? Marcus Fizer No. 4, 2000, Chicago Yes, he was a fourth overall pick. No, he should not have been. Nikoloz Tskitishvili No. 5, 2000, Denver Oh yeah, Skita was going to revolutionize the game, wasn’t he? He might have been Ivan Chiriev before Ivan Chiriev was Ivan Chiriev. Adam Morrison No. 3, Charlotte, 2006 No, apparently Michael Jordan did not learn his lesson in Washington. Kwame Brown No. 1, Washington, 2001 I don’t know who wins a Bigger Bust Contest between Jordan’s two forays into the selection process. If MJ tries to speak tonight, Larry Brown needs to muzzle him. Rafael Arajuo No. 8, 2004, Toronto Come on, you knew this was coming, right?

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Oklahoma City

Not much has changed here, it’s got to be a two-man race between Evans and Ricky Rubio, doesn’t it? I know Minnesota loves Rubio and there might be a deal here or there might have been one for the Memphis pick, although I don’t see Thabeet sliding past the Thunders if he’s there.

So, it’s got to be …

Ricky Rubio, Spain.

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Sacramento

The wise Sam Amick of the Sacramento Bee writes that there might be a bit of a surprise pick here. And since the decision’s really been made for them with what transpired five minutes earlier, why wouldn’t he be right? Of course, if he’s wrong and they go for Dell’s kid, nobody would be surprised.

Tyreke Evans, Memphis

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Minnesota

Oh, there will be angst in the Twin Cities; they covet Rubio like mad. They may be putting Paella alongside fish on all the best menus in town as we speak.

Trouble is, he’s going to be gone if not to the Timberwolves in some trade, at least to one of the four teams above them.

Minnesota shook up the whole draft by getting the extra slot and no matter what, they should get a couple of pretty good players, it just depends on the order in which they take them.

Jonny Flynn, Syracuse.

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Minnesota

These guys again?

Okay, they got one backcourt spot filled with their first choice and while Jerry Zygoda thinks one thing in this story out of the Star-Tribune, I’m not so sure.

Late-night whispers sent me in another direction and despite my misgivings (I think Stephen Curry’s the right fit, too), I’ll stick to what I heard. Besides, Curry might be gone.

James Harden, Arizona State.

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Golden State

Logic says one thing but the Warriors can be so wacky, I’m not sure logic holds here. They seem to be divesting themselves of Jamal Crawford for a couple of iffy guards, which does nothing to solve the Monta Ellis dilemma, he’s still their best point guard and I don’t think they take anyone ahead of him.

Holiday didn’t work out for them, and they really don’t need to go off the board for a swingman, do they? No, which means they might.

Let’s go with the one that makes sense and hope Nellie and Larry Riley concur:

Jordan Hill, Arizona.

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New York

Finally, one that makes sense and one we figured on right from the start. Does that mean it’ll happen? Well, if everything unfolds like I’ve just laid out it sure will. That, though, is unlikely to have happened. And Dell Curry can have a nice birthday party with his kid. But if Minnesota scoops Curry with one of its picks, I think Harden lands here.

Stephen Curry, Davidson.

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Toronto

Okay, here’s where the rubber, as they say, hits the road.

All three guys they like – Holiday, DeRozan and Johnson – could very well be here and then it’s decision time.

And I have no real feel for what they’ll do. I think there are people around the table who love Holiday, those who love DeRozan and those who think Johnson’s the best bet to step in and contribute right away.

The feeling I got from talks yesterday is that the discussion will go on all day into the early evening.

The gut says DeRozan, right? Teenager with boatloads of potential, 6-7, jump out of the gym.

But what about Holiday? We know Bryan loves guys who can play multiple positions and I know they think they can put him on the court with Jose or without him and that’s some backcourt versatility.

But they have no twos or threes, right? That’s a huge hole and I don’t know if they can fill both starting spots in free agency. I guess they could start Jose, Delfino, either Marion or his replacement and Bosh and Bargnani, right?

Seriously, I think you can make the case for all three.

I’m going to go off the board here a bit and suggest this:

Jrue Holiday.

And I’m fully prepared to be mocked unmercifully.

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Milwaukee

Another confusing one, at least a little bit. They need a point guard but I wonder if Jennings is a fit with Scott Skiles and there aren’t a lot of other point guards left who you’d take at No. 10, are there? They dealt Richard Jefferson, which everyone figures is so they can sign Charlie this summer but what if they did it to sign Sessions?

I have a feeling, and it’s little more than that, that they go safe and old.

James Johnson, Wake Forest.

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New Jersey

For real, this is the name I heard yesterday for more than one source and, as you can read here, the uber-smart Dave D concurs. Sort of make sense, too, but I’m not sure anyone figured on DeRozan falling this far. Still, I trust my boys.

Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina

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Charlotte

This can’t be this easy, can it? My Man Rick Bonnell writes here that they want Terrence Williams and, lo and behold, Terrence Williams is still on the board!

So …

Terrence Williams, Louisville.

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Indianapolis

Every indication I’ve got is that they want a guard, which seems a bit odd given all the guards they’ve got. But they also need some help on the wing and could use some assistance in the post. Other than that, they’re ready to do. But, they also need to spark some fan interest so the local kid makes sense. Sort of.

Jeff Teague, Wake Forest.

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Phoenix

No Shaq, apparently, and who knows what they do with Amare over the summer so they have to get bigger, right? Or do they go with DeRozan because he fits their style of play better? Good questions. And I have few answers. I’m certainly not sold on the other Lopez or the Amundson kid as long term fixes so I bet they take Grant Hill’s replacement.

Demar DeRozan, USC

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So there you have it.

I have no idea if this is how it plays out, which is going to make tonight rather interesting, I imagine. Usually, I’d be worried that we’re getting all set up for a terrible letdown and a draft that just goes according to script but the fact is, there is no script.

Which is very good.

Anyway, we’ll be back right around 7 p.m. to start a little chat and live bloggy thingy that’ll take us through the lottery portion of the selections before I’ll have to go and, you know, write stories.

Hope to see some of you then.

And if we get any whispers this afternoon about talks or trades or changes in the wind, we’ll let you know so click back often (it increases our hits and who knows what you’ll find when you do.)

See ya.

Comments

[jmh]

... what can we get for Bosh, going into a contract year ... I know we have Marion to deal with first, but in the big picture this is Bosh's last year and I think the time is TONIGHT to pull the trigger, unless they think they can finish top 3-4 in the conference this year ...

... I love Bosh, but long term the Rapts will do better to get something for him now rather than nothing later ...

[Jeff Steele]

Hey Doug, the Warriors are apparently taking Brandon Jennings at 7 according to Wojnarowski on Yahoo. If this is true, could this mean a potential gem by the name of Jordan Hill may fall to the 9th pick? And if this were to happen, would Bryan still pick from the "gang of five" he mentioned or would there be a change of plans?

Blogger's note: Haven't had a chance to ask but a PF? That's even more of a stretch than a PG

[Elvin]

Ok Doug, Shaq and Lebron? You've gotta make an early post!

Blogger's note: What's that about great minds? I just did :)

[Jonny F]

Doug, reports suggest Detroit will be letting your boy Walter Hermann walk.

Any chance the Raps make a move for him?

Also, what are the chances the Raptors trade either up or down?

Blogger's note: I'd be hugely surprised at the latter and only a wee bit less so at the former

[Stephen]

No issues with Johnson. Heck, the guy's 1-0 in MMA competition and a multiple time karate champion. It's like Hoffa, only with talent!

[Chris]

Just wondering if a player like Harden or Curry falls to 9th will BC take them over the gang of five

Blogger's note: As absolutely far-fetched as that is, I haven't even thought about asking. Maybe Harden but there is no way -- NO WAY -- the Knicks let Curry pass.
And I'm not a big Harden guy, personally.

[han]

is the draft even on tv?

Blogger's note: There was a guy around here the other day who knows, check with him

[doug]

from the NFL to the NHL and the NBA draft days have become this false panacea for sports fans, at most they are used to fit in place pieces of the puzzle, not as a lot of fans hope for as a solution..the LeBron's, Jabaar's, Bryants are few and far between....these drafts have become big business for ESPN and a great marketing tool for the NBA and its fellow leagues...but it is what it is....

that being said if i were a scout, or in on those Raptor discussions the one thing that would always stand out for me is this....in regards to Holiday you had a young man, that easily could have sat on the bench all year, but he was to valuable to do that, so he was played out of position and had to learn on the fly...which he did, and improved each step of the way...to ask a 18 year old kid, to play big time NCAA b-ball, play out of position and he not only does but improves each step of the way is not common....so that alone would stick in my mind and leave me most impressed..I have no problem taking this kid with our pick...

[doug]

I'm with you..the one thing that amazes me about the whole draft this year...is Harden. I watched him play a lot this year and he never impressed me ever, i guess that is why i am here and others are on the draft floor...he can't produce his own shot, weak off the dribble, average shooter, high b-ball I.Q. only gets you so far...I don't get what teams see in him, some projections have him going as high as 3rd....that's unreal, same for Flynn, maybe more useful then Harden in that he can be a tempo changer off the bench...but really guards like him are a dime a dozen...I wouldn't waste a pick on him, unless he was still around with the 12th pick or something...he played for Syracuse which utilizes a guard driven offense and a outside shooting game....he will be a mediocre player in the NBA where the expectations are different...

[Kyron]

TheScore is broadcasting the draft in Canada. Coverage starts at 7PM.

By the way, the Knicks just bought the Lakers' first round pick (29th overall) for $3M and before everyone starts killing Doug with comments like "Why couldn't we have done that?", keep in mind that we are worried about finding a player who can help us next season at #9, what makes you think there's anyone good at #29?

[doug]

plus a guy never mentioned that if i were BC and could secure a later first round pick would be DeJean Blair of Pittsburgh...would be a great guy to have on the bench and give useful minutes to against big guys like Howard, Shaq, etc....we need a big bodied, rebounder, would fill a void...

[Chris]

ahh the return of the Draft Gate. You can't make this stuff up.

re: Curry and Harden. I don't think Curry is that special, he is not built any better than Rubio (who gets a lot of smack for his physique). I think Curry won't be better than DeRozan or even Holiday when the dust settles.

I agree with Doug, I don't see what's so special about Harden.

[Ravi]

A public service announcement......

Everyday's television sports schedule is at the bottom left hand side of the star.com Sports Page under the heading "Toronto sports sked"

You will notice the following entry for TODAY:
BASKETBALL: NBA draft, 7 p.m. SCORE

Otherwise, try subscribing to the paper version of the Star and you'll receive the weeking television guide....

[Tom]

M Grange (tm) is saying that he's heard that Demar is unlikely to make it to #9. Most mocks think he'll will. Best guess on how likely he's to be avail? Hearing anything about what team is looking close?

Blogger's note: I've heard lots of things, but nothing seriously very recently so I can't really say

[Tim W.]

Doug, your draft seems as plausible as any of the others out there, which means it may be right or completely wrong. Every few posts seem to be someone saying that so-and-so said this team is drafting this guy, so that means this. One thing I have learned about this draft is no one knows anything.

That said, here is my wild guess at a mock draft (lottery edition):
1. Clippers: Blake Griffin
2. Memphis: Hasheem Thabeet
3. Oklahoma: James Harden
4. Sacramento: Ricky Rubio
5. Minnesota: Tyreke Evans
6. Minnesota: Stephen Curry
7. Warriors: Jordan Hill
8. New York: Jrue Holiday
9. Toronto: Demar DeRozan
10. Milwaukee: Jonny Flynn
11. New Jersey: Terrence Williams
12. Charlotte: Gerald Henderson
13. Indiana: Jeff Teague
14. Phoenix: James Johnson
15. Detroit: DeJuan Blair

Obviously in mine, the Raptors don't get a choice of drafting Holiday. And just to clarify my position on him, I don't think he's going to be a bad player, just a bad fit for the Raptors. I don't think he's a combo guard because he didn't show that ability this past season. He's a PG and I think drafting him will cause problems unless either he or Jose is traded.

I read recently Minnesota isn't big on Curry, but who knows. Perhaps they end up drafting Holiday.

There are three players I would be happy the Raptors end up drafting. DeRozan, Henderson or Terrence Williams, who might end up being one of the better players in this draft and was my sleeper pick until he started moving up.

My sleeper pick is now Omri Casspi, who I predict will end up being better than possibly a dozen guys drafted ahead of him.

My picks for busts are:
Tyreke Evans: I just have a bad feeling about him, and I'm not quite sure why.
Earl Clark: Talented, unmotivated guys drive me nuts.
BJ Mullens: Big, athletic and apparently lazy and uncoachable.
At least one or two of the PG's who will be taken in the lottery, because history has shown us that usually happens.

[scott]

Doug this sequence of events is central to what Colangelo has done as GM and its effect on 2009:

To get Shawn Marion (likely sign and trade), Marcus Banks (cap filler) and Nathan Jawai (bum) it ended up taking his originally inherited pieces of Charlie Villanueva (became TJ Ford then Jermaine O'Neal), Matt Bonner (became Rasho Nesterovic and sent to Indiana in O'Neal trade), the 17th pick in 2008 (Roy Hibbert), and a protected future 1st rounder.

D'oh!

[BrianV]

Scott, How is Nathan Jawai a bum? Have you seen him walking the streets of Cairn dishevelled and unwashed? I know it was not from seeing him play, what 10 minutes, with the Raps last year after not exerting himself for about 3 months with an heart ailment. The jury is still out on this guy. Don't be a hater.

[MW]

I haven't been able to get nba.com all day!

[doug]

the sleeper pick of this whole draft is McClinton in Miami that kid can flat out play he outperforms guys like Harden, Flynn in a lot of categories ran a up-tempo offence and go go to the hoop the team that ends up snagging that guy has a winner...

[Chris]

I'm doing my best to help out Super Doug here!

it seems VC will be traded today according to ESPN. Ah the irony: on a draft day (As he was first acquired #6 (?) i think) and on a day where the raps will pick a new "air canada" (DeRozan).

The New Jersey Nets are in serious talks with the Magic about a deal that will send Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson to Orlando for Rafer Alston, Tony Battie and Courtney Lee, two league sources told ESPN.com.

[Tim W.]

scott:"To get Shawn Marion (likely sign and trade), Marcus Banks (cap filler) and Nathan Jawai (bum) it ended up taking his originally inherited pieces of Charlie Villanueva (became TJ Ford then Jermaine O'Neal), Matt Bonner (became Rasho Nesterovic and sent to Indiana in O'Neal trade), the 17th pick in 2008 (Roy Hibbert), and a protected future 1st rounder."

Since Shawn Marion is the best player out of all those mentioned, I'm not quite sure what your point is. And since we have no idea if Marion re-signs or if he doesn't what the Raptors can get in return, it's very hard to judge anything right now.

I've never been a big fan of Villanueva and don't understand some Raptor fascination with him. He needs A LOT of shots to get his points (top 30 FGA despite playing less than 27 mpg) because he can't get to the line. He takes too many 3's despite a mediocre percentage. Despite scoring 16 ppg last season, he couldn't get consistent minutes because he would lose focus too often and couldn't play consistent defense. Plus, he was playing the same position as the team's best player, so he had to go. And since Mike James was the starting PG, and he was a free agent, trading Villanueva for a very good, young PG was the right move.

Matt Bonner is not someone I would lose sleep over losing and neither would anyone else in the league.

Roy Hibbert might end up one day being an adequate starting center. The same goes for Patrick O'Bryant, who Colangelo picked up for almost nothing. I can't believe people are still getting worked up over Roy Hibbert, who last year averaged 3 fouls per game in just 14 mpg.

And while I was not a huge fan of the protected pick being given away, it may very well end up being a late first rounder, which is not generally a place teams end up finding rotation players at.

While the O'Neal trade didn't end up having the impact many hoped, it was a good gamble at the time. Bargnani showed no ability to hold a starting position and O'Neal brought the inside scoring, rebounding and shot blocking that the Raptors lacked. In fact, it's the exact type of move that many Raptor fans love...unless it ends up going wrong. The problem was that, besides Bosh, no one else stepped up to help score. Moon regressed and Parker got older and had an off year. Kapono never lived up to the promise he showed in the playoffs and then Carlderon got hurt. Then O'Neal, then Bosh. While I would have liked to have seen O'Neal traded away for someone like RIchard Jefferson, I don't think the Marion deal was a bad one, and Colangelo has certainly improved the team with it.

Some fans hate Colangelo because the team didn't make the playoffs this year and blame him. What most don't remember is the hopelessness that surrounded the team before he took over, how they hadn't made the playoffs for five years and how bad the personnel moves were before he took over. When he did take over, he immediately changed the atmosphere of the team. He guided the team to two playoff berths and cannot be blamed for the injuries the last two and a half years (Garbajosa, Ford, O'Neal, Bosh and Calderon) that have really hurt the team.

[anon_e_moose]

Hi Doug, long time fan. I remember watching u on the NewVR and ur half time segment cant remember the name of it and I still miss John Saunders. Im a draftnik so i cant leave here without posting a mock.

MEM-Rubio(traded)
OKC-Thabeet
SAC-Evans
MIN-Hill(traded with the 18th pick)
MIN-Harden
GST-Holliday
NYK-Curry
TOR-Johnson

Also,the Raptors will acquire a 2nd pick and draft Chase Budinger. I apologize for my certainty. :-) Keep up the good work Doug.

[Lola]

I'll be going to see transformers ROTF tonight. Forget the draft!

[DougG]

I still like DeRozan, but I hope BC finds a way to grab Teague as well.

[Phil]

Doug,
I believe the 10 pick has been traded to the Bulls along with Ridnour for Hinrich.