This, that and the other things

Big day yesterday, no?

Workout in the morning, new guy in the afternoon, qualifying offer in the evening.

Gotta love the off-season.

Anyway, we’re a week and a day out from the draft, a couple of weeks away from the start of free agency and I’ve got a feeling things are going to get busier before they get quieter.

And then, maybe, we can have summer?

Until then …

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I’ve been through enough of these new guy media sessions – with the “all I want to do is come in and help” chatter with a couple of “yeah, it’s a good team, we’re going to do well” comments thrown in along with an “it all starts on the defensive end” to end the cliché-fest – that my eyes generally glaze over the minute the guy starts talking.

But there was something about Reggie Evans that seemed different.

When the guy started talking, you believed him; he really doesn’t give a crap about anything other than doing his job and doing it well and his job is, simply, the dirty work.

And you people are going to love him.

Oh, and all this stuff that he’s Charles Oakley?

“That’s a first. I’ve got a lot of respect for his game, Charles Oakley was real good. I looked at him a lot playing, especially in the playoffs … Comparison wise? I don’t know because he had a jumper, he could shoot a 17-foot jumper, 15-17 feet, so you couldn’t really leave Oakley open so I can’t really compare.”

THE CANADIAN PRESS

Delfino offer could be the start of a busy stretch for the Raptors.

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What do we make of this news that the Raptors have extended a qualifying offer to Carlos Delfino?

No news there.

Given what their options were – renounce everyone, get space, hope to get a significant free agent – deciding to kind of stay the course makes by far the most sense to me.

It doesn’t mean that they are going to do nothing, though.

The option still exists to sign-and-trade Shawn Marion and they will have the mid-level exception to offer someone. And judging by the economic climate out there and the number of teams with cap space, I think there are going to be some bargains to be had.

And, just from listening to people around the gym and in private conversations I’ve had with people tuned in, I have no doubt that Bryan’s got a few things simmering.

Now, whether any of them get pulled off or not, I can’t tell you.

But the sense I’m getting from talking to people is that there is going to be more action than you’d think in the next month or so.

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So, DeMar DeRozan is gracing the Raptors with his presence today – to work out on his own.

Big whoop.

I bet he looks great making shots against no defenders and I’m pretty sure he kicks the crap out of the pylons and chairs in one-on-ones.

Yawn.

As one Raptor type said to me the other day: “I don’t know what we’re going to see that we didn’t see in Chicago.”

I guess the chance to talk to him over dinner or lunch and a chance for the coaches to get a shot at him on the court is something. But it’s not a lot.

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As we were standing on the baseline of the practice gym yesterday watching the end of Gerald Henderson and some other inconsequential guys work out, who comes wandering in but Patrick O’Bryant and Quincy Douby.

And after we got done chatting with Henderson – and if I had my druthers they’d draft him just because he’s a good interview – down the other end of the floor, what do we see but Marc Iavaroni, Alex English, Alvin Williams, Eric Hughes and Micah Nori putting them through their paces.

The best drill?

Iavaroni and English, with those big arm pads on you see worn by dog trainers or lion tamers, smacking the hell out of O’Bryant as the rail-thin centre took entry passes in the post.

Toughness is not an attribute usually associated with Patrick; if the Raptors can instill some maybe he becomes something more than a 13th man on a 15-man roster.

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So why like the Henderson kid so much?

Well, here’s one: We asked him about his “stock” and where he might fit in this draft:

“Stock? It’s a mythical thing. It’s not something real. That’s how I look at it. You just prepare for each workout and try your hardest. You see what happens after.

“Really, when it comes down to it, it’s about how each team feels about you, not how people are talking about you or what kind of player people will think you will be or stuff like that.”

I like that kind of answer; sort of goes to how I feel about this whole draft process.

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Jim Kelly on the vagaries of this draft, which is more complicated to figure out than any I can remember for a long time:

“There’s some movement up there. I think there are some picks up there for sale. Rumours are rumours but you hear Washington has a very young team, they might decide, like they have done in the past, to do something else with their pick. If somebody else moves into that slot, you have no idea what they would want in the draft.

"I do think it’s the type of draft where there are some movement possibilities up in the top and spots away from us. You might have a course where you think you know where everyone is and then on draft day, a complete surprise is there.”

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Another interested observer at the workout yesterday, a familiar face that should make fans of Canada’s national basketball programs feel pretty good.

Steve Konchalski’s in town as part of his gig on that solid Council of Elders thing Wayne Parrish has put together to assist the national team programs and Steve’s going to be hanging around Greg Francis and the Under-19 team that starts work Saturday in preparation for next month’s world championships in New Zealand.

Steve’s going to travel to the tournament with the team as some kind of adviser, which can do nothing but help Francis and his assistant Peter Guarasci.

Comments

[Erc]

LeeZ, In the absense of Big D, I'll comment on your comment. You remember Delfino pretty much the way I do. Good defense (at least for a Toronto wing), good but streaky offense and much more willingness to drive to the basket than your average, or even exceptional, Raptor.
I still think he could double as a very good #3 point guard or even back-up, in a pinch. I'd much rather see him there than Roko, who is a long, long term project.
As long as Delfino replaces AP and works with the second unit, he is an up-grade. Toronto is not moving forward if he starts.
Keep thinking for yourself. There's hope for you yet.

[rob]

Hi Doug,
1-I listened to BC's interview this morning on the FAN 590. and he mentioned that Delfino is a guy he was willing to pay luxury tax to keep him in the past. I m not entirely sure thta I interpreted this right, but while Delfino is a good player I don't see him as a guy worth paying tax for, did I hear that wrong or does BC thinks that highly of Delfino's game.
2-On a different note, Bryan said that Jordan Hill is a guy he would be very interested in drafting if he falls to 9 (but he was confident that he will be selected before the ninth pick)... now hypothetically speaking if the Knicks do pass on him and he falls to the raps, what does that mean for guys like Humphries and Nesterovic? i mean it is good to have a lot of big bodies but not a whole roster of them.

Thanx again for your insights... and kudos on a wonderful year, can't wait to see how you are going to top it off next season.

[Stephen]

This morning on FAN 590 - Bryan listed 6 players that he is looking at picking in the 9 hole. I don't pay much attention to the draft talk, but two PGs, two SGs, one SF, and one player that he said he wouldn't be taking based on his medical history, psycoligaical testing, but then at the very end threw his name in there as a possibility - so not sure about that. Wish I could be more helpful. It was between 7:20 and 7:35 this morning that he was on.

[Nick]

I know you are shying away from revealing your picks, but surely you should do a D.Smith mock draft at some point soon???

Blogger's note: Soon, yes. Perhaps tomorrow, no later than Friday for a first one. Depends on how many scouts and others I can reach today

[Chris]

Doug,

Is the qualifying offer to Delfino a take it or leave it kind of thing, or can it (will it) be negotiated upward? Will it eventually cost more to bring Delfino back?

Thanks!

Blogger's note: It's merely a bookkeeping exercise to retain rights to match any offer; it has nothing to do with what he'll eventually earn. That number will be higher

[Marc (Brampton)]

Doug,
Do you know approximate how much the Bi-annual Exception will be this year? Do you think the Raptors will use it as well as the mid-level exception?

Blogger's note: Somewhere in the $2 million neighbourhood and, yes, the Raptors have it available.

[Damian]

1-8 pick....

Griffin
Harden
Rubio
Thabeet
Curry
Evans
Hill
Holiday

Who would you pick at 9?

Blogger's note: Probably DeRozan

[joe]

so if derosen is available at 9, do you pick him up? or see who else is on the board? it seems like you're not very high on the kid.

Blogger's note: I'm not very high on kids who shun competition, no. And it would depend on who's there, yeah.

[Tim W.]

Alex: "Doug, if it is true that Washington is shopping their draft pick, who do you think is on teh short list of teams seriously interested in moving into that spot?"

This is just my opinion, but I would think the teams most likely to trade for Washington's pick would be Dallas (who have traded with Washington in the past, including for their lottery pick, and are apparently looking to trade up), Phoenix (who is probably looking to start rebuilding and might be busy this summer) and the Knicks (who might want to move up a few places in order to grab the PG they want).

[Johnny L.]

Howdy Doug ... Do you think that Reggie Evans rebounding #s may be slightly inflated due to the fact that he is rarely gaurded (if teams are going to double when he's on the floor .. I imagine its his man that is doubling?), therefore a little harder to pick up and box out?

Blogger's note: No.

[Tim W.]

Eric: "3 options: 1) Risk losing Chris Bosh for nothing, 2) Trade him for young talent, 3) Re-sign him to a Vernon Wells like deal. Which one would you pick?!?!?! Maybe it's time for him to go. "

Well, your question is extremely loaded. Maybe I can phrase it another way...

1) Wait and try to re-sign him, which, at worse, might result in him leaving and the Raptors around $20 million worth of cap space to use either signing a free agent or taking on more salary in a trade, 2) Trade Bosh for 50 cents on the dollar since any team willing to trade for him would know they might only get him for one season.

Now I don't follow baseball, so your Vernon Wells comment means nothing to me, but I do know that baseball has no salary cap and players can be signed for any amount the teams wants, which is not true in the NBA. I mean, it's not like Bosh will be making that much more than guys like Pau Gasol, Rashard Lewis, Kenyon Martin, Elton Brand, Andre Kirilenko or even, most likely, Carlos Boozer, when he becomes a free agent this summer. It seems to me, all those teams made the playoffs (three making it to the Conference FInals) and all were either under or close to the luxury tax threshold. It's not as if re-signing Bosh to a maximum contract is going to make it that much more difficult for Colangelo to turn the Raptors into a contender. Would I like for him to sign for less? Sure, but I don't see much criticism about Miami who many think are going to offer him a max contract.

[Tony]

Love Reggie's comment about slackers, "i,m going to voice my opinion in games and practices" "if you want to slack just go sit down over there or go home or something". Raptors soft no more!

[Michael]

Hi Doug, How come T.Evans is not in the short list that BC likes to get for the 9th spot? Is it just because he hasn't got a workout yet? Or they don't have any interest on him?

Blogger's note: They have some interest but they feel he'll most likely be gone

[jimmie]

I honestly can't see the top 8 NOT including Griffin, Rubio, Thabeet, Harden, and Curry. So if BC sticks at #9 (doesn't trade up), then think Toronto will likely have a shot at one of DeRozan, Ty Evans, or Holliday, and I think they'll take on of those guys. I'd personally be happy with any of the them, but my list would be 1. Evans, 2. DeRozan, and 3. Holiday.

I expect Curry to go anywhere from 3 to 8, but if he somehow fell to 9, that would be an easy pick. I really don't see Colangelo risking on a guy like Blair or Hill, who play a position that's pretty full at this point, and I'm not sold on Flynn unless we move some meat for SG/SF and use the pick to draft Calderon's backup. Holiday at least has some size that could allow him to play SG. Henderson is not in my top 10, but if the three guys mentioned above are all gone, then he would be my pick over risky bets like Clark or Johnson.

If the roster remains relatively status-quo heading into the draft, I'd also really like to see a second pick acquired, to go after a guy like Sam Young, Jeff Teague, or Terrence Williams.

This draft is actually starting to take on some level of certainty given team needs and draft positions; of course, trades that change those team needs could throw everything back into the murk.

Blogger's note: You've only listed five players for eight spots so to suggest they'd have a choice of those three is a stretch, to say the least.

[Paul M.]

Wait a second, Doug. So, if Griffin, Harden, Rubio, Thabeet, Curry, Evans, Hill, and Holiday are all gone (and from what the "experts" are saying, they seem to be the consensus top 8) you "probably" take Derozen at 9? You keep mentioning you're high on Henderson (and not so much on Derozen). Why not Henderson at 9? What do you see are Henderson's negatives? I haven't seen Derozen enough, but from what I've seen of Henderson, he seems to have a very suspect jumper and may be an undersized slasher vis a vis NBA players.

Blogger's note: Yes, probably. But there's still a week to go. I'm high on Henderson because I saw him more and he's a better interview; scouts and people I trust like DeRozan's game a lot.
DeRozan's a better athlete, not as a good a shooter.
But I also need to look closer at the Johnson kid from Wake, who some people in Toronto like a lot.
Thankfully, no decision has to be made until a week Thursday.

[jason]

doug you have the greatest job in the world, i wish i could talk about the draft and the finals for work. cudos

[T i]

P.S. for the person who commented about whether DeRozan just didn't like Canada or if it was his agent.. he just had his private (solo) workout today at the ACC... check out the 3 vids on Raptors.com.. he himself admitted that he didn't know much about the city and he thought it looks great almost like a mini-NYC... On another note, I think it's safe to say his agent made the decision for the solo workout (other guys in the draft have done the same)... usually it's to protect their client from having any workouts where they might be overshadowed by someone else who was "projected" to go later... that is not to say that he isn't confident that he is better than most of them, it's just that these AGENTS are anal - every selection their client's drop, the less money both of them make... it sucks but it's life (the ridiculous process of these agents having so much control).

[jimmie]

Doug, I said I believe they'd have a shot at "one of those three" at #9, not their choice of all 3. If ANY of DeRozan/Evans/Holiday are available, my point is that Toronto would likely (and should likely, IMO) take the one that is there that they like the most.

I doubt Evans will be there at 9 given the hype he's been getting, but of course that could all be hype DeRozan, Holiday, etc. could go ahead of him. But I still think one of those 3 will be there at 9.

If you want my personal list of who I think will go in the top 8 spots -- in some order -- before Toronto picks: Griffin, Rubio, Curry, Harden, Evans, Thabeet, Hill, Flynn.

[WA]

To those people who think you should trade Bosh... I can see your point but I can also see Doug's point of sticking out the season. At least if Bosh opts out, we can always do a sign-and-trade since he'll still get a fatter contract coming from the Raptors brass as a Bird FA than any other team.

If you MUST MUST trade him before or during the draft, the ONLY trade I can see being worth it is this one:

Bosh, 9th pick and POB (or Jawaii) to Washington for Butler, Haywood and the 5th pick. If this can't be done before the draft, then have Washington draft Curry or Harden with the 5th pick (assuming both are still available) and then let us draft a player that remains at the 9th pick on behalf of Washington and then make the deal.

Like I said, I am against trading Bosh but I'd say this is the only deal that works. Haywood's contract comes off the books at the end of the season, he'd be our starting center - and he adds toughness. Bargnani could then play the 4 (and not be yanked around too much from 5 to 3), and Butler would be our 3. You could then go after FA's with the mid-level and also sign-and-trade Marion to fill out that spot as I doubt Marion would want to be Butler's backup. Of course you could play big and have Butler at the 2 but I'm not sure that would do justice. A new player (not on our 2008-09 roster) would be our starting SG and Jose at the point.

As for cap ramifications, the trade pretty much equals itself out +/- 1 million dollars, and the cap itself will be about $54 million as Doug said, whereas luxury tax level will be $70-72 million. That leaves about $16-18 million cushion in between.

As it stands now (before cap holds) our team salary is $45 million approximately (this would roughly be the same after the trade excluding rookie scale contracts). Add the mid-level (since the cap holds make us over the cap) and that's $5.5 million, add Marion at $8 million a year and team salary is at $58.5 million. Now add Joey & Delfino at their qualifying offers (rounded up to the nearest million) and that's another $7 million. Add the rookie scale contract for a top 10 pick and that's another $3 million putting us up to $68.5 million.

You have a roster of either of the following: Bosh, Jose, Bargs, Evans, Banks, Hump, Ukic, Jawaii, Delfino, Joey, maybe POB, mid-level player(s), rookie, Marion (or replacement) - that's 14 players before you even think of Rasho; or Butler, Haywood, Bargs, Jose, Evans, Banks, Hump, Ukic, Delfino, Joey, Jawaii (if not included in trade), mid-level player, rookie, Marion (or replacement) - that's also 14 players.

No matter how you look at it, next year we'll be in very decent shape and under the tax level.

Doug, I know you hate hypotheticism (yes, that's my new word) but I hope you had fun reading a what if from the perspective of a reasonable person who has analyzed the roster and summer-moves possibilities as much as you have.

[Leroy]

Hi Doug, this is not about pick number 9. I know Raps don't have any 2nd round picks. Do you think Raps will trade for a late first round or early 2nd round pick? T-wolves has 3 picks in the first round, do you think Raps will get one from them and draft Omri Casspi?

Omri Casspi seems a fit to Toronto, international player and he is a wing player.

[chris]

Doug - you're missing one big option for the raptors....renounce everyone, and use that cap space to make trades. Its not like we'd be limited to the free agents (hedo and marvin).

ALso if we sign someone with the MLE our ability to react with a free agent signing if BOsh does leave in 2010 is limited. It would really suck if he leaves and we don't have his cap space to use on other acquisitions.

Finally, Derozan working out on his own isn't THAT bad....the coaches get to see how he takes direction, how hard he tries in drills, etc etc. I think working out against scrubs (which is what most of them do, with few top prospects going against each other) isn't likely that helpful either.

[Boko]

If the Raptors pick DeRozan, it'll probably turn out to be the biggest mistake they've ever made. His stats show that he's a sub, at best. That's NOT what we need at this point!

[N]

Hopefully the Raptors can trade Humps during draft night for another pick or part of a package to move up. What the Raps should do is draft a swing man and a pg in the draft, then bring in a vet SG to mentor the young wing. Next just sign Marion, and also a vet C to continue to mentor Bargs.

[Tim W.]

Boko: "If the Raptors pick DeRozan, it'll probably turn out to be the biggest mistake they've ever made. His stats show that he's a sub, at best. That's NOT what we need at this point!"

The only stats available to us are college stats, which mean very little as anyone who follows the NBA knows. In fact, DeRozen had stats VERY similar to Michael Jordan in his freshman year. And to Vince Carter in his second season. Of course, none of that means a thing, as you should know, since looking at his college stats alone don't tell us that he was on a well balanced USC team that did better than expected and went to the second round of the NCAA's where they lost to the eventual 2nd place Spartans. Stats also don't tell you his improvement over the season, and how coachable he is, how athletic he is or how hard a worker he is. They also don't tell you how he much he would score if he were more of a focal point of the offense. They don't tell you how, even as a freshman, DeRozen was one of the better perimeter defenders in the Pac-10. They don't tell you how much potential he has as a player on the offense AND defensive end. Getting back to my original statement, they don't tell you much at all. So what exactly is your point?