And the winners are ...

All right, we’ve got it all set up for what some people are seeing a dream world championships final and we may as well break down the semis right away.

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United States-Lithuania

I have to admit, I’ve kind of come around on the Americans a bit, they seem to be able to just enough of whatever it takes to win and while I’ve still got Luis Scola as my tournament MVP, Kevin Durant has been quite unbelievable. That said, I still wonder if they shoot the ball well enough frequently enough to withstand a really good team, which is what Lithuania is. The key may be their guard play and that’s where I think Chauncey Billups has been invaluable; he just has a certain calm about him. There is that whole thing about size, too.

As you may recall, I saw an awful lot of Lithuania in my week in Izmir and they were awfully impressive. It is, of course, the Linas Kleiza Show most of all and what you should watch for as a Raptor fan is his somewhat surprising ball-handling skills, much better than I recall. And Lithuania made, I think, it’s first eight three-pointers against Argentina and if they shoot like that, well, I don’t know that the Americans can survive. Lithuania also has some size in centre Robertas Javtokas, who really could have a big game.

This one’s almost too close to call.

So I won’t.

Okay, I will.

Lithuania by two.

Turkey-Serbia

There just seems to be a sense of inevitability to this Turkey team, some kind of destiny. They are unbeaten, backed by that rabid crowd you’ve heard so much about and they are, according to people who have seen them more than I did and whose opinions I respect, the best defensive team in the tournament. They seldom give up big runs or many open looks and once they start running, the crowd gets into it and they’re almost unstoppable. For the most part, Your Favourite Hedo has been quite average (20 points in the round-of-16 game was his best by far) but there’s a sneaking suspicion that he’s got a good game in him still.

Serbia? Well, they’re young and unproven and quite the surprise semifinalists in a lot of ways. You have to like guard Milos Teodosic, thought, he’s got big-game written all over him and that huge three to beat Spain was a clutch, clutch shot. Nenad Krstic has been really good but Turkey’s big and young and strong up front, I don’t seem him having that huge an impact.

As I said, there is just a sense that the Turkish team is going to do something special.

I’d say playing for a gold medal is pretty special.

Turkey by eight.

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So I had a little chinwag with some Raptors people yesterday and I’m quite sorry to report there is nothing going on.

Actually, am trying to coast a bit through work so I’m not that sorry but I imagine some of you are.

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Know what’s silly?

Making quarter-final losers at the world championships play games.

Yes, Spain and Slovenia and Russia and Argentina play today with the losers playing tomorrow and the winners playing Sunday, all so they can have some kind of “ranking” of the last eight teams.

Trust me, as a guy who sat through far, far, far too many relegation games following Canada in Toronto, Athens and Indianapolis, the last thing a team that’s been eliminated wants to do is play two more games.

The intensity level is practically non-existent.

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Mail? Yes, please.

I’m thinking mailbag tomorrow and maybe a worlds thing Sunday morning or a mailbag tomorrow and blissful sleep Sunday morning.

Click. Write. Send.

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Speaking of mail, let’s get this one up and out of the bag now.

Q: It's been fun (as available) watching the World Championship games. A combination of TV and internet streaming for me so far, so I feel I've been able to see a somewhat decent cross-section of games.

There have been two things I've enjoyed recently that are different from the NBA game.

First... the officials seem to "let them play". I know the NBA rules and FIBA rules are somewhat different, so it's hard for me (relatively new to FIBA watching) to tell if it's different rules or just different interpretation. Regardless - I've enjoyed it.

And I'm also really enjoying the FIBA ability to knock the ball off the rim. It seems to get everybody more involved._

Kate C, Toronto

A: The whole refereeing thing has been one that’s been a topic of conversation for the entirety of the tournament. I didn’t think it was too bad in Izmir but a couple of people in other cities said it was atrocious.

Yes, they do seem to “let them play” a bit more, lots and lots of moving screens, which I really don’t like because it’s something akin to blocking in football and watch when a guy has screen set on him, he always – ALWAYS – holds the guy rolling to the basket, which is never called and takes away some of the movement that makes the game so good.

As for the goaltending? I kind of like it, too but wonder how it’d translate to the NBA game, where the sheer overall athleticism of the players might make it almost too hard to score inside.

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Remember way back in the day when Super Son dragged his cranky old man to the grappling? Well, it’s back again and so are we. Whoop-dee-damn-doo!

I wonder if Lord Athol Layton will be there?

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Yeah, we’re down a pint or two here today, it’s one of those slow, slow mornings and there’s still a wee bit of jetlag hanging around.

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Comments

[pk]

You know what would be the only 'feel good' story for the Raps this summer? If Lithuania and Turkey advance to finals and Kleiza dominates over Hedo. Come on Doug, I know you would like to see that as well.

[John MacDonald]

Seeing as Linas Kleiza has had such a good tourney do you think if he has a big game against the US and of course his team wins that he might have a shot at being the tourney MVP. I know it doesn't make much difference to him as long as his team wins but it would be nice to have some kind of MVP related to the Raptors.

[pain777pas]

Lithuania by 2? Here is the thing Doug. I'm not familiar with the Lithuanian players however, the US have got some up and comers and legitimate winners in Odom and Billups. These guys especially Billups leadership in the clutch give the US the edge. I wouldn't be suprised to see Turkey (which I think you're right will be in the finals) with the US. Lets be clear Love and Lee will be important in this game. Curry will have to pick it up big and Durant will have to get off early to cause mismatches by getting double teamed or go to the foul line and win the game there. Durant is an excellent one of the best free throw shooters in the game today. In the NBA he either led or was close to the top in attempts and 90% makes or above. Phenomenal! Durant may be the ex-factor and major factor if he can get off in the first two quarters and create at least a 7-10 point lead going into the third. Expect a quick run. Slow the game down and go to the line as late in the clock and as often as possible. What do you think of the strategy?

Blogger's note:I don't think any team should go away from what it usually does

[Angelo]

I don't know about those predictions, I see the US shutting down Lithuania's offence and Serbia outlasting Turkey.

Doug, Jay Triano has a trick shots video from Turkey out there that stunned me! Was he a good player in his day, never got a chance to see him play.

Blogger's note: Good player? Hell, yes

[Peter]

Hey Doug, thanks for the blog.

From what I saw of the Lithuania Argentina game, it was their defence (as well as their lights out shooting from 3 point range) that helped them win. They always seemed to contest shots and not give up any easy looks. They'll need to play defence like that in order to beat the US team. I think it will be an exciting game!

[Pipit]

Wanna get bold Doug predicting Lithuania over US? This will be a massacre by the US squad. Our pathetic Canadian team almost beat these guys and your expecting Lithuania to pull an upset on a US team that is on a roll? Well, you've been mistaken a countless times before and its better be bold since its rewards our far more better than going the conventional way.

[Lorie]

Hi Doug,
So, about these relegation games and the rankings that are determined by them, what do they determine? Anything to do with 2012 in London? What's the real import of finishing, say, 5th rather than 8th? Thanks! (But I'm still going to follow these games: after all, it's just September with pre-season for Raptor fans still a ways off, and this is Basketball That Really Means Something in the World and it's been pretty entertaining, if not absolutely breathtaking at times, to see!)

Blogger's note: They're used mostly for FIBA rankings

[Steve G]

"but there’s a sneaking suspicion that he’s got a good game in him still."

How many times did we hear that last year? About 78 I'd say? On a serious note, Hedo seems to step it up most times in big games, we just never got a chance to see him play any with the Raps.

[doug]

see another case of Canadians not giving their athletes besides hockey players their due...if you ask a typical Canadian was Larry Walker a baseball player and if so was he pretty good...answer would be in all liklihood yes and he was aright..he was dam good a hitting machine...now that reader may be young and in all fairness not familiar with Jay as a player at all...so this is not directed towards him, even when jay was playing he wasn't given much press, ...but he was the backbone of those pretty good Canadian teams and a world class player not a run of the mill type player as Leo was (and i don't mean that disparagingly just that Jay was a far more rounded player then Leo), Jay was a player, skills, smarts, leadership, class guy....

[GM]

Jay was a great player, doug, but Rautins was great, too. Hardly run-of-the-mill. One of the greatest talents to ever come out of this country. I always think of Jay as an Alex English-type player -- smooth, great shooter, not much else. And Rautins was called White Magic for a reason. And one of the youngest ever to play on the national team. (I don't think he should be the coach, but that's a different story.)

And big-case Doug, reffing is atrocious everywhere. It's all a matter of perception. Think of how many times a year you write here that one NBA game or another was inconsistently called or something like that.

[DougG]

"So I had a little chinwag with some Raptors people yesterday and I’m quite sorry to report there is nothing going on."
.
I think that is what I will tell those people who keep bugging me to buy their outrageously priced tickets, nothing going on.

[doug]

I never meant as I said that Leo wasn't a fine player as is aid...but if you ask the average b-ball fan who was the finest player, most would say Leo...but in fact as i said Jay was the more overall rounded player..I remember watching Leo in his Syracuse days and Sixers days...Jay was far more a talent then Leo....Doug should do a top ten list of Canadian players all-time sometime....obviously starting with Nash then after that, interesting...Eli pasquale, Wennington, Fox all good talents would be on it...Leo,Jay...then i would say Anthony,Magliore...

[J]

"Well, you've been mistaken a countless times before and its better be bold since its rewards our far more better than going the conventional way."

I do love how when Doug predicts the favored team to win, scathing posts accuse him of simply picking favorites, and when he picks for an underdog, we get the above. Ever heard of the term "opinion"? There's just no pleasing certain people.

[Aditya]

Lithuania by two
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Haha, make it USA by 17

[dsman]

nothing going on ? if you call heated negotiations on a fair price for Caldy

[GM]

Someone I know and respect and who doesn't dish out compliments very often saw Leo as a high school player and young national team player, and he said he was the best player he's ever seen. And he's seen a lot. I don't think his Sixers days are an indication, except that he actually made an NBA team and Jay didn't. Although Jay was a late draft pick on the Lakers and I believe also was drafted by a CFL team, too. Pat Riley-esque.

[Kate C]

Doh! I forgot the most important that I like the most in FIBA vs NBA. There are considerably fewer game disruptions - less timeouts, less (or no?) commercial breaks. I know the games are 8 minutes shorter, but they can play them in half an hour less time! I'm sure that will never change in North America where television (and let's be honest - TV money) is god, but it's been enjoyable.

[Voislav]

Ah, the advantages of being in Europe for a few more days, I am there until Monday myself. Turkey - Serbia game is interesting because the core players on both teams have been battling each other on different levels of competition since 2003. Serbia has been dominant so far, hasn't lost the game to Turkey, including their encounter in last years Euros. It's also interesting that Turkey is coached by Bogdan Tanjevic, a renowned Serbian (or Bosnian Serb if you want to split hairs) coach.
I do like US over Lithuania simply because US has the size and the athleticism to shut down Lithuanian outside shooting. You want to force Lithuanians into forcing shots and be patient, because their shooting does get streaky.