Of Orlando, the Lakers, the Royals (the real ones) and great, great TV

The first reaction from the first league person I talked to after word first broke that Stan Van Gundy and Otis Smith were out in Orlando yesterday was pretty succinct:

“You can’t be surprised.”

Oh, no. There was no surprise at all that Stan had been fired and Smith had “parted ways” with the Magic but, as I said in my original note to a couple people:

“Sometimes this league sucks.”

I don’t think there’s any argument to be made about the Magic being a dysfunctional organization this year but that’s pretty much all on Dwight Howard, I’d suggest; the big centre’s willingness to leak his dissatisfaction with his coach and the organization and his team, his waffling on “trade me, don’t trade me, I’ll sign here, I won’t sign here” ruined what might have been a pretty good season and seeing how the Eastern Conference playoffs have turned out, a fully functional Orlando team coached by a guy with an outstanding track record might have looked pretty good right about now, wouldn’t it?

Van Gundy will unquestionably go down as one of, if not the, best coach in franchise history and it’s hard to imagine that Howard, who still leaves me wanting more from him despite his dizzying array of skills, will ever play for a better coach.

And it is the measure of the man that he simply got tired of putting up with the bullpoop late in the season, his decision that fateful shootaround to confirm that he’d been told Howard wanted out probably sealed his fate but I bet if you asked 29 other coaches to be totally honest, they would have applauded what he did because he had to be entirely fed up with the whole mess.

It is to his credit that he did it.

And all Smith did was try to do what every GM worth his cell phone does, try to massage a somewhat flawed roster and make it better, he took his shots at trades and signings when they presented themselves, all the while dealing with a disgruntled star who never seemed to really know what he wanted.

The blood of Van Gundy and Smith is all over Howard’s hands and best of luck to the next guy who sits in the front office because I don’t think the mess is going go away.

I will say that the first thing the new guy has to do is get rid of Howard and truly start over; I think the fans would accept it, I think it would send a good message to the league and give the new GM a measure of respect.

Stan? He’ll coach again as soon as he wants to and he will once again do a tremendous job.

And a small part of me, and a small part of a lot of people I talk to, hope that Dwight Howard is a fun guy who gets all kinds of marketing opportunities, becomes a global “brand” and never sniffs a championship again.

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Wait!

Chuck and Cammy are in town and they didn’t stop by for dinner or ask me to join them for the fireworks?

See if I take them out when I’m in London later on this summer!

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Oh yeah, today is a big day. No question about it.

Kids, listen up: No matter what you watch on TV, they don’t make ‘em like they used to and one of the all-time greats called it a career 20 years ago today.

Never be another one like Johnny Carson, will there?

And there may never be another moment like this one:

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Things you thought you’d never see, Vol. 1,302,192

You know those car flags you see people trot out every now and then, the ones that stick out the side window to show some over-the-top support for some sports team? Well, travelling around Niagara Falls while on taking care of some family issues yesterday, here comes a car with a flag of the New Jersey Devils hanging out the window.

Never saw that before and, I checked, the team is indeed still playing.

Who knew?

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So what now with the Los Angeles Lakers, who bowed rather meekly and unceremoniously out of the Western Conference playoffs last night.

(And I am a big Kobe fan but 42 points and 0 assists is not the way one of the best players ever should go out, is it?)

Anyway, there would seem to be serious flaws with that roster and change is certainly afoot.

The great Butch Carter used to say that if you wanted to make significant change to a non-playoff team in any summer you looked at some under-achieving playoff team that was ready to divest itself of good players and you can imagine a lot of teams will be looking to Los Angeles in the next few months.

But for what?

They’d have to fold the franchise if they traded Kobe so that’s not going to happen, rightly or wrongly, and other than that you have the relatively flawed Andrew Bynum or Pau Gasol and that’s about it.

I like Bynum a lot, would probably like him a lot more if tried harder more often; and Gasol is a gem who lacks some level of consistency.

The package you’d have to put together for either of them would have to include all-stars, good young players and more and I’m not sure anyone guts their team for either of those guys.

The rest of the Lakers?

Ugh.

Paucity of talent – Jordan Hill seems energetic but that’s really about it right now – and the other guys are hardly worth it, in my opinion.

It was all nice and good to hear Kobe say the end isn’t here, that the Lakers aren’t going anywhere but they have to: They are, right now, perhaps the third best team in the West, they could be the fifth or sixth best when next fall rolls around and I wonder if Mitch Kupchak has the goods to make the team appreciably better.

Doubt it.

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How much do you wish San Antonio-Oklahoma City would be opening their Western Final tomorrow or even Thursday or even Friday or even Saturday.

Yeah, me too, but our friends in TV have other things in mind and we have to wait until Sunday night for Game 1.

That’s awful, isn’t it?

But it gives me some time to figure out who might win – and that’s not going to be an easy call to make – and while all too often we end up disappointed by series or games we expect to be epic, I have a sneaking suspicion that this one could live all to all its billings.

Just too bad we have to wait so long for it to get going.

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Okay, I’m off to eat cake. Or something like that.

Enjoy the day.

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Comments

[sam]

Too bad about Van Gundy. I'm sure he'll be back....
Howard - A little high on himself - He should be forced to read the recent Sports Illustrated article about Tim Duncan and commit it to memory.

[Jeff S]

The Great Butch Carter? While I do agree that Butch did well with the HOTH in his very limited time here, doesn't adding the word "Great" to his name seem like way too much hyperbole? Former Raptors coach Butch Carter may be more appropriate.

[LeeZ]

So. The New York Post is reporting that the Raps will be making Jeremy Lin an offer. They speculate we'll be offering him 5 mil a year to start, but backload the contract with some serious coin, which would force the Knicks waaaaaaaay into luxury tax territory. Doug, with the powers vested in me by the State of Irregulars, I hereby annoint you Raptors GM for the day: do you pull the trigger on this? Yes, the Raps would reap extra revenues from Lin uniform sales and a spike in attendance, mainly from Toronto's Asian community. But...you've got a player coming off knee surgery who has an incredibly short track record, and teams were already beginning to expose his flaws (among them a horrific propensity to turn the ball over, and defensive skills that...how shall we put this...would make José look like Gary Payton in comparison. So. Do you do it?

Blogger's note: I'd be very worried about the back end of the deal; there simply isn't enough evidence to me that he's a long-term success story. It would be a fallback position right now

[Diego]

Kobe to the Sixers? Philly boy goes home; Philly gets a bona fide star; Lakers could probably get significant pieces back.

At least I'm not suggesting Kobe to the Raptors, right?

[Peter]

Happy Birthday? 53?

Blogger's note: Plus 1

[David in Oakville]

Good Morning Doug, I agree with your SVG comments with a couple of provisos... it still remains to be seen if SVG is capable of leading a team all the way. He has had more talent to coach than most and not managed to bag the big prize. And, there is nothing to suggest that SVG had the command of the team apart from Howard (their performance in the playoffs is proof of that). It is possible that Howard was the only one in the room with enough clout to say what needed to be said. As for Otis Smith.. the Gilbert Arenas debacle should have been enough to get him fired. You can't say you have confidence in his ability to assemble the pieces around Howard to make another run. The Magic have to start over, likely around Howard.

However, if we are talking crazy trades. Cuban is crazy enough to try a Dirk for Howard swap and then make a play for D-Will. Likely Orlando asks for more back and forces Dallas to take Turkoglu.. but it might work and allow everyone to save face.

Please pick up your Batphone and tell Colangelo to leave Lin alone... however Jose might be a better fit for NYC with Chandler there to cover his defensive liabilities and Jose's experience and unselfishness might work better with Carmelo.

Looks like it will be an interesting summer all round.

[JHK]

@LeeZ: Wow, I honestly don't think you've assessed any of Lin's game when you say his defensive ability makes Jose a Gary Payton! During the 7 or 8 games 'Linsanity' run he had earlier this year, he was out scoring/defending all opponent PG's. I have never seen Jose shutting down anyone...

[David in Oakville]

@JHK, while it might be hyperbole to say that Lin makes Jose look like Gary Payton it is equally untrue to say that Lin ever out defended opposing point guards. In the games I saw (on TV and in person on Valentines day) it was the defense of Iman Shumpert that shut down the opposing guard. When assessing Lin's defensive abilities it is important to remember he had both Shumpert and Chandler backing him up. Also, Lin's limited NBA experience on offense made him a good fit for the run and gun style of D'Antoni but a poor fit for a half court offense centered around a guy like Melo. My opinion, Lin is overrated relative to what we have seen (although his potential upside is huge) and Jose is generally underrated and unappreciated (especially around these parts).

[Peter]

Well Happy 54th to you!

Blogger's note: Appreciate it; thanks

[JHK]

@David in O-ville: Hyperbole, you think? Shumpert and Fields are good perimeter defenders and they do a good job of guarding their own men; Lin still needs to guard his guy and he does it decently, especially on a drive-in situations (decent lateral movement, always stays on ground with two hands up).
Let's be real in comparison with Jose (and believe me, I am not a anti-Jose guy).
Lin is younger, cheaper, has a better vision/IQ, more athletic, and can create off the dribble. He can also shoot half-decent (he shot something like 50% during that Linsanity run).
Lin is an upgrade over Jose.
No brainer.

[Tim H.]

Hey Doug:

I remember my 55th year - it'll be a good one, no doubt!

Have a great Birth Day!

Blogger's note: Much appreciated; am sure I will

[james]

Why would the Raptors want Lin (aside from marketing, as LeeZ notes) when they already have Bayless who is a better player than Lin and Calderon who is much better?

[CJT]

@JHK, come on. Younger - Yes. Cheaper - Yes. better penetration - Yes. Better court vision and Bball IQ no way, not even close. Not in the same conversation as Jose. I understand you are trying to prove a point, but remember that while he maybe a good risk at 4 or 5 million a year, he is certainly not worth the risk if the back end of his contract is as big as is being speculated about. He is not a good shooter, terrible mechanics that lead to inconsistant results and is certainly not suited for the half court style play that we currently run.

[Cluck Kent]

I don't ever want to be thought of as a Dwight Howard apologist, but I can't help but think he took a lot of bad personal advice this year. Now I understand that at the end of the day he has to make his own decisions but at that age, it wouldn't hurt to have a couple of role models. For example, would last year's antics have been different if Dwight had been drafted originally by the Spurs and had Pop and David Robinson teaching him the ropes?

A very Happy Birthday and continued thanks for the Blog!

[LeeZ]

@CJT: Couldn't agree more.
@David in Oakville: you had me until you talked about Lin's upside being huge. Really? What do you base that on? What we saw last year was a player with very limited physical tools (slow as molases, unathletic, no vertical leap to speak of) but who has a very big heart and very large cajones. His game was starting to be dissected and countered. For example, that drive down the middle that split the defence so effectively during those first heady days of Linsanity? Teams started to take that away very quickly, and Lin ended up stuck in the middle, swarmed by a couple of bigs with nowhere to go, and he would invariably turn the ball over (YET AGAIN). So where you see upside (far less HUGE upside), I see downside. I see a guy who is coming off a serious knee injury, who is not suited to anything but run and gun, with limited physical tools and suspect mechanics and whose best moves have been scouted and taken away from him. But like I said, the guy has a HUGE heart, and he will likely do everything he can to adjust. I just don't see any untapped upside.
@JHK: you're looking at, what, a seven-game sample size, during which he almost shot 50%? And you're making bold conclusions based solely on that? You might want to rethink that, pal.

[David in Oakville]

@LeeZ It is completely inconsistent to say that the sample size is too small to rate Lin high and then turn around and say that we have seen enough to know he has no potential to grow.

Come on, you can't have it both ways.

This guy is no less athletic than Jose.

What I saw was a guy with incredible basketball smarts and the ability to adapt quickly. It seems everyone around him ranked his work ethic as outstanding and his professionalism as above par. The guy is only 24, playing in his first set of NBA games and taking & making the game winning shot. Work ethic, heart and that kind of self confidence can go along way. To me that is huge upside worthy of a shot... 10 million a year for 4 years NO.. but still worth a look.

As far as the knee injury goes.. who knows until he tries to play. Again, in rehab, smarts, work ethic, patience and confidence go along way.

Personally, I wouldn't run out to swap him for Jose, but I think Lin gets his chance next season and someone might be foolish enough to offer him big money. Hope it's not us.

[D-Mac Ottawa]

If the Raps land Lin this coming season, unless at least two other, "bigger" names are also added (new names, not including JV), then there's definitely something askew in the rebuilding/retooling process.
Another point guard is secondary (bonus) stuff right now. And if they do work another point guard in after taking care of the other, far more important business in the small forward and shooting guard slots – if the added point guard turns out to be Lin, that means some other far better stuff failed to happen in there somewhere. As Doug suggests, Lin would be a fallback option, no way a priority option. IMO.
Cheers.

[LeeZ]

I can't have it both ways??? Of COURSE I can have it both ways! That's the beauty of demagouguery!
Kidding aside, a serious question, about the word for the day: UPSIDE.
Doug, if the statistics were laid before you as to the number of players who were drafted or signed primarily or exclusively on the basis of them having anywhere from good to tremendous upside, care to hazard a guess as to what percentage actually turned out to achieve said upside, and which turned out to be ordinary players or even stiffs? This is not a rhetorical question. Obviously, there's no way to tell with any certainty, but my guess? 30% reach their upside, 40% turn out to be completely ordinary, and 30% are stiffs. I guess the flipside of the question is: all those players in college who have great collegiate careers but are deemed to not possess much if any upside: I wonder how they turn out vis-a-vis the player chosen instead of them. This would make a fascinating statistical study, and perhaps cause GMs to rethink their strategies.

Blogger's note: Total guess with no empirical data: Closer to 25, 50, 25

[LeeZ]

In fact, Lin is a perfect example of the whole upside vs. "actual side" debate. When scouts looked at Lin, they all said: NO UPSIDE, he'll never give you more than he can give you right now, which is a non-explosive, unathletic player. Well, turns out they were wrong, and Lin WAS worthy of being selected; how many other point guards have been drafted in the last three years instead of Lin who were slated to have tremendous upside but have turned out to be busts? On our own Toronto Raptos, Solo was touted as having TREMENDOUS upside. How did THAT work out?

[Rob H]

Happy Birthday Big D!

Blogger's note: Thanks very much

[jc]

I had some stuff to say but first off, the most important..best wishes for a happy, healthy year. And now the stuff. Tough to take anything the Magic CEO said with a straight face. Dwight didn't "tell" him to make any of these moves?! That's a slippery slope when long term decisions are being made by a player that can be gone in free agency in a matter of months.
As for the Western final, doesn't any part of you wish this was just the Final and that the winner (of what should be a slugfest) will have to go on to play the Heat who had a bit of an easier road there? You can erase this post if Indiana wins the next two games :)

Blogger's note: Thanks very much; and, yes, I wish it were the Finals

[Steve]

"To me that is huge upside worthy of a shot... 10 million a year for 4 years NO."

That really is the problem right there though, the CBA rules mean that it pretty much *has* to be a backloaded 3 or 4 year deal for about that much on the end of it (at least) to get him out of New York assuming they want to resign him.

"On our own Toronto Raptos, Solo was touted as having TREMENDOUS upside. How did THAT work out?"

I don't recall anyone saying that to be honest, let alone 'touting it'. So I'd say it worked out as anyone would expect most second round picks to work out.

[Mike kovacs]

If Howard received bad personal advice this year it is his own fault for surrounding himself with yes-men and sychophants.

happy birthday!

Blogger's note: Thanks!

[511]

Happy Birthday, Doug! All the very best.

Blogger's note: Much appreciated

[Nasko]

happy Birthday, Doug! Many more!

Blogger's note: Appreciate it, thank you