Want to know why Orlando wins? Read on, fine people

Forget the usual mundane matters around these parts, let’s take a little deeper look at the Magic-Celtics and see just how a guy can come up with Orlando in seven, shall we?

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Point guard

Jameer Nelson vs. Rajon Rondo

You could make the case – quite strongly – that each has been his team’s most valuable player throughout the playoffs and this will be one of the most compelling matchups of the series.

Nelson has trouble guarding ultra-quick point guards (who doesn’t?) and Rondo’s ability to get in the paint and dish drives the Boston offence an awful lot. But, the imposing presence of Dwight Howard back there will help the Magic.

Rondo’s not as good a jump shooter as Nelson and he’s had his troubles at the foul line despite putting up some gaudy numbers.

Nelson’s a tough, tough kid who seems to thrive in big games.

Advantage: Even and it could be the matchup that determines the series.

Shooting guard

Vince Carter vs. Ray Allen

Carter still settles for too many jump shots on too many occasions (sound familiar, Raptor fans?) but he’s quite capable of going off at a moment’s notice. It’s his first time on this stage, it’ll be interesting to see how he reacts but not having to be the engine to drive his team has to help.

Allen? He’s found some fountain of youth in the last few games and might have been the difference in the Cleveland series. His defensive liabilities might be masked if Carter doesn’t attack him and his catch-and-shoot jumper remains as pretty as any in the game.

Advantage: A slight one to Orlando, especially if Carter’s aggressive on offence.

Small forward

Matt Barnes vs. Paul Pierce

Barnes seems to be one of those guys you hardly notice, until he’s being congratulating on a team victory. He’s pesky and tough, can knock down an open shot and the type of relative grinder that all good teams have.

That said, guarding Pierce is no picnic, even if Boston’s all-star didn’t shoot the ball particularly well in the Cleveland series. Pierce has one of the top mid-range games going and he can also stretch defences with three-point shooting.

And it’s not like Pierce should find himself in foul trouble because Barnes isn’t a focal point of the Orlando offence. Pierce could actually get some rest on defence, which will help his offence.

Advantage: Boston by a fair margin.

Power forward

Rashard Lewis vs. Kevin Garnett

Lewis is a power forward in name only; he drifts to the three-point line, likes to finish on the break and really doesn’t have any post-up game to speak of. But what he does is cause big matchup problems by drawing big men away from the basket where his teammate Howard can operate unmolested.

The thing is, if there’s another long, lanky, quick big good enough to step out and guard Lewis, it’s Garnett, who has become rejuvenated in a mightily impressive playoff run so far. And if you thought KG abused Antawn Jamison by posting him up and scoring almost at will, wait to you get a whiff of what he might do to Lewis.

Advantage: Boston but if Lewis knocks down five threes a game, it’s a wash.

Centre

Dwight Howard vs. Kendrick Perkins

There should probably be a third group in this particular matchup: The refs.

Perkins would seem to be big enough and almost strong enough to defend Howard but he’s also got a penchant for fouling and if he’s on the bench a lot, Howard will go nuts scoring.

Of course, Howard’s no shrinking violet in the fouling department either but he seemed to get himself under control in the Atlanta series. Howard’s also got a few more offensive moves now than he’s ever had – a righty hook in the lane is virtually unstoppable – and he’s still a pretty good passer out of the inevitable double-teams.

Advantage: Orlando by a wide margin.

Bench

Jason Williams, JJ Redick, Mickeal Pietrus, Marcin Gortat, Ryan Anderson for Orlando; Tony Allen, Rasheed Wallace, Glen Davis, Michael Finley, Marquis Daniels for Boston.

You want shooters? The Magic has shooters. Almost all of those guys can come off the bench and light you up and Pietrus and Gortat are more than passable defenders, too. It’s one of the big strengths of the Orlando roster, they don’t lose an awful lot when they start subbing guys in.

Not so much for Boston, that’s for sure. Tony Allen did a good job defending LeBron James in the Cleveland series and he can score in transition. Wallace is an enigma, Davis is strong but he’s sure not Dwight Howard strong and he’s foul trouble waiting to happen.

Advantage: Orlando by a wide margin.

Coaching

Stan Van Gundy vs. Doc Rivers.

Both are pretty good at in-game adjustments but the real story here is that both are among the best coaching quotes in the league, it’ll be fun to listen to them.

Doc wins the sartorial contest hands down; Stan’s a million miles ahead when it comes to obvious angst.

Advantage: Even.

And some other stuff to think about and questions to answer in your own minds:

Orlando’s coasted through eight playoff games with nary a worry; how will they handle the first sign of adversity?

Boston’s old, very old, but will they catch a break with three days off between Games 2 and 3? I think they win Game 3, being rested and at home, regardless of where the series is at that point.

Do you want Vince to play for a title? Didn’t think so.

Over and under on technical fouls, combined, per game? How about 1.5. Which side do you like?

Primal screams by KG to get himself fired up? Two per night at least.

Oh, and one quick note to the conspiracy theorists: If the league fixes things, how come it blew another Kobe-LeBron championship series?

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All right, folks, that’s it for today; we’ll be back tomorrow with the same stuff for Lakers-Suns, soon as I figure out who I like in that one.

If you want one last shot at this week’s mailbag (which I hope is a nice Saturday evening on the deck kind of assignment) shoot ‘em off by clicking here and I’ll see what I can do.

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Comments

[Patty]

"Do you want Vince to play for a title? Didn’t think so."
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Good guess. Seeing Carter fail to win a title is one of the few interest points left in these playoffs for Raptor fans and people who love Toronto and Canada. Hopefully, Boston will end his chance at it before it goes any further.

Blogger's note: I love Toronto and Canada and would quite relish Orlando being in the final again

[Kevin]

Hi Doug,

Do we see Garnett on Howard or is that a last resort for both teams?

Blogger's note: Very last resort, I would think

[Matt M]

I wouldn't mind seeing Vince dominate in the final. He's turned out to be quite the nice piece in Orlando. Hard to imagine now that some circles thought that the Magic would regret giving up on Turk for Vinsanity. Orlando has a nice little team going on there. They don't have that second legitimate all star, but a lot of good pieces that fit well together. I think that the Lakers will have a hard time beating them this year.

[Ildefonso O. Medina, Jr.]

If it is a beauty contest comparing both benches, then Orlando wins. Orlando won last year because Garnett did not play period. With Garnett imposing his will in the post and with his medium range jumpers in sync, Howard will cover so much space because Lewis can not guard Garnett. Paul Pierce can freely operate and so will Rondo because Nelson's lateral movement is snail pace. Rondo can post Nelson but Nelson can not post Rondo. An individualistic Carter can not defend and be an offensive threat at the same time. He will be offense only guy. Ray Allen will eat him alive and Tony Allen will make life difficult for him. Last year, without Garnett, Orlando could have blown the Celtics to Kingdom come but the went 7 games even trailing after game 5. They won because Boston lost steam and focus. With Garnett playing, it will be mismatch.

[sportsbabel]

I am not on this particular conspiracy bandwagon, but if one did exist in this case, they didn't "blow" the chance to have a Kobe vs. LeBron final, they hastened his exodus from Cleveland. Short term pain (and not that much, Boston or Dwight Howard picks up enough of the TV slack this year) for HUGE long term gain (LeBron in Chicago or NYC).

[JHP]

I wish Orlando all the best. Should be an interesting series and will show how far off the pace two thirds of the league are. Hopefully home court advantage will help.

[Bill]

Doug, as much as I hate Rondo, I think he has an edge over Nelson at teh PG spot. I thinik that Nelson has played very well in the playoffs and will give Rondo a good matchup, but Rondo has just been better. I would love to see his numbers go down this series and Orlando keep him out of the paint.

As for VC winning a title, I don't even care anymore, all I can do is care about who we do have on the team rigth now.

[www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=612860564]

I'm going for either Lakers or the Suns. I think a Suns vs. Magic Final would be really interesting to watch. High potent offense.

[Patty]

"Blogger's note: I love Toronto and Canada and would quite relish Orlando being in the final again"
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You are also one of Cater's biggest apologists. I hope he pays you well for always covering for him.

Blogger's note: Obviously not enough since I have to keep working.

[Gillian]

You mentioned in your article today about how Orlando and Boston got to where they are, but you incorrectly stated that Boston beat Chicago...that would be Miami correct? Great article nonetheless!

[Rob.V]

You know, this one is almost just too damn difficult to predict!

You bring up a great point. Boston will most likely win game 3 at home... and it's quite possible that they catch the Magic on an off night in game 1 or 2 due to the layoff. If this happens, Boston is up 2-1 which will make it very tough for Orlando to win.

Having said this - The magic have more weapons!!!

Hmm! I think for the first time EVER I'm gonna have to sit on the fence and just enjoy the games.

I will say this though, yes Vince quit on us, yes it was wrong, but I think if he had to do it all over again... he wouldnt have. He's always seemed like a decent human being and with multiple rookie coaches and GM's, along with Peddie making some mistakes back then... MLSE wasn't really helping the situation either.

What I wish for? As much as Boston might be the more interesting story (heart of a champion crap!) I despise, no DESPISE the Lakers (see bryant Kobe - 81).... MUCH more than I could ever be bothered by VC. Say what you will, but Doug was bang on. HWSNBN is a "team" guy... for him to win it in his home town might be quite nice actually.

The Lakers are not a great road team and Orlando has a score to settle so with home court... I think they could beat the Lakers.

Whoever comes out of this series though, pleeeease - Beat L.A!!!. Beat L.A!!!!

[Brian67]

@sportsbabel - Rain on one conspiracy theory and what happens... I love silver linings. Thanks

[Phily]

"Good guess. Seeing Carter fail to win a title is one of the few interest points left in these playoffs for Raptor fans and people who love Toronto and Canada. Hopefully, Boston will end his chance at it before it goes any further."
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Good point @Patty. I hope I live long enough to see him booed as an old man should they ever decide to honour him for some reason.

[WSG]

I’m getting psyched for this series which surprises me a little. Why? ‘Cause I’ve quite enjoyed hating the Celtics over these last couple years ... and I’m not particularly fond of the Magic, either. But ... I found myself cheering (quietly) as the Celtics took out the Cavs this past week - a tiny grudge perhaps, for the Cavs’ shenanigans of that last stretch of the season - and I found myself admiring the grit that the Celtics show up with. So now, I’m hoping the Celtics take out Howard and the Magic (should be a good series) ... and if the sun shines right, it’ll be a Celtics-Suns final for the championship. If that happens, it’ll be ‘go Suns’ ... I think. One day ... maybe the Raps will put it together enough to let us REALLY get into this stage of the playoffs. One day ...

[doug]

you list a lot of valid points in your overview of the Magic-Celts series ...but to me there is always one thing people fail to discuss and that is intangibles, intangibles such as playoff experience, who or what team has the stronger desire to win? leadership etc......to me they matter just as much as all the physical match-ups, coaching decisions etc....to me the biggest intangilbes in this series are...one, the Celts mystique, just as the Habs are doing and players don't even realize it there is the pride as well as the expectations the franchise's history has and it plays a large factor...then to me the second one is this, to a lesser degree then MJ and Kobe in that he isn't going to score 50 in a game is the leadeship of Garnett, the ability he has to poke and prod his teammates to not allow them to quit, to vent , to rage, to focus not only himself but the ones around him...its a big intangible, a immeasurable one....this is a tough series to predict, the Magic will come at the Celts in wave after wave, the Celts will have to pick and choose and accept there will be minutes, quarters, games they are out-manned and not to worry about those just keep focussed on the big picture...which is where Garnett comes in and Celtic pride kicks in...it will go 7 in my opinion, if the Celts have enough gas left they win, if they don't then they won't go down easy ...

[JJ]

I'm guessing Van Gundy comes up with a better plan to slow down KG than Mike Brown did. Certainly couldn't be worse. Orlando-Phoenix is the dream series for me. Lakers-Boston with LA having home court will make me ill.

Doug, I have another one for conspiracy theorists. How could three series be 4-0 sweeps in the last round. That cost the League some cash.

[moe]

Doc Rivers is a better coach than Van Gundy... Come on!!!!!

[GM]

Apropos of nothing (except that I watched it last night), here's a great two-hour documentary on the Sonics and their exodus from Seattle: http://sonicsgate.org/movie/ Someone mentioned here the other day that the Thunder is everyone's second favourite team. Sorry, not mine. While the players might be nice, I can't support a team owned by Clay Bennett (or Michael Heisley). But if you've got two hours, watch that doc. It's quite well done. And there's lots more on the website.

[Joe]

Tough series to call. This is one of those match ups that will be like a heavyweight boxing match going 15 rounds. The magic will be the finese boxer while the Celtics will be the brawler. In the end, success for the Celtics depends not on containing Howard but on containing Orlando's deadly 3 point shooting. To me, you give Howard to Perkins and get everybody else up towards the perimeter to contain Lewis, Nelson and the gang. If you remember the way the Raps played Orlando back in early January, they did the same thing. They let Bargnani go one on one with Howard and made every one else contain the 3 point shooters on the perimeter. The strategy worked very well and I think the Celtics will do much the same. The other key factor is Rondo. If he can get past Nelson and into the paint, his quickness will give Howard fits and probably get him into foul trouble. It will be a tough series but I like the Celtics in 6 or 7 games.

[Dennis]

not sure if this is too late but I read your article on the Phoenix and Los Angeles series, and I give you some props for calling the Suns in 7, not to many people would have predicted that, sticking with your guns.

[Aditya]

12:43


[Comment From Guest Guest : ]
would bebron stay in clevland if joe johnson is brought in ?
Friday May 14, 2010 12:43 Guest
12:44


Doug:
Why? So he can have another great regular season before the new guy disappears in the playoffs?
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Do you ever think Joe Johnson under performed because his coach sucks? and failed to put him and the rest of his teammates in position to succeed in the post season (not the regular season where you could beat up teams cuz of superior talent)

[Aditya]

12:46


Doug:
What's Philly need? PG? Got one. Defensive twos or threes? Got one in Wright. I can see a fit
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Philly needs a PG? I don't think so, Sir. They have Holiday. Do you know how good he is?

[Aditya]

12:52


Doug:
I don't see a decided advantage if Lopez can give the Suns good minutes. A slight advantage to LA because of Gasol's offence but not HUGE
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The series is short, Doug. Trust me or JVG if you rather not trust me.....In case you didn't know, its short because the Lakers are winning (not the Suns)

[JohnW]

What do you say of your predictions and analysis now that the Celtics lead 3-0 :) ?

Blogger's note: Gonna be a dramatic finish to the series? But thanks for reminding me; just e-mail me yours, ok?