Of trades and talks and a glorious baseball victory

Wow, so much for a slow day, eh? Bryan gives us a bit of news, two big deals and, yes, the Yankees win!!!!!!

Red-letter day all around.

And just sets us up for a big one today, too, although I imagine it’ll be quiet on the Raptors front. Every indication yesterday was that they have nothing going for an extra pick, no desire to move up and will remain at No. 9. But, as we all know, things can change in a hurry and as soon as I get back from having the chiropractor try to get this wonky spine in order, it’ll be time to hit the phones and see what’s up.

Til then …

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AP FILE PHOTO

Raps took a second look at DeMar DeRozan.

The news that they had two guys back for second visits – well, Johnson was in yesterday, I hear Holiday may not be in until today – was somewhat eyebrow-raising, no?

It’s not entirely unusual, plenty of teams have guys in for second looks that are more about meetings and chats than actual work on the court, but it does send a little bit of a signal.

So, too, then will this news:

They did have a second session with DeRozan, too, I was told. Not here – they had to travel to see him – but they did get a look outside of the one they had at the Air Canada Centre last week.

What’s it all mean?

Well, reading the tea leaves after a handful of conversations, I think if some held a gun to my head and told me I had to rank the Gang of Five, it would look like this:

Holiday

DeRozan

Johnson

Flynn

Henderson

There’d be a big gap between Johnson and Flynn and I think it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility to flop DeRozan and Johnson, either. Let’s say they’re tied.

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We’re all about firsts here in this little corner of the interweb, aren’t we? First with news, first with snark, first with a whole bunch of things.

Well, how about a first link to a Maclean’s piece? This one is very, very good and should be read by all. Of particular interest would be the part where he talks about team play and team success being the true measure of a champion.

Kids who play baseball or soccer or even the pucks need to read that and digest it; their parents and coaches need to read it and take it to heart.

End of sermon.

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Man, Sam’s gonna love coaching those kids in Minnesota, isn’t he?

(That’s if it happens and I hope it does).

But here’s the question in light of this reported transaction:

If the Timberwolves do indeed keep the Nos. 5 and 6 picks, who do they take with each?

Not because of talent, but because of payday. The fifth pick’s salary is about $3 million next year, about $400,000 or so more than the money they’ll have to pay No. 6 under the rookie salary scale.

How do you decide who to reward?

It was suggested to me by a rather smart soul last night that you pay the guy who like the best the least, taking him at No. 6 and taking more of a “project” at No. 5.

Why?

Easy. When it comes time to make qualifying offers in a few years, you could be getting a better player cheaper.

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Oh yeah, another mock draft tomorrow morning, okay?

And here’s the schedule for these parts the rest of the week.

After a meeting of some of the great minds of The Star (that’d be Spencer and I sitting around at my desk for 10 minutes yesterday morning) we’ve come up with this: A live bloggy thingy tomorrow night from about 7 through the lottery portion of the draft (I’m going to go write after that for the web and then the paper) and then one of those live chats on Friday, sometime around noon, to digest the whole shebang. Not sure of that time exactly because it’ll depend on when the draft pick’s going to do a media session but we’re shooting for right around lunch.

Now, you can relax and plan your next couple of days.

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Right, the trade.

The Milwaukee-San Antonio-Detroit trade, that is.

If I had to declare a winner, it’s probably San Antonio although they gutted their front court and unless Matt Bonner all of a sudden becomes a dominant rebounder or they have someone in mind as a free agent or draft pick, they are uber-thin up front.

Jefferson’s insurance if Manu stays hurt and maybe now they even look more seriously at moving Ginobili, although I’d be surprised at that.

Milwaukee’s now got some money in the future to pay Charlie or Ramon Sessions this summer and Detroit gets more savings to make a run at either Ben Gordon or Drew Gooden or both.

Of note to Toronto:

The Spurs are now not likely to be players – because of money – in the Chris Bosh sweepstakes next summer which is sort of big because I always thought the Spurs would have been a good fit if Bosh wants to leave.

And we don’t know that he does so don’t get all crazy on me.

Oh, and why didn’t the Raptors “get” Richard Jefferson? Simple. They didn’t have enough expiring contracts to make up his salary. Was never a chance, was never going to happen, it’s not worth thinking about.

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My man Tom, a frequent contributor here, wonders this yesterday:

Q: What is the upside of showing your cards before the draft. While most media/GMs/fans would have a very good guess at this list, what’s the upside of communicating it publicly?”

A: No question there’s a level of misdirection in some comments. Teams might talk up a guy they sort of like knowing a team right above them is on the fence about him, hoping the other team takes him so the guy the first team really, really likes falls a notch.

But it’s also to send a message to agents and players that, yeah, there is some legitimate interest so they can go to other teams coveting them and say, ‘hey, all things considered, I’d rather go to Toronto so if you don’t want an unhappy camper, leave me alone.”

And some of it’s just common sense.

Everyone and their brother could discern which five guys would be on a Raptors list, for instance. Bryan didn’t break and big news by giving us those names.

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Hey, How ‘Bout Them Yankees! Not, the sorry lot that was shut out again by Atlanta last night, the Mighty Yankees of the Mississauga North peewee house league, who recorded another impressive victory last night.

Think we had like 21 runs in six innings of work.

As my Hitting Consultant M. Nori mentioned the other night, it’s all about squishing bugs and hitting line drives up the middle.

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Comments

[Ben]

Hey Doug,

Not to get back into the Jefferson thing, but aren't their current contracts still 'their own' until July 1, meaning Marion could have be included (or could be included in transactions before then in exchange for a longer contract)?

Thanks for the great coverage and looking forward to the draft blog.

Blogger's note: Players with contracts fully expiring on July 1 can't be dealt; Bowen and Oberto both had contracts that were partially guaranteed for next season.
So Marion couldn't have been dealt.

[Wallace]

Thanks for all the great insights and updates...as usual. If the Raps pass on Johnson or DeRozen to take Holiday, is that an indication that they feel confident in keeping Marion? And do you think that at 6-3, Holiday can be their starting off guard?

Blogger's note: They think they could play Holiday and Jose at the same time; not sure if it's as two starters at the outset

[Jason F.]

Doug, thanks for the Maclean's link. As a big fan I'm sure you'll appreciate this story. I was at the NBA All-Star game a few years ago in San Antonio. On the Monday we decided to play a round at a local course before heading back home. I had a habit (still do) of leaving my wedge near the green when putting... only to realize it on the next hole. Just when it dawned on me that I needed my missing wedge, up from behind a bunker comes this giant of a man holding my wedge -- Bill Russell. He hands it to me, I feel like an idiot, I thank him... and then thank God for my bad habit.

Blogger's note: I hope you were playing at La Cantera

[petert]

Doug, a little speculation here: let's say Holiday is the Raptors pick. And let's say he does pan out. Let's also say that he's a better fit at the point than at shooting guard. Assuming all of the above (all of which Colangelo must be aware of), does that make Jose a trading piece (which Jose would also be aware of)? Yes, I know that it may take Holiday a little while, but the distant possiblity is there (and even closer than that if Holiday's game works better in the pros than at UCLA where Ben Howland runs things tightly). It just seems interesting to me that if they rank him that highly, they're implicitly admitting something about their point guard situation.

[Matty-Pix]

Do you see any spin-off from the TWolves trade, where now with a FOURTH 1st rounder, #18 may be more attainable for BC.

Blogger's note: I refer you back to what Bryan said yesterday about wondering about the value of adding a second pick with a guaranteed deal. So, whether or not it's more available doesn't really matter.

[Kelsie]

Hey Doug,

So if you had to rank it you would put Holliday at the top of the prospect list for potential Raptors to be taken tomorrow.

Is this based on feedback your getting from team sources, your take on these players abilities, or just a hunch?

I hope they take Johnson. I'm not as high on DeRozan or Holliday as I feel they would have difficulties starting, whereas I think Johnson could make an immediate impact in the starting line-up.

While the brass has communicated that they think any of these guys could make a contribution next year do you think the braintrust believes all of these potential draftees could start for our team next year?

Blogger's note: As it says, they're ranked after a handful of conversations with people. I would probably do DeRozan and Johnson tied, Holiday, Flynn, Henderson

[Athena]

Now you put Holiday ahead of DeRozan ?

Blogger's note: I don't. They do.

[Dallas]

Hi Doug,

So you figure the Raps first choice would a pg?

Thanks

Blogger's note: I think if Holiday is there, they will take him. They see him as a combo guard they could play at the same time as Calderon. That said, I'm not sure it's the right pick but I'm equally not sure if he'll be there.

[Eric]

"Oh, and why didn’t the Raptors “get” Richard Jefferson? Simple. They didn’t have enough expiring contracts to make up his salary. Was never a chance, was never going to happen, it’s not worth thinking about. "

Actually, they did Dougee (how soon you forget!)- they had a little asset named Jermaine O'Neal just four months ago who had a contract upwards of $20M that was coming off the books at the same time as Bowen, Oberto, etc. And there were plenty of us who said, "Why don't you WAIT until the summer to deal this guy- when he becomes an attractive commodity in advance of the terrific 2010 FA Agent season?"

And you said, "No sir. Deal him now. Give up an all-important first-rounder in the process." Something like that, anyway. :)

The Raptors could have been huge players this summer (or next deadline) if they had decided to hold onto JO in a season where it was clear that he was not necessarily the main problem. For proof, the Spurs just got Jefferson without losing a first-rounder. The Raptors lost a 1st rder (a conditional, no less!) for three months of Shawn Marion- who may now lock them into a 4 or 5 year extension to boot...... before they even know what they're getting.

That's what fans were worried about at the time. You might have called them paranoid or senile. Unfortunately, it appears they may have (yet again) demonstrated more wisdom than yourself, Mr Smith.

And PS: As you know, the Wolves traded Foye AND Miller for #5 when you implied they weren't in the market for another pick at all because they already had 3. From now on, may we call you Raps Apologist #1. You spend all your time justifying why the Raptors can't (or won't- or shouldn't) do anything to change this sorry roster. It's interesting..... Like you're playing Devil's Advocate. Infuriating, too.

[Kevin]

Hi Doug,

A few rambling thoughts this morning after reading your blog.
How much does Tim Duncan have in the tank? I think he and Bosh could be scary good together if his skills don't decline.
Thanks for the link to the Bill Russell interview. He has an odd mix of humility and accomplishment that we don't see enough in sports. Same philosophy as Al Davis but with an entirely different approach of getting there.

[Dan]

It's a little interesting that the 2 guys at the top of our list had awful seasons in college last year...makes me nervous about taking either

Neither Derozan or Holiday looked anything remotely like a top-10 prospect this year (Derozan had a good last 6 weeks), and it's pretty tough to argue with that. If Colangelo takes either one, he better be sure about the upside.

Personally, I like Flynn or Henderson. NBA ready, and we need that now.

[Damian]

Doug, I know you're all for balance and freedom of speech, blah blah blah, but do you really have to post the blatantly obnoxious and patronizing comments? Trolls do nothing to add to the dialogue...

[dave]

Hi and thanks. 2questions- With the usefullness of partial guarantee do you see them becoming more common? At what price does Bruce B become worthwhile?

Blogger's note: Partial guarantees have existed for final years of deals for years, can't see that changing. Bowen? I'm not sure, a veteran minimum salary for a legitimate contender maybe. He'd probably look good in Boston

[Terry Day]

Doug,

Can you help me with why Flynn would make the list of 5? I liked him as a player at Syracuse, but he does not seem to fit any area the raptors really need. He also does not fit the description of the best player on the board at #9. As a Raptor fan it is a bit frustrating to see us pick a backup PG when they have no wings. Thanks

Terry

[SteveG]

I'm really not sure why Eric continues to show up and read this blog? All he does is critisize it, and frankly, it's getting childish.

The word now is that the Wolves acquired #5 in order to package it with other picks to try and get #2 and take Rubio.

Doug, don't you see Jennings flourishing in GS, or NY?
Wouldn't it make sense for one of those teams (GS maybe) to trade down to the mid-teens to take him/pay him less money and get something back in return?

Blogger's note: Jennings is the enigma, can't shoot very well; quite, um, full of himself and his abilities. Not sure how he'd fit where but he's got some skill

[cummin14]

Hey Eric,

Sean Marion is probably better than many of the wings in the draft now. So we did get something. A better fit. In fact, Marion's pretty comparable to Jefferson. And will probably cost much less.

And leave Doug alone, he's doing a good job.

Also, Doug, is Jrue Holliday a poor man's Jason Terry?

Blogger's note: Not sure about that comparison but it's probably not far off.

[chris]

I sure hope they don't have them ranked as you do, Doug. Holiday does nothing to shore up our weaknesses (athleticism, penetration, someone who can play the 2 or 3). He was absolutely horrible as a 2 guard last year. Maybe he's a future point guard in the mould of an Alvin Williams or Chauncey Billups.....but he's NOT a 2 guard.

[Chris]

I know it was "they" who said this: Holiday over DeRozan. But what does Holiday have that DD does not.

I just don't see it. Personally, i think it is puffing smokescreens by Mr. BC.

[T i]

Doug, I can't help but feel that Holiday at the top of their list is a smoke-screen. Just to think that a pg that averaged less than 10PPG in college is in the top 10 of a draft is the kind of proof to the notion that this is an incredibly thin draft.

I still think their guy is DeRozen, Hill (if available) or Johnson. I hope they pic DeRozen for the sole reason that I believe in thin drafts, it is worth taking a homerun swing at a prospect with great upside. Based on the 82games.com website research, the 9th pick has a 30% chance of being a star. In a thin draft, I think it is worth taking a 1 in 3 chance on a future star instead of taking a guy like Holliday who not only do I think doesn't have nearly as much upside, but was just as unproven in college (I could argue that DeRozen DID look REALLY good the last 8-12 games or so however).

P.S. To that dude Eric, you have got to be the most annoying reader to comment on this blog site. Who exactly, are you trying to impress? Are you trying to take Doug's job or something ? Good luck buddy.. Your posts are so ignorant that I don't even have to read through your whole post to know you wrote it - have a cookie already - ok man and just give it up already!

End of Rant.

[b]

DeRozan didn't have an awful season. He had an inconsistent season. He was awful until February or so, then he played extremely well through the Pac-10 tournament and Sweet 16. He pretty much carried that team to their best season in a long time.

Jrue Holiday, I'm a little more nervous about because he keeps saying in post-workout interviews that he was struggling because he did not enjoy playing off the ball. Why would you draft someone who keeps saying his talents would be marginalized at SG, then plan to play him at that position?

I don't think this team necessarily needs NBA ready. We need someone who can make the biggest impact overall in the future. Even with the most NBA ready guy, this roster is thin in talent as it is and would not go further than 1st round. They have to swing for the fences on this one.

[ad]

Holiday averaged 8 ppg in college. That does not sound like a great pro prospect to me. Plus point guard is not the biggest need on the roster. I would much rather see them take Derozan who has more potential and is more of a pure 2.

[Henry]

Looks like the Knicks just bought another pick. Too bad the Raptors can't afford to be more active, given how poor MLSE is.

BC strikes me as someone who very seldom indicates what his real intentions are, which makes this years honesty somewhat suspicious. Most of his moves tend to come out of the blue.

[Brian]

Here's my 2 cents on my preference on the Raptors-5:

1) DeRozan

2) Johnson

3) Holiday (I think he might be too short to be an effective SG)

4) Henderson

5) Flynn (The prospect of listening to the "trade Jose" rants a la TJ vs Jose is more than I can bear. 2 good players at one position is more than Raps fans can endure).

[Wallace]

I agree with b. Holiday has told anybody who asks, that he is a PG...a floor general...a team captain. If BC takes him at #9 he will be revisiting the awful competing point guard situation a la TJ Ford enjoyed by all. It might be different if he agreed to be a 2 guard...but he clearly doesn't! DeRozen or Johnson is the logical pick here.

[chris]

Further to B's point.....derozan was one of the best performing players in the country in the pac-10 tournament. The guy carried his team....and was MVP of the Pac-10. As a rookie.

Holiday has potential, but it is so far TOTALLY unrealized and at a position where he is likely 3rd on the depth chart for us.