A new season dawns, and a new era about to begin

Happy First Day Of Summer, everyone.

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Know what I like about the draft?

Everyone’s an expert and nobody’s ever right.

Seriously, it would be a tremendous service to the world at large if someone were to save things year to year and be able to call folks up on the carpet who were, you know, dead wrong about who would get picked where, how good they would and how they’d “fit” with the teams that pick them.

Look, I have no clue whether Brandon Knight will be a better NBA player than Kemba Walker or whether Jonas Valanciunas will turn out to have a bigger impact than Enes Kanter or Bismack Bioyombo and neither do you.

Heck, there isn’t a general manager the NBA who can say with 100 per cent certainty how things are going to turn out in a year, or two years, or four years down the road.

It’s a crapshoot. Injuries happen, kids you think are mature enough to handle the NBA lifestyle and the responsibilities that come with being a pro fall in love with the money and the glamour and become, as Mo Pete used to tell us, fat and happy.

It’s educated guesswork, right from the mock drafts that fascinate so many to the relative physical merits of the teens and early 20-somethings we’re talking about here.

What I do, and what I think most sane, less-egotistical people do, is amass information from a variety of sources and present it as what a team “may” do and why. It’s not rocket science, you have to have trust in the sources that are providing insight and just make common sense out of the information you hear, read and see.

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Hey, did you hear?

Looks like the Raptors are going to hire Dwane Casey as the eighth head coach in franchise history.

Yeah, really.

It was on the interweb so it must be true.

I’m hoping my early afternoon is taken up with some kind of announcement so we can get that story put to bed.

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For all the talk about the draft and the new coach, the most important thing in the NBA takes place today in New York.

It’s another big bargaining session between the league and the union trying to avert a lockout on July 1 and they are so all over the map, no one can say with any certainty what’s going to happen.

But today’s big, all sides agree.

The league came off its stance of making all contracts non-guaranteed – no small move – but there’s still an insistence on a hard cap that’s going to be tough to get past.

I remain convinced a settlement is possible to make sure they don’t miss any games but if they come out of today’s session all grumbly, it’s trouble.

Now, the baseline in these negotiations has been a high degree of pessimism so we have to take that into account but if they rattle the sabres really hard tonight, we’re in for a long summer of discontent.

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Know how I’m always looking for new TV experiences? Well, if this was the only show on the tube, I’d put on the radio.

Basketball Wives LA co-starring Jackie Christie? That’s piece of reality I can do without.

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Here’s one that’s somewhat newsy and if you want to get non-newsy, we can start the mail bag process now if you click, write, send.

Q: HI there Doug! First and foremost, great job as always. Question but not pertaining to the Raptors at this point. I would like to get your opinion about the Raptors Prodigal Son (Vince Carter) being bought out by the Suns.

Do you think he will be signed by another NBA team or will he be another Stephon Marbury or Allen Iverson who has to take their talents across the continent to play ball?

 

Thank you and keep up the good job.

Don F, Scarborough

A: Don’t think too many people were surprised the Suns bought out Vince for $4 million rather than pay him $14 million or so next season but I am certain beyond all doubt that he’ll be in the NBA next season, whenever next season arrives.

The kid’s still got talent and the move to buy him out was strictly a business decision.

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Mighty Rockies 20, Team Formerly Known As The Mighty Yankees 16.

Not exactly a crisp game, we didn’t exactly trot out Drysdale and Gibson, unless you’re talking Milton and Henry but a win’s a win, right?

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This’ll probably be the last shot we take at this subject but you need to read this New Yorker piece on Clarence Clemons if for no other reason that to check out the video at the end.

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So, is there a problem with Jonas Valanciunas, the Lithuanian kid who’s on the Raptors draft list?

Couple of reports last night suggested there might be buyout issues with him; not that he can’t come to the NBA but that 6-11 centre might have to spend one more year in Europe before he can get out of his club deal over there.

If that’s the case, should it preclude the Raptors from drafting him if they’re convinced he’s the right guy?

Nope.

We really have no idea what next season might be like, or even if there’ll be a next full season and if the kid gets to play while others are not, all the better.

I have no idea what kind of game he’s got other than what I read but if he’s their guy, he’s their guy. The HOTH are not liking to challenge for an NBA championship next year, and if he’s good enough, waiting one season isn’t too bad.

That said, I still say they have to take Knight if he’s there, given the alternatives.

It’s really too bad there isn’t a stud three available.

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Speaking of mock drafts, and how I like to mock them, I think our publication schedule has me down to do one for tomorrow’s paper.

That ought to be fun, no?

Figure if I get eight of the 14 lottery picks right, I’m a winner. And I presume you’ll have your scorecards out.

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Comments

[Dan Kipfer]

What you say about no one knowing for sure is not exactly true. I kew that "Hoffa" was a disaster. Ask my wife, she could hear me swearing. Is Rob Babcock still employed in the NBA and if so why?

[Stephen]

Just wondering what the terms of the Casey contract are? i did not hear it asked by anyone in the media, nor did Bryan announce it......

It would be interesting to hear if its a longer term contract then BC's current one, or if it is a 2 year with an option for a third....

Any clues?

Blogger's note: None yet, gimme a few days

[doug]

I have 2 words to say about draft boards, and about these so-called "experts", plus combines, pre-draft workouts etc....those 2 words are Tom Brady...drafted #199th overall in the 6th round and he became I'd say more then just a "serviceable" player....so announcement is official we got a defensive coach, I hope he also knows how to coach offense or let his players it, no coach has ever won playing just end of the floor...and did anyone stop and think that maybe just maybe the Mavs D improved so much as they added Chandler?/..exactly the type of guy we need in the middle, oh wait never mind BC knows that..as he tried...and as a aside from b-ball if i see another Jay square up to bunt with no out and the game in just the early innings then i am sorry, I am not responsible for my remote's health...John Farrell is a "defensive" manager who has no feel or intuition for offense, tell Alex A and John to turn off their computers for a second and just try coaching out of instinct and a gut feeling...let your players play the game...

[Andre W]

I agree with Mike D ... I believe due to his body of work Kemba Walker is a clear favourite over Knight.... you don't championships on potential.....

[Eric M]

I like Triano, but isn't keeping him in the organization somewhat awkward? I mean, it's like Colangelo saying, here meet Dwane...we think he is going to do a better job then you did, especially defensively. I know these guys are supposed to be "professional" but it seems like an awkward situation between Colangelo-Triano, and Triano-Casey. What role does Triano have..consultant...?

Blogger's note: Yep. A resource in the organization

[kazbid]

Kemba! Kemba!

if knight is available at 5..i assume BC will pick him
but otherwise it's gotta be Kemba!

we dont need an athletic wing who may develop offense later (see joey graham)
or more "versatile" bigs (see bargnani)
not bashing the picks in hindsight..i know why BC picked those guys when he did..but now we need a PG...both of ours are career backups

and kemba is nuts! you guys see the last 2 tournaments he played in? he won them. with a team that wasn't even considered a contender for either

[Matty-Pix]

Colangelo mentioned addressing some draft questions later, maybe in the scrums. Anything of note? Obviously he wouldn't tip his hand, but maybe he mentioned a few prospects?

Blogger's note: The four we've been reporting for days are at the top of the list: Knight, Valanciunas, Leonard, Biyombo

[J]

Shame on you, Doug, for wanting to report only credible... oh wait, LeeZ already said it. Damn you Leez!

But seriously, I always wonder why the people ragging on you for not jumping the gun more continue to read this blog. It should be clear by now that you are only interested in reporting actual news and there are a myriad of other sites for those interested in non-news. When I want to read rumor, I'll go to hoopshype.com and read their rumor section. I don't need my entire day full of crazy.

Forget keeping track of draft predictions; how about we keep track of every rumor published or repeated on the 'net? More often than not the rumors don't come true or are completely fabricated, but all people remember is when someone gets it right. Even a broken clock gets it right twice a day, and when you have not only every broken clock Dick and Jane's sports blog, but thousands of fans as well, writing things like "you heard it here first" followed by gloating when right and a disappearance act laced with amnesia when wrong... well, you get the picture. Even better is when they respond with stuff like "I'm flattered you bothered to dig up what I said long ago"... if you're going to predict something with so much certainty, at least own up to what you said, sheesh!

You said there would be no announcement yesterday and it appears you were right. Where are all the people writing in to apologize?

[Kawhi]

I'm ashamed of the Raptors and the BS that follows the team. Short of a miracle, nothing will ever change. The fact it appears the Raptors are proactively greasing the wheels and making a public plea to lower expectations for Thursday night is troubling. The draft is not strictly a crapshoot, as some would suggest. The best players are typically ranked/selected higher than the worst and this is not a coincidence. The fact there are exceptions to this rule does not render it an absolute crapshoot. What's more, if recent reports are valid and the Raptors don't have the pieces to attract a team like Minnesota or Utah, one of the following must be true: either the Toronto 'assets' are not nearly as valuable as Mr. Colangelo would have us believe, or Toronto is simply unwilling to pony up. Either one leaves a bad taste in my mouth what with the embarrassing season(s) we most recently endured.
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I find it painful to consider that this team might be (who am I kidding, probably is) more willing to let the Bosh trade exception expire than use it to shoulder some of Minnesota's ugly payroll (like Webster, Milicic or Ridnour, for example) in exchange for swapping lotto positions. I find it painful that we appear willing to settle- again- for leftovers when ours is a team that just finished with 60 losses and is in dire need of major help. But I find it most painful that we're willing to sit on our laurels simply because WE CAN. As a fan I find myself deeply discouraged because I see no light at the end of this tunnel.

Blogger's note: Ah, miracles happen. Don't be so discouraged :)

[Eddy]

Kawhi why do you think Toronto rates as the worst sports city in America, other than at making money?

[doug]

I may be wrong...but sometimes I realize reading between the lines is more important then the words themselves...with this hiring of Casey there is no way Kemba is even in the picture, I would say Leonard, as if defense is the philosophy BC has to prove he means it...unless if he drafts a PG then Jose is as good as gone,but Kemba defensively is weak...it all depends on the moves and picks of the first 4 ...but defense is the new mantra and Barg's,DD aren't going anywhere...even to get the 2nd pick for Williams as how is that a upgrade??..

[J]

@kazbid:

So why did BC pick Graham back in 2005? I'm itching to know.

Just teasing!

[DH]

Johnn19 - funny yet interesting comments. I said the same thing to my brother yesterday when news came of VC being bought out. The Raptors have a guaranteed sellout coming to boo the Heat if that happens.

[doug]

well I just saw Casey's press conference and I must say he was impressive, and seems to understand that offense and defense have to have a balance ...he talks impressively...and seems to have grown not only from his T-Wolves experience but from his Mavs experience...so far a good hire, seems to be a stand-up passionate guy ...so it is what it is...the assistant hires will be interesting as they will show whether he recognizes his weaknesses ....what he said about "embarrassing players" was pretty good, Sam never got that, and why he will never get a head coaching job again, he attacked players pride, as a coach you can never ever do that and why BC got rid of him I was embarrassed to watch Sam ...treat men as men and they will return the same not rocket science...

[MJ Walk]

@ Lee Z----Your first paragraph was well written and than you fell into the same category as the posters you were attempting to discredit. I do not care about your political views or your views on the various news networks. The people who post on this site have a right to state their "Basketball" opinions and whether or not they turn out to be right or wrong really has little or no bearing on anything. The last time I checked this was a Basketball site and not some form of "face page".

Blogger's note: Nah, we're sooooo much more than just basketball.