Maybe the conspiracy is there's no NBA conspiracy

Let’s say you run a multi-billion dollar business that’s growing every day; your brand is recognizable at all four corners of the Earth; your products make money for you and themselves hand over fist.

Of course you’re going to jeopardize it by trying to pull off some gigantic conspiracy.

Why not risk losing it all, hoping that whoever’s in the Circle Of Knowledge won’t talk and the secret will go to several graves with those who hold it.

Come on, people.

Give your heads a shake, would you?

The basketball world – especially the dark corners where the conspiracy theorists live – has been abuzz with all kinds of zaniness following the New Orleans win in Wednesday’s lottery (some of have mocked them already) and it’s kind of out of control.

Comical. But out of control nonetheless.

Look, as I mentioned this morning, I’ve been in the room when the lottery’s been conducted. Seen the ping-pongs balls taken out of their locked cases and dumped in the drums, watched them pop up, seen the stifling security that goes along with it. It’s not “fixable” and it can’t be “rigged.” It is, frankly, what it is.

And here’s a first-hand account of last night you might want to read.

While all that was transpiring in a room a floor removed from the TV studio where the show came from, I was standing in the back of that studio minding my own business and joking with some colleagues.

All of a sudden a back door opens, a couple of rather burly, imposing fellows wearing earpieces walked by flanking a very studious man carrying the envelopes. They were place on the podium, everyone was watching, the security dudes were still hanging around and I don’t recall seeing David Copperfield magically levitating New Orleans to No. 1.

I once heard David Stern suggest, in response to some question about the rigging of the lottery, suggest his league wasn’t in the business of committing felonies.

Makes entire sense to me.

Look, it doesn’t matter what I say or what other people write or what the league does. There are those among you who will think forever that some grand conspiracy is constantly at work, that things are pre-ordained because it’s easy to think that.

Forget for a minute that you’ve had to count on the continued silence of who knows how many people to rig something like the lottery – and a good conspiracy needs a very small circle and the more in it, the easier it’s broken – think about that risk.

You want to put the entire global basketball world at risk so that one team can get one specific player?

Besides, if it worked, how come the Cleveland Cavaliers didn’t win multiple championships after getting LeBron? How’d the whole Patrick-Ewing-to-New-York thing work out in the winning of championships?

If these have been rigged, they’ve been awfully poorly executed, haven’t they?

I had more than a few people who asked this morning why the league doesn’t just run the lottery where all can see it.

Well, there are a few reasons, actually.

First, it takes about 90 seconds to actually conduct it and what do you do with the other 28:30 of the half hour TV show?

Second, it’s boring. I mean mind-numbing boring; it’s not like Faye Dance could take you through the little burgs where it’s being held telling folksy Wintario tales.

And third – and most important – is this:

What would the conspiracy theorists have to talk about when it was over?

Have a nice day.

 

 

 

 

Comments

[Tim H.]

Hey Doug:
"And here’s a first-hand account of last night you might want to read."

If memory serves (and it's serving less and less often these days!) there were similar posts in your blog the year that you were in 'the room.' It would be interesting to compare your blog to the SI article to see the similarities.

Blogger's note: Was trying to find it.

[Steve]

New Orleans had the 3rd highest chance of getting #1 when you include the fact they effectively had two sets of entries. No conspiracy required here folks.

Always entertaining to read the reasons that Stern has rigged the draft "this time" each and every year regardless of who wins. Let's face it if Brooklyn had won (and thus gotten to keep their pick) the same thing would have been said, same with the Warriors although they ended up keeping their pick anyway, etc etc.

[Kane]

Just because people believe in fixing games or blowing blatant calls doesn't mean they think it's a conspiracy. Who said that? Not me! But do I think this 'multi-billion dollar business' (as you say) can arrange it so certain teams win? Of course it can!

It's only 'conspiracy theorists' that believe in fixing games isn't it? Because that NEVER happens in pro-sports... oh wait, there have been many investigations into players, refs and organizations (and in the Olympics case countries) all over the world that have been deemed guilty? Well that would NEVER happen in the NBA! What was I thinking? It would certainly not happen in the most popular sport in the world futball/ soccer.... oh wait...

You talk about Ewing to NYK, but you can't force them to play and win. Players still need to perform (see LeBron in last years playoffs). But isn't it weird how Cleveland loses LeBron but then gets Kyrie Irving, now NOLA loses CP3 and gets the #1 pick. And this is just the last two years. I am SURE that Stern wanted Toronto to do well when they got their picks, but alas, sometimes poor management gets the better of a franchise. As I am sure you are well aware.

[m]

"First, it takes about 90 seconds to actually conduct it and what do you do with the other 28:30 of the half hour TV show?"
How about not having it on TV?

[Bob Wesley]

Hey Doug,Raptors should take Kendall Marshall.If he never got hurt North Carorlina would of went farther in March Madness!Dud was right Hoffa at 8th 2004 BYU.So many good players after him!

[Allen Ford]

You're absolutely right, Doug. Why would successful professional sports organizations ever doing anything stupid? It doesn't make any sense.

I mean just look at what is going on in Italian soccer...err...I mean baseball with steroids...ahhh....I mean baseball colluding about free agency...errr...the NFL with concussions...ahhh....Olympic vote scandals....

Oh, never mind!

[zoom]

The NBA could end all the lottery conspiracy theories by actually televising the draw. Don't tell me they don't it's because it would make for bad TV - the lottery show couldn't get any worse.

[joe]

actually they COULD put it on tv. just have the usual 28 minutes of whatever they do in the program (i've never actually seen the draft lottery show before) but use the secret ping pong footage as the "reveal" of who gets which picks.

[Mos High]

I agree why not broadcast the draw. The only real conspiracy was the year Toronto and Vancouver came into the league and they werent allowed to get the #1 draft pick (who ended up being iverson).

New Orleans deserves the #1 pick as they actually tried hard (not like charlotte) and NBA screwed around with that inital Chris Paul deal.

No conspiracy but things fell correctly in place.

[GM]

Maybe there’s no conspiracy. Then again, maybe there is. It’s not as if conspiracies never happen in the real world (http://www.cracked.com/article_15974_7-insane-conspiracies-that-actually-happened.html and http://www.cracked.com/article_18955_6-crackpot-conspiracy-theories-that-actually-happened.html ). It’s just as coo-coo and krazy to say no conspiracies exist as it is to say everything’s a conspiracy. But just as in politics, big business and the courtroom, you have to not only be free from actual conflict of interest, you have to also be free from the *perception* of conflict of interest. Judges recuse themselves from cases because they have a relationship (real or perceived) with the accused or one of the lawyers. So no matter if this was a real conspiracy or not, the NBA deserves whatever scorn is being heaped on it.

They’ve wanted to keep a team in New Orleans come hell or, ahem, high water while letting other teams move around willy nilly. They go so far as to take ownership of the team and meddle in trades, and finally manage to convince a local owner to take ownership of them despite years of balking at such an idea. Of course it’s going to look like a conspiracy.

How exactly is it risking your multi-billion dollar industry to engage in a conspiracy? When you get that big, you feel invincible. It’s precisely because it’s so big that it would feel they could pull it off: fans are diehard. No matter how it’s orchestrated, the players are still the best in the world. People will always watch. Doesn’t mean it’s not a conspiracy.

Again, I want to stress that I’m not saying it’s a done deal. I’m just saying it’s possible, and is not as easily discounted as you say. If you can imagine any way the league might be able to pull the wool over the eyes of sequestered reporters, then it’s possible. Do the reporters examine the machine beforehand? Do they handle all the ping-pong balls? Do burly guys with earpieces really mean anything?

Stern’s answer to a direct question about rigging the lottery is a vague answer about not in the business of committing felonies. Nice non-answer. Of course that’s not their business. But that doesn’t mean they don’t commit them.

Yes, the more people who know about something, the more chance of leaks. But how many people need to know? Companies and governments and reality television contestants are able to keep things secret under threat of financial penalty. It’s conceivable that the inverse is true: promise of financial gain and the very real probability that they will lose their jobs and cook the golden goose.

It’s not all about winning championships, either, so it matters not how many trophies Cleveland or New York won. As the saying goes, it’s all about the Benjamins. New York, a prime NBA market, was revived for years under Ewing. If they had won championships, that would just be icing on the cake.

Finally, your reasons for why the thing isn’t conducted live don’t really hold up. So what if it takes 90 seconds? They know how to fill time. Pre-game shows have less to work with and they manage to fill the time. There are interviews, previews, background on each team. The professional TV people work with a lot less. The way they do it now, just pulling the teams’ cards from envelopes takes only a few minutes. Lotteries worth millions are done live on TV. There’s just no reason not to do it live, considering the grief it causes.

So was it a conspiracy? That’s a loaded word. But we’ll most likely never know. Does it look and smell like a conspiracy? Yup. And that’s all that matters. Perception is reality.

Although I'm always happy when the worst team doesn't win it all. Tanking doesn't always work. Play hard and play to win and let the chips fall where they may.

[Brad B.]

"First, it takes about 90 seconds to actually conduct it and what do you do with the other 28:30 of the half hour TV show?"

Well, wasn't that what they did with LeBron's 'Decision'? It's all about the build-up. Marketing agencies can make anything interesting if they get enough money, and people are usually bored enough that they'll watch anything..

[jeff]

I think the Raptors should try to trade the 8th pick for houstons 14 and 16th pick, and then use those two picks to get Lamb, and either Marshall, Lillard, or Rivers depending on who is left at that spot. It might make the raptors young but any combination of those two picks would increase the talent level on this team.

[J]

"The NBA could end all the lottery conspiracy theories by actually televising the draw."

No, that wouldn't end anything. The NBA already invites a select group of people to watch the proceedings, including our own Doug Smith. If he says nothing improper occurred on the surface, I'm inclined to believe him. What difference would televising the draw make? If there's rigging, it would have to be the machines/balls themselves. Oh, I know, let's make it a six-part series commissioned by a bipartisan committee detailing the construction, delivery and analysis of every bit component used to conduct the draft. Somehow, I'm sure we would still have conspiracy theorists. As long as someone, somewhere, didn't TiVo the six-parter, there will be disbelief.

If there's a conspiracy, it's the conspiracy of the uneducated masses to turn a ~13% chance of winning into 0%, and 25% chance of winning into 100%. Sadly, that's not how mathematics works. Give this a try if it escapes understanding (kids, don't try this at home): take a 6 shot pistol, load one live bullet, give the thing a spin and fire it into your main hand. Even though you have a 83.3% chance of escaping uninjured, a good number of you won't be typing for a while, and no, I didn't rig your pistol.

My only beef with the NBA was that it put itself in this position to begin with. Anyone who has ever participated in a fantasy league knows that the commissioner can't win or there will be the appearance of impropriety.

[jason]

also 9-11 was an inside job, USAF back-engineering Roswell craft and Bigfoot is an interdimensional traveller.