We're almost at the quarter mark

Okay, they’re 7-11, probably should be 8-10 and I imagine more than a few of you had ‘em right around that mark, no?

But it’s the way they’ve got to 7-11 that’s cause for concern. And maybe time for some fixes:

THREE THINGS I LEARNED

What do they do?

Well, it’s almost the 20-game mark, which is about when I think you should evaluate teams with as many new guys as this one does, and contemplate change.

And by that I don’t mean major trades (they don’t generally happen this early in the season) and I don’t mean anything crazily drastic in other areas of the game.

But tweaks, to starting lineups, rotations and the like.

As you read this morning in these parts, there is no desire to make changes coming from the coach, even where the rookie is concerned (and he’d be one place people would look). Jay said:

“Obviously, you could take a guy like DeMar and say, ‘yeah the rook’s screwing up for us’ but he’s not. His coverages are as sound as everybody else.”

That being damning with faint praise, it doesn’t seem to be a move the coach wants to make.

So, what else?

Well, this runs counter to the prevailing opinion out there but do you really, in your heart of hearts, think Jarrett Jack would be a more consistent and capable starter than Jose? Really? Jose has his flaws and hasn’t played well for long spurts, no question about it, but I’m not sure the other way is any better.

So, what do you do then?

Start both Jack and Calderon at the two and one and try to juggle point guard minutes? That’s too much juggling.

Start Antoine Wright at the two? Yeah, right. He’s giving them nothing at either end.

Start Marco? And take away the energy from the second unit backcourt? Don’t think so.

How about this:

Do you take a gamble and start Amir Johnson for Bargnani, knowing full well Johnson’s likely to get two fouls in three minutes and Bargnani would be back in there? It gives you a dose of energy and rebounding in the starting five, that’s for sure. Bargnani has never, ever, warmed to the idea of coming off the bench and he certainly hasn’t been the worst of the Raptors offenders this year.

So perhaps that’s the move I make.

And maybe it’s time to see what Sonny Weems can bring you – besides a penchant for shooting the ball every time he touches it – in Wright’s role. Can’t be worse.

I have no idea if Jay is truly contemplating any of these or other moves and he was caught off-guard, I think by a question in the post-game media session yesterday.

Now, I will say this: The season is not lost, they are about where a lot of us thought they would be at this point in the season and there is every possibility they can turn it around even without altering anything.

But maybe it’s time to try something.

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Sign of the times

A couple of minutes into the fourth quarter, Raps down nine and kind of making a move.

After a Toronto miss, Suns look like they’re getting a runout lauyup as Jason Richardson takes off down the floor. Amir Johnson, the only Raptor hustling, gets down the court and blocks the layup attempt in what could be a pretty nice momentum-changing play.

Trouble was, Johnson was the only Raptor really hustling back and when he blocks the shot, there’s no teammate there to gather in the loose ball.

The Suns do, they keep the possession alive and it ends with an Amare Stoudemire dunk.

Had even one or two of Johnson’s teammates sprinted as hard as he did, it’s entirely possible Toronto goes on a break back the other way and the game gets closer.

An indictment of effort.

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Action-reaction

Yes, you saw Chris Bosh get knocked down hard by Amare Stoudemire on a flagrant foul and yes, a bunch of Bosh’s teammates reacted in appropriate manner, most specifically Calderon, who got an elbow into Stoudemire’s chest to move him away.

And yes, it was duly noted by teammates and coaches.

But I’m not sure how many of you looked to the bench, where everyone got up and a couple made motions like they were going onto the court.

And there was Marc Iavaroni, doing precisely what an assistant coach has to do, making 100 per cent sure no Raptor actually took a step onto the court, which would have drawn an automatic suspension.

Watching it, it struck me that of all the people in the building, Marc would be the one with the most first-hand knowledge of how allowing players to even take one step towards an altercation can be a crippling blow.

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And in other news …

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Who says the league doesn’t pay attention to what’s going on with the Raptors?

Got a release last night that said three players had been fined – Charlotte’s Tyson Chandler and Phoenix’s Amare Stoudemire $7,500 each for posting twitter messages during games and Boston’s Rasheed Wallace $30,000 for ripping officials – and I’m thinking, wow, the office does pay attention.

Two of them – Chandler and Wallace – came in games involving Toronto.

We know what Wallace did (him complaining about officials also elicits yawns) but I don’t have a clue what Chandler tweeted ‘cause I pay little or no attention to that form of communication because I think tweeting is for the birds.

(Get it?!)

So here’s what I can only presume he said during that Wednesday game:

“Hey, this is easy!”

“Do they have five guys on the floor, or four?” “Come on, let me get in on this layup line.”

“Wow, another steal and dunk.”

“How’d these guys win seven games?”

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Marco Belinelli played 17 minutes and six seconds Sunday, missed all five shots he took, including three three-pointers, had one rebound and a turnover. Oh, and his team lost by 19.

He was a plus-13.

See my point about that useless stat?

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Correction time.

Not sure if I misrepresented the question when I posed it to a friend, or if I misinterpreted the answer I got or whatever but there was a boo-boo in Sunday’s mailbag.

Came in the last question, the one about whether an assist can be given to a guy who inbounds the ball to a teammate who immediately scores.

Yes, that can be an assist.

I was wrong in saying no.

There. I feel better.

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I offer this paragraph from a Canadian Press story from the Grey Cup last night about Saskatchewan Roughriders fans:

“Many sported watermelon helmets or the occasional watermelon bra as lines of fans slapped high fives with strangers and stopped to compare shades of green or admire white-and-green body paint.”

How could you not like that team?

Now if the coaches or players could only count to 13, we’d have something to talk about today.

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In Phoenix, Paul Coro summed up that one like this.

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So, Lawrence Frank. Out of work.

While it was hardly his fault that the Nets gave away his best player in a money dump and that is point guard got hurt and his centre got hurt and the rest of the team’s not that good, I don’t think there was anyone in the game who was surprised he got fired.

Doesn’t make it right, just makes it expected.

Now, did he become a bad coach over the last month? No way. And I bet he coaches again but please, please, I beseech all of you, do not ask if they should make a move for him now in Toronto.

I will tell you this from talking to people here and from my own opinion, nothing – NOTHING – is going on here. Nothing.

Frank, if he’s a bright guy, sits around for the rest of this season, spends some of the money he’s getting and waits for jobs to open up this summer.

I cannot imagine why any coach fired mid-season would want to jump back into a difficult job without sitting around a little while decompressing.

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Comments

[LeeZ]

Doug, if we can't have a team that knows how to play defence, I for one will settle for the next best thing: a beat grunt who consistently brings his Seinfeld "A" game: "The Raptors tried this and that and the other thing..." Kudos, my friend.

[chris]

Its a good idea to start Amir, Doug. A great one. Bargs is certainly a better player, but he's not giving enough attention to defense and rebounding.....maybe that would inspire him to improve.

Jay has painted himself into a corner by starting Demar....but, the rook is hardly our biggest problem. Jose and Bargnani have been horrible defenders, and the two together have been a recipe for disaster (bargnani isn't bad man to man but is horrible at help defense, which is what Jose needs when every PG in the league blows past him at will)

[Joachim T]

Doug,

I don't think the plus/minus is a useless stat at all. As you pointed out about Belli being 0 for 5 with 1 rebound in 17 minutes but a plus 13, sometimes its about the chemistry on the floor with him there (or any of the other players). I think you have to watch the group of 5 when he was on the floor as a whole because the fact that he's there makes him a legit scoring threat both in terms of driving and from beyond the 3 compared to a Weems/Derozan/Wright. When he was there with Bosh, there were less double teams or help defense coming over when Bosh had the ball just because Belli could hit the 3.

BTW, I contend that Jose and Jack at the 1 and 2 does not work. You must have noticed how often Jack is left open (double teams down low on Bosh) and Jack simply can't hit open shots. I might even go so far that Jack is killing the Raptors with his inability to hit open shots. And the worst part of it all is that he's throwing up bricks and clunkers; when he releases the shot, the viewer can see that it is not going in. Jose at the 2 doesn't work either because he still has the PG mentality of passing first and hardly shooting. He's not shooting well this season either but when he does shoot, his shooting motion takes too much time and isn't quick enough to get some shots off.

[chris]

btw, Doug -- any thoughts on what kind of job iavaroni has done as our defensive coach? We're looking a lot like memphis did last year, and they were a team full of rookies.

[Leroy]

Hey Doug, love the blog, keep up the good work!

So, yes here is almost 1/5 of the season. 7-11 is of course disappointing, but it is not the worst case scenario as it could be like you said. But do you believe that if Reggie Evans was able to play, we could have won 1 or two games, and have a .500 record? Btw, I think you might answer or check this out alot of time. But when will Reggie be 100% and ready to go?

Blogger's note: No idea

[Sean]

Hey Doug,

If Andrea is demoted to the second unit we are going to be in for bigger problems. If you think your getting inconsistent minutes from Andrea now, then see what u get with him comin off the bench and purposely not giving 100% (see TJ Ford) because he is not in support of the decision. I would be strongly against that move even though it would make sense. You touched on whether Jack would be a better move with him in the starting unit? I say yes! It's a mental adjustment that would make the difference. Jack would realize that he is in there for a reason and his focus would change slightly thus his production would change as well. Here is my proposed starters. Bosh, Bargnani, Turk, Belinelli, Jack. I'm sure you will ask well where is the energy comin from in the second unit? Calderon will now be ur offensive focal point and have the green light to totally abuse second tier point guards. Kinda what they did in Portland with Miller coming off the bench. And I PROMISE, Derozen will strive with Calderon, Wright/Weems, Johnson, and Rasho/Evans. They need to try that for say 5 games. Ur thoughts?

Blogger's note: I believe you've just read my thoughts

[Dave]

Doug, I agree that Johnson for Bargnani is a necessary consideration. But I think the first move is indeed Jack for Calderon. I'm not Jose bashing, but Jack brings more consistent energy on D and I think it would allow Hedo to become more consistently involved with that unit. Fact is the chemistry of the starting 5 is not right and needs to change.

[niagarahoops]

I agree with Sean's starting line up of Bosh Bargs Hedo Jack and Marco but telling Jose he is coming of the bench is going to lead to more problems. If that is not possible, there is nothing wrong with DD coming off the bench. I know it is something that Colangelo wanted but in that position, he is playing against too much talent/experience from other teams. It would be good for that raps to have teh energy from marco right from the start of the game.

[Ellie]

I admit I went to last night's game hoping to see Nash play well (had never seen him in the flesh and he was in fine form), but I wasn't hoping for Toronto to get blown out.

The atmosphere in the ACC was DEADLY last night even while the game was fairly close. The lower bowl was practically deserted. During the fourth quarter, it felt almost hushed. One wonders how much to blame the recession and how much to blame how the team's playing. They're certainly not going to inspire anyone to dig deeper for ticket money playing as they did last night.

On a side note, I don't think making Bargnani come off the bench makes any sense at all. There's no comparison between how he played during his second year and how he's playing now. I think he should be proud of the changes he's made.

[Change is good]

May be someone can pass these changes on to Triano.

[PJ]

I don't bench Bargnani. To tell the truth, I think the problem lies more with the in-game rotations than the starting line-up. Oh... and change whatever they are eating/drinking at half time.

[Marlon]

Doug,

I think the fines to Chandler and Stoudemire were due to the NBA policy against tweeting, emailing, or the use of cell phones at games. Not necessarily on what they tweeted. Keep up the good work, and Raps needs slight changes indeed.

Blogger's note: Yes, I understand that; was kind of joking

[Panagnos]

Doug,

I disagree with you about the +/- reference you made being a useless stat. BTW Belinelli had 3 rebounds in the game. Sure, he played badly, as did everyone else. Even though he did not score a point his team performed better when he was on the floor. He run hard screens, he stayed on his man on defense, he spaced the floor and gave his team a positive (+) rating during his time on the floor.

Anyhow. If these stats are pretty useless why are the Raptors seating at 7 and 11?

[ttfox]

You mentioned that there is no desire coming from the coach to tinker the starting line up. Jeez... I pity Bosh. I have to admit he's doing a yeoman's job on the court. He's the only one playing defense. Everyone else only has offense on their minds. Bargnani is a spectator. He gets those 5-6 rebounds by default because the ball just falls in front of him.
Does Jay have a twitter account? Maybe everyone can twitter him to change his starting five.

[Jojo]

What's with this team and 3rd quarters? I've lost count of how many games in a row they've been destroyed in the 3rd after either having a big lead at the half or being close. I have to assume the guys are in shape by now, so it's not fatigue. Are other teams making adjustments that the Raps aren't making?

As far as Jack vs. Calderon in the starting lineup goes, while neither has been consistent, at least Jack was trying to attack the Phoenix guards a bit yesterday. Nash is an amazing player, but opposing guards usually go at him since he's vulnerable at that end. Jose has been way too passive this season. I'd at least try starting Jack and I'm all for Bargs as a 6th man. You can't keep babying the guy and he needs to be accountable on both ends. Get some D into that starting lineup already.

[D.]

Doug, do you really think starting Amir over Andrea for the first 3 minutes of the first quarter could improve your terrible defense? What about Calderon and the absurd over-switching? Your team needs better coaching and discipline, both on offense and defense.

[CC]

Doug, although i agree to put Amir for Andrea in the starting 5, I think Andrea's game will suffer more for he will loose his confidence. It would be better off to TRADE Andrea for a good defender (than bench him) while he has still value. How about keeping Andrea in starting 5 but limiting it to the first 5 minutes and putting Amir in. When the opponents subs comes in maybe putting him back?

[anthony.mackay]

Doug,
I like the lines posted by Sean @ November 30, 2009 at 08:49 AM. But I'd replace Belinelli with Wright in the starting lineup. Most of our Offense will come from our 3 bigs while our best 2 defending guards are on the floor to prevent breakdowns... plus Turk helps Jack bring it up if needed. This line up can play fast or slow in half court sets and still has a lot of shooting to spread the floor.

Starters:
Bosh, Bargnani, Turk, Wright, Jack

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2nd Unit:
Derozen Calderon, Belinelli, Johnson, Rasho.

This unit plays fast or faster and even faster (and small)... I think this lineup would kill most other teams bench. Jose leading the break with Amir, DD running the wings will create highlight real plays, still 2 legit 3 point shooters on the floor and Rasho along with Amir should hold their own rebounding against 2nd tier players.

It just seems like our starting lineup is overloaded with offensive options (didn't think that was possible)... putting our best guard defenders in the starting lineup means our slightly weaker guard defenders don't have to deal with the Wades, Pauls, Nashs and D-Wills and even Rondo's of the league.

[Matt M]

All stats are useless if taken in isolation and no one tries to understand how formulas affect the numbers, or don't have enough of an understanding of the game to determine how certain numbers might occur. Too many times I see someone try to make a point about a player and use a single stat as definitive proof. It has gotten worse with things like PER, 82games, and basketball prospectus, if only because the math creating the stats has become more complicated. This is through lack of education about stats in general, because almost all the people creating stats have a post-secondary background in statistical analysis and not enough of the people in chat rooms, or the certain members of the media (present company excluded of course), using these stats have any sort of statistical background.

That said, stats, even +/-, can provide insights that might not be readily obvious on the floor especially to someone who doesn't understand the nuances of basketball. I like the box score version +/- used as a team based stat, but not as an individual stat. I think there is good potential for +/- to be used to evaluate five man units and the chemistry of those units. This comes with the caveat you still have to watch the games to understand why a certain five man unit is playing well, and this is not available in box scores. I don't know enough about it to determine whether it is possible to tease out individual performances, but have a couple ideas that might work with a large enough sample. That said, and with you Doug I completely agree, the box score version of +/- is completely useless as an individual stat.

[jp]

Bargs is one of the better defenders on this non-defensive team! Calderon is the problem, and taking him out of the starting lineup isn't enough. We have to trade him and see if we can pry Monta Ellis away from Golden State. Calderon and Wright might be enough. This would give us the best PG combos (Ellis and Jack) in the NBA and more importantly it would stop the defensive break downs that we come to expect with Calderon. Defense starts with the man first, not the team. As a result of the PG blow bys Bosh and Bargs are constantly having to help out, and leaving their own men to do as they please. Please put the blame where it deserves to be. The Problem lies with Jose, and I don't care how good he is offensively, defence matters more!

[Steve]

I think I'm hopping on the Jack/Belinelli bandwagon. I'm a big Jose fan but I think that Jack will be able to hold his own to start the game and I would love to see Jose start abusing the other team when they have to go to the bench. I also think that he and Demar will get a chance to build the chemistry that we are starting to see between them if they both come off the bench since missing the occaisional lob pass during those times isn't as big of a deal.

And Doug maybe today will be your lucky day and you won't have to deal with too many Jose Haters in the comments, after all he only made Steve Nash look like Steve Nash yesterday.

[Jim K]

I don't care about beautiful exciting basketball. You want to know what's more exciting? WINS! I want defence. Here's an idea! Slow the game down!!!

High tempo games force the teams to scramble on defense more. And these guys have already shown the don't want to exude any effort on defense. Therefore slow the game down and limit the other team's possessions on offensive end. Slowing the game down also forces the other team to face a set defense, and not one that is scrambling back in transition.

That will bring the opponents points down. If we then trust in the O, we'll get more wins. Simple!

[David]

Who are these nutbars suggesting Jack start over Jose?? One is a borderline allstar point guard, the other is a backup combo guard who can't hit an open jumper? Don't get me wrong...Jack is a solid backup, but not an NBA calibre starter....

[Andrew]

I'd start Calderon, Turk, Bargnani, Bosh and Johnson before I take Bargnani out of the starting lineup.

[Sean]

Niagarahoops, thanks for agreeing but I don't agree. I think if there is anyone who would take the demotion like a champ would be Calderon. I could be wrong but he seems more of a team player. And I strongly don't condone Calderon and Bargs being on the court together at the same time, too many defensive blips. And trust me, Marco and Calderon will be a recipe for disaster. Think about it, if Marco is out there with Jack it would allow Jack to play to his strength and be a penetrator cause they won't be able to leave Marco alone. And I think Marco would respond better to having Jack beside him defensively.