A new season dawns, and a new era about to begin

Happy First Day Of Summer, everyone.

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Know what I like about the draft?

Everyone’s an expert and nobody’s ever right.

Seriously, it would be a tremendous service to the world at large if someone were to save things year to year and be able to call folks up on the carpet who were, you know, dead wrong about who would get picked where, how good they would and how they’d “fit” with the teams that pick them.

Look, I have no clue whether Brandon Knight will be a better NBA player than Kemba Walker or whether Jonas Valanciunas will turn out to have a bigger impact than Enes Kanter or Bismack Bioyombo and neither do you.

Heck, there isn’t a general manager the NBA who can say with 100 per cent certainty how things are going to turn out in a year, or two years, or four years down the road.

It’s a crapshoot. Injuries happen, kids you think are mature enough to handle the NBA lifestyle and the responsibilities that come with being a pro fall in love with the money and the glamour and become, as Mo Pete used to tell us, fat and happy.

It’s educated guesswork, right from the mock drafts that fascinate so many to the relative physical merits of the teens and early 20-somethings we’re talking about here.

What I do, and what I think most sane, less-egotistical people do, is amass information from a variety of sources and present it as what a team “may” do and why. It’s not rocket science, you have to have trust in the sources that are providing insight and just make common sense out of the information you hear, read and see.

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Hey, did you hear?

Looks like the Raptors are going to hire Dwane Casey as the eighth head coach in franchise history.

Yeah, really.

It was on the interweb so it must be true.

I’m hoping my early afternoon is taken up with some kind of announcement so we can get that story put to bed.

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For all the talk about the draft and the new coach, the most important thing in the NBA takes place today in New York.

It’s another big bargaining session between the league and the union trying to avert a lockout on July 1 and they are so all over the map, no one can say with any certainty what’s going to happen.

But today’s big, all sides agree.

The league came off its stance of making all contracts non-guaranteed – no small move – but there’s still an insistence on a hard cap that’s going to be tough to get past.

I remain convinced a settlement is possible to make sure they don’t miss any games but if they come out of today’s session all grumbly, it’s trouble.

Now, the baseline in these negotiations has been a high degree of pessimism so we have to take that into account but if they rattle the sabres really hard tonight, we’re in for a long summer of discontent.

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Know how I’m always looking for new TV experiences? Well, if this was the only show on the tube, I’d put on the radio.

Basketball Wives LA co-starring Jackie Christie? That’s piece of reality I can do without.

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Here’s one that’s somewhat newsy and if you want to get non-newsy, we can start the mail bag process now if you click, write, send.

Q: HI there Doug! First and foremost, great job as always. Question but not pertaining to the Raptors at this point. I would like to get your opinion about the Raptors Prodigal Son (Vince Carter) being bought out by the Suns.

Do you think he will be signed by another NBA team or will he be another Stephon Marbury or Allen Iverson who has to take their talents across the continent to play ball?

 

Thank you and keep up the good job.

Don F, Scarborough

A: Don’t think too many people were surprised the Suns bought out Vince for $4 million rather than pay him $14 million or so next season but I am certain beyond all doubt that he’ll be in the NBA next season, whenever next season arrives.

The kid’s still got talent and the move to buy him out was strictly a business decision.

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Mighty Rockies 20, Team Formerly Known As The Mighty Yankees 16.

Not exactly a crisp game, we didn’t exactly trot out Drysdale and Gibson, unless you’re talking Milton and Henry but a win’s a win, right?

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This’ll probably be the last shot we take at this subject but you need to read this New Yorker piece on Clarence Clemons if for no other reason that to check out the video at the end.

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So, is there a problem with Jonas Valanciunas, the Lithuanian kid who’s on the Raptors draft list?

Couple of reports last night suggested there might be buyout issues with him; not that he can’t come to the NBA but that 6-11 centre might have to spend one more year in Europe before he can get out of his club deal over there.

If that’s the case, should it preclude the Raptors from drafting him if they’re convinced he’s the right guy?

Nope.

We really have no idea what next season might be like, or even if there’ll be a next full season and if the kid gets to play while others are not, all the better.

I have no idea what kind of game he’s got other than what I read but if he’s their guy, he’s their guy. The HOTH are not liking to challenge for an NBA championship next year, and if he’s good enough, waiting one season isn’t too bad.

That said, I still say they have to take Knight if he’s there, given the alternatives.

It’s really too bad there isn’t a stud three available.

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Speaking of mock drafts, and how I like to mock them, I think our publication schedule has me down to do one for tomorrow’s paper.

That ought to be fun, no?

Figure if I get eight of the 14 lottery picks right, I’m a winner. And I presume you’ll have your scorecards out.

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Comments

[Big Ragu]

Doug, Agree with you that Knight should be the guy for the Raps but since he's going #3 to Utah it really is a moot point. Remember when Colangelo said shortly after the lottery that dropping from # to #5 wasn't that bad and you might be able to get the same player you would get at #3 at #5 this year and save some cap money? Ummm no.

Blogger's note: Unless Utah takes Kanter

[John]

Hey Doug, I can’t agree more about the Mock drafts that are out there, especially this year and especially after you get past the first two, which of course seems set in stone so it will probably change... Anyone who thinks they are an expert has to show me on their list where the Raps ended up with Ed Davis.
On another note, I asked this a couple weeks ago, but didn't get a response and so will try again... Talking with the other scribes during the Finals, there must have been some talk as to where the league and players will come to an agreement on the hard cap or even the salary cap. The league is talking 45Million hard cap, was there any consensus or guesstimate in the group of where the cap will end up or what amount the deal will be done at?

Blogger's note: There really wasn't; was more of talk about the percentage split, 50-50 might work

[Rob.V]

I agree. If the big V is their guy at # 5 you take him... and wait!
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I couldn't get in yesterday however all the angst surrounding Kemba Walker was perplexing. Barea, Chalmers, other... TJ Ford. There are going to be quite a few PG's available this summer on the FA maket so if they are not enamoured with Walker (as your franchise PG of the future)... why bother?
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Also of note: we already have (2) point guards... (1) of which is still just in the infant stages of his "development". So unless they view Kemba as that franchise guy, he doesnt really make sense for us.. does he?.
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I of course do not have inside information on this however BC did tell me he was really high on Derrick Williams so is there a possible move to #2?
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Probably cannot get that high so logic would dictate that Colangelo may very well trade this pick anyway because his guy is simply not going to be there.
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Look, Brandon night and Kanter will probably be off the board at 5 so unless they are in love with Vesely or the big V (and are willing to wait) I can see Colangelo moving this pick for a vet... or at the very least moving back in the draft.
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There simply may not be a significant amount of talent available (which would be an upgrade over what they already have in those positions) to keep the player they draft.
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In short. It's still very likely that the draft Kemba... but it may be for some "other" team... not the Raptors.
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Just my opinion.

[Lee Z]

"What I do, and what I think most sane, less-egotistical people do, is amass information from a variety of sources and present it as what a team “may” do and why. It’s not rocket science, you have to have trust in the sources that are providing insight and just make common sense out of the information you hear, read and see."
Well, this simply won't do, Doug. How DARE you take such a sensible, reasoned approach! If we wanted a sensible, reasoned approach, we'd dig up Cronkite from his grave and have him run this blog. No, we want RUMOURS! We want misinformation! We want...yes, that's right: FOX NEWS! Doug, any truth to the internet rumour that the last two years of your contract are being bought out for $4 million and you're being replaced by Glen Beck?

Blogger's note: I wouldn't settle for $4 million

[Matt M]

Mock draft tomorrow? You should play with Raptor fans minds and put Walker ahead of Knight! Maybe even second or third. I know I would enjoy watching your comments page explode.

[Mike]

IF Valanciunas is their guy, I don't think his upside warrants the downside of waiting a year. It seems there's little consensus among "experts" as to where Valanciunas fits in the pecking order of the talent thought to be available at the #5 pick, so there may not be much upside to picking him over, say, Walker or Kanter or Leonard, with the potential downside of limiting who you might trade for or draft during that year (or two years, e.g. Rubio) because you're "holding" a spot for him. Unless they think his talent and potential is being severely undervalued then I don't think they should take the risk. If Valanciunas falls to say, # 8 or #9 then those teams picking there would probably see enough upside that outweighs the downside.

[Nick M]

NBA TV, if that is what they still call it, is airing an 'inside college basketball draft special' which I am sure will be aired 10 plus times. In it is a bio/profile on Kawhi Leonard. I did not see him play but once, so I am not sure of his basketball abilities except for what I've read on draft boards. But the Raps could do much worse then him at the 5 pick. His life has made him mature beyond his years and given him a different perspective on life then just basketball. Mentally this man/child is tough and a very likeable person. As a Raps fan I could definitely see myself cheering for this guy.

[Chooch Peters]

Hi Doug...
I haven't read anyone on here who claims they have the draft answers, but I dont read this every single day. I do agree, that for the most part so many different things happen leading up to or at the draft that usually beyond the first two picks every year - it is hard to determine. But it's fun! I think the fans get an understanding of the 3-4 picks the Raps are interested in and ge to learn more about some unknown players who futures are in teh NBA. Keep in mind your on the internet and use it as a major medium to conduct your work. Your kinda saying "hahaha - internet people have no crediablity and are usually wrong, yet your main audience is through internet. But I guess your right though, the interweb cannot be trusted as factual reports cause if I do beleive it correctly (HoopsHype, Real Gm and Rotoworld) all claim Vince is owed 18 million!...not 14!
I look forward to your predictions just like I do many others on the internet. My Top 5 are (assuming no trades happen):
1. Irving
2. Williams
3. Knight
4. Kanter (if it wasn't for his conract I would have "Big V" here instead).
5. Vasely

All the Best!

[J.r]

Are the raps looking to sign any vets this off season? Can you imagine B.C brought back Vince too come off the bench ? that would be crazy ! Hope it does not happen, but we do need vet help and he is a guy who could play the 3 spot

[Peter]

Isn't your team the Mighty Rockies, AND the team "formerly" known as the Mighty Yankees?

Blogger's note: Enough of a roster turnover to be a separate entity

[Chooch Peters]

"I’m hoping my early afternoon is taken up with some kind of announcement so we can get that story put to bed."
At 8:26 am this morning Stephen Brotherson had a written article on Hoopshype stating that the media has been invited to a meeting by the Raptors at the ACC @ 1pm this afternoon. So he obviously learned about the invite before 8:00 am. Not sure what time this morning yr article went out online for preview and judging (from your comment only), you must have missed the invite, no? Because you say that "hope the early afternoon is taken up by some annoucment"....if you had been invited already I'm only most certain you would have announced the Raptors meeting and media invatation, yes!?!

[Lorie]

@Lee Z:
Hilarious! We don't want it right; We Want It Right Now!!! And I heard it was Ann Coulter AND Glen Beck, $6 million and a seat in the Senate.
And Doug - thank you for more Clarence Clemons. Please don't feel you have to stop those tributes anytime soon. Cheers.

[Dave]

Morning Doug.

I think the surprise of this draft is that nobody knows what Cleveland will do. There is no gaurantee that they will take Irving. They may take a big guy like Kanter or Williams and pick up a point guard with the number 4 pick. That would be relatively safe for them because there doesn't seem to be a big difference in the top 3 or 4 point guards. This way they could ensure they get their big guy instead of taking a chance of him being there at number 4.

With that scenario Utah could get Irving. "That is why they play the games".

It will be fun to watch on Thursday. There will definitely be surprises with the selections and ensuing trades.

[Lee Z]

Ahhhhh, Ann Coulter. What is it about reactionary fascistic blonde Republicans that leaves progressives like me all hot and bothered?

[Nitin]

Hey Doug. Love the blog and insight you bring to basketball in Toronto. Question: Who is the raptors future point guard? After jose, I don't think Bayless is championship caliber. That's why I say even if Knight is taken you take Kemba Walker and move on going forward with derozan and walker backcourt. When derozan thinks about his future with the raptors and signing long term, I think kemba walker or knight make him want to stay more here than a euro would. Personal opinion. Thoughts Doug?

Blogger's note: Than a Euro would? Sorry lost me there. And if a guard can play, doesn't matter if he's from Mars

[Jason]

Ok, so I've read the blog a few times and I've seen "HOTH" a few times. Can someone please tell me what that stands for or what it means?

Blogger's note: Heroes Of The Hardcourt

[Lorie]

@Lee Z: Reactionary? Yes. Fascistic? Oh yeah...but is that a word? Republican? Natch. But, that blonde look? Now, that's fake. Definitely not the real deal. And not even a good fake job. Harrump. And I hear she's no longer doing appearances in Kansas. Something about falling houses... Cheers! Big Socialist Democratic Progressive Liberal Ones!

[Matty-Pix]

Polish off the cat scratch, we want all the details from the ACC!

Hope to hear some probing draft questions at the press conference :)

Blogger's note: Don't listen too hard, it's a rookie mistake to ask your "A" questions out loud

[Johnn19]

Colangelo announcement @ 1pm today will be streamed live on Raptors.com

[Nick M]

Maybe Riles can convince Vince to sign with the Heat for the Vets Minimum. I'm sure he would fit right in with the Heat's offense??? Another ball dominator who believes 'the game' owes him something and checks out when it doesn't pay up. And, as Riles continues to build the perfect team, someone mentioned TJ Ford is available to fill that hole at the PG.

[Mike D.]

Doug, all I'm going to say is that if your mock draft mentions Knight being picked ahead of Walker because of his superior size, I'm cancelling my subscription.

Oh wait a minute.....I read your blog and articles on line. Without a subscription. On a computer the company paid for. When I'm supposed to be working. Sheesh, technology has made it really difficult to make a decent symbolic gesture.

[The J]

Lee Z - Glenn Beck running this Blog? Not Thanks, I don't think he would fit. Knowing him he would just do his usual crying and whinning thing. He'd probably be constantly complaining about the state of affairs at MLSE. He'd probably question every decision made by the GM. Then he'd call out players on the roster. He'd go on and on about our European players, and how soft they were and how they couldn't play defense. He'd complain that this team has no direction, and would whine constantly about the organization not spending money the right way. You know what he would be.....well, pretty much half the people who post on this blog. Okay, I take it back, he'd fit in just fine.

@Nick M. - Vince and Bosh back on the same team, with LeBron? Man there would be a lot of people going hoarse at the ACC when that team arrives in town. Only way to make things worse would be if they traded for Hedo and we sent them Bargnani.

[uncalum]

Funnest part of the draft is all the speculation over what will happen. In that spirit, just read this in Steve Aschburner's column on NBA.com: "According to chatter in Minnesota, the Wolves have been dangling the No. 2 pick in hopes of landing a proven player such as Lakers forward Pau Gasol, who would be a nifty Spanish buddy for Rubio. Or they could swap it for a player and a pick later in the lottery, with Toronto (No. 5 and DeMar DeRozan) and Washington (No. 6 and JaVale McGee) floating among the rumors." Try as I might, I cannot even fathom TO making that trade, and I'm no huge DeRozan fan. This currently makes the top of my crazy draft rumour list.

[The J]

I just finished reading the article on the main Sports page where it says ESPN has ranked Toronto as the worst sports town. My first instinct was anger: of course they are picking on the Canadian City and the most hated one at that (by the rest of the country). But then I read the basis for the ranking:

"The standings purport to rank each professional sports team in North America according to a weighted average that takes into account team performance versus the amount of money fans spend on games, the quality of venue, how easy it is to like the players, the honesty, openness and loyalty of management, the strength of coaching, and championship records and prospects for the future."

Hmm....Sounds about right. Brian Burke and Cathal Kelly can try to defend this city but the truth is, they are right. It's not the fans, it's the teams and the organizations, and we sure aren't getting much "bang for our buck".

Here is the full list if you are interested:
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/teamrankings
That's where you can see the Raptors and Leafs ranked 116 and 120th on a list of 122 teams!

[GM]

Mock drafts aren't to be taken seriously. It's a game. You try to get as many right as possible but it's kinda like playing the lottery. Fans like reading them and then debating them. Don't feel like everything here needs to be completely factual. Opinion and conjecture is good, too, if it's not presented as fact.