Paying for promise rather than production in a one-team auction

I’m not entirely sure about this DeMar DeRozan contract extension, to tell you the truth.

The four-year, $38 million deal, barely signed before a midnight deadline, is all about paying for promise rather than production, in my opinion, and that’s a dangerous idea, one that’s all too prevalent in the NBA but dangerous nonetheless.

What Bryan did, basically, was bid against himself for the services of a good – not great, just good – 23-year-old shooting guard who may or may not develop into something special as the years roll on.

DeRozan wasn’t going anywhere if the Raptors didn’t want him to – he’d have been a restricted free agent next summer, giving Toronto the right to match any free agent offer he got – and if the price went up then, well, the price would have gone up because he’d played well and then a decision could be made.

Look, I see some of the logic behind it.

They get some financial certainty for a few more years and, frankly, getting a player under contract who’d professed love for Toronto and a desire to stay is a pretty good message after the Raptors had been rebuffed and shirked by others in the past.

It gives Bryan a chance to say to all others “look, we take care of guys who want to be here” and he hasn’t a chance to say for a while.

And, who knows, maybe DeRozan blossoms this year, maybe his fourth year is his best and the contract doesn’t look as bad when next summer rolls around.

Maybe.

But maybe what happened was Bryan thought he had to do something and he did it. He paid a lot of money for a guy who remains a better athlete than a basketball player against an artificial deadline.

You know I don’t mind general managers taking chances, you make the moves you think will work and fix them as quickly as you can if they go south. I’d much rather that than have someone who just plods along trying hit singles when home runs win games.

But this is an unnecessary gamble. He’s paying for the future when he didn’t have to, he’s hoping DeRozan keeps getting better – and to the kid’s credit he did everything they asked him to do last summer – without knowing whether he will. DeRozan’s a pretty good player right now but there are flaws in his game that have to be addressed. He’s a solid kid, good in the locker room, liked by his teammates and coaches laud his work ethic. He’s a solid citizen but you don’t pay for citizenship, either; you pay for production instead of promise, or at least you should.

The money?

The money’s not crippling; it does reduce some of Bryan’s vaunted “flexibility” but there are other ways to free up room and even if you do, it doesn’t mean anyone will take it if your teams not any good.

It is overpaying? Probably, but that’s not the biggest point.

The biggest point is that they didn’t have to do it, there’s not an awful lot of track record that says DeRozan is going to be anywhere near special. He’s good, not great; and I don’t see great in his future.

Again, they bid against themselves when they didn’t have to.

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The things you learn on opening night.

The Sheepdogs were in the audience – and having a beer so that moves ‘em way up in the charts in my opinion – I’m told in the IGBT that they’re good and the Irregulars right.

This stuff I like.

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My Man Mike Wells walks over to me in the press room as we’re about to start scribbling and says, “what a giveaway.”

And here’s how he wrote it.

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Let’s get at some mail, okay?

Click. Write. Send.

Figure we’ll do a big mailbag Saturday because of the game that night so get in what you can. You know I love to hear from you.

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So, New York.

Or Brooklyn.

Or wherever the heck it is I’m going tomorrow, if I go.

LaGuardia’s barely open, half of Manhattan and the hotels there are without power – including the one the team’s staying at, as far as I heard last night – and it’s the weekend of the marathon so not only are hotels stupidly expensive, there’s a few tens of thousands of extra people trying to get to the city and stay there.

Oh yeah, this has got “good trip” written all over it, doesn’t it?

It was a wise decision the city made to postpone tonight’s scheduled Knicks-Nets game in Brooklyn (Bloomberg must have read this space yesterday) and, frankly, if they had made the same call about Saturday, I’d have been fine with it.

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Stevie Boy Russell had some help at the opener from Carlos, here’s the photographic evidence.

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What else did we see last night?

Couple of things.

They played hard, couldn’t buy a basket in the final four minutes – and they all kinds of good looks – and couldn’t catch a break when they needed it most.

They weren’t strong enough defensively to handle David West despite running three different guys at him when he posted them up repeatedly and not double-teaming him is fine; it’s not what they do, defence is a man’s game and some men have to play it.

But Valancuinas was active and aggressive and good; Lowry was outstanding and the more I see of Lowry and Calderon on the floor for short spurts, I like it.

The Pacers tried a handful of times to post up the guards and every time, either Calderon or Lowry were good enough not get beat, they got some help, were physical and it wasn’t nearly the issue – last night at least – that I thought it would be.

All in all, more promising signs than negative ones, we’re 1/82nd into a long, long season, if they keep playing like that, they’ll win their fair share of games.

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Okay, was way late today (rolling over after the 5 a.m. alarm for 90 minutes will do that) so we’ll have to figure out some new day-after-game stuff for after Saturday.

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Comments

[gjp]

David West beating them in one-on-one post ups is one thing, but later in the quarter they lost him repeatedly in terrible pick and roll defense.

Why is it that other teams run it so easily against the Raps whereas the Raps offense looks totally disorganized and a simple play like pick-and-roll disappears in the fourth quarter.

When it matters most, the Raptors, despite many personnel changes over the years, have consistently been a isolation, chuck-up-a-desparation-shot offense in the fourth quarters, when they've never had anyone who could actually deliver in isolation plays. Frustrating.

I think Casey is a better coach than previous coaches and personnel look better this year. I hope he can change that dynamic. It was exciting to watch what they could be in the third.

[jb]

@Thomas

"Fans get pissed at players for leaving."

Yeah, for great players like Bosh and Vince

"How about we be grateful Derozans even willing to play for us."

That is some serious insecurity complex. Rafael Araujo will play for us, why don't we give him $10 mill per. The reason we don't attract big time free agents is b/c we have a loosing franchise. Why would any good players want to come to a franchise that doesn't win.

Look at the Leafs, they can't attract big time free agents b/c they suck and the Leafs are considered a legendary franchise.

"Even if it doesn't pan out, it's not like we haven't given out huge contracts for potential in the past"

Yes exactly, we've given out huge contracts to players like Fred Jones, Kapono, Turkoglu etc and where has that gotten this franchise?

[LakeSimcoe]

"Officiating was fine"
Agree, so they called AB for pushing Hanbough in 2Q, while swallow the whistle when West pushed AB in the dying minute!
And I totally agree them to give the ball to Indy, since the host couldn't buy a basket....better let the fans return home early for picking candy....

So you are not high on DD's contract, what about Harden's 8000/5 years?

Blogger's note: Overpaid

[511]

I like DeMar and I wanted him re-signed but I sure didn't think it'd take ten-mil-a-year for four to do it ... and I would've been just as happy to take our chances on what-would-be this season, and then pay accordingly. Kind of impressed at your very direct call on this, Doug.

[Tim H.]

Hey Doug:
I know the situation is different from last year, when you had plenty of time to make fun of Not Grace's NFL picks.

But, with a year-to-date record of 43-60, I'd like to get a quick comment from you on his prognosticating abilities. How does his ability compare with your jinx?

Blogger's note: Still think I'm more effective

[david in NOTL]

In deciding on whether to extend Demar and for how much, I think BCo took into account the bigger picture that most critics are overlooking. Until the Toronto Raptors become a contender, the team will have to overpay American players to sign to play in Toronto. What might look like a shortsighted decision to many was probably carefully and intelligently considered.

[ad]

Derozan isnt even a good player. He is ok at best. The extension was idiotic and completely unnecessary. Not only are they overpaying a player who is not a core piece, they will have limited flexibility to improve the team this summer because of this. Why? Because Derozan wanted to here? So now were rewarding players that want to be here because its apparently a rarity? This team is becoming even more of a laughingstock under BC.

[Johnn19]

From the same draft: Extensions signed.

Harden $80 mil over 5 yrs @ $16 per
Holiday $41mil over 4yrs @ $10.25 per
DeRozan $38 mil over 4 yrs @ $9.5 per
DeRozans number does not look so bad in comparrison

Raptors are not going to win too many games shooting 36% as a team, with no one but Lowry and Calderon able to hit the side of a barn door.

90 points by Indy not a bad number, but 88 by Rap's is terrible, and being out scored 16-4 in the finish, and Hill beating Lowry, supposedly our best defender and shooting over Val was a super effort by him to score.

[CM]

Accurate Demar article. You have to pay players what they are worth, you can't build a winner with a salary cap by overpaying unless you are willing to go seriously into the luxury tax.

[Ovais]

I love your take on DeRozan. It's bang on. Kudos to you for stating it.

[Bo Klymkiw]

Kyle was great. Jonas, Andrea, Alan, & Amir were OK. Ed & José have to be better, too. Landry & DeMar simply did not compete. 5/9 playing well against a playoff team shouldn't win a game for you. Those last 4 have to get with the program.

[Brad]

Doug - this probably wasn't or never will be released, but the contract was said to be 'incentive based' but no one's really talked about that aspect. If it's a maximum of $38M provided Derozan does X, Y and Z - ie if he fulfills his potential - then it should turn out to be a good deal. I guess it depends on what percentage of the deal was based on incentives and what those incentives are based on. Although impossible to quantify ball handling - you can quantify rebounding, free throw attempts, passing and even defense. Maybe its more based on team achievements but would be curious to see how that was written (although ultimately, it's not of our business - just between DD and the franchise).

[Dan]

So far the two positives this year are Jonas and Lowry. If Bryan had his way Lowry would be a 38 year old with a three year max contract. I get Bryan came in and the Raptors had a great first year but it's been down hill ever since. Bryan has gotten worse every year since his first one. Yet he keeps getting extensions too. Congrats Demar, you just got 40 million dollars because Bryan believes in treating others how he wants to be treated!

[Steve]

"Until the Toronto Raptors become a contender, the team will have to overpay American players to sign to play in Toronto. What might look like a shortsighted decision to many was probably carefully and intelligently considered."

You don't become a contender by overpaying for the sake of it. Overpay when he's an RFA and the market tells you what he's worth. No way they would have ended up paying more even with a so-called "poison pill" offer from another team.

The mindset you put forward exactly why we now have $37 M locked up for 2014/15 on Bargs, Amir, Fields, and Derozan already. Talk about paying for potential.

Keep in mind if the Lowry experiment works out he has no contract for that year either. Plenty can happen between now and then of course, but that's exactly why rushing into it instead of making Demar earn it makes no sense with a year to go on his existing deal.

[DR]

DeMar is a hard worker, and I think he's the type of guy that would like to live up to his contract. Especially in Toronto where there is a lot of pressure to perform (can easily be seen in these comments) he will realise he has to step up. Its not like putting money a guy playing on 'potential' that averaged 16 a game last year is a bad thing (James Harden anyone?). I like the contract as it brings continuity to a team that has seen players come in go through a revolving door the last few years. It also guarantees this core is together for a while and growth from within is always a good thing.

[GM]

Well, that was a fun game. Would have been more fun with a win, though. Lots of love for DeMar DeRozan here! Who knew?! I agree completely with your take on the situation. I wonder, when you run into Bryan in the next day or so, will he say anything to you about it?

I thought it was kind of funny/sad last night during the intros. They usually introduce the fan favourite last for a big ovation heading into tip-off. Last night it was DeRozan and the reception couldn't have been more tepid. Boy, did they misread that! Maybe that explains his contract. Maybe they thought he was way more popular than he is and the fanbase would rejoice at the signing. Wrong-o. He's a nice young player, but that's about it. The signing makes him go from a hopeful to a he-better-damn-well-produce-now player.

Last night he was pressing all night, trying to force the issue every time he touched the ball. Maybe he was trying to justify the contract. But very few players are successful that way. Hopefully he settles down and takes what the defense gives him.

Still, though, I don't see the contract as "leaving them with two mediocre-good wings." You can bring up Turkoglu, Kapono or Fred Jones as examples of BC overpaying mediocre players, but he wasn't stuck with any of them. In fact, he moved them all making the team better. It's a tough job that requires risks. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. But it's not as if he'll be unable to move DeMar or even Fields if need be.

Did Casey play too many players last night, do you think? Would the outcome have been different if he rode a smaller core group longer? As for West, he had trouble guarding Andrea in the first half, picking up two fouls. How did that change in the second half?

Finally, Sheepdogs. Blech.

Blogger's note: Spoke to Bryan at length just now, he understood differing viewpoints, to a degree

[Lorie]

Great response, Doug, to the DeMar contract extension; a thorough and considered examination. Good for DeRozan, but I wonder if he's the sort of person who finds more pressure in now having to live up to expectations than playing hard towards a hoped-for reward. Can be a challenge both ways. And, yes, The Sheepdogs are very good. And one of the few bands who've given us a decent cover of this Neil Young with Crazy Horse classic.
http://youtu.be/epVjuvjCpuY
And, I like the three point feature that you've done in the past; I like the parameters and the focus it gives. 'Cause so much can happen so quickly in the games. As can be seen in the fabulous photos you linked to (and thanks for the links). Doesn't basketball provide the best pictures of all sports? That shot of Hill 'welcoming' JV to the NBA was...umm...vivid. And even those horrid glow-in-the-dark thunderstix photographed to a surprising beauty. Photographs of all kinds of players, fans, mascots, dancers - even media credentials - but not of the media themselves! You're a shy bunch, aren't you? :)

[Josh]

I don't hate the deal but there is certainly some risk to it. People looking at the 4 by $40 million, remember Andrea signed for 5 and $50 mil and 3 years later $10 million is less of the cap %-wise so its not even apples to apples. I think DeMar has shown more in his first 3 years than Andrea ever did in his first 3. Talk about paying for promise.

[Josh]

@jb - okay Fred Jones and Jamario Moon were signed for the mid-level exception just over the league minimum. Also, Turkoglu wasn't really an overpay he was just the wrong choice for this team - he was signed as a UFA on the open market and when it came time to move him it was easy to do so and the contract wasn't something no one would touch.

Since everyone is saying they bid against themselves, lets look at what would happen if DeMar went out and had a nice year. There'd be a team who would offer him 5 years, $65 million and all of the sudden you're stuck either matching a huge offer or letting him go for nothing. So how exactly is that only against yourself??

[Reuben]

Hi Doug

Love the blog and all but I think your article in today's Star made it seem as if Demarr was the main reason we lost last night because he missed a layup which from what I saw on tv actually wasnt as easy as you made it sound. From where I was sitting we lost this game way before Demarr became a factor, back when the second squad was in taking silly jumpers when we had a 7 or 8 point lead in the 4th instead of taking the ball inside.

Regarding the deal, I think Toronto Raptors GMs not just Bryan, have had a tendency to overpay over the years. $38 over 4 really isnt that bad when you consider some of the ridiculous deals that have been floated out in the NBA even under this new CBA.

Plus as someone else mentioned its great to have a decent player who actually wants to be here in Toronto. Yea thats a sad way to look at it but its the reality in recent years that we cant get guys to come here. Yes Demarr needs to be more consistent and who knows if he ever will be but this doesnt seem to be a tremendous risk in sewing up young talent for a few years.

[Marc]

Hi Doug,
Maybe this point was already addressed in a previous comment, but another downside to this contract happening now, is it removes the possibility of a dramatic upswing in his play based on the incentive of getting a new contract at the end of the year. Not sure that as an RFA, even after a big year, he would have earned a much bigger contract than Brian just signed him to. So if Brian had waited, maybe he elevates his game consistently for the year, actually getting the Raps a few extra wins + impressive playoff performance, all with the hopes of securing a deal. Then maybe we pay a little more to match another team's offer at the end of the year, but actually bought at least a year's worth of impressive play (though after the fact, if you get my meaning).

[james]

Is there any reason to think this contract cannot be moved if DeMar fails to develop as they hope? One thing you can't teach is that degree of athleticism. Before, er, jumping to a conclusion about this signing, I'd like to wait a bit longer than one game into a new season.

[jb]

@Josh

"okay Fred Jones and Jamario Moon were signed for the mid-level exception just over the league minimum."

That's overpaying for 2 guys who weren't NBA players or the 14th and 15th guy on the bench. BTW - they are both out of the league now, one is in China and the other in D-league.

"Also, Turkoglu wasn't really an overpay he was just the wrong choice for this team - he was signed as a UFA on the open market and when it came time to move him it was easy to do so and the contract wasn't something no one would touch."

It's good our GM has the ability to correct mistakes, but it is his mistakes in the first place. He keeps on making mistakes b/c he likes wheeling and dealing(he's like a crack addict) and has no patience for building a team the right way.

It's been 6 yrs for Colangelo and what do the raptors have to show for it...a mediocre team that is fighting for the 8, 9, 10, 11 spot. Along the way, Colangelo has help Miami put together a super team with Jermaine O'neal deal(free up cap space for Miami to get the big 3). He also helped Indiana a year earlier by trading Roy Hibbert for a washed up Jermaine O'neal.

Blogger's note: Your last two point are dead-wrong revisionist history.

[Michel G]

Smart teams usually sign their valued players after the third year of their rookie contract. All the players that showed value from the 2006 draft (e.g., Bargs, Rondo, Brandon Roy, Aldridge) were signed, all except Rudy Gay. And Memphis payed a STEEP price the following summer. BC wasn't bidding against himself (what does that even mean???). He's gambling. If it doesn't work, DeRozan's new contract is easily moved in a couple of years with only two or three years left on it. As a point of comparison: Taj Gibson [4 yrs, $38 million, 20.4 mpg, 7.7 pts, 5.3 rbs). I wonder what the Chicago fan base is saying about the Bulls GM. It's even going to cost them more money since they're going to have to amnesty Boozer next year (I would assume) and the $30 million remaining on his contract. I have no problem with DeRozan's contract. I'm not an BC apologist. But I gather I'm in the minority on this one.

[doug]

last nights game was entertaining I thought Dwane never coached his best game but all in all a good start tot the season...I have no problem whatsoever with the DD contract...it guarantees cost certainty, and he has improved each year as he is a gym rat and is more talented then many on here think...also people that say Raps are hitting the salary cap and into luxury tax territory your one not only dead wrong but two I could care less how Rogers/Bell spend there money why do people care about that?...also the Raps are salary wise in the exact same position when this contract kicks in as now, as it's really just exchanging Jose's money for DD's....so it's not a big deal at all also the revolving door player wise that is this franchise has to stop and have a nucleus moving forward....to me not much to get excited about it's just a solid business move for a franchise moving forward and the contract can easily be moved at any point in time if need be...cheers....