Go ahead, mock at will

Okay, you asked for it.

The First Annual D. Smith Beat Grunt Mock Draft

I have no idea if it’s right or wrong but it’s here and there aren’t a whole lot of surprises at the moment. Those are still to come.

The disclaimer: There is all kinds of speculation out there, legitimate and not, so the order that’s here may not actually be the order that unfolds next Thursday night.

Still, people I’ve spoken to are pretty sure the six guys at the top will stay there in some order, but the teams making the picks may change.

So …

L.A. Clippers

This is the only lock on the board, isn’t it? Mike Dunleavy said the night of the lottery that the decision was made and there’s been nothing to suggest he’s either changed his mind or found a deal worth making.

Blake Griffin, Oklahoma

===

Memphis

Here’s where it gets interesting already. Does Memphis take Ricky Rubio to trade him? To keep him? Or do they take the big fella Thabeet and not worry about Rubio’s buyout or the fact he’s not all that in love with the Grizzlies (more like Pau Gasol and Juan Carlos Navarro than Marc Gasol)? Best guess?

Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut.

===

Oklahoma City

Another relatively easy one, isn’t it? The Thunder need a big man – I’m sure they’d love to get their mitts on Thabeet – but if there’s no trade with Memphis, I don’t see how they can get him. So, it’s on to Plan B, adding another young athletic kid to a team that’s got a lot of them.

James Harden, Arizona State.

===

Sacramento

They need a lot out there in Kings-land. They were terrible last year and there’s not a whole lot one draft pick is going to solve just by his arrival. But they can fill one glaring weakness with the logical pick.

Ricky Rubio, Spain

===

Washington

This pick is absolutely in play and very few people I talk to think Washington will end up keeping it. Whether they make the selection for someone else on a pre-arranged deal or trade it before draft night remains to be seen. But even if they end up making it, the guy – my friends tell me – probably remains the same

Stephen Curry, Davidson

===

Minnesota

Lots of stuff going on with the Timberwolves, who have about half a dozen front office types, no coach and a roster full of bewildered players who wanted Kevin McHale back.

Should be a heckuva week over there, no?

Tyreke Evans, Memphis

===

Golden State

Now the fun really begins. Does Golden State move Monta Ellis to the two and draft a point guard? They really don’t need a wing, do they? This is Larry Riley’s first draft as GM and I can just see Don Nelson like a mad scientist pushing the buttons behind the curtain.

Jrue Holiday, UCLA

===

New York

This is one where I have no real idea and no one I’ve spoken to can get a good handle on it, either. They love Curry but he’s probably going to be gone so now we’re down to taking what’s there that fits a need. They have free agent decisions on David Lee and Nate Robinson and could take a replacement for either here. Like …

Jordan Hill, Arizona

===

Toronto

Ta-da! Just as we expected, a few names are on the board that they like and it’s time to make a choice. But unless Bryan’s got something up his sleeve – which is an absolute possibility – they currently don’t have a two or three under contract for next season.

Luckily, there’s a guy here who fits that bill.

Demar DeRozan, USC

===

Milwaukee

A bit of a no-brainer, since they aren’t sure Sessions is coming back and Luke Ridnour probably isn’t a long-term solution at the point.

Jonny Flynn, Syracuse

===

New Jersey

How bad were their bigs a year ago? Yeah, they were that bad. This is a team that probably drafts for need more than anything else.

Dejuan Blair, Pittsburgh

===

Charlotte

Local kid makes good? Hard to see this guy dropping this far but I don’t see where he goes in the top 11.

Gerald Henderson, Duke

===

Indiana

The Pacers need a little bit of everything, although they do seem set at point guard. Which is too bad because the two best guys here are probably Jennings and maybe Ty Lawson. And that means no one can be sure what they’ll do. The troubling knee woes of Mike Dunleavy might play a factor in a wild card pick.

Tyler Hansbrough, UNC

===

Phoenix

Haven’t heard much out of the Suns about the draft, everyone’s preoccupied with whether or not they’ll move Amare or Shaquille. And if they do, that’ll have an impact on what they do here because this pick may be in play as well. But what the heck, we gotta give ‘em someone.

Earl Clark, Louisville

So, there you have it. For now.

Things could change significantly in the next week so this is for fun and frivolity only; don’t hold me to it. We’ll do another one just before the draft, after I’ve had a chance to really pick the brains of my boys and girls out there in gruntland.

Comments

[Jamie Buckingham]

I read that Dan Feagan the agent of Jrue Holiday has said that his player Jrue will not play for Golden State if he is drafted there. There is some bad history between the agent and GS over the past few years. DF also represent Crawford, Harrington and Jackson all who have had run-ins with Don Nelson.

[Denny]

Morning Doug,

With McHale out at Minnesota, does that mean Babcock is gone? If they do hire Sam, it could be an interesting year for the Timberwolves.

Blogger's note: I'm told Rob will stay on in some capacity; and he and Sam are all right now. Any tensions have eased with the passage of time.

[G-Rav]

Doug, your wicked man. thanks for taking the time to do up a mock draft. I personally would love to see Derozan come to Toronto, and see a 2 or 3 that isn't afraid to go to the rim. Do you think that if Bryan wants to get another pick, it would come on draft day before the picks are made, or during the draft after the pick is made? Some team picks lawson at 15 then raps trade for that 15th pick. also, what would they possibly be giving up for it? (cash, player etc). all hypothetical, since I know you dont like to speculate unless things are concrete!

thanks

Blogger's note: As I mentioned, it's most likely any transaction occurs Thursday night.

[Dave in BG]

Doug: Casual basketball fan, so dont jump on me for this question.

Various stories describe DeRozan as "Athletic" and "low BB IQ". Sounds a lot like Joey.

What is the difference between DeRozan and Joey? Besides DeRozan is younger and hasnt failed (yet). Are their games at all similar? Different? Is there that much difference to justify using a pick here, rather than resigning Joey (probably for less money)?

Thanks

Blogger's note: DeRozan would have a cheaper, longer contract that they'd offer Joey and I think DeRozan is a bit quicker, not as a muscular and probably more well-rounded now than Graham was as a draft pick

[Dallas]

Thanks. Good mock, as far as mocks go. I would just say I think Charlotte takes Williams over Henderson, not that I would, but just from what I've read from Larry Browns comments.

Golden State apparently promised Ellis they would not draft a guard, so if they do draft a guard I doubt it's to move Ellis to the 2 but perhaps they are resigneed to trading Ellis. Now the Team holds the cards, but Ellis is, reportedly, close to "publicly" requesting a trade now, as it is.

Lots of nuggets of things moving and things up BC sleeve.. Let me ask it this way Doug, Is there a lot of activity in the ACC this offseason, maybe more so that other draft years? And how surprised would you be if the Raptors were making moves on draft day? Would you be any more or less surprised than you would have been a few weeks ago?

Blogger's note: Part of me thinks all the chatter is just that, chatter. Like we get almost every year at this time. But I will say there seems to be much more talk about acquiring a second pick than I've ever heard before.

[Derik Foulem]

What, no comments and colored insights on the blog that we didn't get in the article about the DeRozan workout yesterday? I'm disappointed.

Blogger's note: There wasn't a lot to it, or him. Pretty well covered off in the story.

[Kelsie]

Interesting draft board Doug!

I have a feeling that a lot of things are going to happen that we are unaware of, however for the Raps what has been our biggest need for sometime now? A slashing 2 that can put the ball on the floor late in shot clocks, create, get to the rim, and defend no?

Does DeRozan do this? He might eventually but if you watched him in PAC 10 play this is not his forte right now and it's interesting that Rap's staff compared him to some 3's in the league rather than a typical 2 guard. Does Evans or Henderson bring these skills to the table? They might eventually but Henderson is right hand dominant and not the greatest ball handler and Evans can certainly create but is projected as a 1 eventually but has the court vision of a shooting guard and is somewhat of a black hole when he touches the ball at this stage in his development.

I don't think any of these prospects fills our immediate needs. They might in the future but we need to start winning now. Any feeling on whether BC has some options available to him for trades or are we pretty much intent on drafting someone at 9? And if we like a guy like Johnson from Wake, do you think there is any possibility that BC trades down instead and maybe get another player via trade plus the player they draft? I'm thinking this might not be a bad option looking at the talent in this draft and our current needs.

[Ben F]

Doug,

Where do you see Brandon Jennings going? If he gets it together from the neck up, he could be special, no?

Blogger's note: I'd say mid-teens; and it's as much his shooting as anything else.

[Mike]

Doug THANK YOU FOR WRITING BLOGS EVERYDAY!!!!! THANK YOU!!!!!

My Question is that, what pick do you think the Raptors can get easily as a first round pick?

Blogger's note: Not sure because I don't know of any that are for sale at the moment.

[jimmie]

Doug, I think that's really close to what will happen (in terms of the order in which guys go, not necessarily which team they go to).

Golden State and Washington seem like the biggest wild cards to me in terms of moving their picks. It *sounds * like GSW is now set on sticking with Monta, and that he's happy to stay, but that situation seems to change like the weather. If they choose to move Ellis, all bets are off on their pick. And with Washington, using the pick for themselves doesn't seem to make much sense when they can put it on the market and probably help themselves out a lot more.

If Colangelo wants to make big changes to his roster on draft night by trading up or adding/buying a pick or two, the opportunity would seem to be there (GSW, WAS, maybe MEM to move up; MIN, OKC, if adding, and there's always Portland...). It'll be an interesting week coming up, that's for sure.

[Calvin]

If Evans falls to 9 do you think the Raptors will take him? They can always re-sign Marion to a resonable contract and start Evans at the 2 if he does well in camp.

Blogger's note: If he falls that far -- and that's a huge stretch -- I'd presume they would look very seriously at him.

[gdr]

Doug,

Do your sources suggest the Raps will make any moves before next weeks draft? Or will everything be done on "draft-night"?

Thanks, and keep up the good work.

Blogger's note: Right now -- and things change, remember -- I'm hearing if anything gets done, it won't be until Thursday night.

[N]

Not a bad mock Doug, though here are my comments:

- Top 4 look good IMO

-Don't think Curry will go at 5; a bit too high for him, plus they already have a great combo guard in Agent 0. Maybe first reach of the night at Jordan Hill to the Wiz?

- Still think Curry will end up at 8 with NYK, so I guess a quick swap between Wiz and the Knicks

- With GS, I don't think they will be bringing in a combo guard, especially with rumors of Baron Davis and the Ellis situation, whom IMO is pretty much the NBA seasoned version of Jrue anyways. That being said, not sure what GS will do.. maybe they will bring in a more pure PG like Flynn?

- Raptors situation is going to be interesting to watch. Holiday, Derozan, or a reach down for G Henderson could be a possibility. How bout a trade up to the top 3 and grab Harden?

[Damian]

Hey Doug,

Not sure if you've had the chance to see Evans, but if he were to fall to no. 9 would you take him over Derozan?

Blogger's note: Haven't seen him so I can't really say. They are trying to get him in here next week, but not sure if it'll get done.

[Luka]

Hey Doug im just wondering about Derozan. People say you dont know how good a draft is untill a few years down the line. If Derozan does get drafted by Toronto how good of a player do you think he will become? (his ceiling).
Thanks.

Blogger's note: No one in the world can answer that question with any semblance of legitimacy. Scouts say he could be very good; I saw him work out against no one, make less than half his three-pointers unguarded but he's quick and has great athleticism. How good? No idea.

[Jojo]

Wow on Hansbrough to the Pacers. I don't think I've seen him that high anywhere else but who knows?

What do you figure the thinking is among the Raptors brass regarding DeRozan vs. Henderson? Is it a size issue? "Upside?" I'm not a Duke fan at all but I've warmed up to Henderson. I have no idea what to think of DD because I've barely seen him play and this agent-driven solo-workout thing annoys me.

Any sense if the Raps are still thinking about buying a second pick? I guess it depends on what if anything happens trade-wise before or at the draft?

Blogger's note: It depends entirely on them deciding there's a guy they want at a specific pick that belongs to a team that is willing to move it. And until the draft unfolds, it's impossible to tell. A best guess right now is that Bryan does pull something off. But that's just an educated guess.

[glenn]

indiana is NOT picking tyler hansbrough #13. he's going after pick #25

[Mike]

That's it????

[Jeff Steele]

Very interesting mock Doug, I think you may be on to something here...

The only pick I have trouble agreeing with is Jrue Holiday going 7th to the Warriors but looking back at that kid's high school career I can see how his freshman stats at UCLA may be misleading. He was hyped as a top 5 high school player heading into college and was already gracing the covers of magazines like SLAM as a potential star (much like Jennings)...

I'm really hoping Bryan's decision is easy but in your opinion, if DeRozan is selected in the top 8, what would be the best back-up plan for the Raps? Take the next best wing, the best guard or the best player that was passed on? Or is it all dependent on whether or not BC can acquire of a second 1st round pick or not?

Thanks for the killer entry today though it should create some lively discussion throughout the interweb =)

Blogger's note: If DeRozan is taken in the top eight, it'll depend entirely on which of those eight falls as to what Bryan would do. I imagine they would jump all over Holiday, for instance

[Justin]

Golden State has promised Monta that they will not draft a guard. Try and keep up.

Blogger's note: Um, yeah, okay. Sure. But remember: Promises are made to be broken. If they're actually made in the first place. You believe what you want to believe.
But thanks for writing.

[chris]

Doug -- difference btwn Joey and Derozan is that Joey grew up playing PF and Derozan has always been a SG/SF. We made a huge mistake drafting Joey with expectations that he could be a 2....i can't think of any player who has made that transition.

Also, athletically Joey is mechanical, and Derozan is fluid. Joey could be a killer tightend or running back and Derozan could be a killer wide receiver or even a ballroom dancer....

[dsl]

Great stuff, thanks Doug.

I particularly like the (not so) subtle hints at some surprises to come. If nothing else, this means it might actually be worth watching the draft this year.

Blogger's note: There's stuff being kicked around, there is nothing certain about any moves that might be made. And it's still relatively early in the process with a week to go.

[Andy]

Hi Doug.

Thanks for keeping the blog rolling - always great morning reading!

A few assumptions based on prevailing "theory/guesses"...I'm assuming that the Raps will pick a wing player with the #9 pick. (Let's use DeRozan for example per your mock). Now, let's say the Raptors get a 2nd pick later in the draft. I think most people are assuming that the pick would be used on an "insurance policy" at PG with the draft being so deep at that position, but if a another swing player the Raps liked such as Henderson would be available at the pick, could you see them picking up 2 swing's in the draft and creating a potential competitive situation for available minutes between the rookies?

Blogger's note: If they do buy, or get, a second pick, it will be for a specific player and I would assume, from the conversations I've had, that it'd be a point guard. It's not like they would simply do a deal for a second pick just to have one; it'd be for a guy they want

[D-Mac Ottawa]

Hi Doug. Considering all the slagging about this being such a "lousy" draft class, isn't there as much if not more than the usual interest/speculation going on this year? Does that maybe have more to do with the Raptors having a top 10 pick this year, or maybe the fact that you now offer a blog and commentaries? Also wondering if getting into the very public and very thankless "predicting" business is maybe more a product of the blog than you would have otherwise offered as strictly a beat journalist? Thanks for all the daily updates and insights, and keep up the great work.

[DGW]

Do you think there will be more draft-related trades Thursday night or perhaps a few days after the draft (such as the TJ/O'neal trade didn't officially take place till after the draft)?

Blogger's note: That trade was actually written about well before the draft and didn't actually become official until early July after the free agent moratorium was lifted. Stuff like that could very easily happen again.