Of all the over-rated things in sports, momentum is one

Okay, so, you’d hope sometime we’d get a good game for one of those in-game blogs, no?

A dog the other night with the Suns-Blazers that goes until 1:30 a.m. and a dog last night with Spurs-Mavs that goes about an hour earlier.

No wonder I’m worn out. And a little late.

Anyway, we’ll give Hawks-Bucks a shot tonight at, at the very least, it’s an 8 p.m. start here in the East so it won’t be a late night.

Until then …

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So much for momentum.

The San Antonio Spurs beat Dallas three straight times and lie down in Game 5.

The Oklahoma City Thunder run over and around the Lakers for two straight games and then run over and around when they get back to Los Angeles, drilled without putting up much resistance at all.

It just goes to show you, in one man’s opinion, that momentum game-to-game is one of the most over-rated aspects of playoff basketball.

There is very little, or no, carryover from one game to another because teams make adjustments, players who lose play with more intensity and the slate truly is wiped clean.

Take the Lakers, for instance.

They were run out of the gym in Oklahoma City and it looked after Game 4 that there was some confusion and, not fear, but concern throughout the team. They couldn’t corral Westbrook, they couldn’t match the Thunder’s athleticism and it seemed as if any momentum was on the side of a young team that was playing old.

Well, Kobe guards Westbrook, they finally decided to ride the strengths of their interior game and Ron Artest – thankfully shorn of that ridiculous hair-do – makes some shots and plays a role.

Presto, change-o, they’re up 3-2 and seemingly in command.

Momentum, especially in the playoffs, goes as far as your last shot or your last quarter, certainly not your last game and it absolutely does not carry from road games back to home.

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I know this runs counter to what a lot of people thought 24 hours ago, but is there a sense that maybe the Dallas Mavericks lead their series with the Spurs 2-3?

Probably not, given that San Antonio plays pretty well at home and the Mavs seem to struggle with their emotions in the face of a hostile environment but that series might still have some legs.

Unlike Tim Duncan, though. Four points the other night at home, a non-factor last night in Dallas. The dude is aging right before our very eyes and if he doesn’t have even a good game in Game 6, I can see that one being back in Dallas for a deciding Game 7.

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Let’s get the housekeeping out of the way for the first time this week.

Send off the mail bag queries here and we’ll start the weakly, er, weekly, process.

Have fun.

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So, what of the Heat?

If you read my man Sheridan here, the suggestion he’s giving is that Dwyane Wade will be back, which would come as no surprise to me at all since I’d figured he was the last of the big name free agents who’d go looking for a new home.

But what about the rest of them?

I found it interesting that Michael Beasley was benched for the entire second half of Game 5 in Boston, replaced by an injured veteran, Udonis Haslem, who is just the kind of hard-nosed, defensive-minded guy a team like, oh, Toronto could use.

Here’s the trouble, though, if you’re Toronto and Chris Bosh comes to you and says, ‘you know, I think Miami’s a nice place and I think I’d like to go play there.’

What do you want in a sign-and-trade?

Nothing, really, in my opinion.

I’m not sure Beasley’s ever going to get it, I’m not even sure what position he’s going to end up playing and if it’s power forward, well, he’s going to be a backup here.

Jermaine O’Neal is not the answer, he’s too old, too beaten up and I’m pretty sure he’s not taking any kind of backup role in Toronto if he comes back. And if I’m the Raptors and can get Amir Johnson back under contract, my starting frontcourt is filled with him and Bargnani.

Point guard? Yeah, right. For all of you out there who think Jose and Jarrett might have issues, I absolutely guarantee you they would start in Miami and to think of taking one of those Heat guards back is silly.

So I’m thinking if Bosh does want the Heat – and there’s no indication he does – it’s going to take some Steve Fruitman-Bryan Colangelo multi-team sign-and-trade to make that happen and my head hurts even thinking about that possibility.

Either that or settle for something silly like a trade exception, which sounds a whole lot more sexier than it is because that’s usually a euphemism for “let’s save some money under the guise of spending in the future.”

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You don’t think professional, um, athletes taking losing hard?

Jake cried, for goodness sake, when the people spoke and the DWTS dream died.

Cried!

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Speaking of something that has absolutely nothing to do with this stuff, how do you think Shawn Marcum feels?

Dude’s been the best pitcher on the staff for nearly a month and doesn’t have a win?

Long, long season ahead.

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You know what I think I’d like?

I think I’d like the Chicago Bulls to change GMs and re-up coach Vinny Del Negro.

Now, I’m not close enough to the situation often enough to really have an informed opinion but what if all the shenanigans that have gone on with the Bulls are not coaching issues but management issues?

What if Vinny, who has somehow coached that team into the playoffs the last two years without either a low post offensive presence or a consistent three-point shooter, can coach?

What if John Paxson, who got rid of guys who can play to save money to make a run at someone this summer, isn’t the be-all and end-all as a GM?

That’d be cool, wouldn’t it?

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Oh, great.

Cavs-Celtics doesn’t start until Saturday which means three days of exhaustive coverage of – ta-da! – LeBron’s elbow.

I swear, listening to a bit of their game against the Bulls on Wednesday that he was dragging the elbow around with it bent the wrong way, bones protruding and in agony.

Guess what? Dude’s got a sore elbow. Had an MRI, no structural damage and his joint’s been sore for a while.

Big whoop.

You need to find me an NBA player still playing who isn’t banged up at least a little; then we’ll have ourselves a story.

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Comments

[chris]

Playoffs are about adjustments, my man. Always have been. Only time you see "momentum" is when one of the teams is seriously overmatched. Otherwise, either blowouts (on both sides) or close games....but rarely does one game look like the next.

If Miami gets Bosh with the cap space we traded to them, i'll puke.

[Matty-Pix]

Are there different trade restrictions when a team with cap (like Miami) is involved in a 3-way trade in the offseason? Or do other teams still have to be sending out and receiveing salaries within that same percentage?

Example (for example's sake):

Toronto sends Bosh to Miami
Toronto sends Jack and Banks to Philly

Miami send Beasley to Philly

Philly sends Iggy to Toronto

[Marc]

Agree with you on Miami...I'd encourage Bosh to look elsewhere. If you put a gun to my head and ordered me to make a deal with the Heat then I'd want Haslem, Chalmers, maybe Wright, our first round draft pick back and one of Miami's.
But here's the question, of team's likely to interest Bosh, who among them have pieces that the Raptors would want. Maybe Dallas, L.A.?

[John S]

It seems as though the consensus is that Bosh is a huge flight risk but is open to a sign and trade to ensure that Toronto gets some assets in return. As a long-suffering Raptors fan, the offseason is usually something to look forward to and I'm wondering about the possibilities.

Sign and trade: Bosh to the Bulls for Deng and Noah.

I believe that the Bulls would have enough cap space to still go out and sign someone like a Joe Johnson to fill the hole they would have at the 2/3. Also, they would get the post player that they have been missing since Brand to pair with Rose.

In Noah Toronto gets one of the league's best rebounders who's great on the offensive glass and a glue guy who is better defensively than Bosh. And Deng adds a tough (but overpaid) wing player who in my opinion represents a huge upgrade defensively over Turk.

Thoughts?

Blogger's note: I think I would be hugely surprised if the Bulls even considered moving Noah.

[dribbles]

I've seen a few Celtics game on the tube where I've been treated to Tom Heinsohn's not-so-objective take on the game at hand, but last night I was pretty surprised to hear him go into Tim Donaghy mode and explicitly accuse the refs of some underhanded behaviour ("now they're just manufacturing points," among other gems). I find it a little odd that David Stern hates public criticism of refs from anyone affiliated with the league, but somehow it's ok that just about any fan in North America who was watching this game last night hears one of the commentators going off on the refs like this? The other thing I found odd was that they seemed to show a replay of just about every call that Tom found questionable. I watch tons of games and I don't think I've ever seen so many replays of foul calls. I know other team's commentators are biased to varying extents, but last night's broadcast, especially since it wasn't just limited to a local market, seemed like it would have upset Mr. Stern just a bit.

On Beasely, that guy might be the most talented (at least offensively) head case I've seen. He doesn't play D at all though. I don't want him on the Raps.

[Johnny's]

From Chris Broussard's article today:

James actually said the Cavs were hoping to meet Chicago in the first round rather than the hapless Toronto Raptors, precisely because the Bulls would battle them.

"We knew this team would push us,'' James said. "That's not taking anything away from Toronto but with (Chris) Bosh being out for the rest of the season and all those injuries, it just didn't seem like they even wanted to make the playoffs at the end of the season. So it probably would've ended up in that same way if we had played Toronto like it was last year.

"But when Chicago made the eighth seed, we were excited about that because we knew we had to be in tune every possession and every game because that team plays hard no matter the score, no matter the time and no matter what the series is.''

The Raps are in a bad bad place right now.

[Bill]

What are you thoughts on VC's impact in Orlando's playoff success? They seem to be able to win games without him doing anything out there. Is that just because they were playing the Bobcats and he will need to step up if they want to beat the Hawks/Bucks in the next round?

What do you think is the main reason for VC's poor performance so far this year?

Blogger's note: Stats aside, I think Vince has been okay, as I plan to elaborate on in the morning

[Raptoronto]

What does Gar Forman do for the Bulls?

Blogger's note: He's the GM, Paxson's the Executive VP who has ultimate responsibility

[Rob.V]

Have to agree with Doug.

Vinnie Del Negro has done a masturful job of getting the Bulls to over achieve the past 2 seasons. Chicago has been slashing payroll with an eye on this off season and really had no business being in the playoffs. I mean, just look at what the Knicks have done over the past 2 seasons with the same mindset. Yikes!!!

Another good point dude!!! Lebrons elbow is a non starter. I think most of these guys today are all DRAMA queens. Remember Pierce with the 3 broken legs... only to return and drop a few 3's on the Lakers on the way to the championship.

This year, Lebron has a pimple on his right elbow!!!... and if you were to listen to the announcers... you might as well get Kobe a freakin "wheelchair" out there because, you know, he doesnt seem to have any body parts in working order.

I mean really, to see Lebron slouching there all "gangster" like he'd just been shot in the right shoulder after the game was absolutely HILARIOUS! Didnt he just go off for like 50 points, 30 assists, and 30 rebounds or something lol! ... but please (David Aldridge) you're going to have to hold me up for this 20 second interview.

All of these cat's want to be Michael with the flu... or Willis Reed with the leg or ankle (whatever that was)... but unfortunately legends cannot be "faked"... and pimples and toe cramps simply do not count.

Just shut up... and play the games!!!!

[joe]

Doug,
Very good points this morning. Couldn't agree more. Wouldn't want anyone from Miami in a sign and trade for Bosh and Del Negro isn't as bad as Chicago management makes him out to be and has progressed as a head coach. Question for you regarding the Atlanta Hawks. What's your opinion on them? At times, they look like they're ready to take the next step and become a contender but then they lapse into mental fogs and play down to their opponents. Many examples come to mind: The March 17th game against the Raps: they had the Raptors down to start the 4th quarter and let them back in and sneak out a win. The last two games of this series, they have let an undermanned Milwaukee team back into series. Is it immaturity, lack of mental focus, coaching, etc? Thanks

Blogger's note: I think there are some issues with mental toughness on that team

[Peter]

Just curious to know if you've seen this, and what you thought of it. This is from the "5 Things" section of this morning's Star.com.
http://deadspin.com/5525568/incredible-euroleague-buzzer+beater-runs-the-gamut-of-human-emotions

Blogger's note: Classic, one of the greatest things I've seen

[david]

The conventional wisdom is that Bosh is leaving, but could something dramatic still convince him to sign in Toronto?

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=2b7x48w
Is trading for Gilbert Arenas (and getting a perimeter player that can create his own shot) dramatic enough to keep Bosh?

Is Arenas worth the obvious risks: psychological, physical, financial?

I find the hypothetical of what would need to happen to keep Bosh in Toronto a more interesting subject for speculation, than the myriad sign and trade possibilities.

[Wil]

Hey Doug,

You wrote that Del Negro took the Bulls to the playoffs without a three-point threat for the past two seasons. I think you may be forgetting that last year outside shooting was one of their strengths. Ben Gordon? John Salmons?

[doug]

I was never a Paxson fan after the needless sweatband incident with Wallace...you sign a free-agent and then pick a battle with him over a sweatband?...it showed me where his priorities lie, as to me it's a absurd team rule and one that to me was only being enforced to show who was in charge or supposedly was ...Paxson...then you had another issue with Vinnie all over control....Paxson seems to like to exert he is control, but in control of what??...a team that has obviously missed key parts for sometime without him having either the ability or inclination to give the Bulls a inside scoring presence....he's managed to arrange management so as Forman i am sure will be a fall guy as Paxson can claim he is Vp...yea right, he has to go, he's the only problem with that organization, Del Negro as he has shown is a fine coach, and the players play for him...

[Richard]

Hey Doug,

A comment and a question based on last night's NBA playoff viewings:

First the comment.
Jamario Moon in his role on the Cavs (and after a more prominent role with the Raps) is the perfect illustration of why all the statistical gurus and their followers are flawed when they use projections based on per 48 minutes to evaluate individual performances and suggest larger roles for certain players on that basis. Shining for 10 minutes a game does not suggest that if given 30 mins. said player will maintain that level of production. Exhibit A - Jamario Moon.

Question for you Doug.
Have you ever spoken with Tom Heinsohn? And if yes, is he for real, or is the flagrant "homerism" an act he's cultivated as a local broadcaster to create an image and boost his profile among the Boston faithful?
I find him so one-sided in his view of the game, it's as if he believes he's still coaching the Celtics. He's ridiculous.

[Adam]

Firstly, in this man's opinion Ricky Romero has been the Jays' best pitcher this season and is a better story as he has more upside.

Secondly, how does this sound?
Raptors trade: Calderon, Banks, DeRozan, 2010 1st Round pick

Sixers trade: Iguadala, Holiday

[Chris]

Whaddaya mean Miami has nothing the Raps would want? We could take Haslim....ummmmm...maybe just the whole bench, the coach, the trainers, a rack of balls, the blackhawks zamboni driver, the zamboni....oh, and the Bulls could send us back Chuck! We want the Swirsk! We want the Swirsk!

[doug]

this is why i am not a stats person...take the case of Carter, people are saying he needs to produce, he hasn't been a factor etc...to me that's hogwash, in my opinion whenever a team is playing well and winning its because of a domino affect .....lets say your playing the Magic, you have to respect Carter, you have to respect Lewis, Nelson, Howard....so you basically have one on one match-ups all over the floor...players can't produce if double teamed in the long run....so Carter serves a purpose, and in fact will "go off" for 24 points in a game when there is a match-up or he just gets hot.....so stats lie, its like here when Hedo, Bosh were healthy....it gives Bargs room to operate and get his shot...as when Hedo was hurt or Bosh was teams could collpase or double..so when people say Hedo only got 6 points, 7 boards in a game..I bet Bosh got his or Bargs got his...or a combo...you have to respect skilled players...so to me Carter,Lewis are fine...as against the Bobcats they spread the floor for Nelson to do his thing...if they play the cavs, to me Lewis, and Carter will have big series as they (the Cavs) don't match-up well against them...as will Howard be more effective if he plays smarter and stays out of foul trouble...stats just tell a small part of the story to me and not the real story in most cases.

[Nick M]

Doug, totally agree with you on your stats comment. VC stills commands respect because he will 'go off'. However, the Hedo example may be stretching it. If I read your comment correctly a player must still pose a threat to be effective and I don't think that that happened for Hedo this year although I'm sure he had good 'statistical' games.

Well one down, 98 Raptor problems to go.

[Anthony]

I hope Turk learns how to run in the off-season cause jogging/speed walking in transition ain't gonna cut it unless your 7'1, 325lbs and trying to win a ring for the king!

Go Cavs!

[emoney]

Watching the Lakers trought out onto the court out of the tunnel before the game started was interesting. They all look ready and when they are coming out there is a lot of pride on their faces to be in the Lakers uniform. I knew OKC wasn't going to win, its very very difficult to win on the road in the playoffs. Lakers showed the advantage of being at home and distroyed them. It was funny to contrast the Raptors attitudes with the Lakers.

[Kazbid]

I don't see how u can consider del Negro a good coach after all the close games he has lost. I agree the management has been bad in Chicago. But del Negro is holding that team back. They have talent.

Last years playoffs was the best example. Every game was close so u could see the crunch time play calling of both coaches. All Chicago did was run isolation plays or ben gordon for the last 4 minutes of every game. Even when he was being double triple teamed. Del Negro made 0 adjustments. Ben Gordon could only hit so many crazy shots before thy lost in 7.

I think Chicago would do Noah for bosh. Ya noahs great. Good bball iq. But he does disappear during stretches. And is really not a consistent offensive threat.

[Aditya]

It just goes to show you, in one man’s opinion, that momentum game-to-game is one of the most over-rated aspects of playoff basketball.
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who says its over-rated?

[Aditya]

Jermaine O’Neal is not the answer, he’s too old, too beaten up and I’m pretty sure he’s not taking any kind of backup role in Toronto if he comes back
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O'Neal's a free agent, but i am sure you knew that

[Aditya]

I think I’d like the Chicago Bulls to change GMs and re-up coach Vinny Del Negro.
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Wow, ease up there Big Easy. Your tone changed so fast from what it was in December. You criticized Del Negro. NOW you actually notice he did a good job with that Chicago Bull roster, I saw NOWWW......good on ya mate