On making changes and celebrating the big day

Ah, game day.

I can feel the angst already.

Great to be a Raptors fan, isn’t folks?

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I get the sense that Jay would really like to do more to change things up; and I presume and hope he’s got his eye on both Turkoglu and Bargnani, neither of whom have been very good.

And he’s probably been looking DeRozan, too, because there’s always been a thought they’d move the rookie out of the starting lineup before the post-season began.

But he keeps saying – and this is a point he started making last week in Oakland – that there really isn’t anyone out there who’s really won a job, save for the point guard situation.

“I have a hard time finding guys in the second group that have warranted the ability to start for the most part.

“I could make change just to make change but I don’t know if we want to throw four or five guys’ rhythm out.”

The trouble with doing, say, Amir Johnson for Bargnani, and that’s the one that makes the most sense to me, would be that it would totally screw the second unit out of its most energetic frontcourt player.

Johnson’s been a revelation most nights, although he’s back to fouling a bit more than anyone would like, and I don’t think the gains they’d get to start the game would be worth the hit they’d take when the rotation starts.

Look, Bargnani was awful in Portland and has been invisible too many times of late, there is no question about it.

But I think that Jay’s wiser to do what he did the other night against the Blazers: Go with a quick hook for Andrea if he’s not getting himself involved at either end of the floor. That’s a good way to send the message without totaling messing with the rotations.

As for Turk, it’s this simple: They have to keep running him out there because if he doesn’t play well, they really can’t win. Taking him out, for say Sonny, does nothing, really. The simple fact is Turkoglu has to be more like he was early in the Golden State Game and for most of the Portland game, when he more assertive and more effective and didn’t look all that bad.

If he is, they’ll have chances to win; if he’s not, well, the criticisms will pour in

For 4 1-2 months, Turk’s been more a bust than a boon; it’s time for him to start being a factor. The season’s not lost by any stretch of the imagination, 43 wins and a fifth or sixth seed are certainly within reach if he can string together a series of solid games.

Can he? I guess that’s what’ll keep a lot of you watching.

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Pacers 99, Bobcats 94

Spurs 88, Heat 76

Grizzlies 104, Bulls 97

Kinda makes the coffee taste a little bit better this morning, doesn’t it?

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Questions.

Answers.

Noon.

As he used to say:

Dontcha dare miss it!

(Yes, that means we’ll have our little game-day session today at noon; wish there was an outdoor area at the ACC with wireless ‘cause I’m told it’s going to be a pretty nice day outside).

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I can hear it now (and I’ll read it later):

Doug, you’re a dope on the No Change But Jose Thing.

Don’t you know how bad Jose’s been and isn’t that just change for change’s sake.

Ah, no, it’s not.

I’ll say this one more time just to provide some fodder but Jose’s defence is not as bad as so many of you think; it’s not perfect but it’s not awful.

And with him shooting the ball so well now, and the team just running a bit more efficiently with him at the helm (and I offer the third quarter of the Portland game as a perfect example) this is a move that needs to be made to bring about significant improvement.

Will it? Who knows. But it’s something I think – and have thought for a very long time – something that needs to be done.

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Mail? Send it here.

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This, my friends, is a classic. An absolute classic.

It comes from an Irregular out in Waterloo (thanks, Jim) and of all the ex-Raptors I figured would go on to fame in big-budge movies, Mengke Bateer would not have topped the list.

But apparently, he does.

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Speaking of the Hawks, who arrive sans Joe Johnson, they were able to stave off the Nets last night and here’s what they had to say about it.

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These guys will go to any length to celebrate something, it appears.

Not only will they be wearing the green tonight for all our Irish friends – and those who pretend to be on what some of us refer to as an “amateur night” there were guys at practice yesterday wearing shoes with green accents on them.

Let’s see, they’ve got white and black for the regular uniforms, shoes with blue highlights for the nights they are the Huskies and now some with green when they are the O’Raptors? That’s going an extra mile.

And while some of you are celebrating your Inner Irish, around here Casa Doug there’s another party being staged.

Super Dog turns four today (that’s right from the breeder when we got her) and I’m trying to figure out how to jam a candle into a treat.

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Comments

[K]

Was that an Ed Whalen reference? Does that make tonight's game a ring-a-ding-dong-dandy?

Blogger's note: Billy Red Lyons,but good call

[Blake Kennedy]

"Shooting the ball so well right now"? Over the past 10 games, Jose's eFG% is .506 with a True Shooting % of .522; compare that to Jack's eFG% of .615 and TS% of .651 over the same span. Who's really shooting better? Jack has been our second most efficient player in the past 10 games, with an offensive rating (points produced per 100 individual possessions) of 122.2, second only behind Amir Johnson at 129.4. The next most efficient player on our roster isn't even Jose (or Bosh!) it's DeRozan who's been at 114.3 the past 10 games. Jose's been at 110.3. While that's not bad, it's nowhere near what Jack has been producing.

Hell, even Banks was more efficient than Jose has been in the 1 game he got to play in that stretch.

If one third quarter in which the team succeeded and Jose just happened to be on the floor with them (and not really actually causing the team to succeed) is their only evidence for going with the weaker player, then they deserve all the losses they're going to rack up

Blogger's note: Stats can be manipulated anyway you like; take the last two games as my point. But thanks for the numbers

[Nick]

You know what else helps the coffee go down easier? Irish Mist. Happy St. Patrick's Day.

[Lorie]

Hi Doug! Do you think time spent playing for the Raptors in Toronto was in any part a useful prerequisite for successful performances within the "magic realism of Chinese cinema"? (Many Happy Returns to Super Dog! And if you have any Kong toys at Casa Doug, peanut butter inserted in them hold candles for as long as Super Dog will allow.)

[Ben]

Your article was very refreshing to read today, especially the paragraph about Turk. Lets hope he picks up his game and starts being more assertive. Here's to a win tonight.

and PS I just received the new ish. of Slam today and there was a full page article on Jack. Its nice that others notice the only Canadian team :) We don't tend to get too much good praise throughout the league.

[Boko]

Hi, Doug. I agree with you. José starting is the only move Jay can make right now that has any significant chance of working out. Jarrett'll be disappointed for awhile, but if we start winning again, he'll adjust quickly. Amir is not a starter yet, so Andrea should stay beside Chris. The real problem with the rotation is efficiency at the swings. Two or three of Hedo (who's still out of shape), DeMar (who's trying to overcome the rookie wall), Sonny (who's never had this many minutes before), Marco (who plays crazy) & Antoine (who is a no-O option) really have to step it up from this point forward. You'll know Jay has seen they haven't if he keeps sending out both Jarrett & José together (other than for free throw shooting and ball-control when we're up with a lead [Wouldn't that be nice for a change!]).

[oliveira]

wy don't they use banks a bit to shore up the defence? Or even in place of Demar? Crawford must be licking his chops when it comes to torching the rook.

[Blake Kennedy]

A response, Doug - "take the past two games"? What is this, we throw out all the evidence of Jack outperforming Calderon by miles based on the most favourable possible split for Jose? Why do we ignore all the games Jack was shooting the lights out and living at the free throw stripe based on two games?

Oh, I know: that's the only possible way we can empirically justify Jose's existence on this team. We look at only the things he did well and just try to forget how poor he's been this year, in the main. I get it, now: we're reduced to excuse-making and truth-colouring to justify our $9 million/year backup point guard's play, it just can't stand on its own two feet.

And by the way, shooting percentages are pretty damned tough to manipulate: either a guy shot or he didn't, and either he made it or he didn't.

[Anthony]

Agree Amir should keep coming off the bench for the simple fact he brings hustle to that 2nd unit. The Jose for JJ replacement is debatable and we'll have to wait and see if it really makes a difference.

Would you put Rasho in the starting lineup for Andrea, he will stay down in the post and re-bound, play some D and then Andrea gives that 2nd unit an extra offensive boost. I'd then let Andrea start the 3rd Q along side Bosh.

[Chi of Steel]

Hey Doug, don't get the Jose haters get you down. It makes entire sense to have Calderon back to his rightful spot -- even though he's great as a back-up, too. It's not so much his shooting but his focus that I appreciate. Jarrett's careless with his passes sometimes, but worse than that, he hangs his head after the turnover and plays like his energy is sapped. Conversely, Jose takes care of the ball, and for all his defensive deficiencies, when he does get burned, he hustles and doesn't let those things get to him mentally.

[sara]

Team's biggest problem is defence . Are we seriously expecting to address it by taking out JJ and replacing him with Calderon ? The only logic and necessary shakeup was to put Andrea into the second unit and give the starting job to Amir , or start Rasho if you don't want to totally screw the second unit . That would have been a real change - The only change everybody was expecting for and a better way to send the message .

[Rob.V]

Have to believe that even a Jose for Jack swap is change simply for changes sake (but that's ok) because the problem is not with the offence.

I do wonder though if the coach is still placating Bargnani and Turk though because anyone who's watched them recently would have to agree that these two should be benched before Jack. Jose seems to be the whipping boy for all that ails the Raptors. Probably because he's mature enough and is a great team guy however one has to wonder if the message being sent "through" Jose... is actually reaching the players that should be feeling the wrath of the coach? At some point Triano may have to stop being so subtle with the "repeat" offenders... and be more hardline with Turk and Bargnani as well. Using Jose and Jack to send "subliminal" messages to others doesnt send a good message to the players. At what point is EVERYONE accountable?

Just get on the damn glass already!!!.

Personally, I could care less who is on the floor so long as they are boxing out and securing the defensive rebounds!!

Mengke - that IS a classic!!

So, no lines, and stabbed to death by little people. Ok, that's a good start. I imagine he'll eventually work his way up to the (not quite so Shakespearian lines of) "can I take your order"... and... "here's your water".

But from there, who knows, the skies the limit... good for him!!!

[Kelsey]

Its a risk putting in Amir in starting line up, however the time now is crucial. Jay/Raptors must try something different. Fine start Jose, maybe this will let jack get crucial minutes in the 3rd and 4th qtr. Hedo, yes they have to play him, however the guy has been terrible and there has been nothing to say this will change.Quick hooks for Hedo. Raptors need a 2 guard BC make the change in the summer, dangle Jose or Bargnani please!!!!

[DS]

If there is any game to switch things up especially in the frontcourt it's tonights game. Horford and Smith give the Raps problems. I would love to see how a Johnson/Bosh frontcourt would do against them. Also we need to consider this may be a potential first round matchup, so matching up Amir's energy with Smith's may not be a bad thing. As for Jose and Jack, it really doesn't matter that much to me but Doug as much as u say Jose runs the offense more smoothly....numbers don't lie. The bottomline is they've won more games with Jack and wins say it all! But I can see putting Jose in only if Amir starts cause Bargnani doesn't flourish with Jose out there.

[Michel G]

To Blake Kennedy: Even off the bench, Jose was the Raps best point guard. And frankly, I like Jose coming off the bench because it gave us 48 minutes of solid point guard play. And unless he stank that night he would finish the games, which is all that matters. As you point out, Jack's numbers are still excellent, but he's not making the players around him better at the moment. It's as simple as that. All the statistics in the world can't hide that.

[SS]

Doug can you please explain to me why Jay and even you for that matter put so much emphasis on "messing up the rotation"? Jay says he doesn't want to start folk just to start them. Can someone tell him that we are losing and losing at the wrong time. The starting lineup as it is right now has some major deficiencies and going into the playoffs with it as it is, is not gonna get us far. It's not that our starters are not our best players, it's just that sometimes you don't need all your best players playing at the same. Jay is so concerned with messing up the second unit. Were not trying to win games with guys that only play a max of 20 mins a game. It's the starters that need to make the difference. Please Doug explain cause drastic times call for drastic measures.

[Perry]

As for Jose, I see it as a solid professional distraction by the coaches. But I'd rather focus on the fact that the team has lost 9 of 10 games and now has a losing record overall.

If I get to see this game, I won't even be watching for the impact on D. What's always been more interesting to me (in the last 18 months?) is Jose Calderon's refusal to run the break. You can say what you will about Jarrett Jack but the one thing he does do is create easy baskets for himself and his teammates in the open floor. On home court, I always find this to be an important dynamic because it gets the crowd involved, puts the opponent on their heels and is a reliable momentum-shifter. When people say that Jose runs a more 'efficient' offense, I throw my hands up in the air. Let's not confuse running the system into the ground with running an efficient offense.

Jose was moving the ball somewhat better with the second unit and I hope it continues with the starters. But I'm not holding my breath.

[sm]

Blake Kennedy doesn't Like José. I'm sure all regular readers get the point. The Legend of José's defensive liabilities has grown to epic proportions. He's niether as bad or good as some people think. On offense he's a different player than Jack. and I don't think we should compare as much as aprreciate the two and what they bring. It would be nice if they won a couple of games - A moral victory like the game against the Lakers is nice, but it is all about winning.

If Jay starts Jose tonight let's see where it takes the team. Let's remember - He is the least of the Raptors Problems at this point.

[Matt]

What if we play Turk and he doesn't get better? He's played somethign like 66 games allready and the only consistant thing he has brought is his inability to be an effective player.

If we are going to lose if Turk doesn't play well then lets give Sonny a chance. Turk has 1 good game in 10. So that means he may have about 1.7 good games in him for the rest of the season. By your logic that gives this team maybe 2 more victories. One thing you have maybe overlooked is that we tend to win when Sonny plays well and he has played well a lot more than he's played poorly.

How about we give players time who have earned it regardless of their contract or past performances in previous seasons. Basketball is allways about what have you done for me today. Most players have a 5 year window where they are really good and time just wont wait for Hedo.

[Boko]

As of 10:43 am, the votes are:

Amir +3 (therefore promote him to a starter) !
José +2 (therefore promote him to a starter) !
Marcus +2 (therefore promote him to a sub?)
Rasho +2 (therefore promote him to a sub?)

Jarrett -1 (therefore demote him to a sub) !
DeMar -1 (therefore demote him to a sub?)
Sonny -1 (therefore demote him to the bench?)
Marco -1 (therefore demote him to the bench?)
Antoine -1 (therefore demote him to the bench?)
Andrea -3 (therefore demote him to a sub) !
Hedo -4 (therefore demote him to a sub?)

I see two moves here (Amir/Andrea & José/Jarrett). There's a third & fourth that are needed (Hedo & DeMar), but there's no-one to promote at swing!

[Peter]

If the Raps don't make the playoffs, I'd settle for GruntTV episodes guest starring Super Dog. Just sayin.

[Jarrod]

TJ Ford vs. Jose Calderon: "Yank TJ - the guy's a bum! Put in Jose!"
Calderon vs. Jarrett Jack: "Yank Jose - the guy's a bum! Put in JJ!"
Jack vs. Jose: "Yank Jack - the guy's a bum! Put in Jose!"
Calderon vs. Jarrett Jack: "Yank Jose - the guy's a bum! Put in Jack!"

Man! I'm sure if we had Chris Paul as our starter, we'd still get calls to put our backup in ahead of him. Instead of barking about which point should start (given that they play similar minutes, does it matter all that much?), why not just call out the whole team as underperforming and put our energies into supporting them and staying positive into the playoffs?

[stoneman]

Hey Blake,

I can only assume your brilliant statistical accumen will translate into an NBA job. We are so honoured to have the benefit such an outstanding expert. Or not...

[Pipit]

"As for Turk, it’s this simple: They have to keep running him out there because if he doesn’t play well, they really can’t win. Taking him out, for say Sonny, does nothing, really."

This blog of yours today Doug has been under a lot of scrutiny. Hat's off to you for stirring the mix of the Raptor's nation. But your opinion about Sonny "does nothing" is a cheap shot made on the guy and a lack of coaching knowledge of the game. So the team will suffer if Turk's play doesn't improve? And we can't let the others play because we need to ride on Turk because the Raps can't win without him? Total BS! So what happened to "Jay's philosophy" of whoever plays hard plays the game? It's a totally different story if you can see the passion on Turk's eyes eventhough he made a couple of mistakes. But this guy's attitude towards the game eventhough he's playing poorly is a disgrace. 50 plus games into the season and we're still hoping for a miracle that Turk will play like Turkey's Michael Jordan. False hope. This Turkoglu saga is being played poorly by Jay. Let the others guy play if he doesn't play well. What's the sense of having others playing on the team if this guy continuous to play bad.

[Boko]

P.S. If I was Jay, I'd try ...
START: Chris Amir Sonny DeMar José
SUB: Andrea Hedo Jarrett
WAITING: Rasho Marcus
And if I was Bryan, I'd be planning to get a new swing ASAP, to send a message to Hedo!!!!!!!!