DeRozan's showing he's serious about this chase

We’ve been talking all week about what we’re learning about the HOTH as they try to figure out this “we’ve got to get serious about challenging for the playoffs” thing and most of what we’ve learned hasn’t been good.

No self-respecting team loses at home to Washington and at Cleveland in these circumstances and it’s going to take a lot more mental fortitude and some important-game experience before they get it right.

And then there’s DeMar DeRozan.

I think we’re seeing a shocking maturation in the young man that has to be the best thing fans have seen in a while.

I remember in Washington, in the locker room after the first game back from the all-star break, and he’s sitting there by himself at his locker bugging one of the staffers for minute-by-minute updates of the Milwaukee game that night.

He told me how much the playoffs meant to him and scoreboard-watching that early in the process told me a lot about how serious he was.

And he’s played like it since, hasn’t he?

He’s been team’s most consistent player (except for a 7-point blip against Memphis’s stifling defence) and he’s averaging about 22 points a game over the last seven.

But the most significant thing?

He’s playing hard all the time, both ends of the floor, logging big minutes and is doing what big-time players need to do: He’s trying to put his team on his back and telling everyone “I’ve got this.”

Now, he’s still got a ways to go and I think we can safely say, as we’ve been saying all along, that there will be important games in April but none in the post-season for him to experience.

But the way he’s played and the way he’s quietly become a leader on this team has to be reason for some semblance of optimism for the future.

He’s not doing anything openly demonstrative but he’s showing with his play a level of leadership, commitment and intensity that bodes well.

I’m still not sure they should have bid solely against themselves with that Halloween contract extension but this past couple of weeks is making that far easier to deal with.

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No, we don’t do nearly enough Canadian university basketball and that’s a bit of a shame.

But if you’re around Toronto this weekend, the Ontario final four is at Ryerson’s great facility where the old Maple Leaf Gardens was (it truly is an excellent venue) and if you’re so compelled, I’d suggest stopping by to see a game.

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My man Gumby gave me this name to listen to and he’s right, Rachel Sermanni can croon a wee bit.

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Except for about a 40-mile stretch between Erie and Buffalo with some icy slush and rain, it was a totally uneventful drive back and the Smelly Ford Taurus behaved quite well as it cracked the 200,000 kilometre level.

Next time, though, I’m talking about the drive to Cleveland would one of you please slap me in the head and remind me of this one?

Auburn Hills is no issue, it’s only about 3 1-2 hours from Casa Doug, add on that extra hour for Cleveland and it’s just a too much.

Thanks.

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Not sure how much mail there is to do but there’s always room for more and I have a feeling with the schedule the way it is (6 a.m. flight tomorrow, game tomorrow night, flight to San Francisco from Milwaukee on Sunday), we’re going to be all over the place with postings for a couple of days.

So send some (askdoug@thestar.ca) and I’ll get to when I can.

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Hang on a sec.

They gave out the CFL’s coach of the award yesterday? In February? The Grey Cup was in November, wasn’t it?

Good on the Argo guy for winning (big week for Argo stuff, no) but, really, I don’t quite get it.

Maybe it’s to give the league a media boost in a dead time of the year for football but, come on, that’s a bit of a stretch, isn’t it?

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Hmm. Just heard it’s Beebs’s birthday; wonder how many teens are baking cakes and trying to figure out how to get them to him?

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Seriously, is this ever going to end?

I see now there’s another group vowing to buy the Sacramento Kings, build a new downtown arena and keep the team out of the clutches of those who will move it to Seattle for next season.

It’s tiring and I’m dubious that they can pull it off and all that it’s really doing is toying with the emotions of fans in two cities.

Commissioner David Stern told us at the all-star break that there was going to be resolution in March most likely and it cannot come soon enough. I want to know where we’re traveling next year because, as we know …

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Oh yeah, with that stupid early wakeup tomorrow and a long week just done and one ahead, I’m totally coasting tonight.

We’ll be back with an IGBT tomorrow from Milwaukee.

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Comments

[Paul C.]

Doug, at what point does Casey give Barngnani's minutes to someone else? almost zeros across the stat sheet in 2 of the past 3 games, and 0.285 shooting in the last 5.

[Peter]

I respect your opinion about the Raptors playing meaningful games in April, but I do have to wonder about that. When the Raptor's started the season 4-19, they were 15 games below .500

Today they are 12 games below .500

The 8th seed in the East usually gets in with a record around .500 and Milwakee is sitting at .500 today. The case could be made that the season was over within that first month.

As well as the Raptors have played for stretches since that 4-19 start, they're only THREE games closer to .500 That's a reality that seldom get's mentioned.

To make the playoffs now, would be an accomplishment that I'm not sure any team has ever pulled off.

[GK]

@Paul C. I'm thinking Bargnani's minutes will be limited or eliminated completely unless, of course, we need a rebounding matchup against the mighty Luke Walton with the game on the line.

[cc]

Can you please not post anymore Andrea Barngnani's query about when his minutes will decrease, when to trade, when to defend, when to start rebounding, when to play better, when to shoot better etc. etc..??? And why Casey is still playing him.
It's tiring and we all know you cannot answer it, nobody here knows the answer and if they do, nobody here can do anything about it...

[Rob]

so talking about the extension,,, after seeing Derozan play this year what is his market value in your opinion?.

Blogger's note: Couldn't really guess, will depend on what the market dictated and we see who is out there. They might have him cheap but can't say

[Mike kovacs]

Why would teens care about a birthday for the BBC?

[john]

To say that the Raps bid against themselves for Demar is really, really simplifying things. They signed him for 4 years at $38 million. You could argue that Nicholus Batum is a similar player (3 fewer points, 1.5 more rebounds and 2.5 more assists as well as on a team on the playoffs fringe). He went the UFA route and was given $46 million over 4 years. So yes, the Raps gave DD a contract when no-one else could, but 3 hours later they would have lost that right to exclusivity and would have invited 29 teams to set his value.
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CC, amen. It is what it is.

[james]

Colangelo gets a lot of grief for moves made or not made (e.g., a certain number one overall pick) so he should certainly be praised for picking DeRozan after one year of college ball, an athletic workaholic with a drive to improve. I thought signing him to an extension made eminent good sense at the time. It still does.

[james]

Oh yes, lest I forget: I wanted to express appreciation to Penny and Hope Caper for their contributions yesterday. Maritimers can always be counted on to support the underdog, it's in their DNA. One of the many reasons I love the place.

[Rob.V]

Agree with James. A season or two from now DeRozan's deal will look like a steal (barring something unforeseen like an injury). He's already putting up Joe Johnson type numbers at 50% the cost.

As mentioned yesterday. The kid is good, he's still improving, and he cares! Was a great draft pick at 9.

In the top 10 the notables were Griffin, Harden, and Curry at 6 or 7 (can't recall).

I also believe Brandon Jennings deal (drafted 10th) on the open market this summer will prove Colangelo correct on this one as well.

In thinking about Derozans deal that was a bad move by Milwaukee. They should have ponied up about $10 million prior to October 1st for Jennings. His numbers resemble that of a Deron Williams (as I'm sure his agent will note). Now, maybe with the CBA's new landscape those types of dollars wont be there, but even George Hill makes $8 in Indiana so one would think the starting rate is $10 million... free agency is going to bump that at least 30%. They're now either going to (way, way) overpay Jennings... or lose him to a team (Mavs?) with cap space for nada!.

Not that you need my two cents however great work Mr. Colangelo on the DD signing... now if you could just get me a Gasol (expiring too) or a Rondo type in the off season I'll come here and heap more praise on you, I promise!.

[Andrew Gregg]

Hi Doug:

I know people are getting tired of bringing up Bargnani but I have a story suggestion...I'd read a feature on Coangelo's long connection with his only #1 pick. Think about it--Bargnani was the cornerstone of BC's master plan for the club. Along with Bargnani came Maurizio Gheradini, who was supposed to help open a pipeline of euro talent to Toronto. There was a plan in place and it never worked and now Bargnani--once so full of promise--is rivalling Vince Carter for hometown vitriol. And while BC has had some success with European players like Calderon and JV, the team looks like a lot of other teams in the NBA, built largely on talent from the US.

The arc of that story would make a great read. Maybe it's too soon to write it--might sound like too much of a Bargnani obituary. But it would help give some perspective to one of the most monumental flame outs in the Toronto sports world.

AG, Toronto

[DaveB]

@cc and James - Thank you.

Time will tell if DeRozan's deal was good. It depends on how he develops. It took it for what it was and if he keeps developing it will be a good deal.

@Peter. It depends on what you mean by "meaningful games in April". They may not be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs until April as they have 9 games in Appil. However, they would have to play over 500 ball the rest of the way and I am not sure they can do that.

I am also curious if many people have lost some level of interest in the team since the trade. I have as I don't like the three player team. I think the 3 man team is why the big's numbers have dropped off also, especially Amir and Jonas. For me, they just aren't as much fun to watch anymore.

[Steve]

@Rob V: The problem there isn't Milwaukee, Jennings thinks he is worth a max deal in free agency. He wouldn't take 10 million early and short circuit that process even if they offered it.

[Penny]

@DaveB - I'm with you. I still watch the games but definitely, not with the same interest. When they were on the West Coast before Christmas, I would either watch or tape the games even though some of them didn't start until 10:30 my time. When they are away next week, I'll simply look for the results the next day.

[D-Mac Ottawa]

"Meaningful games in April" can also refer to a team that's out of the playoffs race but is matched up to play the role of spoiler... you'll see the Raps close out the season playing Milwaukee, Chicago, Brooklyn, Atlanta and Boston. So those April games might be very meaningful indeed... especially for Milwaukee, Chicago, Brooklyn, Atlanta and Boston...
Cheers. Pound the rock!

[Peter]

@Dave B,

I call meaningful games the types of games where you have a realistic shot, not just a mathematical shot at the playoffs.

The Raptors have to win 75% of their games between now and the end of the season to get to .500 for the season. Only one team in the league has done that this season.

No team in team in the East has won 75% of their games, only San Antonio has done that.

So the question becomes, if you need to get to .500 to make the playoffs, are the Raps capable of playing like the absolute best team in the league between now and the end of the season?

The answer is no.

So if they're mathematically still alive in April, that doesn't necessarily equate to meaningful games in my book.

Meaningful games should mean that they have a realistic shot at the playoffs, not just a mathematical possibility.

I've said it before, and it wasn't popular, but the Raps season was over after that 4-19 start. Around that time, I did the math and realized that they had to play .700 ball to make it to .500

Instead they've played where they should have played, just a hair over .500 ball which if they had played like that all season, they'd be in the playoff mix right now. The 4-19 start ended their season.

Blogger's note: Outside of the lockout bastardization of a season year, check the win totals for eighth in the East over the last five or seven seasons

[Peter]

Blogger's note: Outside of the lockout bastardization of a season year, check the win totals for eighth in the East over the last five or seven seasons

That's fair. You're right. But right now the team that holds the last spot is at .500

My point is that it's a huge task to get there, and if the 8th spot goes to a team within a few games of .500, the Raps will have their 4-19 start to blame. They dug a hole so deep, that they came out of it needing to play around .700 ball to get them close. The best record that the Raptors have ever had is .573

It's a huge jump to ask this roster to play anywhere near .700 ball, and they might need to outdo even that.

[doug]

@Dave B I am far more a fan of this team moving forward since the trade and watch the games with much more enthusiasm....as we had tried that set-up before the trade for 5,6,7, years and it was just stale....in todays NBA or really at anytime athleticism wins...plus people are looking at this team as this is it, there is much more to come we just have the right building blocks in place moving forward....I am tired of any Barg's talk, BC needed to move him by the deadline, it's now a catch-22, sit him and lose any bargaining power or play him and hope and pray he gives you something...as ludicrous as it may sound I would even consider a buyout at this stage for him just so the franchise can move on....ok cheers...

[GM]

I'm with you, @DaveB and @Penny. Today I didn't even get to this blog until after midnight and didn't PVR the game. Just checked the result. I think @HopeCaper said it yesterday: they were winning ugly after the trade and now they're losing ugly. Not a fan of the three-man team.

[J]

@Peter:

Just to preface this rant, I do believe the Washington and Cleveland losses were the dagger to our playoff aspirations. That said...

If you did the math after the 4-19 start, then your math was wrong. 37 wins in 59 games is .627, not .700.

I don't mean to offend, but does it matter what you predicted when the team was 4-19? Some people were calling the season over after the 1-4 start; do the events of the past week effectively verify premature opinions cast months ago? That you are now probably proven correct on what was a very safe bet to begin with doesn't say much.

Before the loss to the Wizards, we were 4-games behind, and while that is certainly no small margin, the fact that we had two games left against the team we had to catch made it much more realistic than if we had no games left against them. It was the equivalent of needing to win two games against the Bucks (thus giving us the tiebreaker as well), plus winning two more games than them in the rest of the schedule. The second half of that requirement would have been no more difficult than how easily we just dropped two games against the Wizards and the Cavs. Our playoff chances were far from guaranteed, but hardly as melodramatic as how you put it (more on that later), and because the season was clearly not over before the Washington and Cleveland losses, your opinion that the season was over after the 23rd game is even more irrelevant.

Lastly, your constant apples-and-oranges comparisons to season-long records is both melodramatic and misleading. It isn't hard to understand that maintaining a certain pace (.750, for example) over an entire season is different from maintaining the same pace over a much smaller sample size. Yes, it is silly to think this current Raptors team could win 75% of its games over a 82-game schedule, but that was never the question. To put the analysis into perspective, even the .390 Raptors had stretches where their pace was .750 or higher (one was a 13-game sample, and the other was a 8-game sample). While, yes, neither is as big a sample as 24, it's at least more reasonable to compare 13 games to 24 games, than it is to compare 24 games to 60 or 82. Even more reasonable would have been to predicate our chances not on a lofty win rate, but on simply outperforming the Bucks down the stretch.

[Peter]

@J

Just to clarify (if anyone is still reading this) I said that I did that math around the 4-19 start. So I'm not sure if it was 26 games in. It may have been later than that, but it was early in the season.

Secondly, the Raptors have never had a 24 game stretch where they won 75% of their games. Ever.

This roster isn't built to do that. Basically we agree.

[doug]

@gm that statement is of yours is laughable...so in that case I guess what you are saying is you are not a fan of the last what 50 NBA champs...you have your own agenda and will push it no matter what...try a new approach as your to predictable much like the Raps of last 6 years...cheers...