The end of the weekend mail

All right, there’s far more than you probably want here after a long night waiting for the Fields decision and sitting at Ivor Wynne watching the Argos-Ticats with Super Son.

(More on that in the morning).

As for Fields, it was a drawn out process; the Knicks took their sweet time letting everyone know what they were going to do but, in the end, the Raptors got a guy they wanted.

Is he the answer? Not entirely but he’s an intriguing player that can guard two positions (or so the coaching staff thinks) and, I believe, is far closer to the guy he was his rookie year than the guy he was in his second season. But I guess we’ll have to wait until October to find out who’s right on that.

Where’s he play? Well, I would imagine he’ll get every shot to win the starting small forward spot and he’ll see some time at a suddenly-packed two-guard position. One thing I like, though, is that now there’s competition for minutes and it gives Dwane a hammer if some guys under-perform. And that’s not a bad thing.

And now, the mail:

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Q: Doug, it was great to see your Help Section articles on improving your short game but how about a little something for those of us who are beyond help? I have the profanity down pat, but could use 2-3 family-friendly phrases for each of the following common situations: (a) slicing a drive deep into the woods, (b) topping pathetically with an iron from a decent lie on the fairway, and (c) from an uphill lie or a bunker, chipping straight over the green and down the other side or into another bunker.

Mike D, The Deep Rough

A: Oh, that’s easy

“Well, my fellow playing partners, I certainly struck that one amiss, didn’t I? Drat.”

And

“Just need a bit more club!”

And

“Get in the hole!!!! Oh, and where's the cart person?"

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Q: Hi Doug, wondering if you could elaborate on why you think team record is more arbitrary than an all-star game. Especially in baseball where one game is almost completely random it seems like a very unfair way to determine home field advantage. Consider last year where the Rangers won their division by 10 games but didn't have home field vs the Cardinals, who only made the playoffs (on the last day) because of an epic collapse of another team. Anyway, love the blog, just don't quite get your thoughts on this.

Chris W, Toronto

A: Basically, it’s this (and I can probably be talked out of it and certainly see other points):

The regular season scheduling disparity – especially when it comes to relative merits of the teams you play in inter-league action – is so big, I’d rather have the best players in the game try to decide it rather than hope my American League team draws a bunch of weak sisters from the National League, or vice versa.

But I do see your point.

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Q: Mr. Smith, I notice Bryan Colangelo seems to be referencing analytics in the media much more frequently than he has in the past. So, I have 3 questions:

Does this reflect a greater focus on analytics on the part of the organization (do they have an analytics department)?

Are they developing their own proprietary models for evaluation/valuation of players or do they use consultants?

What is Doug Smith's opinion on the use of analytics in the game?

Evan G, Thornhill

A: Not sure how much “greater” it is, they’ve had for a couple of seasons, two fellows on retainer to analyse data for them; Bryan just seems to be speaking more publicly about it these past few weeks.

They have consultants now – I can’t say for sure if they are employed by other teams as well – but Dwane did mention last season that he’d like to have them in-house but I am not sure where that stands and nothing is likely to be done in that regard until much closer to the regular season. And, sadly, they don’t the depth of the information with us so I can’t say what, if any, is proprietary.

Me? I think they have a place in the game but are not in any way, shape or form the be all and end all that goes into player procurement. Or player rejection for that matter. Other things, like “fit” of personalities and raw skill for players who don’t have a lot of baseline analytical information are just as important.

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Q: Hey Doug, I'm curious to get your take on the Raptors letting Bayless go. I'm wondering because of the ongoing Lowry-Calderon drama. Now I guess they were going to trade Calderon anyway since they got Lowry. With Bayless signing for only $3 million in Memphis (I believe that's the number, correct me if I'm wrong) why wouldn't the Raptors have tried to bring back Bayless on a cheap contract like that? Then, you could still trade Jose for a needed piece and you could have a Lowry-Bayless young combination at the point guard spot, and that would be excellent to watch. Personally I would have done that, but then again I don't know Lowry too well and maybe his game is very similar to Bayless but contrasts well in a tandem with Jose. I guess that's why I'm not the GM!

Your thoughts?

Simon S, Toronto

A: First of more than a few Bayless questions, you’ll see others shortly.

Timing was everything with Bayless and, who knows, after they finalized Lowry and got an answer on Fields they might have made a call; financially, they had to wait.

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Q: Doug - good morning - I guess the Lowry trade is a good thing - B.C. knows more about b'ball and players than I - and likely you and I put together - ( and multiplied ??)

I know stats aren't everything but could you tell me why he is a better point guard than Calderon?

Like you, I feel Jose has been greatly underappreciated, what improvements can we expect with Lowry?

Bill W

A: From what I’ve seen and been told, Lowry is probably a more aggressive player at both ends of the court. A bit stronger and more gritty defensively and probably better at getting to the rim on offence.

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Q: Hey Doug: Here is a partial quote from an SI story about Houston's attempt at getting Howard:_"...it’s fine to rant about how Howard could still “force his way to Brooklyn,” but you better be able to explain exactly how that is going to happen under the league’s cap and trade rules."

Reading that article, it does seem as if the cap/tax/trade rules are, as you often refer to them, 'arcane.' With that in mind, your answer earlier this week to a commenter's question was that you would have to wait until Monday to figure out what cap space each team has.

In order to do this, do you have access to a capologist? Is there one of the Henchmen who will help you out?

Thanks again for all you do - I can't wait to read your articles/blogs from Merry Ol' England!

Tim H, Windsor

A: Not full access but there are people in the organization here who will explain things in an unattributed form so that correct information is getting out there as it pertains to them.

And you just do a lot of reading and figuring out, ciphering and asking questions; it does take some time.

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Q: Hello Doug! Just a couple of weeks now until the 2012 Olympics kick off and reports from London tell of worries about cracks in the M4, roads that are already horribly gridlocked, fake event tickets being sold online, (now that would really suck...) and the embarrassing last-minute discovery of a serious shortfall by the contractor hired to provide security. And that rain. Days and days and weeks and months of it. Good for the skin tone, though. You'll have a splendid 'peaches and cream' complexion when you come home. (That is, if you don't have one already!) But these are all fixable situations (well, except for that pesky precipitation - remember your brolly) and before you know it, things'll be well underway and you'll be watching amazing performances and sending us your stories about them.

And I can't wait to read them. But...hopefully you'll have a couple of free hours, 'cause did you know that while you're there The 2012 Great British Beer Festival (GBBF) will be taking place! Apparently it features over 800 different British real ales, ciders, perries as well as food stalls and live music. Doesn't that sound fun?

 

So, my question: since we know you and the Royal Family (RF) are thisclose, if you could choose, which one of the RF would you most enjoy sharing a pint and a bit of bubble and squeak with? Harry? Wills? Liz Herself? Hey, is Pippa fully Royal? Cheers! Or should I say Cheerio!

Lorie P, London

A: I’m not at all sure about Pippa but if she and Kate and I hung out, that’d be cool. Never had beers with a princess, let alone two.

I know that’s a cliché answer and I should have look for some obscure Duchess of something like that but I’m a pretty cliché kind of guy at times.

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Q: Hey Doug. This is my first time writing in. I've been following the train wreck, which is the Dwight Howard saga, and I can't seem to figure out what is worse: Dwight Howard's attitude or the Orlando Magic's inability to make sound management decisions.

What are your thoughts?

Jake F, Toronto

A: I think the Orlando management, at this case has droned on, has actually acted prudently. They are under no rush to trade him, the package they might have received from the Nets was awful, in my opinion, and I think it’s wise to wait and see if anything else comes along that’s better.

And, sadly, they took him at his word last year when he opted in. That he went back on his word, at least a little bit, is all on Howard, who has handled himself terribly through this entire process.

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Q: You mentioned on your blog that you can't wait to see Nigeria play in the Olympics. Personally, I'm excited to see Lithuania's Jonas Valunciunas in live action for the first time. Do you think CBC will make it a point to show more of Lithuania's games since so many Toronto basketball fans also want to see this kid in action?

Thomas W, Toronto

A: It’s actually the CTV consortium that has the Olympic broadcast right and I would be surprised if they paid much attention at all to the Lithuania games, maybe a minute or two. They have bigger fish to fry and stories with a larger reach to tell.

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Q: Hi Doug. A big fan of the blog.

Question for you about the PG position for the Raptors. From Colangelo's comments about Lowry being the future, it would seem that he will be the starter. Since Calderon obviously has value (as per your article on Thursday) why did the Raptors withdraw the qualifying offer to Jerryd Bayless? Wouldn't it be wise to keep him in the fold as a back-up in case they move Calderon? It just doesn't seem like great asset management. Thanks

Chris N, Toronto

A: Mostly because they needed to have the money freed up to be 1,000 per cent sure on the Fields, Lowry stuff with a bit of wee cushion. But, and this may be hard for a lot of you to believe, but finding a backup point guard – if they have to and that’s still not certain – at less than $4.2 million that Jerryd would have made who has comparable skills is not going to be all that difficult. Yes, he was okay; but a star in the making? Not so much.

It was prudent and necessary business, that’s all.

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Q: Greetings, should we all be planning the victory parade for the Raps? Of course not but I would think that when one looks back at last season, consider the number of games they played without Andrea and look forward to this season I think we can say that making the playoffs shouldn't really be a huge stretch for the HOTH. There weren't many games last year that were total blow outs and truthfully the price of admission to the post season party doesn't seem that high. Bryan and the Henchmen should be acknowledged for what they have put together and if the roster changes bring 10/12 more wins we should be at least within striking distance of the playoffs.

In your opinion how will the additions effect Andrea's numbers this coming year? Obviously health can play a huge role here, but personally I think that he should be able to find more space to do what he does best.

Thanks for what you do

Doug T, Brantford

A: I wonder if he’ll post the same scoring numbers given that you would expect they could get more offence from the centre position and small forward this year. But the presence of other threats could actually make him more effective; teams may have to pay more attention to others, leaving him, as you say, with more room.

And, again as always, he’ll have to rebound at least a bit better and more actively.

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Q: Doug - great work - looking forward to your olympics coverage. Raptors look like they need one last piece. How surprised would you be if Dwight Howard was (somehow blackmailed into getting) signed by the Raps? Is there a sleeper European star out there that could be convinced to cross the ocean?

David M, Toronto

A: Hahahahaha! How surprised? Can’t say because nothing’s that ever happened in the world would be more surprising.

And, no, Europe, at this moment, is pretty picked over, according to every scout I’ve talked to. No diamonds in the rough.

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Q: Hey Doug, how important do you think it is to have players that conform to our idea of the tradition positions in the NBA. The Heat showed you don't need a center or a point guard really- and yes that's a function of person, but still. Since the Raptors seem to be desperate for a SF wouldn't it be worth seeing if Terrance and DeMar can just play together as "wings' instead of worrying about who is the SF and who is the SG? They can both defend plus adding Lowry sounds like a decent recipe for perimeter defense success?

Adam T, Toronto

A: I’ve said for eons that the game, and the style of play, is changing so much that traditional names hold very little value. I think you have a point guard, two wings who are often interchangeable and two bigs who are also pretty much the same guy. It’s semantics.

And I would imagine, if things don’t change dramatically between now and October, that you’ll see a bunch of time when two of DeRozan, Ross and Fields are on the court at the same moment.

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Q: Hi Doug. You've been saying Lowry-Calderon or Calderon-Lowry would be a strength of position, but I just couldn't help thinking about the Ford-Calderon or Calderon-Ford combination we had some years ago. Do you think this kind of 2 starting PGs combo would work? How do you rate the Lowry-Calderon and the Ford-Calderon combination?

Thanks!

Anthony C, Toronto

A: Well, it worked okay when Calderon-Ford got ‘em to the playoffs so it’s possible. Is it perfect? Maybe not. But it can be workable and is a great hedge against the injuries that pop up.

Rate them? Tough to say but I’d prefer Lowry-Calderon to Ford-Calderon because I believe Lowry is a better player, better defensively and bigger.

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Q: Hi Doug. There was a lockout last year because the owners and commissioner said that things couldn't continue the way they were. After a week and a half of free agency, I can't really see how anything has changed. Players are still demanding trades while still under contract and the good teams are getting better. Would you explain things to me?

Jeffrey G, London

A: Not much has seemingly change – well, except for the fact the only player “demanding” a trade won’t get traded where he wants to go, so there’s that – but there have been some subtle shifts. If, in fact, the Knicks are worried about tax implications in their decision to not match on Fields first and perhaps Lin, that’s a win for the new CBA.

As for other good teams getting better, remember this: Steve Nash was an unrestricted free agent and I have no qualms about a guy who fulfilled his contractual obligations going where he wanted and the Heat were able to add Allen and Lewis under terms that existed in the previous CBA.

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Q: Hey Doug. Am I missing something here? Raptor fans constantly hear how NBA players are reluctant to come to Toronto, and the team has acknowledged this to some extent through the media reports. And if that was never more evidenced than in the last week, when our own Captain Canada, Steve Nash, could not be convinced at even $10 more million dollars over 3 years to come to T.O. (No home country discount here, and that BS about wanting to be near his kids is just a smoke screen. No matter the scenario, a person can always come up with a reason to do or not do something. Success, family, money, home, education, patriotism? etc.)_Then we consider the guys who have played and starred here for the Raptors (Stoudamire, McGrady, Carter, and Bosh to name the most obvious) who managed to work their way out of town as soon as it suited them.

Understandably, we can't force someone to love us, but why then is it, when we have quality and entertaining (maybe not superstar) NBAers like (Tracy Murray, Matt Bonner, and now Jerryd Bayless) who all wanted badly to stay here, the Raptors show their appreciation by either shipping them out of town or by doing their very best to not re-sign them?

What the Raptors need, are some players who want to be here, to at least ensure that their will be some semblance of 100% effort out there on a nightly basis. As I recall this Bayless kid played his %#@&% off every night last season, as did Bonner and Murray before him. I am really sad to see him go, as I was sad to see Matt and Tracy go before him.

Let's start a culture of having players who want to be here, and who understand what a great town Toronto is. These intangibles can help create a winning environment, because most of us would agree that we work better where we are happy.

Thanks

Dave H, Toronto

A: What the Raptors need, what every team in every sport needs, is better players. And all those three guys did play hard, no question, and were not able to have a lot of success with the team.

It’s all nice and good to think about people being happy where they work; what makes them happier is winning, pure and simple. Everyone was happy in the Vince years.

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Q: I'm wondering why the press seems vaguely satisfied with the moves made, to date, by the Raptors. It is apparent that they have strengthened themselves at the guard position but...our European rookie is a slim, inexperienced rookie. He will be an upgrade but very much a work in progress. Our draft pick may or may not help but it’s difficult to argue that he brings meaningful upside this year. Our acquisition from the Knicks is probably a slightly overpaid role player & a minor upgrade. Given the truly sad state of the line-up last year and scouring the potential line-up for this year is there any other conclusion than the team will continue not to have a competitve line-up. Shouldn't the pressure to add a starting small forward be obvious? Can it be said that management has taken a true half step forward without this piece of the puzzle being addressed?

Alan S, Toronto

A: Who cares whether we’re “satisfied?” Not our job. They have improved the talent level 1-15 over last year, there is no debate over that in my mind and, yes, they need more depth at the small forward but there’s time left and, let me ask you this: What if Kleiza has a great year?

Anyway, they’ve done what they can so far to make things better without really losing much (you can’t shake a magic wand and make a trade for a stud three without having one available or gutting your roster) and there’s time left before they have to do anything on the court for real.

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Q: Hi Doug. This isn't meant as a shot... okay, in a way it is - but a completely uneducated one. Anyway, why is Mark Stein getting the latest Raptor stories ahead of the local media?

Joe S, Kingston

A: Sure, it’s a shot. But whatever.

Mostly it’s because the “national” guys like Stein and Woj and Spears and Berger spend a lot more time dealing with a variety of agents, GMs, player personnel people and simply have a wider array of contacts. And people love to talk to people they know and in some cases, it could be something like an agent saying, “I hear this is cooking.”

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Q: Hi Doug. I thought that Alan Anderson excelled when he was brought up at the end of the season. Assimilated well to the team, confident shooter, good defender. I think he's earned a roster spot. Do you think he'll be offered a contract?

Gary D, Stouffville

A: I know they still have him the back of their mind but it’s not a priority at moment and it’s not like a dozen other teams are clamouring to get him. I can see him getting a non-guaranteed or partially-guaranteed deal to come to camp.

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Q: Hi Doug. I would of liked to Steve Nash as a Raptor but can understand him choosing the Lakers at this point in his career. I was put off by him stating that this was a 'family' decision to be near his kids. If this is so important to him, why does he move away from them every off season to NY as soon as the season is over. I'm not very interested in player's personal lives but he was the one to bring this up. Why the free pass from the media on this one?

Paul R, London

A: Let me ask you this:

Do you think for a second that, in the summer while on vacation, Steve’s children might actually join him in New York? Perhaps it’s not “moving away” as much as it’s having a second residence.

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Comments

[LeeZ]

You ask: what if LK has a great year? O.K., how about this one: what if JJ has a great year? He seems to be the forgotten man. From what I can tell, there's a good chance he's moved. And I guess my question is, why? Yes, he had that incident last year (from what I gather, he pouted about his playing time or something like that), but let's look at the positives: he DRAMATICALLY improved his jump shot (granted, it only went from hideously obscenely bad to mediocre, but that's not bad at all in the space of one lockout-shortened season); he fnishes extremely well at the hoop and was one of the few (the only?) Raptors to successfully take it to the hoop; he has stopped trying to do too much on offence; his 3-pt shooting was a pleasant surprise; his help defence was EXCELLENT -- more on that in a second -- and he led the team in blocks and was a capable rebounder. Plus he's young and cheap. Now, he does gamble way too often on d and as a result loses his man far too often when attempting to provide weak side help. But that's the kind of thing that can easily be reined in, especially with an excellent defensive coach like Casey. So: young, cheap, improving, an attitude that with increasing maturity can improve. Capable offensively with the potential to be a lock-down defender. So Doug, why are the Raps so low on this guy, relatively speaking?

Blogger's note: Yes, if he stops gambling on defence, losing his man, shows more consistency on offence, consistency on defence, knows his limitations and doesn't stray for his role, he might be a bit piece. No one -- and I'm talking to people who see him in practice every day and break down his game possession-by-possession-- thinks that's likely to happen. Be wonderful if it did but ...
We'll see, I guess

[Ren]

Good morning Doug.
Do you know when you get to meet the new Raps?
Is there a press conference set up as of yet?

Blogger's note: Nothing official yet; likely Tuesday at the very earliest

[Ren]

I know it's "summer league", but things I have read suggest that Ross looks relatively good in all aspects of his game. I know it is early, and perhaps this question isn't answerable (or simply to foolish to answer), but do you think the Raps are going to prove they made the right choice at eight? Do you think this choice will, eventually, help Colangelo hold his job if the season doesn't go according to plan?

[J]

@Various posters:

"No home country discount here, and that BS about wanting to be near his kids is just a smoke screen."

"If this is so important to him, why does he move away from them every off season to NY as soon as the season is over."

Gosh, the self-righteousness here is stifling. I'd like to see the same people criticizing Nash have their own lives picked apart by random people on what they should or should not do in their daily lives to demonstrate a commitment to family. If you've ever chosen to do something for yourself, or if you've ever dismissed your children's feelings, or if you've ever gone to a Happy Hour after work, then be glad you don't have some nobody second guessing your commitment to family.

Yes, I don't know Nash's mind any more than anyone here does. There's no way to know for sure it isn't just P.R., but there's also no way to know for sure that it is. It goes both ways.

As to why he "[moves] away from them every off season to NY as soon as the season is over," do you have evidence to back up that admonishment? Would you feel silly if you learned that prior to this summer, the off-season of 2011 was the only off-season he's had while divorced? Not quite the picture you're trying to paint, right? Do you have evidence that prior to the divorce, his family didn't join him at his summer home in NY? Do you have intimate knowledge of the travel plans of his ex and his children since the divorce? Does commitment to family mean he can only buy a summer home in Arizona? Maybe he should have thought twice about buying a summer home in case he ever divorced, huh? Maybe he also needs to quit his profession, because I'm sure there are others that would afford him much more time at home with the kids. Sheesh!

[Tosh]

Hi Doug

I never hear about James Johnson's off-season practice/routine.

Do you ever talk to him? If so, what has he been up to?
Does this play a role in what the Raptors organization thinks of him?

Blogger's note: Never see him, don't know what he's doing.

[Jordan C]

Doug, how is it that sign and trades can be executed when guys who sign normal contracts, like Brook Lopez, can't be traded until Jan 15?

Blogger's note: CBA rule, and guys in sign-and-trades have limits on being traded again, too

[beebac]

It seems lots of fans recently been going at each other on whether Jose should be starter/backup or traded. It's good to see an open blog allow these comments. I want to see a different PG this coming season for a change.

I found interesting and funny that lots of people kind of blindy in love with a player without see things deeper.

BC tried to trade him to bocats but deal gone off because of MJ or Larry Brown. This offseason BC tried to get Nash and if they got Nash they will use their amnesty provision to let Jose go. Does it say anything to you?

So it's clear that which way BC is leaning on. It's just lot of Jose fan still don't get it. Whether you agree or not, getting upset, attacking others who think or comment BC is right just does nothing. I just think you just got to accept it.

I'm glad BC is doing the right way and I think he knows basketball. That's why he is the GM and not us.

Blogger's note: Believe it or not, I don't really care, but they were not going to use any amnesty. But I guess that's neither here nor there

[GM]

@J, of course there's a way to know for sure. Or at least know better. A representative of the press could have asked Nash at a press conference. It shouldn't be off-limits since he is the one to have brought it up. Not only does he live in NY in the off-season, but he also travels a lot in the off-season. Not sure if the kids are with him or not, but he could clarify that for us. It just strikes me as a pre-emptive strike against criticism any time an athlete or coach invokes "family" because most people will just let that go. You've heard coaches quit saying they want to spend more time with their family only to take on a new job with the exact same duties or more somewhere else. So our skepticism is understandable, even if it may or may not be correct. If he invokes family reasons, then he won't be seen as another typical NBA superstar joining his arch-rivals and forming a super-team in order to try to win it all.

Also, Nash's season ended in April this year. School goes until June. Maybe he stuck around Phoenix until June, I don't know. Or maybe he went to New York. Or somewhere else. Or maybe he took his kids out of school. The point is, without asking, it's conjecture. But I'd at least ask. And if he chooses not to answer, fine. But he might.

[doug]

to me the whole strike/lockout thingie wasn't about restricting player movement, leveling the playing field it was about finances plain and simple...and the owners won that hands down, yes players still get large contracts (which they deserve), but the players take of revenue was cut to 51% and as a result the owners received a larger share of revenue and in fact withheld 57 million of players escrow fund which when old revenue sharing was higher I believe 58% the owners would have lost this money and much more....The result is that the league will keep $57 million of the funds withheld while $105 million will go back to the players themselves. Each team will receive a cut of that $57 million or about $1.9 million a team so owners can't cry poor anymore........and I agree with the poster who stated that awarding home field advantage based on a all-star game is ludicrous...there is weakness of schedule in every sport, seasons should decide home field advantage not a one off game where the "best players" may only play for a inning or so, the line-up is a revolving door, some of the best pitchers don't even pitch due to various reasons...if it was a credible game then yes, the all-star game isn't let the season decide and this format was only introduced after the debacle of a tie game, it was about Selig covering his butt, and to me failing again.....ok cheers...

[Bo4]

James Johnson isn't going to be the starting SF cause he doesn't make his team-mates better. That means they don't win, and that is the bottom-line. (See 82games.com 5-man units winning percent & +/- records for the evidence on which this conclusion is based.)

Blogger's note: Actually, while I was sleeping/chilling, they struck a deal to send James Johnson to Sacramento for a second round pick

[Dow]

Hey Doug, Just a few thoughts on James Johnson and would love to hear your thoughts. But havent we seen this happen before with player/coach beef over playing time (Tracy McGrady, Butch Carter). It doesnt make sense why on a team last year with a team whose offense looked developmentally arressted some nights would a coach be so hard on a guy trying to make plays for his team. I understand its a team game and you have to play within the system to garner team success, but as a coach you gotta love his spunk. I would just hate to see another guy leave Toronto and become a star or bigger impact player for their new team (Chauncey Billups, Tracy McGrady, Matt Bonner to name a few) - Dow, Toronto

Blogger's note: The coach is onside with the trade. And of the three you brought up, no one in the NBA thought Billups would be what he was; McGrady left of his own accord and, yes, Bonner fit in well in San Antonio. And, really, what "team success" was James a big part of?