Go ahead, mock at will

Okay, you asked for it.

The First Annual D. Smith Beat Grunt Mock Draft

I have no idea if it’s right or wrong but it’s here and there aren’t a whole lot of surprises at the moment. Those are still to come.

The disclaimer: There is all kinds of speculation out there, legitimate and not, so the order that’s here may not actually be the order that unfolds next Thursday night.

Still, people I’ve spoken to are pretty sure the six guys at the top will stay there in some order, but the teams making the picks may change.

So …

L.A. Clippers

This is the only lock on the board, isn’t it? Mike Dunleavy said the night of the lottery that the decision was made and there’s been nothing to suggest he’s either changed his mind or found a deal worth making.

Blake Griffin, Oklahoma

===

Memphis

Here’s where it gets interesting already. Does Memphis take Ricky Rubio to trade him? To keep him? Or do they take the big fella Thabeet and not worry about Rubio’s buyout or the fact he’s not all that in love with the Grizzlies (more like Pau Gasol and Juan Carlos Navarro than Marc Gasol)? Best guess?

Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut.

===

Oklahoma City

Another relatively easy one, isn’t it? The Thunder need a big man – I’m sure they’d love to get their mitts on Thabeet – but if there’s no trade with Memphis, I don’t see how they can get him. So, it’s on to Plan B, adding another young athletic kid to a team that’s got a lot of them.

James Harden, Arizona State.

===

Sacramento

They need a lot out there in Kings-land. They were terrible last year and there’s not a whole lot one draft pick is going to solve just by his arrival. But they can fill one glaring weakness with the logical pick.

Ricky Rubio, Spain

===

Washington

This pick is absolutely in play and very few people I talk to think Washington will end up keeping it. Whether they make the selection for someone else on a pre-arranged deal or trade it before draft night remains to be seen. But even if they end up making it, the guy – my friends tell me – probably remains the same

Stephen Curry, Davidson

===

Minnesota

Lots of stuff going on with the Timberwolves, who have about half a dozen front office types, no coach and a roster full of bewildered players who wanted Kevin McHale back.

Should be a heckuva week over there, no?

Tyreke Evans, Memphis

===

Golden State

Now the fun really begins. Does Golden State move Monta Ellis to the two and draft a point guard? They really don’t need a wing, do they? This is Larry Riley’s first draft as GM and I can just see Don Nelson like a mad scientist pushing the buttons behind the curtain.

Jrue Holiday, UCLA

===

New York

This is one where I have no real idea and no one I’ve spoken to can get a good handle on it, either. They love Curry but he’s probably going to be gone so now we’re down to taking what’s there that fits a need. They have free agent decisions on David Lee and Nate Robinson and could take a replacement for either here. Like …

Jordan Hill, Arizona

===

Toronto

Ta-da! Just as we expected, a few names are on the board that they like and it’s time to make a choice. But unless Bryan’s got something up his sleeve – which is an absolute possibility – they currently don’t have a two or three under contract for next season.

Luckily, there’s a guy here who fits that bill.

Demar DeRozan, USC

===

Milwaukee

A bit of a no-brainer, since they aren’t sure Sessions is coming back and Luke Ridnour probably isn’t a long-term solution at the point.

Jonny Flynn, Syracuse

===

New Jersey

How bad were their bigs a year ago? Yeah, they were that bad. This is a team that probably drafts for need more than anything else.

Dejuan Blair, Pittsburgh

===

Charlotte

Local kid makes good? Hard to see this guy dropping this far but I don’t see where he goes in the top 11.

Gerald Henderson, Duke

===

Indiana

The Pacers need a little bit of everything, although they do seem set at point guard. Which is too bad because the two best guys here are probably Jennings and maybe Ty Lawson. And that means no one can be sure what they’ll do. The troubling knee woes of Mike Dunleavy might play a factor in a wild card pick.

Tyler Hansbrough, UNC

===

Phoenix

Haven’t heard much out of the Suns about the draft, everyone’s preoccupied with whether or not they’ll move Amare or Shaquille. And if they do, that’ll have an impact on what they do here because this pick may be in play as well. But what the heck, we gotta give ‘em someone.

Earl Clark, Louisville

So, there you have it. For now.

Things could change significantly in the next week so this is for fun and frivolity only; don’t hold me to it. We’ll do another one just before the draft, after I’ve had a chance to really pick the brains of my boys and girls out there in gruntland.

Comments

[T i]

Doug, I agree that DeRozan is the most likely candidate for BC to choose with the 9th pick overall. After watching a bunch of tape of him, I think his ceiling is as high as Vince Carter or McGrady (for whatever that's worth) - ONLY if he improves his dribbling. The good news is that Calderon seems to handle the ball predominately which should make him still valuable as he develops. It just seemed to me that there aren't many plays that I could find of DeRozan where he dribbled more than twice before he got a bucket. Although I must say, in high school and college he really didn't need to because he is so damn athletic. An interesting prospect to say the least. With respect to his shot, it needs to get a bit better but he CAN shoot (he's just not a sniper). I'd just like to point out that players tend to get far more fatigued in the solo workouts.

One of the main reasons I prefer Evans, is simply because he is fantastic at dribbling the ball and I just wish the Raps had a SG they could give the ball to (instead of just always Jose) in the last 5 possessions of the game to create. What I don't like about Evans is his shooting mechanics - it's yet to be seen how good of a shooter he will be with NBA defenders on him.

On another note, I would be still satisfied with DeRozen as a prospect - he truly has a chance to be good in a few years (from my vantage point).

I also wouldn't discount Jordan Hill being selected by the Raptors if he fell to 9. I know his stock has slightly dropped in recent days but everything I've seen of the kid suggests to me he can help someone in year 1.

Draft should be interesting!

[Stephen]

Everything from DeRozan's profile seems to indicate that he's not the type of player who'd do well playing in a "foreign city" like Toronto. The Raps would be better off going with someone with a more level head like Henderson if your draft plays out, simply to avoid having a Steve Francis-esque head case around.

Blogger's note: That must be some profile for you to make that leap.

[RAJ]

Hey Doug,
There has been a lot of talk that this is considered a weak draft. When that is said does it mean that the players in it are not good or does it mean that NBA GMs will have a difficult time rating players?
By the way wasn't last years draft considered weak after the top two players (Rose and Beasley), and it turned out to be a pretty good draft class.

[Tim W.]

Ben F.: "Where do you see Brandon Jennings going? If he gets it together from the neck up, he could be special, no?"

How many times have I heard that before. People say it as if it's not difficult, but most headcases simply never get it. I could probably count the number of guys like Jennings who never got it together on one hand. Or if they did, it took years and a couple of different teams to do it. I'd be shocked if the team that ended up drafting Jenning ended up keeping him for more than a few years.

[Tim W.]

Stephen: "Everything from DeRozan's profile seems to indicate that he's not the type of player who'd do well playing in a "foreign city" like Toronto. The Raps would be better off going with someone with a more level head like Henderson if your draft plays out, simply to avoid having a Steve Francis-esque head case around."

I've never heard or read anything about DeRozan that would compare him to Steve Francis, or anyone like that at all. By all accounts, he is extremely coachable and a good kid. I've been impressed by interviews I seen of him where he seems very level-headed, looks the interviewer in the eye (which says a lot about a person, in my opinion), and has no red flags in his past.

I heard stories about Steve Francis before he was drafted that should have turned anyone off him.

What exactly has made you come to your conclusion?

[Tim W.]

Doug, you never seem to answer my questions, but hopefully you will this one. What exactly is the Raptors interest in Jrue Holiday? Do they see him as being able to play SG and back up at PG? Considering how much he struggled at SG at UCLA, I would be frightened of trying to turn him into one in the NBA. Especially since teams seem to be going away from undersized SG's after Cleveland got beat by Orlando's big guards in the playoffs.

Blogger's note: There are those in the organization who can see him playing alongside Jose in some situations. Of course, if there's a 6-10 two guard on the other team that's not going to happen but that's an oddity these days. They like his length and his defence.

[Kelsie]

Tim W

How many times have I heard that before. People say it as if it's not difficult, but most headcases simply never get it. I could probably count the number of guys like Jennings who never got it together on one hand. Or if they did, it took years and a couple of different teams to do it. I'd be shocked if the team that ended up drafting Jenning ended up keeping him for more than a few years.

What if he's not an issue and just an outspoken guy? Amare was considered to be a 'head case' coming out of high-school as well. There's also no guarantee that a safer pick will "get it" until they find an environment and system that suits them. Stephen Jackson is a 'head case' but we could use more players of his claibre on this Raptor squad. If you're talented and you fit in let's take the best player available.

For all of the talk about Derozan many scouts also claim that he is not motivated to be the best he can be and dissapears for stretches. For all of his athleticism he is NOT a slasher at this point of time in his development. He has a good mid-range game don't get me wrong, but no handles yet. If we pick him I hope he succeeds but I'd rather take a talented guy with some percevied issues than a guy who jumps out of the building but lacks the skill set we need on this team.

[Dan]

Assuming they draft a wing, is there any indication what the Raptors are planning to do about their backup PG spot? Do they think either Roko or AP would be up to it, or are they looking to fill the spot through free agency or a second draft pick?

Blogger's note: If they had to, I think they'd be quite okay with going into the season with Jose as the starter and perhaps as many as four guys -- even five -- who could fight for a backup job. Those guys being Roko, Douby, Parker and Delfino. And who knows if they can get anything out of Banks.
Is that perfect? No. But it is an imperfect world in which we live.

[petro]

Doug...

Henderson scored better than DeRozan in strength, speed, and agility during the draft combine. In the same breath, Henderson is almost two inches shorter in height... but has a longer reach and wingspan.

So, my question to you Doug... how much value do teams put into those results and measurements... and could any of those results/measurements be the final factor in picking between one player over another (especially since we are in an age where some players refuse to workout against their competition)???

Blogger's note: I don't think they would ever be the determining factor; just one of many items on a list

[Dave]

I read an earlier comment asking about using the 2nd pick (should we acquire one) on a second wing player. You said that it would likely be for a specific player they like, namely a PG. Let's say that James Johnson falls that far, would they take him if they already took a wing at #9 or would they only move for a pg?

Blogger's note: If they like Johnson, and some do, they might have an interest in adding him

[jimmie]

"Golden State has promised Monta that they will not draft a guard. Try and keep up."

Larry Riley was quoted yesterday or the day before as having met with Monta and discussing the draft, Monta has said he's happy to play whatever position the team wants him to play.

Try to keep up.

(in any case, the only sure thing at this time of year is that there's a lot of BS out there on both sides)

[Tim W.]

Kelsie,

Keep in mind that I don't think DeRozan is the perfect answer. I have questions about him and my issue with him is that if he never becomes a star, he doesn't have a lot of the fundamentals to fall back on that will ensure a long career. I've seen too many guys like Harold Miner, who had loads of athletic ability and lots of potential, never reach it and be out of the league in a few years. It's one reason I really like Gerald Henderson. While he doesn't have the potential of DeRozan, he's got a high basketball IQ and does a lot of the little things (things that the average fan doesn't notice). Plus, he's a lockdown defender, which I like.

As for Jennings, I've read too many stories about him questioning his mental makeup well before he started spouting off. I also simply don't see where he fits in on the Raptors and simply don't think he's talented enough to risk drafting him. He doesn't have the size to play SG so playing alongside Calderon is out except for a few minutes a game. Besides, both need the ball in their hands to be effective, so making either one a SG wouldn't help the team.

And while I'd like Stephen Jackson NOW, there's a reason he was on four teams in his first five years. Guys like him bounce around because teams like the ability, but get tired quickly of the other aspects.

And while a guy like Stephen Jackson finally got it together, a guy who was very similar to Jennings when he came into the league hasn't fared as well. Stephon Marbury had the talent to become one of the best PG's of all time, but he ended up becoming a cautionary tale.

Quite frankly, I don't think there is enough difference in talent between Holiday, Flynn, Jennings, DeRozan and Henderson to go with a PG when there's a SG available. If Rubio became available, then he's worth taking, but I don't see there being enough of a talent difference to risk taking a PG who will end up being a backup when there's such a high need for a SG.

[Kelsie]

Tim W

I agree with some of your points and Harold Miner was a good example to use. My concern is are we reaching to acquire that 2 guard? My only concerns with Henderson are his size and his ability to create but he would be better than anything we have at the 2 guard defensively right now without a doubt.

I just hope that going into next year we actually have some guys who can create and get to the rim cause I'm tired at watching the jump shooting every possession.

And at the 9 spot we're not guaranteed a great player so my thing with Jennings was using him in that same TJ/Calderon rotation that worked for the past few years before we traded TJ, but we'll see. Let's hope BC has this thing figured out from his end though

[saatuk]

DeRozan, eh? I hope no-one is expecting much from him in the short term. He had a lot of difficulty adjusting to the college game and didn't even become a useful player until near the end of the season. (in Nov-Dec he was invisible). He never became a star - highly unusual for a one-and-done. I don't claim to be a good judge of potential, but I saw a lot of him last season and I sure hope the Raptors choose someone else!

[Jeremy]

John Hollinger, and his Draft Rater, are warning against Demar DeRozan. His system allegedly atomizes draftees into a bunch of statistics which together, based on passed experience, infer how the current cohort will do. Ty Lawson is ranked #1, DeRozan #54. This is kind of funny given all the nostalgic Raptor fans now gushing over DeRozan as VC's second coming. Does this swing the vote elsewhere? Doug, how much weight do you give Hollinger's Draft Decider, er Rater?

Blogger's note: Personally? I read it with bemusement. "Swing the vote?" Not in a kabillion years.

[Tim W.]

Kelsie,

I understand your point, and I do agree that reaching to grab a position you need instead of grabbing the best player available is not usually a good idea, but I don't think that's the case here. I don't think there is much different in talent between the guy expected to go 5th and the guy expected to go 10th. Is Brandon Jennings going to be a better pro than, say Gerald Henderson? Personally, I don't think so. I think Henderson is going to have a solid, if not necessarily spectacular, career and end up being the type of guy you want on a championship team.

DeRozan's career will depend very much on how well he is coached and how his team does early. He could become an All-Star or learn bad habits by being on a bad team and be bounced out of the league after four or five years. He's much more of a blank slate than others projected to go in the lottery.

Jennings certainly has talent, but that's a small part to success in the NBA. Especially at the PG position. It's the difference between Steve Nash and Steve Francis. Francis had way more skills and athletic ability than Nash, but Nash was a winner. Jennings hasn't shown that.

I think you also are misremembering those great `years' with Ford and Calderon sharing the PG duties. Ford was with the Raptors for two seasons, only one of which was the combination successful mostly because Calderon was still growing as an NBA player and his skill didn't demand that he start. The next season, Ford got hurt and Calderon blossomed into a starting PG. When Ford came back, it quickly became evident that the combination was no longer working. If you want to get a good year or so, and then have things end badly, I'd suggest drafting a PG. I'd rather not set up a disaster.

[Mike]

Hey, Doug

GREAT BLOG!!!

Just read everyone's comments and that Treke Evans would be the guy the RAPTORS would want but, he will got to the TimberWolves. As for Demar.D he has the size and skill like Kobe Bryant(ESPN CHAD FORD)take that has it worth and also had comparison's like Vince Carter or Tracy McGrady.

[Mike]

Doug,
I read a article and it is about Demar DeRozan and what I read it says that he has no offensive creativity, ability to create own shot, defensive awareness and average basketball IQ.

Also, he often satisfied to go with the flow; does not look to dominate, plays hard, but rarely full throttle, not much of a passer or facilitator and needs to enhance range on his jumper; tends to fade away on 3PT attempts.

So does Demar DeRozan really that good??????????

GREAT BLOG!!!!!!!!

[Aaron]

Doug, thanks for the mock draft. I've been reading the draft chatter on a number of sites and a player sometimes mentioned in the same breath as the Rap's pick is Earl Clark. Now you haven't mentioned him as someone the team is looking at. Any word as to whether he's in the mix, or does having a 'Clark'on the roster conjure up too many memories of Keon? Tks.

Blogger's note: I have no idea about that "chatter" you talk about because I try to avoid a "number of sites" like they were toxic but no one I've spoken to around the Raptors has ever metioned his name.

[CB]

Doug, I was watching raptors TV, regarding the draft combine. And apparantly there was some potential draftee (sorry I forget his name), who came a week before to work out at Toronto. Raptors EMT had to saw off some medical equipment and apparantly came a mm away from severing an artery. Any truth?

Thanks

Blogger's note: Yeah, first workout, oft-reported. Sam Young, I believe it was. He's fine.

[yertu damkule]

re. Derozan...2 things:

1) played for Tim Floyd. 'Nuff said.
2) MVP of the PAC-10 tourney, outplayed Harden. Yes, small sample size, and yes, he had a slow start to the year...but for a freshman, that's pretty impressive.

Given that - I'm not in favour of picking him at the 9 (if he's even available at that spot), simply because, as has been mentioned, outside of the first few picks, everyone else is pretty much on the same level. So, trading the 9 for a lower pick & a 2nd rounder, while buying a pick in the mid-teens, makes the most sense (and, if they're able to jetison Banks in the process, that's a bonus...and a miracle).

With the mid-teens pick (purchased), they could basically target just the best available guy, regardless of position (Lawson, Jennings, Clark, Johnson, Henderson, Blair, etc.). With the acquired 1st rounder, they could look to shore up specific holes, with a guy like Hansbrough, or Young, or Brown). With the 2nd rounder, they could look at a guy to stash overseas, or fill a specific need, or use as part of a trade. The key is to give themselves as many options as possible.

Blogger's note: By your own assessment, if everyone's even in that middle group, why would teams want to trade up to take a guy who'll cost them more in salary?

[Tim W.]

yertu damkule: "Given that - I'm not in favour of picking him at the 9 (if he's even available at that spot), simply because, as has been mentioned, outside of the first few picks, everyone else is pretty much on the same level. So, trading the 9 for a lower pick & a 2nd rounder, while buying a pick in the mid-teens, makes the most sense (and, if they're able to jetison Banks in the process, that's a bonus...and a miracle)."

I really don't think everyone outside of the top picks is on the same level. I said that people projected going between 5 and 10 are pretty much at the same level, but outside of that, and especially the lottery, I'd be surprised if more than one or two make an impact. This is not a strong draft, and it is not deep at all. That's not to say there won't be some good players taken, but this is most definitely a weak draft. Trading down would be a recipe for disaster. The chance of finding someone good is miniscule, and drafting players is such a crapshoot anyway, why decrease your chances of being successful? That doesn't make sense.

[aditya]

just saw this blog entry right now,

jennings is going in the top 8, guaranteed....or else i owe u (fill in the blanks)

Blogger's note: Save this for Friday morning, please