The wait goes on, but it's probably worth it

While we’re waiting for Godot Nash, we continue to wonder what Plans C, D, E are for the Raptors after Plan B was kind of revealed with the Landry Fields thing yesterday.

It’s a sensible move, as we tried to explain here, but surely there has to be more and, eventually, we’ll find out.

No way Bryan can sell this team if they don’t get Nash by simply re-signing Jerryd Bayless and adding Fields and keeping “flexibility” for the future, can he? No way.

The Fields thing probably means they’ll be out of the Ersan Ilyasova thing – if he’s a three, they might just have acquired one; if he’s a four, they have a lot of them – and the same probably rings true for Nic Batum because I have a feeling each of those guys are going to get offers sooner rather than later.

Other than that? If there’s no Nash – and despite the slowness of the process there is no indication from anyone I’ve talked to that it’s anything more than a guy taking his time to make a decision, as infuriating as that may be to you – what is there?

The usual suspects.

Goran Dragic – and it looks like it’s not going to work for him in Houston, which probably takes Kyle Lowry out of play.

Jeremy Lin – he’s okay, as we’ve said, in the “unproven outside of 26 games” thing but even if you back-load an offer sheet there, the Knicks might match and some other team may come in with a big offer anyway.

Past that?

Yikes.

We’ve known all along that this was a suspect free agent crop, a couple of interesting pieces, a bunch of guys who are just different from what’s here and not necessarily better, and the most intriguing ones will likely be snapped up by the end of the week, either with offer sheets or by staying with their current teams.

I’ve been all in favour of going all-in on Nash, I think he’s just what they need on the court and will immediately bring some relevancy back to a somewhat forgotten franchise. There’s no reason to back off of that now, even if the wait’s killing you, oh well. Imagine what it’s doing in the Ivory Tower down at the ACC.

But it may be worth it; or it may turn out to be a gamble that didn’t work and, as we’ve said so many times, I’d far prefer to have an organization gamble and lose than not gamble at all.

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May have mentioned before that I believe the only people who appreciate whistling are those doing the whistling but, in memoriam, this is one of most familiar whistled ditties ever.

RIP, Andy.

And who doesn’t remember Barney, Otis, Goober, Aunt Bea and Floyd fondly? To nothing of Opie.

(And there’s no way Andy’s turn as Matlock beats out Andy’s work as Andy, right?)

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We’ve given very short shrift to the Canadian cadets men’s team that’s in the under-17 world basketball championships over in Lithuania – my fault entirely with the focus on the women and the Saga Of Steve – but let’s play catch up.

The lads finished their preliminary round with a 3-2 record – wins over Argentina, Korea and Lithuania, losses to Croatia and Spain – and they’ll be off to the knockout quarter-finals on Friday against an opponent still to be determined, with the best guess being Australia.

It’s a pretty good young Canadian team coached by Dave DeAveiro that might have a shot at top 4 finish in its first appearance at a world under-17 championship. They’re missing a couple of key players who moved up and played under-19 – Andrew Wiggins and Trey Lyles – but a solid showing so far and it’s as much about the experience as anything.

We’ll follow ‘em a bit more closely when the quarter-finals unfold later this week.

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Oh, can I just toss this out there:

I am soooooooooo tired of Dwight Howard it’s not even funny and I don’t care what happens to him, where he plays, where he wants to play and how he handles himself in the interim.

I didn’t think a player in a few years would evoke such ridicule, anger, mocking and then yawning as LeBron James did but this Howard stuff is putting The Decision right out of mind.

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Hey, any Irregulars south of the border, Happy Birthday

Growing up on the border, with a very strong influence from the American side and a neighbour who worked “across the river” the Fourth was kind of a big deal back in the day. Not as big as Canada Day, of course, but still a reason for a big backyard barbecue and I’m thinking hot dogs and a cooler might be a fine way to end this afternoon.

And in the world of Doug’s Reverse Jinxes, as soon as the flame is lit, the Nash news will break.

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Remind me again why the NBA had the lockout?

Was it so teams wouldn’t offer horrid contracts to relatively marginal talents and would be fiscally responsible?

Yeah, right.

Look, I fully admit Roy Hibbert and Eric Gordon are fine young basketball players but to think either of them is “worthy” of a maximum value contract as a restricted free agent – Hibbert from Portland, Gordon from Phoenix – is laughable.

I can kind of understand Toronto back-loading the Fields deal to make it uncomfortable for New York to match and for Houston to do the same thing to the Bulls on an Omer Asik deal but, really, that’s just ridiculous spending and if the owners dare come back in a few years and talk about how the system is broken and needs fixing, they should be ridiculed beyond belief.

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Oops.

Know how one of the fears about Jonas Valanciunas was going to be foul trouble and how he’d have to figure things out as he went along?

Well, he had four fouls and five points but could only play nine minutes as Lithuania drilled Venezuela 100-82 at the Olympic qualifier in Caracas on Tuesday.

The good news?

Linas Kleiza went berserk, hitting 11 of 16 shots for 28 points.

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Comments

[Nick Stoute]

Doug,

Your best guess - (assuming the Raps get Nash) is their intention at this point to start Fields alongside Derozan?

Or do they have other plans for a new starting 3 (trades, perhaps?)

Blogger's note: My guess, four months before Game 1, and three months before training camp, would be yes

[Matthieu]

Thanks for the update. We have been talking only about free agency so far but couldn't the Raps try to get players through a trade just like the Nets did for Joe Johnson?

Blogger's note: If they had much that teams wanted without gutting the existing roster, probably.

[Canadian Paul]

Hi Doug, I like Fields, but the the cost is really out of whack with the skill level. I guess it's the price these days.

If they can do a sign-and-trade with Phoenix for Nash, would Ilyasova become a possibility again?

Blogger's note: Doubt it

[dean]

Knowing that LA is looking at manufacturing a sign and trade for Nash, and also knowing that the IDEAL fit for Nash is actually NY,and knowing that DWill rebuffed Dallas and now Dallas will target Steve hard...... I get this sense that today or tomorrow Nash is going to break a lot hearts in Canada.

I just cannot see how he chooses Toronto over those three cities.

i think if Steve was not more than 50% sure he wanted to come here, he should not have had the meeting at all. The damage in the short run to his image will be huge. If Toronto cannot sign Captain Canada, with a Brinks truck full of money, please tell me what top tier free agents will ever come here??

Plans B, C, D and E scare the holy heck outta me. Those plans smell a lot like a 20-30 win season.

Another day of waiting, wondering how he will announce. Being the NBA Twitter king, I would expect it via that method, but if he announces from NY, my stomach is going to churn until he utters the team name he chose...............

Blogger's note: He lives in NY, just so you know. That's where word will come from, not that it matters a whit

[B Saunders]

The most obvious plan B for loosing out on Nash is sitting right in front of you. If Nash chooses to go elsewhere than Jose is either not traded or amnestied. Free agents can't sign a deal until the 11th, so that would leave plenty of time for the window needed to either trade or amnesty Jose.

Blogger's note: Be utterly stupid to amnesty him without something in place, though

[Bo4]

As you wrote, it's Steve Nash or BC is going to have to pull off a miracle trade to get a swing in here that deserves to start. That's unlikely, however.

Can Coach Casey turn DeRozan/Fields at SG, and J. Johnson/Kleiza at SF into a competitive set?

Ilyasova makes sense only if we're trading away a PF. Neither Dragic nor Lin are an improvement on Calderon, and won't come here to be his sub.

[Derek]

Morning Doug,
I understand that the Landry deal was partly done to try and knock the Knicks out of the running for Nash, hence the higher salary offer. That being said, if Nash decides to go somewhere other than Toronto (LA or Dallas as an example) and NY doesn't match the offer for Landry - how badly does Landry's contract hurt Toronto? I don't know much about Landry - based on his skill set alone, is the offer "a little high", or "way out of whack"?

Blogger's note: Doesn't hurt 'em now and who knows what the landscape will be in 3 years; besides, there are no untradeable contracts: See Johnson, Joe

[Steve]

I agree that I'd rather have an aggressive GM, especially in our market, because as you have mentioned (and heard and read from 'experts' down south), our franchise has been irrelevant for the most part since the Vince days. Do you see a little Doug Christie in Fields?

Blogger's note: A little wee bit but too early to really tell

[JT]

If the Raptors don't get Nash, doesn't the Landry move backfire because it's a high price to pay for someone who is really just another guy? Not as good as DeRozan, not much of an upgrade to James Johnson...

Blogger's note: Coaches will disagree with your last statement.

[David in Oakville]

@ Dean, How is NY the ideal fit for Nash, apart from the fact that he lives there? If the Knicks struggled with Lin and Anthony how is having Nash alongside Melo any better, unless the NBA introduces a second ball? I think basketball wise, Dallas is the ideal fit for Nash and the most likely path to the finals. In that sense, Toronto is not a bad fit either if you are willing to overlook the talent level of the guys Nash will have to create with and the fact that they have little chance of getting out of a first round playoff in the East.
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Doug, in light of the fact that you are on your way to London let me sum up my feelings on the Landry manoeuvre as follows "too clever by half". If the Raps actually end up with Landry for that kind of money then it is time for BC to go and to take Ed with him. All of these moves seemed likely to produce one thing only, a mediocre team that will be life and death to make the playoffs but guarantee a middle of the pack, mostly mediocre draft pick.

[Timothy]

..."nothing to be done"

I performed in that play...which makes me sad because *SPOILER ALERT* I know he never shows up

[JHK]

@JT: I wonder what 'upside' there is to JJ... he is what he is. A JYD clone.

[Rob.V]

Blogger's note: Be utterly stupid to amnesty him without something in place, though.
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Be utterly stupid to amnesty Jose under any circumstances in my opinion.
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I've long been a Colangelo supporter so I'll give him a pass on both Nash & fields as "everyone" overpays in free agency (Hibbert-Gordon.. to your point) however Calderon could start for 10-15 teams in the league. At the very minimum, they should take Ron Artest from the Lakers for Jose.
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Yes, I know the history however he can still lock down on defense, and he can still hit the 3. To let Jose walk for absolutely nothing would shake my confidence in Brain for the first time.
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Let's see what happens with Nash first however maybe there is a bigger deal with the Lakers. Why not, Jose, Ed-or Amir and Keliza for Gasol? It's worth a shot if the Lakers really want him off the books.

[chris]

They should pull the plug now and go after one of the Houston PGs. Both are good, and the novelty of Nash goes out the window if he's not excited to be here.

[Jacques]

Doug, why wouldn't we keep JC to come off the bench behind SN and use the amnestied on AB or trade him for someone who isn't as injury prone.

Blogger's note: Too many reasons to go into here, sorry

[coachd]

Hi Doug,
As the old BTO song said "You ain't seen nothing yet." Colangelo has been sitting on his hands for two years now. If it happens, the signing of Nash will be the first step in Colangelo's plan and the rest of the moves may be small tweaks to the roster. If he doesn't sign Nash, then all hell will break loose. I can see half the team being traded away. I don't think he'll be able to sit still. Because the roster as is comprised will not make the playoffs. And that will not be acceptable to Colangelo. He took the poison this past year. I don't think that he's got it in him to do it again.

[jb]

According to everyone (ESPN, Yahoo) Nash hasn't is waiting to see if the Knicks can still do a sign and trade with Phoenix.
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"Steve Nash is allowing the Knicks time to create a sign-and-trade deal that would be acceptable to the Suns while also getting him a higher salary, according to a source.
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Landry Fields was one player Phoenix was known to have interest in, but he agreed to a $20 million, three-year offer sheet with the Raptors on Tuesday that takes him out of the running.
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Toronto has a three-year, $36 million offer on the table to Nash."
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In other words, if the Knicks can do a sign with Phoenix for Shumpert...Nash will play for the Knicks. If not, then he will consider Dallas, Lakers and Raptors. Read Grange's article on Nash(it's decent).
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Landry Fields is terrible, a shooting guard who shoots under 30% from 3's and who can't dribble or create his own shot(I think we have one of those already in Demar). During the playoffs, Landry's man didn't even bother to guard him on defense...so Miami could double or roam on defense.

Blogger's note: Interesting revisionist use of Fields's stats, actually. Dead wrong but why worry about that, right? Want the real numbers? 34 per cent 3 pt shooter for career, 26 per cent last year with Melo, 39 per cent the year before; career 48 per cent FG shooter, 50 per cent first year, sans ball-stopping SF who was playing Fields's best position. So before you bring weak made-up stuff here, a wee bit of research into numbers and position would be a solid idea.
And Grange's pieces are always good, even when he's doing the pucks

[Tim H.]

Hey Doug:

Do you see a name change coming for the blog: Smith's, Doug Sports Blog? ;>)

[Bo4]

coachd, I disagree with you. Signing Nash will instantly increase the Efficiency of every player on the court with him, period. The current roster is just entering a 4 year period where they will contend for a playoff spot, at the very least, even without Steve Nash. Half the team will NOT be traded away. All BC needs is a swing who can start with DeRozan. James Johnson isn't it. He just doesn't make others better. BC isn't going to panic, and make a fatal (for his career) mistake.

[Ian Gollert]

Doug,

Heard this morning on ESPN radio that Nash has said he doesn't need a ring to complete his career. Have you heard these comments as well?

Blogger's note: For years

[jb]

"Blogger's note: Interesting revisionist use of Fields's stats, actually. Dead wrong but why worry about that, right? Want the real numbers? 34 per cent 3 pt shooter for career, 26 per cent last year with Melo, 39 per cent the year before; career 48 per cent FG shooter, 50 per cent first year, sans ball-stopping SF who was playing Fields's best position. So before you bring weak made-up stuff here, a wee bit of research into numbers and position would be a solid idea."
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Wow, you are an angry dude. Revisionist??? The sub 30% from 3's were from last year stats. I never knew I had to pick and choose numbers from his career. I just used last year's stats b/c it's the most recent numbers. If you want to argue about different metrics, we can do that. You are blaming Fields' poor shooting on Melo(I don't like Melo's game)....if any thing Melo frees up Landry for the shoot if he ever passes(once in a blue moon)...and Landry shot 25.6% from 3's last year. Landry can't create his own shot...am I wrong? Did Miami's defense not leave Landry open in order to double or roam in last year's playoff? Has it not been reported that Nash is waiting on the Knicks to see if they can do a sign and trade knowing full well all the offers on the table?
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Landry's stats
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GP MPG PPG FGM-FGA FG%
2011-12 Regular Season 66 28.7 8.8 3.6-7.8 .460
2011-12 Postseason 5 23.0 7.2 3.0-6.2 .484
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3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% RPG
2011-12 Regular Season 0.5-1.8 .256 1.2-2.1 .562 4.2
2011-12 Postseason 0.2-1.0 .200 1.0-1.4 .714 3.0

[coachd]

Bo4, I don't think we disagree re: Nash's impact on the team.As I said, if he signs Nash the rest of the moves are tweaks,because he makes everyone else better. Where we disagree is the fact that the team, as comprised, is not a likely playoff team. At best, they might contend for a 7 or 8 playoff seed each year, a likely first round exit, and a low draft pick. . That's not good enough in my opinion. The time has come for Colangelo to swing for the fences. If he fails, then so be it. As Doug said elsewhere, it will be someone else's mess to clean up.

[ad]

"No way Bryan can sell this team if they don’t get Nash by simply re-signing Jerryd Bayless and adding Fields and keeping “flexibility” for the future, can he? No way."
Howabout selling the team adding just fields and nash? Overpaying for mediocrity (fields) is never a good thing. He's just another mediocre wing player for BC to throw into the mix. Hes not the solution at SF as he might be marginally better than james johnson. Anyways, BC better have somebody else who is better in mind. This team needs elite talent. Not the landry fields' of the world. Hes a fine role player to add when you have a strong foundation in place which the raptors do not. Anyways, what to do you think the chances are they package derozan in a trade for a good sf like iggy/gay?

Blogger's note: Not much

[DaveT (Ottawa)]

(Sorry in advance for the novel). I have to say, I like Landry Fields as a player, even though I think he creates a lot of positional overlap with DeRozan, Ross, Johnson and Kleiza. It's fairly clear that one or more of those guys won't be on the roster if Fields is.

He just seems like a guy you like to have on your team. He can shoot a bit, he can create a bit, he plays good positional 'D' and can pick up a system. You know what you're getting with him, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. As such, he could be a valuable starter on a team with some other offensive threats in the starting line-up. I don't think every starter needs to be a "mercurial talent". Look at Danny Green playing significant minutes for the Spurs.

As far as the money goes, I don't look at it like $20 million total; think $5 mil for 2 years and a trade chip in the 3rd season (or a well-valued if he "goes off").

The way the NBA landscape is, rightly or wrongly, is that you know that somebody will pay for a player you want, so if it's not you, you're going to lose them. Roy Hibbert, Eric Gordon, Nicolas Batum all good players who somebody will (or has) reach for. Joe Johnson got his albatross because Atlanta knew someone would give it to him and the only recompense they would get is the Benjamins in their pocket (and minus a lot of wins per season for the first few years).

That's why I look at the contracts of an Andrea Bargnani and a Amir Johnson as decent value. Big men are rare and so always get "over-paid" and yet these two, if you don't ask them to be what they're not, will give you what you expect out of them. And they're still developing.

On to a quick question: Doug - I have no read on Kleiza's value, either on the Raps or around the league. He seems like he could be one of Bill Simmons' "irrational confidence guys", but I don't find him quite as streaky as one of those guys needs to be. What's the general consensus, either locally or more widely around the NBA?

Blogger's note: Not much, JAG (Just A Guy)

[james]

I will be delighted if Nash joins the Raptors. If he doesn't (and the Lakers are a dangerous - to Toronto - option), then count me as one who would be happy to continue with the current roster plus draft choices plus a tweak or two (welcome back Leandro). It would be fascinating to see where Casey et al. could take this group in a normal year with a full training camp. These are young players in the main who are still improving.