Of summer roster moves and the voting process has begun

A little bit shorter than usual and a little bit later but it’s a holiday so you’ve got some time go lounge around here during the day.

Have fun.

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Here’s something to chew on.

Is Sonny Weems making Antoine Wright expendable?

When it comes time to make the summer roster moves – and I sure hope it’s not as a crazy as last summer – do you think Bryan Colangelo’s going to look at the progress Weems has made this season and think, ‘hey, I’ve got Weems and DeRozan and Turkoglu and Belinelli all under contract; do I have room to bring Antoine back at any price?”

I bet he does ask that of himself and, to me, it’s going to be hard decision to make because I quite like what Wright’s been bringing to the table for most of the season. Weems, however, has been one of the best surprises of the season and the Raptors really like what he brings and the promise that he shows.

So the harsh reality is there may not be room for Wright here next season unless Bryan finds a way to divest himself of one of those other four and even then, the GM may want to seek someone he thinks is better as a free agent rather than re-sign Antoine.

What would I do?

As much as I wouldn’t want to, I’d probably roll the dice and let Wright walk barring any other transactions.

Tough call, though. A very tough one.

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Okay, so me and a couple of million fans are going to figure out who the MVP is, I understand.

The ballots for the annual awards arrived in the e-mail yesterday and yours truly hit the big shot trifecta, with votes for MVP, coach of the year and rookie of the year.

Same as last year, if I recall correctly.

No, I don’t know who will be my top five MVPs yet, nor my top three coaches or rookies. I’ve got until the end of the season to do it and I’ll probably give it some thought the middle of next week.

But the bigger news, not by much though, is that fans can now vote for MVP through web balloting. They get to have one of the now 125 votes that’ll decide how much LeBron wins by.

Now, it’s not that big a deal, one vote out of 125 isn’t really going to make that much difference (although if you see Tracy McGrady, Yao Ming or Allen Iverson you’ll know who was voting) but I do have an issue with the whole process.

Doesn’t it diminish it just a little by letting any Tom, Dick or Harriett click on a website and make a vote? I know it’s all about fan involvement and marketing and that kind of junk but at some point, fans need to be fans and not participants in the process.

MVP voting is a pretty big deal, some of us take it quite seriously, and I’m not sure letting anyone in the world in on it is a great idea.

But, then again, I don’t get to set league-wide policy. And that’s a true shame.

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Last call for mail.

Still not sure when the mailbag will run (odd scheduling this weekend with a Saturday afternoon game) but if you don’t click here you’ve got no chance to be in it.

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We will not witness history in Toronto on Sunday. Well, maybe a slice but not a big piece.

Don Nelson is three games away from passing Lenny Wilkens as the winningest coach in NBA history and the Warriors only have a home game tonight against the Knicks before they get here for Sunday.

Now, Lenny’s 1,332 total was more a function of longevity and the silliness of owners who kept hiring him about four years after he failed to publicly announce his retirement and the same can be said for Nellie.

That’s one of those records that’s quite dubious, in my mind. If you hang around long enough, the wins have to pile up, even if you’re not a particularly good coach.

And Nellie, in my opinion, has been stealing money for more than a couple of years; he’s got one more year at about $6 million to and for that kind of wage, I want a guy who’ll at least pretend to put in some kind of system and at least work a bit hard at developing young talent rather that simply putting five guys on the floor and telling them to go play.

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He’s not exactly a shell of his former self but, as a few of you have mentioned, Chris Bosh is a bit smaller than he was at the start of the season.

I asked him about his weight the other night, and how much of the extra bulk he had when the season began that he’d lost.

He told me he’s down about 10 pounds since opening night, which seems about right just looking at him. Maybe it’s 12 or 14 but it’s right around there.

Pretty predictable, too.

The season is long and tiring, there isn’t as much time to hit the weight room or get in extra workouts and diets do take a bit of a hit what with all the travelling and nice catered airplane meals.

I imagine everyone loses weight during an NBA season – except some of us grunts, of course – and Bosh is just going through the normal progression.

Still looked not bad putting up 34 the other night.

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This just in:

Go green this week.

It’s the NBA’s annual Green Week again, which means all kinds of socially responsible messages and programs and, I believe, goofy materials for uniforms and shooting shirts and the like.

Hope they go for the hemp, that’s always a good look.

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Just in case you were wondering, this is what’s going on in Philly.

Comments

[Blake Kennedy]

For what little it's worth, Doug, I'd agree wholeheartedly on your take of Weems vs. Wright and the advanced metrics concur with you. Weems is the better rebounder, is more efficient offensively, distributes the ball better than Antoine and what might come as a shock, has been better defensively this year than Antoine has been.

Frankly, Antoine is astonishingly unproductive (the third least productive player per minute in the entire league of all those who have played at least 1,000 minutes, as measured by PER) and to say that his defense hasn't done jack for this team is an understatement, what with us being the worst defensive team in the league and all. I think most people can see where Sonny's speed and quickness gives us a needed help where Antoine's slow-footedness does not.

[Peter]

Hi Doug,
As a fan, I have a different perspective on the MVP voting than you. I like the fact that I can go online and vote. I follow the league as well, and it's great to know that the money I invest as a fan also gives me ownership of a vote for the MVP. What I like even more about my vote is that as it gets combined with millions of other voters, it's only worth 1/125th of the actual vote. That's less than one percent, and to me, that's about the right balance for a fan vote in comparison to a collection of grunt votes.

[marc in panama]

Hola Doug,

What happened to Feschuk?? Did he fall down and bump his head? Kidnapped by aliens and replaced by a doppelgänger ?

A positive article about something Raptors?

I didn't think the miracle happened until Sunday... ;)

Ciao amigo,

marc in panama

[MJ]

Doug, I know how much you love Kobe Bryant (completely understandable), but please give some serious consideration to Kevin Durant in the MVP voting. He's got the numbers and has lead the youngest team in the league to a 46-28 record in the West.

If the Thunder finish strong, he should definitely get some first-place votes, but he's at least a top 2 candidate.

[City Country]

`But, then again, I don’t get to set league-wide policy. And that’s a true shame. ``

Lol. Doug, couldn`t agree more on the fan voting thing. Iverson for MVP! McGrady for MVP! (dang Asia and their massive population). But really, LeBron has way more wide-spread popularity amongst fans and while it should be a close race between he and Durant, the fan voting will guarantee LeBron the award without question.

As I`m sure you`d attest, fans and scrutinous logic don`t necessarily go together.

[jimt]

I think its fantastic news fans get to vote,we do live in a democracy and a small speck of vote doesnt hurt any1.My Picks would be MVP=D12,COY=Sloan,come on people its time,and a cryin shame he got 2 the hall first.ROY=Evans,jennnings close 2nd.Looking back i can see 7 games the raps should have won which would have put us squarely in 5th which is where we belong and matching us up with either boston or atlanta.2bad id like to battle with boston in the first round.

[BB]

Would the Raptors have the cap space available to get David Lee if Bosh decided to leave this summer? I remember some chatter of him signing here last summer. Any thoughts?

Blogger's note: No

[doug]

slow b-ball day...but I just wanted to say congrats to your one of your fellow writers ...I never ever buy the Sun as I don't ever feel the need to divest myself of 50 cents that badly..but a few years ago I picked one up on the subway someone had left behind and in the sports section was article by Steve Buffery one of the best columns i had read in a while...just a funny, sefl-deprecating bit of journalism about his life, "Bubba", travels...so from then on I continued to seek out that column just because it made me laugh and smile (and actually bought the Sun on a few occasions just for that article)....well bosses being bosses as in every job new ones make needless changes at times, and Buffery's column was no longer....instead Gary Lowen had the gig...well it was like going from reading Hunter S Thompson to a tome by Sarah Palin......so again no longer did i read the Sun, until yesterday i was in a restaurant having a bite, there was a Sun laying there which I picked up...and lo and behold Buffery was back, I don't know how happy Bubba will be but I am elated...its just a wonderful piece of journalism...the Star should have you do the same thing its just refreshing.....so congrats and well-deserved on his part....and your blog is equally commendable....not bad for two old snarky, curmudgeons...

[James Online]

Weems has no range on his jump shot, no floor game, and doesn't play defense well. He's got a nice short jumper and is active around the rim. He will become a journeyman type NBA player, much in the mold of Wright or Evans.
Weems and DeRozan are too similar. One should go. But because Colangelo and Triano seem fixated on "athletes" over "basketball players" at the wing, that isn't perceived as a problem in Toronto.
Find a way to free Marco Belinelli as he doesn't fit into Raptor's plan and has skills that translate better into other systems. With all the changes that are coming upon Bosh's departure, there should be plenty of opportunities to move him.

[Jim]

Antoine Wright, as someone mentioned above, is statistically one of the least productive offensive players in the league. With a consistent long range jump shot to complement his defensive mentality, he'd become a valuable role player night in night out. Colangelo should be looking to acquire this type of player in the offseason, because the roster as it stands is currently lacking a defensively focused deadeye from the wing to provide stability behind the improving young guns. A Shane Battier / Carlos Delfino / Raja Bell type would fit like a charm.

[Tony Oliver]

"Would the Raptors have the cap space available to get David Lee if Bosh decided to leave this summer? I remember some chatter of him signing here last summer. Any thoughts?
Blogger's note: No"

Doug, I usually understand how this is so, once you take the time to explain (again) the details re: cap, exceptions, luxury tax, etc.

I guess what I'm asking is:
1. If Bosh is gone in a sign and trade, for the max, how much must we take back in salary to make it work, and would we have any other $$$ to spend in free agency, while staying under the luxury tax threshold?

2. If Bosh is gone alone, where are we with respect to $$$ to spend in free agency in summer 2010, assuming we use all exceptions available and nudge up to the luxury tax threshold?

3. If Bosh stays and re-ups for the max, do we have any $$$ left under the tax threshold to spend in 2010, assuming we use whatever exceptions allowed? Do we have an exception of some sort to use to go over the tax, pay the big bucks, and try to keep CB here?

One of these 3 is gonna happen, I'm just trying to figure it out...

Feel free to move the answer to the weekend mailbox, since I tended to stretch it out a bit. oops!

Blogger's note: I will

[Dave]

Good story to complement the note about Bosh slimming down a bit (and hopefully quell any "Bosh isn't working out so as to save his body to cash in this off-season" comments). A few years back Malik Rose in NY publicly says he asked to be placed on the inactive list if he's not going to play because he can't lift the way he wants to to maintain his body if he expects he's going to play in a game. Chris plays every game (barring injury), and sweats out thousands of calories a day playing basketball -- it's next to impossible to maintain that sort of muscle when you're playing basketball every day.

Remember Kobe a few years back when he came in looking like Mike Tyson? By the end of the season he was looking like a slightly-bigger-than-last-year Kobe.

Oh, ya. Carmelo went something like 4-16 the other night. He must be playing safe waiting for a new contract in the 2011 off-season.

[doug]

"city country"...i think you need to do some remedial math re-training...in your blog you state "the fan voting will guarantee LeBron the MVP without question"...you do understand how it works right??....as 1/125th of the votes accounts for under 1% of the vote....08% to be specific....so how does that "without question" give the award to LeBron, if you can answer that then i can guarantee many politicians would love to talk to you....as never has one vote had so much power...

[James Online]

Both Weems and Derozan rank considerably below Marco Belinelli in ESPN's PER analysis, which comprehensively measures a player's overall game. Triano doesn't get the big picture.
Further, Marco's plus/minus is extraordinarily positive, especially given his limited role the second half of the season.
Raps have found their place: just above the Baron Davis-less LA Clippers.

[Aditya]

"As much as I wouldn’t want to, I’d probably roll the dice and let Wright walk barring any other transactions. "
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This is so like (unable to find word)......because you don't know if Bosh is coming back or not. Yeah, they don't play the same position, but that plays a role in the decision making. If Bosh leaves and Raps get someone in a sign and trade, lets presume Al Harrington and another guy (lets say Toney Douglas) from New York, they would take a step back and then would trade Wright because they wouldn't be contending if Bosh leaves. They would then let Sonny and Demar develop over the next 1-2 seasons and see if then they can make a run at a championship then. You can debunk my point if you think Raptors wouldn't take a step back if Bosh leaves no matter who they get back in a plausible sign-and-trade. The chances are low that they get better if Bosh leaves.

[Aditya]

@ Blake Kennedy
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If you think Sonny Weems has been better than Antoine Wright "defensively", you must not be watching basketball

[Dave]

James Online - I think you're right out to lunch. "Weems has no range on his jumper"? He's not a good 3 point shooter, but inside 22-ft, he is very consistent. That is pretty good range. He only shoots shots that he makes - or knows he can make - which is why he shoots a great %...He is very athletic, as you say, which bodes very well for his defensive skills...You don't seem to know what you're talking about..."Raptors one step above the Baron-less Clippers"? Statements like this make people wonder if you've even watched any games this year...the plus/minus stat you refer to is meaningless. If Bellinelli is in during garbage time, and the Raps score points, his plus goes up....Who knows where that stat would be if he played 25 min a game....I guarantee it would plummet.

[Luke]

"Both Weems and Derozan rank considerably below Marco Belinelli in ESPN's PER analysis, which comprehensively measures a player's overall game. Triano doesn't get the big picture.
Further, Marco's plus/minus is extraordinarily positive, especially given his limited role the second half of the season."

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You euro-fanbois are unbelievable. Seriously, just evaluate players based on their actual skillset, not race or nationality or whatever measure you use. Yes it's cool that you share a nationality with a player, no he's not some poor star-calibre player ready to break out held down by the shackles of an oppressive North American basketball conspiracy. If you know anything about basketball you should know +/- is one of the most statistically insignificant stats kept, it relates directly to the competition faced.

In regards to the PER if you watch the raptors you should know that for the entire season, at least in the case of DeRozan, he has been starting and forced to face the stiffest competition out there.

We already have a somewhat athletic shooter to come off the bench, his name is Turkoglu, and no one in their right mind will be taking that contract off our hands so he's not going anywhere.

[BW]

Green Week: They'll wear their green shirts as they flit around the country on chartered flights playing a game... :) What's that word? Starts with an H...

[doug]

James on-line...you can't or shouldn't since you did, make statements such as Weems has no range on his jump shot....he has one of the best mid-range jumpers (a endangered species) that I have seen in a young ball player in a long time...and he is a excellent perimeter defender for also a young guy without a lot of playing time relative to others...the raptors would be crazy to get rid of either Weems or DD and thats isn't going to happen i am sure.....but then you back up, well back-up isn't the right word...you further show how ridicuious those statements are by quoting +/- stats....Weems is without a doubt any GM's dream player....and he won't be going anywhere, nor should Amir...as if we are going to build and improve these are pieces of the puzzle...

[Phil A]

Everytime I watch Sonny Weems play, I keep thinking this is the type of player that Joey Graham was expected to become.

[T I]

Antoine Wright should not and will not be re-signed.. he is a classic case of the "Torontonian hype machine". Antoine Wright may have the odd game where he has a decent night offensively, and he did have one week (and a half) where he was quite good this season, but for the most part he has been abysmal! I hate when the ball gets in his hand on offense. I just know he's going to jack up a 3 without attempting to drive (HELLO! YOU'RE A WING AND A CAREER 30% shooter). Also, don't get me started about how overrated he is on defense. Yes, he has a tough job by having to guard the other team's best player on most nights, however to suggest he is actually a GOOD defender that cannot be replaced is a JOKE! One of the MAIN counter-pounches to covering a superstar wing(i.e. Kobe, Joe Johnson, Lebron etc.etc.) is by making them work on the opposite end of the court when we get the ball (so as to maybe make them use a lot of energy and wear them down) - because lets face it, NBA players will not stop other nba players 1 on 1 consistently, it;s just reality. Antoine Wright is TERRIBLE (yes I truly believe I am not exagerrating) on offense.

Sure he might provide great quotes for the reporters, but he is one of those "vocal" guys who cannot back up his big words, thus the complete opposite of a leader. I'd much rather let DeMar play more than Wright and learn through experience as because of his athleticism (and Antoine's lack thereof), I would have to predict that not only will DeMar be a MUCH MUCH better offensive player than Wright, i doubt it will take him more than a season to be better on the defensive end as well.

Look, i don't hate Antoine, I've actually met him once downtown with Sonny, he's a nice guy. On the other hand, he is not worth the money unless he makes what Sonny's making next year, and Wright fans should NOT be surprised when Brian will surely let him go next season.

[Blake Kennedy]

@ Aditya.

I not only have seen every minute of Raptors basketball this year, I have documented every defensive possession for this team this year through a method called "Project Defensive Score Sheet", tracking not only standard boxscore defensive stats (defensive rebounds, steals, blocks) but also forced misses (not including blocks), field goals allowed, forced turnovers (not including steals), and forced free throws missed and made for every individual and separating out uncontested action as well. Sonny has a higher stop% and a better defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions faced) than Wright. I'll gladly admit Wright's fundamentals defensively are better in many regards (although he has major work ethic issues where close-outs are concerned, and Sonny does not), but Sonny is far quicker and obviously a better leaper so the outcome shouldn't be that startling.

[Eric Dellomont]

"Doesn’t it diminish it just a little by letting any Tom, Dick or Harriett click on a website and make a vote? I know it’s all about fan involvement and marketing and that kind of junk but at some point, fans need to be fans and not participants in the process." - Doug Smith

Doug this is probably the most ridiculous comment you have ever written. Most of us find it diminishing that the MVP process allows someone like yourself have a vote. Do you really think you are an authority on NBA basketball? Or simply an observer who really doesn't know b-ball more than the most of us true Raptors/NBA fans?

[James Online]

Dave...thanks for your observations. I do watch all the Raptors games very carefully and have been a season ticket holder at Golden State for twenty years. I know bad basketball when I see it!
As for Marco's plus/minus, very little of his very high numbers there come from garbage time. Your comment that if he played more his numbers would plummet have no basis in evidence, only speculation. I'm not going to insult you, but honestly the facts speak for themselves: the Raptors play better when Marco is out there, and much much worse when DeRozan plays.
That's because you and others confuse sheer athleticism with basketball talent. Watch Weems or DeRozan on defense for a while. They make no effort to fight through picks or prevent their man from getting the ball in the first place--two of Marco's defensive trademarks. DeRozan looks completely lost. Weems was traded twice during the off season: the Denver announcers said "Weems was never known for his defense at Denver" and laughed during the recent game.
When DeRozan or Weems are out there, the defense for the other team pays little or no attention to them. That hurts the Raps because the opponents' defense can collapse in the middle. Marco demands respect from behind the 3pt line, which opens up the court for everyone else. That's one reason his plus/minus is so high, even when he himself doesn't score much.
Neither Weems, nor DeRozan, nor Wright has much of a floor game.
My comment about the Baron-less Clippers (also playing the second night of a back to back on the road) is the Raps' current level of play is born out by their record.
Raptors are a .500 team in a weak conference. If that's good enough for you, Dave, then enjoy what your watching because that's all you're going to get.