The dawn of a new era? Or something like that

Morning, everyone. How’s things?

Pretty zany night, no?

Some day I’ll tell you about it. Just suffice it to say that when you’re a barbecue guest at the home of good friends (Hi, Sue, Mike, Eric and Nicole!) and you’re fielding calls and e-mails and writing a story on a Blackberry, it takes a bit longer than you’d hope. Got it in about 10:30, which gave me time to at least end a lovely night relaxing.

But I will also say that I’m quite glad we never jumped on the Hedo-to-Portland’s-done on our own. Far better to put it out there on someone else’s hook until you’re absolutely sure. And there was never, ever a time that I was absolutely sure he was going to Portland, which is why prudence is sometimes the best.

Anyway …

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So, Turk, eh?

What’s it mean?

Let’s look at some pros:

Another good ball-handler and initiator on the court.

A guy you can give the ball to at the end of the game and say, ‘make a play’ while you stretch the floor with Jose (a very good three-point shooter) in the corner.

Let’s just say – as Jeff Blair first pointed out on a radio show last night – that Bosh leaves (and no, I don’t have any idea if he will). Do you feel more comfortable going forward with Calderon, Bargnani and Turkoglu or Calderon, Bargnani and Marion? A no-brainer over here.

You can put Hedo and Bargnani in the pick and roll; you could never do that with Shawn.

Can you make this case: Toronto has the same kind of starting lineup now as the defending Eastern Conference champions? To wit: Calderon as Nelson, only better at many things like, oh, shooting and dishing out assists; Bosh in the Howard role, the guy who rolls to the basket on the high screen and roll, a far more accomplished scorer and while not a defensive intimidator, he’s passable; Bargnani does as much offensively as Lewis (check the stats, they are almost exactly the same); Turkoglu’s Turkoglu and, well, maybe DeMar DeRozan becomes Courtney Lee, which I don’t think is a stretch because now he doesn’t have to do anything offensively except make cuts to the basket, get on the boards and use his athleticism.

Let’s look at some cons:

The bench may not be deep. But Ukic this year will be an improvement over Solomon last year; Reggie Evans remains an excellent pickup and, believe me, Bryan’s trying to get something done to get another two and/or three in town. Right now, that’s a concern. There is also a lot of time between now and October.

Too much money. Turk’s deal is big but they’ve projected the numbers out and it won’t hamper them doing something with Bargnani or Bosh when the time comes.

Poor defence. Yes, another concern. But with a full training camp to install a system and the presence of Mark Iavaroni, it might not be as bad as you think. As one guy who’s in the gym with them a lot said to me yesterday: “If we work on defence every day, they have to get better.”

So, there you have some.

Debate away.

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My opinion: What the hell, go for broke.

The league is built on talent and that’s as talented a starting lineup as they’ve had in years and years. Sure, if someone gets hurt they could be screwed which is exactly the same thing they’re saying in Cleveland and Boston. But if one of the starters goes down, I still think the other four can carry the load at least a little bit.

Look, everything’s a gamble.

This one just makes senses and, to me, was worth it. I like those pros far more than I’m worried about those cons.

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Here's how they explained it in the Portland paper this morning.

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Oh, and there’s this.

Here are some names that a guy in the organization gave me yesterday as possible guys who’ll fall through the cracks and be available on minimum salary deals when the economic pinch is truly felt later this summer:

Matt Barnes, Von Wafer, Gerald Green, Ronnie Price, Joey Graham, Jamario Moon (remember those last two?) and maybe even Shannon Brown, although that’s a stretch.

The point is, in these economic times, there will be bargains to be had and the one thing the Raptors can offer is a chance to play minutes, which is just what a guy on a minimum value deal wants more than anything.

Can they get a significant name? I don’t know, but there’s a chance they’ll get someone who’s more than a warm body at the end of the bench.

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In other matters, my regular morning read of Tanya’s story shows Canada lost but still moves on at the Under-19 worlds.

Not a crippling defeat – they’ll still move on to the second round – but they now probably need three wins in their next four games to move to the quarter-finals.

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What’s up with Shawn?

Well, he’s going to feel the squeeze worse than anyone. Unless Portland or Oklahoma City throws big bucks at him (they’re the only teams with money left that are likely to spend it), he’s going to have to settle for a mid-level salary.

That kind of sucks for him but it’s a sign of the times.

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Okay, I see about 50 comments in there calling me all kinds of names. Better go hold my breath and post ‘em.

Back later if something happens.

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Comments

[dallas]

Doug,

From the Portland deal's not done, to the caution of the Marion deal, turns out you were in front and on point the whole time. Good stuff.

[SteveG]

Few questions Doug,

1) Is there anyway this gets worked out to a sign-and-trade? Or is it already official that the Raps have renounced Marion et al

2) When is the deadline to use the mid-level exception? As in, what's stopping BC from making a trade - taking back a slightly larger contract to get over the cap, so that he can use the MLE?

Blogger's note: I had heard they were kind of interested in some sign-and-trade but that it's now dead; and they don't have a mid-level exception to lose or use in any way. They will, technically, be under the cap before they get Hedo to sign his contract and that's when it's determined which teams have it or not.

[k.Wright]

Hey Dougie,
Thanks for the insight. QUick question for you, with this trade do we still have the MLE available to go after a "few warm bodies"?
Thanks again

Blogger's note: No.

[Mike M.]

I'm under the impression that once Marion rejected the 4 yr deal (which was kind of absurd on his part if true) that the Raps went after Turk with renewed vigor right away. Let's see what else can be done now.

[pete]

Hey Doug, seeing as the Turkoglu deal puts them bascially at the luxury tax limit, will BC be allowed to use some of the MLE to sign another wingman. Also, what does this mean fo Delfino? Is he still coming back?

Blogger's note: Well, they won't have the mid-level because they will be, before signing Turkoglu, under the cap; Delfino would have to be willing to play for a veteran's minimum, which is doubtful; I imagine the Knicks will take a look at him.

[Jonathan]

Doug,

I love your blog but I've got a question. Why don't the Raptors go over the cap to make a push deep into the playoffs? I don't know for sure but I've got to figure the Celtics, Cavs and Lakers all have to be over the cap and if you want to go deep it seems you've got to spend. Would it be worth it for the Raptors to resign Parker and Delfino to solidify the bench and go over the cap by 5 or 6 million?

Blogger's note: All I'm going to say is this: They are over the cap.

[Lee]

"they are still wondering if there’s an easier way to get Hedo than to gut the team"

"My point is that it leads to the impression that they have decided to renounce regardless and that's not true. They may want to think about doing it for Hedo but it's not like they are going to do it without having a sure thing."

"I heard, like we heard July 1, they are talking with Shawn. Closing in? Not sure about that; there is still a Turkoglu debate being waged, I'm told"

All quotations from your yesterday's offering.

Well done!

[JJ]

Have you heard any scuttlebutt about the Raps and Orlando trying to do Turkoglu as a sign-and-trade? Or at least looking into the possibilities? Perhaps bringing in a third team if necessary?

Your colleague in Orlando, Brian Schmitz's story about the Turkoglu signing, doesn't make it appear that Otis Smith has interest in it (http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/orlando-magic/orl-sportsmagic-wallace-04070409jul04,0,4262167.story), but have you heard anything different or anything different on the Toronto end?

Blogger's note: I think there might have been some interest originally but it disappeared quickly. But not quickly enough to beat my deadline, sadly

[Omid]

hey doug, is there anyway of doing a sign and trade now with someone like parker?

Blogger's note: Can't see it. They need to renounce him to get the room to do Turkoglu, if they sign and trade him, they'll be taking back money

[Nick Loess]

so what about kleiza? any news on if they're still targeting him? I really was intrigued as him being the shooter off the bench. significant upgrade over Kapono in my opinion. Does the Hedo deal pretty much erase the possibility of pursuing him?

Blogger's note: If he'll play for the minimum, they're still interested.

[Bo]

Doug, any word on any S&T possibilities? What happened to the Delfino and Kleiza signings - are they off the table?

Blogger's note: No sign and trade talks alive any more; Delfino and Kleiza could sign minimum value contracts if they want but that's it. Not sure if they'd want to and I haven't talked to anyone close to them to find out

[SteveG]

CB4's twitter:

"IF IT'S TRUE..Let's get it cracking H Turk!!!"

looks like someone's excited!
twitter.com/chrisbosh

[Danny]

Gerald Green???
The same Gerald Green who you have repeatedly ridiculed (and rightfully so) as being far from a viable option for the team in the past? And now he is on the list of would-be-bargains? Doesn't make any sense to me Doug, why the change of heart?
Yes he is 'available' and that is technically all you said, but there are a lot of players 'available' that you haven't heartily criticized readers for mentioning in the past...

Blogger's note: I sure didn't say I'd take him, just that he's out there and might be an option. I personally wouldn't do it. But, sadly, I'm not the GM

[Kevin]

Well, at least you've made me feel slightly better about the signing Doug...I'm not overly thrilled but that starting 5 isn't bad at all.

I'm more concerned about years 3, 4 and 5 on this contract...I still think that's a lot of money to throw at a player with average production and overhyped clutch shooting (but still better than the Raps had).

Still, if he's a Rap I'll root for him, so welcome to the team Turk!

[Dagomar]

Great breakdown Doug. Before reading your article I wrote the following on another site:

I don’t like this for the Raps. They sacrifice rebounding/defense in Marion and depth with Delfino and Parker, for what exactly? Shooting and passing? The roster already had those things. That said, Turk is a clutch player, and the Raps could use that (they lost too many close games this season and last). But in the long run especially Turk is overpaid, and if Bosh leaves this deal will look that much worse. I wish they’d gone after Lee instead.

Now? You're right about going for broke, about talent being the defining factor. Hopefully there are indeed some deals to be had at summer's end. I still don't like the length of this deal but with Portland offering 5 years as well I suppose there was little choice. Good job waiting for confirmation of the Portland deal.

[pete]

Sorry, I'm a little confused, after they sign Hedo, they would be slightly under the cap, couldn't they then sign Delfino as they can go over the cap to sign their own free agents?
Blogger's note: Nope. When the cap is announced on July 7, after the Raptors have renounced all the players they have to to make the offer to Turkoglu, they will be about $10 million under the cap figure. THAT is the moment -- the only moment -- when it is determined which teams have exceptions available to them.
Toronto will not be one of them and cannot become one of them.

[William]

“If we work on defence every day, they have to get better.”

Isn't it harder to teach defence than offence? I think you are correct about late deals to be had,players get all pumped up by people and lose sight of reality. When the season approaches and there is no "respect" money,players will be desperate. Might I suggest a vacation for you this time next year Doug, the craziness will be magnified unbelievably.

[g-rav]

Doug wicked job on the blog. 147 comments yesterday, just shows yours is the best blog in town.

one question, does this increase the probability of hump leaving in a trade to acquire another sf or sg or pg as a bench player since hedo can play the 4 aswell? is that more likely to acquire another player, through trading our bigs (hump, obryant(if he's here, cuz of all the money issues))?

Blogger's note: I think they've been trying to do something with Hump for a while

[Chris]

So Doug,

Just two quick questions. If the Hedo deal becomes official, how much money can we actually offer for other minimum deals? And from my understanding, POB's contract became guaranteed recently. Does that mean he cannot be renounced?

Blogger's note: No, he can't be

[brad mayweather]

Doug, you've got some serious backpeddling to do this morning, eh?. When Doug Smith is overly confident with his statements, you've got to think that the opposite will happen! Hilarious.

At least you got a new picture this year. LOL.

[jimmy]

Credit is due to Turk's offensive game. However, this signing will not address the needs that Colangelo talked about: depth, toughness, defence, and rebounding.

I think you need to apologize to some people. Several readers asked about obtaining Turkoglu earlier in the off-season and you were quite snarky and condescending to them--inciting that the Raptors would have to renounce all their free-agents, it would never happen, get it out of your mind, enough already...

You make valid points on the pros/cons and moving forward with a core of Calderon, Bargnani, and Turk. However, if we did have Marion, Delfino, Parker, and Kleiza, would you ever make a trade with Portland/Orlando using those four players to get Turk? Those four would arguably be our best defenders. Three of them would be some of our best 3-pt shooters. Delfino was 2nd on the team in free throw attempts a couple years back. Marion and Kleiza would be our 2nd/3rd best rebounders. With those four, we would also have much better depth with all four able to play multiple positions.

I believe BC got too excited with Turk and made the wrong move. It is a big-splash signing but also a big mistake.

[Christian Mijatovic]

so as of right now the depth chart looks like this?:

Calderon Ukic Banks
DeRozen Douby
Turkoglu ?
Bosh Evens Humphries
Bargnani O'Bryant Jawai

How much money do they still have to sign players with?..roughly.
Its also a shame you have about 7.6 million tied up in Banks and Hump. It would be nice if they could some how be flipped for some depth on the wing.

[James]

I'm a bit confused. If Kleiza is willing to wait, and they sign Turkoglu July 7 does that not put them over the cap and thus make them able to use the mid-level from July 8 on?

Blogger's note: Nope not even close. When the cap is announced on July 7, after the Raptors have renounced all the players they have to to make the offer to Turkoglu, they will be about $10 million under the cap figure. THAT is the moment -- the only moment -- when it is determined which teams have exceptions available to them.
Toronto will not be one of them and cannot become one of them.

[Danny]

Two posts in one morning....big day for me.
The way you've laid out the cap/renouncing rules, it appears to me that the Raps can continue to make moves as long as no formal offer is made to Turkoglu. Why not reach an understanding with Turkoglu, but first make an offer using the MLE and/or get any potential sign-and-trade done?
I know the latter would put Toronto over the cap, but the former would remain an exception from what I understand.
From Turkoglu's perspective, wouldn't waiting a few days to sign a contract he knows he can get, giving the team around him time to get better be much better than officially signing early and then having his new team have to sign minimum salary players only? Seems to me that if all the 'rights' have been dealt with, there would be nothing that would have to be renounced...

The only thing I can think of is that such verbal understanding are not 'allowed'...but they certainly seem to happen (most recently as ESPN was reporting with Brockman during the draft after he stopped accepting to workout for any teams after the combine).

So is it just that players lack pragmatism/favour getting their own deal done above all else? Or am I misunderstanding the rules regarding the MLE.

Blogger's note: No. They cannot do "other" moves and still have the $10 million under the cap to sign Hedo. Think of it this way: When the cap number comes out July 7, the Raptors, after renouncing all they need to, will be about $10 million under it. THAT is when it's determined which teams have exceptions available to them. The Raptors will NOT be one of them.
They are still, today, operating under 2008-09 cap and tax thresholds and they are far over the first and touching up on the second so there is no wiggle room.

[Prophet2k]

Not sure I like this deal at all. The raps let a high priced 3 go and bring in an even higher priced 3. They draft a kid one year out of high school to replace the real veteran presence they had in AP. Now they are gonna field a 4/5ths solid starting five with the likes of their current summer league guys to fill out the roster?

Doug do you see Smush Parker or Carl English making the big squad now on a minimum?

Blogger's note: Parker, possibly; English 1,000 to 1 shot, maybe more