Paying for promise rather than production in a one-team auction

I’m not entirely sure about this DeMar DeRozan contract extension, to tell you the truth.

The four-year, $38 million deal, barely signed before a midnight deadline, is all about paying for promise rather than production, in my opinion, and that’s a dangerous idea, one that’s all too prevalent in the NBA but dangerous nonetheless.

What Bryan did, basically, was bid against himself for the services of a good – not great, just good – 23-year-old shooting guard who may or may not develop into something special as the years roll on.

DeRozan wasn’t going anywhere if the Raptors didn’t want him to – he’d have been a restricted free agent next summer, giving Toronto the right to match any free agent offer he got – and if the price went up then, well, the price would have gone up because he’d played well and then a decision could be made.

Look, I see some of the logic behind it.

They get some financial certainty for a few more years and, frankly, getting a player under contract who’d professed love for Toronto and a desire to stay is a pretty good message after the Raptors had been rebuffed and shirked by others in the past.

It gives Bryan a chance to say to all others “look, we take care of guys who want to be here” and he hasn’t a chance to say for a while.

And, who knows, maybe DeRozan blossoms this year, maybe his fourth year is his best and the contract doesn’t look as bad when next summer rolls around.

Maybe.

But maybe what happened was Bryan thought he had to do something and he did it. He paid a lot of money for a guy who remains a better athlete than a basketball player against an artificial deadline.

You know I don’t mind general managers taking chances, you make the moves you think will work and fix them as quickly as you can if they go south. I’d much rather that than have someone who just plods along trying hit singles when home runs win games.

But this is an unnecessary gamble. He’s paying for the future when he didn’t have to, he’s hoping DeRozan keeps getting better – and to the kid’s credit he did everything they asked him to do last summer – without knowing whether he will. DeRozan’s a pretty good player right now but there are flaws in his game that have to be addressed. He’s a solid kid, good in the locker room, liked by his teammates and coaches laud his work ethic. He’s a solid citizen but you don’t pay for citizenship, either; you pay for production instead of promise, or at least you should.

The money?

The money’s not crippling; it does reduce some of Bryan’s vaunted “flexibility” but there are other ways to free up room and even if you do, it doesn’t mean anyone will take it if your teams not any good.

It is overpaying? Probably, but that’s not the biggest point.

The biggest point is that they didn’t have to do it, there’s not an awful lot of track record that says DeRozan is going to be anywhere near special. He’s good, not great; and I don’t see great in his future.

Again, they bid against themselves when they didn’t have to.

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The things you learn on opening night.

The Sheepdogs were in the audience – and having a beer so that moves ‘em way up in the charts in my opinion – I’m told in the IGBT that they’re good and the Irregulars right.

This stuff I like.

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My Man Mike Wells walks over to me in the press room as we’re about to start scribbling and says, “what a giveaway.”

And here’s how he wrote it.

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Let’s get at some mail, okay?

Click. Write. Send.

Figure we’ll do a big mailbag Saturday because of the game that night so get in what you can. You know I love to hear from you.

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So, New York.

Or Brooklyn.

Or wherever the heck it is I’m going tomorrow, if I go.

LaGuardia’s barely open, half of Manhattan and the hotels there are without power – including the one the team’s staying at, as far as I heard last night – and it’s the weekend of the marathon so not only are hotels stupidly expensive, there’s a few tens of thousands of extra people trying to get to the city and stay there.

Oh yeah, this has got “good trip” written all over it, doesn’t it?

It was a wise decision the city made to postpone tonight’s scheduled Knicks-Nets game in Brooklyn (Bloomberg must have read this space yesterday) and, frankly, if they had made the same call about Saturday, I’d have been fine with it.

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Stevie Boy Russell had some help at the opener from Carlos, here’s the photographic evidence.

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What else did we see last night?

Couple of things.

They played hard, couldn’t buy a basket in the final four minutes – and they all kinds of good looks – and couldn’t catch a break when they needed it most.

They weren’t strong enough defensively to handle David West despite running three different guys at him when he posted them up repeatedly and not double-teaming him is fine; it’s not what they do, defence is a man’s game and some men have to play it.

But Valancuinas was active and aggressive and good; Lowry was outstanding and the more I see of Lowry and Calderon on the floor for short spurts, I like it.

The Pacers tried a handful of times to post up the guards and every time, either Calderon or Lowry were good enough not get beat, they got some help, were physical and it wasn’t nearly the issue – last night at least – that I thought it would be.

All in all, more promising signs than negative ones, we’re 1/82nd into a long, long season, if they keep playing like that, they’ll win their fair share of games.

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Okay, was way late today (rolling over after the 5 a.m. alarm for 90 minutes will do that) so we’ll have to figure out some new day-after-game stuff for after Saturday.

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Comments

[Andrew]

The contract is brutal Bryan should have waited to see what DeMar was worth on the open market. Fact is DeMar just isn't as good as Hoilday, Gibson, and Lawson who are all making around the same dough.

[Penny]

Hi Doug
I enjoyed the game last night but I thought the biggest problem with the team was their lack of finish on the fast break opportunities after all the steals they had. Fields, Anderson and Lowry were all stuffed while Lucas also missed at the end of the third quarter. Haven't any of them heard of the pull-up jumper?

[JHK]

I swear I thought you'd be all over defending Derozan extension, but I loved what I just read.
Totally agree with you on this, and I pray to god he can live up to the money.

[Dan]

Really not sure why the Raptors would sign Demar to that deal. 10 million a year for a player who is not good at shooting, ball handling, defense, rebounding or passing. He plays a Dwayne Wade and Kobe style of just give me the ball and i''ll get my own points, but he lacks the skills to do that. He was only effective last night when he shot quick mid range shots or dunked off the alley oop. That mid range game is not worth 10 million. Demars main move is charge to the basket and throw up a low percentage shot and hope it goes in or he gets fouled. I just don't see it. He got worse in every stat last season. The only reason his stats went up from year one to year two was his minutes and shot attempts went up. Even then his field goal% went down. Please someone explain where his improvement has been each year that we are told he has made.

[Sharkey]

Sheepdogs are great aren't they? Saw them at Bonnaroo in 2011, felt like I took a time machine back to 1972. It's real music.

I guess I feel the same was as you Doug about the DeMar deal. Let's just hope it works out, because if he and Fields turn into stiffs that's an expensive unproductive wing combo.

[Ian]

Hey - where are the three things to remember or whatever you'd like to call it this year?

Blogger's note: May bring 'em back, still trying to find a format that's perhaps a bit new

[D-Mac Ottawa]

Good start. Not so hot finish. How many consecutive missed 'shawts' to close that one out? Nerves of jell-o.
Guess Who + James Gang = Sheepdogs, and it's 1971 all over again. Cool. Here's Joe Walsh's version of today's posted Sheepdogs' vid: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzEzIBHuUmU
Not a big fan of the blog 'excerpts' serving as stand-alone stories in the Sports-Basketball section. That's kind of like Rogers channel 15 = 92 = 137 = 295. Redundant and somewhat repetitive, too.
Cheers. Go Raps!

[sam]

Wildly entertaining game last night.
Some offensive production from Fields, Anderson would have helped the cause.
Lowry is fun to watch, and Jonas was worth the wait. . .
It's early, but a good effort -

[David in Oakville]

Good Morning Doug,

Thoughtful, well written response to the Derozan contract. Totally agree with you and it is not a knock against DeMar or his game. I hope this contract works out and DeMar is able to play up to it. But.. why now?

Following the game through the IGBT, it seems not only do we lack a closer... the Raps and coaches are sometimes lost in responding to a team surge or an adjustment made by another team. It seems David West caught fire in the 2nd half and we had no response.

Good luck in Brooklyn!

[gdr]

Same old Raptors. They looked great for 3 Q's. Then, thud! Scoring only 17 points in the 4th Q just won't cut it. The Raptors for many years just seem to never be able to come up with the big bucket when it counts and these are the types of games they always lose. Hopefully KLowry can help right the ship and bring a winning mentality.

[AT]

this is going to be a very fun team to watch... Lowry provides the leadership on the court that this team has lacked for a very long time...I think the opening night jitters cost them the game but they will be alright...
Doug what did you think of Ed Davis?, he looks like a completely new person out there....

Blogger's note: He had a great pre-season, wasn't all that surprised

[Alan C.]

Doug, I was nervous going into last night, not because of the opener, but because I was afraid that Brian might do what he did. I would have much preferred to see a hungry DeMar playing for a potentially big contract than a secure DeMar making tons of unearned $$. When I was working, I can't ever remember being rewarded for 'potential'.

[john]

Hey Doug, can’t agree more on the DD contract. It leaves them with two mediocre-good wings for at least the next three years in DD and Fields and what was supposed to be the bright spot in Ross is going to have to play awfully well to replace a 10million a year guy. Unless they can trade away some big salary or amnesty some guys next year (Kleiza?) they don’t have the flexibility to upgrade the wing.
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This team is not going to challenge for anything if AB and DD get total 24 points. AB played a very good first half, especially defending West but didn’t seem to have the same energy in the second half, maybe the effects of the Flu?

[KZN]

I guess a poison pill contract was what DD would have signed and that’s what made BC give him this contract.

[Andrew]

Hi Doug, love your stuff, but felt strangely disappointed not to sere you do "three pointers" in the blog today. Just some feedback.

Keep up the good work!

Blogger's note: Maybe I should bring 'em back?

[stretchbigman]

Colangelo took the same approach with Andrea. Possibly (imo most likely) overpaying for a player he could have waited on re-signing thereby bidding against himself.

I don't know for certain what type of deals either of these players would have got on the open market but looking at the numbers and the 0 all-star appearances between them I think we overpaid.....again.

Next year we will have invested close to $21 million in Andrea Bargnani and Demar Derozan? We all have our opinions on how teams should be built. I am a big believer in "talent wins" in the NBA and the Raps are putting their resources in players that while might score a few points, don't do much else and don't affect winning all that much. Both players have been here for years of losing and haven't shown they are able to take their game to a level the Raps need to compete with the better teams in the league.

Lowry and JV imho are more impactful players on the team than Andrea or Demar ever will be. The final year of Landry Fields deal we will have $30 million tied up in Andrea, Demar and Landry Fields!!! lol

Is this how the Raptors do business? Is that a way to build a winner?
BC needs to be scrutinized heavily on this one. Highly questionable decision at best.

Btw, how could any other player but Lowry take that final shot last night?

[Justin]

Since it is not my money I don't care what MLSE paid Derozan, unless it stops them from getting the small forward they desperately need, because they might have to pay a tax. Look how much they are paying Fields and I don't think he got a single point last night.

[wuycik]

Couldn't agree more with your thoughts on DeRozan. I felt being in a contract year was the perfect motivation to see where he could really take his game this season. Really impressed with the grit the Raptors showed last night, especially JV and Lowry. I had a chip on my shoulder with regards to Lowry because of how he handled himself in Houston, but with play like last night he'll make me forget about it.

On a non-Raptors NBA note, I predict that Mike Brown will be fired before the end of the year and replaced by Phil Jackson. Anyone care to place a friendly wager on that?

[Scott]

Hi Doug,

I know DD did not have a good game but he did take the ball hard to the hoop consistently and just couldn't get a call. I think that will happen some nights and when it does his production and value will not be there. I think most other nights he would have shot 6 or so more free throws and this game would have been very different. For years we have wanted him to take the ball to the hole and he did it last night and has all pre season (from what I can remember.) His process was good but the results weren't there, tough luck but I hope he doesn't change his mentality or approach.

Did you see any different?

Blogger's note: He's been pretty good

[LeeZ]

Damn it, Doug, there you go again: defending Bryan's ridiculous moves, being an apologist YET AGAIN for a dysfunctional organization, blindly kowtowing to the corporate interests...Why can't Feschuck write your blog, he criticizes the Raptors all the time, he doesn't just kiss butt. he...(at this point, picture Jon Stewart pretending he has an earphone in his ear through which a producer is talking to him)...Oh, I'm being told that Doug DOESN'T agree with this move, and that, further, there have been many other instances where Doug has differed to varying degrees with the moves made by the Raptors? Oh. Um. Well. Never mind, then.

[Bill]

Doug,

What do you think about some of the calls/non-calls. Most notable were (1) AB taking a hit in the chest from West and no call was made; (2) the out of bounds call with 22 seconds left and (3) the final play where I thought George Hill brushed off Lowry with his off arm and no call was made.

I was especially unhappy with the final one because (1) the look on Hill's face was exactly "what!? how did I get that off?" and (2) I am sure if a bigger player (think Dwight Howard swinging his off arm at an opponent) did that it would have been called an offensive foul.

Blogger's note: I think if you asked a Pacers fan they'd find five things to complain about, too. Officiating was fine

[Thomas]

I'm fine with the extension... Fans get pissed at players for leaving. How about we be grateful Derozans even willing to play for us. Even if it doesn't pan out, it's not like we haven't given out huge contracts for potential in the past... Heir Canada Baby!

[jb]

I thought DeRozan's contract offer was ridiculous - $38 mill for 4 years for a

-shooting guard who can't shoot especially the 3 ball
-an athletic player who can't use his athleticism b/c his handles are poor(for a guard)
-he is a below average defender
-he is a below average rebounder for his position
-he is a below average assist man
-he scores at an inefficient rate on a bad team
-Combine all this and he becomes a negative on the court according to advance metrics

- 15 PER is the average for players and DeRozan has always been below it. He's never even been average in any year and yet, Colangelo is willing to give him almost 10 mill per year.

Just add him to Colangelo's list of over paid players....mediocre players love Colangelo

Fred Jones
Kapono
Jamario Moon
Turkoglu
Kleiza
Fields
Derozan

[Steve]

Yeah...think Bryan really jumped the gun on this one. Yes there would be the risk if they wait till he's an RFA that some team offers him a so-called "poison pill" contract but that is only realistically going to happen if he significantly improves this year.

Even then the Raptors would have had the flexibility to match and probably still come out with a better deal then they've gotten now by going early and overpaying.

It's even more frustrating to watch unfold given the previous player they did this with (Bargnani) appears to have relapsed in his offensive output again. Early days yet I know, but the only way he's worth what he's being paid is if he can get back to the way he was playing for the opening stretch last year.

[The J]

Isn't bidding against himself what BCo aways does? He did it with Jose, Bargs and Amir, so how is this different? I just hoped Stefanski was going to be the influence to get him to stop and learn to be more shrewd.