The Suns are going to win? Yeah, sure. Now tell us why

A fella picks the Suns in seven probably as much for wishful thinking as anything but there is some rationalization that kind of makes it make sense. Like this little breakdown of the series that starts Monday night:

Point guard

Derek Fisher vs. Steve Nash

Nash isn’t as fast as Oklahoma City’s Russell Westbrook, who killed Fisher in the first round, nor is he as strong as Utah’s Deron Williams, who killed Fisher in the second round.

But Nash is a leader, he can make shots, he can create havoc and he’s as tough pound-for-pound as anybody in the league. Oh, and his shooting is perfect antidote for any decision the Lakers may make to slough off him to cover others.

Fisher’s aging, is hardly quick and athletic; but he’s a streaky shooter and you have to admit he makes big shots at key moments late in close games.

Still …

Advantage: Suns

Shooting guard

Kobe Bryant vs. Jason Richardson

No way Richardson can stop Bryant and you’re going to see Grant Hill covering Bryant for a lot of the time. Doesn’t really matter, though, because Kobe’s Kobe, he has a score to settle with the Suns from years ago and, if his knee holds up, he could be phenomenal, like he usually is.

Richardson can indeed stretch defences with his three-point shooting but since the Lakers aren’t likely to double anyone, those open looks could be few and far between. Besides, that Bryant fellow’s not a bad defender in his own right.

Advantage: Lakers.

Small forward

Ron Artest vs. Grant Hill

Again, this is a matchup in flux since Hill will move around a lot so it’s probably not fair to judge it one-on-one. But whoever said life, or NBA Western Conference finals preview packages, was fair?

Artest’s been pretty good in the playoffs and the best thing the Suns can hope for is that he knocks down a couple of early threes because it gets him thinking he’s some deadly long-distance shooter.

This would be a big edge for the Lakers if Artest actually had to cover someone critical to Phoenix’s offence but Hill’s hardly that. Artest’s biggest challenge is going to come when he’s guarding someone off the Suns bench.

Advantage: Lakers, slightly.

Power forward

Pau Gasol vs. Amar’e Stoudemire

You want to talk about your study in contrasts? How about the smooth Gasol against the power of Stoudemire? How about someone with finesse against someone with brute strength? Fascinating in a lot of ways.

Gasol’s a stud, no question about it, he can finish with both hands, he rebounds effectively most of the time and he’s probably quick enough to recover and catch up with Stoudemire rolling off high screens in Phoenix’s bread-and-butter play.

Stoudemire? Might have been the best player in the league for parts of the second half of the regular season but he’s got a tendency to wander on defence and that’s where Gasol’s going to have a huge edge.

Advantage: Lakers

Centre

Andrew Bynum vs. Robin Lopez

The medics may determine this one, actually.

Bynum’s got some cartilage issues in his knee and hasn’t really practiced hard in a week; Lopez returns after missing more than a month with a bad back. Instead of numbers, they should probably wear red crosses on their jerseys.

But all things being equal, Bynum’s bigger, stronger and more experienced. Trouble for him is the Suns are not going to get a lot of minutes out of Lopez and then it’s matter of finding out what Phoenix backup that Bynum can cover.

Advantage: Lakers

Bench

Lamar Odom, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, Sasha Vujacic, Luke Walton for Los Angeles; Channing Frye, Jared Dudley, Goran Dragic, Leandro Barbosa, Luis Amundson for Phoenix

Remember way back in the day when the Suns had to ride all their starters for like 40 minutes a night because you and I were almost effective as their bench? Um, not so much any more. Phoenix comes at you with waves of shooters and quickness and you never know which one’s going to have some kind of huge breakout game (hi, Goran!). Oh, and Dudley’s going to make one of the Laker bigs come far away from the basket, which is foreign territory for them.

Odom’s the enigma in this whole thing. Sublimely gifted, he can dominate or disappear depending on either his mood, the day’s biorhythms or what have you. The rest of them? Relatively marginal talent.

Advantage: Suns.

Coaching

Phil Jackson vs. Alvin Gentry

Mind games? You want mind games? Oh, Phil will give you mind games like few others and there’s a level of condescension to him that some (hi, Doug!) find rather irksome. Still, the dude can coach, can’t he?

About the only thing many people know about Alvin is that he’s not Terry Porter and that seems to have worked wonders with the Suns.

Advantage: Lakers.

And now the requisite other stuff to think about:

How often are we going to see Kobe Bryant move over and guard Steve Nash? I’m betting it’s quite often and that’s going to have pretty big impact on games, methinks?

So, in his playoff history, Nash had had a gory gash on his nose one year, been hip-checked into a scorer’s table another time and bloodied over his eye a week ago. If he heads onto the court followed by a swarm of locusts, we’ve got ourselves a story.

The series could very well turn on three-point shooting and I’d like Phoenix’s chances in that regard.

The last time Bryant faced the Suns in a playoff game, he absolutely disappeared in the second half of Game 7 in 2006, three shots, one point and accusations he went in the tank in protest of a shoddy lineup around him. I’m betting that doesn’t happen again.

The real burning question: What kind of hair or fashion statement will Ron Artest make for Game 1?

Hands up everyone who really, really, really wants Nash to play for a championship? Thought so.

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Comments

[doug]

I would definitely lvoe for nash to win a championship...do i forsee it happening this year no...as the one thing that makes playing against the Lakers so tough to me is this....you can prepare for them in a oneoff game or two....but to win 4 is just tough, as Kobe,Gasol,Odom are just so versatile and good that its just a matter of being worn down...can it happen of course its just tough, as those 3 plus Phil just add up to a tough assignment and to me the Suns don't have the horses to pull it off...the first 2 games will tell the story, the Lakers have a tendency to start series slow, the Suns need to capitalize and win one of the first two, as also it would help alleviate any doubts in there own mind...if the Lakers win first 2, to me it's over...

[KX]

So you compared the starting roster and Lakers won 4 out of 5, what made you pick Suns to win in the end then?

[doug]

you know I just wanted to add as a aside this non-related b-ball point..yesterday i came in and happened to catch the preakness...it reminded me, that of all the great atletes in history that Secretariat would be in my top 3....yes a horse, but what a horse, to watch those 3 races again as i did on youtube still gives me goosebumps, from the Derby where he ran the fastest time ever which still stands to this day, to the preakness where he just came thru like a thunderbolt and finally the Belmont where he won by 25 lengths, one of the most amazing feats ever...he wasn't just a race horse, he was a machine, and Sham would have won the triple crown in any other year, sometimes its just timing..but Secratariat was a athlete of the ages..

[Dan]

The last time Kobe faced the Suns in the playoffs was actually the next year, in 2007, when the Lakers lost in 5 and Kobe asked for a trade.

[Matt Kovacs-age12]

Do you think that the game Nash played with one eye open could garuntee him a spot in the hall of fame?

[Matt M]

I could be very happy with a Suns v. Magic final. I ain't holdin' my breath though. I don't think the Suns really have a hope to beat the Lakers. My thought process is that benches are less important than the starting line up in the playoffs (I think there are some esoteric statistics to back me up). I think Kobe-Gasol are that much better than Nash-Amare. Maybe because I consider Gasol a hall-of-fame caliber player and don't think Amare has a chance for that honor. The rest of the players aren't better or worse enough to make a real difference. But still, I'm hoping that you're right and I'm wrong.

[Aditya]

Hands up everyone who really, really, really wants Nash to play for a championship? Thought so.
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Pretty sure there are more Kobe fans here than Nash fans. How about we take a vote to prove you wrong?

[Aditya]

Here's a stat for you. Phil Jackson has won 12 straight conference finals appearances. What makes you think he's losing this one?

[Aditya]

How often are we going to see Kobe Bryant move over and guard Steve Nash? I’m betting it’s quite often and that’s going to have pretty big impact on games, methinks?
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Kobe Bryant's not gonna guard Steve Nash quite often. I'll donate $25 to any charity of your choice if I lose this bet (assuming you are going to accept this bet)

[steve]

as much as I would love to see suns win do you really think there going to win a game seven in LA?

[Kevin]

Hi Doug, Like KX I'm wondering how you pick the Lakers in most positions but you have the Suns winning. Are you actually being a fan on this one?

[J]

Aditya:

"Pretty sure there are more Kobe fans here than Nash fans. How about we take a vote to prove you wrong?"
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You mean like last time when you predicted a deep playoff run for the Mavericks? Sheesh, give it (constantly trying to show up Doug) a break.

[J.R.]

I'm WAY more of a Steve Nash fan than a Kobe fan. That doesn't mean I don't' realize Kobe is the better player.If it is a long series and if the Laker starters wear down or suffer nagging injuries, then I can see the Suns prevailing. But the Suns starters are about a Chirs Bosh short of being better than the Lakers starters.

[Marlon]

Celtics - absolutely hate that team (although I cheered for them against Cleveland).
Magic - There's this love/hate thing with HWSNBN guy.
Lakers - Kobe's still the best player right now but can't get to cheer for him.
Suns - I dislike Amare, but there's this Nash guy.
So Suns it is.

[128-107]

So, according to you, the Lakers have the advantages in all cateories except two, yet somehow the Suns will win this? Got it. Check. Or maybe you're just another irrational Laker hater. Could that be it? I do give you some credit for at least mentioning your bias up front, unlike fools like John Hollinger at ESPN.

By the way, how'd the game last night fit into your prediction?

Blogger's note: Since my *guess* was that L.A. would win three games, it fit absolutely perfectly. Thanks for the praise