Of analytics, relationships and the dump that is LaGuardia

And now, the debate will rage.

The very good Grantland story about the Raptors – and a whole bunch of other teams – using a relatively new technology as part of their analytics is sure to ignite a lot of discussion about the place pure analysis has in the game.

It’s an excellent piece, as is Cathal’s.

As you know, I’m a tad skeptical – I believe advanced analytics have a place in a very human game, I’m just not sure how big that place should be – but the thing I worry about is it driving some kind of wedge between coaches, general managers and the analytics guys who truly believe their analyses are correct.

Can you see a GM saying, “well, this is what the pictures show and the numbers say so we should do this and use these guys” and a coach saying, “well, at full speed in the heat of a game, you better get me different players because the ones I have aren’t good ghosts” and that conflict arising?

There is enough “creative tension” in many GM-coach relationships that an added level could be the one that causes and irrevocable split.

Now I’m not saying that’s the case in this situation at all but read that story closely and tell me if you truly think the front office and the coaching staff are completely and utterly on the same page. No way that any right-thinking person can come away with that feeling. It’s the elephant in the story.

Anyway, the story is about how much can be done with the information that the camera system supplies and whether the players who are being asked to do it are good enough.

It’s all well and good to suggest this guy should go there and it can be taught and hammered home in practice until everyone is blue in the face but we know all too well that once things get going on the court in full speed some teaching goes out the window.

This kind of stuff is a good teaching tool and an excellent add-on to the preparation process.

But coaching and teaching are human endeavours, you need relationships that are workable, coaches who know how to reach players by the strength of their personality and the manner in which their message is delivered.

The Xs and Os and ghosts are great but they are a small part; if you can’t deliver the message and if it isn’t heard, that’s a problem.

I guess we should laud the Raptors for being on the cutting edge with this technology; we should be worried that they put too much stock in it.

It’s a piece, perhaps a bigger piece than I’d care to admit but that’s all.

Any workplace – and I don’t care if it’s widgets or the NBA – works better when the leaders have the respect of those they are leading and if the personal relationships can make a group better than the sum of its parts.

And no workplace – and I don’t care if it’s widgets or the NBA – works as well as it can if any key components are at cross purposes.

It takes an awful lot of hard work to get along with everyone, to respect the opinions of others and to step outside yourself to see a view from another angle.

Wonder if that hard work is being done around this team?

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Okay, saw these guys at a game sitting courtside having a beer and that’s more than enough for me to pay attention.

And I guess it goes to Canada Music Week, no?

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Please add LaGuardia to the list of Worst Airports In The History Of Aviation.

Thanks.

Now, I know there are physical limitations and it costs a lot to refurbish these things but surely to all that’s good in the world the overseers of that dump could find a way to ensure travellers going terminal to terminal don’t have to clear security and then go through it again if they’re trying to move about.

A shuttle bus on the safe side of security, perhaps? A rail system maybe? A moving freaking sidewalk at least?

But, no.

If, say, you’re going from Air Canada to American (I know, I know. I messed up when booking for a variety of reasons that have mostly to do with the timing of us dumping American Express travel for Egencia), you have to leave one terminal, walk a kilometre or so and then – seriously – go through the whole rigmarole of taking your shoes off, your belt off, your computer out (only in a bin by itself or else!) and everything out of your pockets once again.

Makes no sense.

So, add LaGuardia to the list, please and thanks. One to be avoided at all costs.

Oh, and I did make the flight with about three minutes to spare.

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Yes, we will be here around 7 tonight for an IGBT. Join in, it’s fun.

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Hang on a second.

It’s the first freaking day of spring?

I’m seeing pictures of snow back home; spring, my ass.

(Although it could be about 16 C here today so I won’t whine too much)

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Air Canada tale?

We’re all loaded on the plane, the 11:15 a.m. one to New York, and we’re sitting patiently knowing we’re going to have to de-ice and one minute turns into 10 minutes and that turns into 20 minutes and we can’t figure out why we haven’t pushed back.

Well, seems we have no pilots; they’ve been held up travelling in from Ottawa and not only are we going to be weather delayed, we’re going to be pilot-delayed.

Gotta love those March 19 sleet/snow days, eh?

(Someone needs to have a word with those dopey groundhogs, I believe).

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Oh yeah, one more point on the analytics thing.

When someone jacks up some ridiculous three-pointer, no complaining. It’s what they want.

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All right, I see my morning unfolding with a huge cup of coffee and an NCAA bracket to give you folks something to mock tomorrow.

Hope no news comes out of shootaround, I have stuff to do.

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Comments

[doug]

good take on analytics...my point I make is this one when involved in a discussion on them and their worth and place in sport...where would a guy like Jack Morris stand in analytics, and in facr its what is keeping him from the HOF, lukewarm stats, but who would you want on the mound pitching a 7th game??...speaking of baseball this was interesting a ump called balls and strikes from behind the pitchers mound, out of necessity but they may be onto something there by accident...

http://espn.go.com/mlb/spring2013/story/_/id/9073006/tim-mcclelland-calls-balls-strikes-mound

[D-Mac Ottawa]

So, is it analytics that explains AA this season? Cheers. Go Jays!

[Peter]

One question about the analytics. The Zach Lowe piece mentions that the computer system takes into account what the coaches want the players to do. That shows that it's not purely a mathematical system applied to players tendencies and abilities, but that the system had to take into account what the coach has planned. For me, thus raises the question about the firing of a coach. You would think that it would make the firing and hiring of a coach at anytime other than the offseason a much more complicated task. Do you sense that to be the case?

Blogger's note: Sure, that's when coaching changes are best made

[511]

Cathal Kelly's piece *is* excellent. Reading the Grantland column yesterday, I put aside my initial reaction of worrying that things in Raptorland were as out of whack as what my gut was telling me they were.

A day later, I'm thinking that … one or two very focused meetings on the subject, down at the ACC, might be in order. And soon.

The question repeating in my mind is (to me) the obvious one: How (the heck) could any in the Raptors organization believe it to be OK (and so necessary) to be sharing expensive and (what should be) private inside intelligence with the rest of the world, including each and every opponent and competitor? Never mind, even, the (what should also be) obvious risk of dirty-laundry-aired-in-public from possible fallout.

I just don't get it, at all.

If I didn't know better, I'd say the house was in disarray.

[Namborghini]

Don't worry, they don't put to much stock into to it, as evidenced by the Rudy Gay trade (a player any advanced stat guy worth his salt knows to despise) and the the Derozan contract (a contract numbers guys deem irresponsible overpayment by about 7 million dollars), and the Andrea Bargnani deal (another huge overpayment according to the numbers) the raptors use of it is probably some where around he league average just judging by the types of player they pursue. Teams like Houston and OKC are who's decisions more closely mirror the analytics community.

[Steve]

Completely agree with Namborghini on this one. They obviously take advanced analytics into account but rightly or wrongly if they were treating it as the be all and end all there is no way the roster would look the way it does.

[Mike D.]

Interesting article by Cathal. Maybe I'm just slow, but I read the Grantland article yesterday and I have to admit I didn't perceive it as the Raptors opening the vault to anyone. First, it contained a total of 46 seconds of video so it's unlikely another team reading it would gain anything from it. Second, I watched each of the clips 2-3 times and my reaction was that the ghost/player differences seemed consistent with what Dwane has already said publicly (in particular, that Jonas is usually no more than a step away from being in the right place). Third, it occurred to me that if anything, the knowledge that the Raptors are bleeding-edge users might help Toronto be perceived as less of an NBA backwater.

So on the whole, this issue seems more like a tempest in a teapot.

[doug]

I also think analytics allow coaches a out so to speak...Farrell was bad for using them to make all his decisions it seemed but the biggest example of a coach abdicating responsibility for just a piss-poor decision was John Fox of the Broncos this last playoff season in the NFL...35/40 seconds or so left in 1st half, 2 timeouts I believe left and Peyton Manning at QB, what's he tell Manning to do, run out the clock, kneel down...absurd in and of itself but after the game his explanation was to paraphrase " the numbers showed it to be the right thing to do"...ridiculous what about logic?, the desire to win, momentum and they lost it was a coach using and hiding behind analytics, it is happening more and more so it isn't a tempest in a teapot, every game coaches have to wage the battle on how to balance them out....some better then others...cheers

[Lorie]

Hmmm. The real game vs the 'ghost' game? Some of the Raps' games can be frightful enough without adding the supernatural to the mix. Or have I misunderstood this analytics stuff? As far as how teams use the data (to what extent and to what ends - but hopefully, you know, it involves winning, the information is applied) is determined by people (at least at this point), which provides another layer of unpredictability. But, I wonder if how much fans embrace its use will be determined by why they watch sports in the first place: whether it's to see feats of amazing athleticism, or to follow a particular city or team, or to chart statistical achievements. I suppose for most of us it's a combination of all three things. And if analytics is used as a tool to inform our understanding of the game, well that's fun, too. But not as much fun as the instruction gleened from Doug during his in-game blogs. Case in point: does the analytics system incorporate the much-loved IGBT practice of the "DRINK!!!" command at an ill-advised Raptor 3-pointer? Hmmm...but on second thought, doesn't the analytics system call for even MORE three-point attempts? This analytics stuff might be onto something. :) Now, I don't know about the rest of you, but this news made me feel old. Today, Number Four Bobby Orr, becomes a senior citizen. Although, wouldn't you say his poor knees have been senior citizens for a very long time? Cheers! Go Raps! Go Jays! And congrats to the WBC victors, the Dominican Republic!

[Geoff Read]

I have to agree with Namborghini: if the Raptors were letting the stats geeks run their franchise there's no way they would've picked up Rudy Gay.

I also agree that sometimes coaches etc. have a sense of the intangible that can't be measured by stats. Surely, some sort of blended approach is best when assessing personnel.

Doug: care to offer us your take on the Globe and Mail front-page photo of Kaetlyn Osmond? I don't think I'm a prude by any stretch of the imagination, but I will say I was a bit shocked when I looked at the paper Monday morning.

[Jeremy]

I don't understand the resistance to these new analytics. Their purpose is to find the best, most efficient shots on offence and the defensive structure that produces worse, less efficient shots – that’s just common sense.

Of course it’s a human endeavour but human endeavours are often fraught with misperceptions, biases and unquestioned assumptions that these new analytics can be used to identify and counteract. If they are done in a scientific manner then these analytics are being tested for their accuracy and refined whereas human beings often cling to their preconceived notions (especially through unconscious methods such as confirmation bias) even after it is clear that they are wrong.

As almost any proponent of these new analytics will tell you, they are not the be all and end all, but another tool to make players and teams better. However these analytics are an incredibly important tool because their strengths are in areas where human visual analysis is weakest. Also, there is focus in these analytics on overall process rather than individual result. If that is used correctly it should lead to greater long term success because while you might fail a particular attempt if you have right process then over a large number of attempts you will have more success than if you’re using the wrong process.

[Rob.V]

Interesting piece on analytics, and I suppose all new information should be welcomed.

Having said this, I would argue that even if you and I studied where we should be in a Usain Bolt 100 Metre dash for say the next 50 years... we aint ever gonna get anywhere near there!!!

Look, there's only one Lebron James, only one Dwayne Wade. One Kobe, one Garnett. Actually, only a couple Shane Battier's for that matter on the defensive end. See the trend. It's no coincidence that the Heat is the team that mimics their ghosts the closest. Point being, you need the personnel.

Ghosts cant measure: Athletic Ability, Team Trust, Experience, and most importantly Talent.

Dwayne Casey's system has won a championship without analytics (that I am aware of) in Dallas and there aren't any ghosts in Toronto that are going to make up for a 7'1 athletic center in the prime of his career as was Tyson Chandler in Dallas (in a contract year no less).

Having said this, I am off to implement ghost tracking analytics for my sales team today so they know exactly where their assess should be on any given day!...and I'd better not find them here!

Hey dude, it's great that you are supporting Canadian Music this week. The Trouble & Daughter video yesterday represented everything that is "right" with music. Just a home made video of some kids trying to write great music. Good stuff!!

[L Graham Smith]

do we want to watch real people play live games, or guys simulate a giant video game controlled by coaching geeks? The NFL lost me when it was more a contest between assistant coaches with players as robots -- hopefully the NBA does not go the same route. So many boards are full of gamers who fail to realize real life is the reality and the video the simulation. Analytics as a diagnostic tool, ok but not as as a coaching strategy. Let hustle, heart and team still count for something in how the game is actually played.

[DaveB]

I started to read the grantland article on analytics and quickly became bored with it. I am not sure what the Raptors are using to make decisions, but it has to improve. At the beginning of the year, Bryan said the team was upgraded at every position. however, after 66 games, they are two (2) wins better than last year. That is not good enough. And they are arguably worst at the Point Guard position and the forward position than they were at the beginning of the year. They are marginally better (maybe just deeper) at the three than at the beginning of the year.

We know the rookies will be better next year. Other than that it will be interesting to see how they can improve when they are maxed out for cap space. They are just not a very interesting team to watch right now. The only players that you can in any way cheer for are Amir, Ross, Jonas, Acy and maybe DeRozan. Lowry and Gay definitely aren't warm personalities and I can't stand to watch their interviews anymore. I usually just fast forward through them. As one commenter stated a couple of days ago, Gay is "too cool".

I wonder if I am the only one that have lost so much interest in this team.

[David in Oakville]

Good Morning Doug,

Advanced analytics... you know who has been using advanced analytics and stats for well over two decades... the airline industry. ENOUGH SAID!

More, sure...

Did you notice of the 15 teams Zach Lowe identifies as subscribers to SPORTSVU, 8 are bound for the playoffs (presently) and 7 are not. So just over 50 % of these teams are currently seeing results. Which also implies there are 8 playoff bound teams that do not use their advance analytics and are seeing results anyway. And of those 8 teams, 2 (Miami and LA) have won 3 of the last 5 NBA Championships. Hmmmm... perhaps there is more to this game than just stats.
Pretty sure Pat Riley did not need advanced stats when he decided to put together James, Wade & Bosh.
I wonder if Mark Cuban used advanced stats when he let Tyson Chandler walk?

I will agree with one thing... I believe the advanced stats guys in Memphis were able to calm owners/management nerves about letting Rudy Gay go and gave them the confidence to make that trade. My guess, BC saw the opportunity to acquire a piece that he saw a need for and made the trade in spite of the stats I am sure he had access to.

[Bruce]

Doug, hope you have LAX on your list of horrible airports. Arrived on a flight from Australia and was transferring to a Toronto flight in the same terminal and I had to leave the secure area and reenter and this on the Friday of the US Thanksgiving weekend. Didn't have to worry about what I was going to do with my four hour layover. In general, I find US airports to be brutal compared to what exists elsewhere. They just have not spent the money in the last twenty years to keep them current.

[capt kirk]

This analysis would be great for a player like Amir if it can tell a player the way a missed shot will come off the rim or backboard. There seems to be a lot of variable outcomes that would have to be intergrated to have a player doing the right thing more than 90% of the time. The idea of shooting more three point shots is exactly why this team is not a playoff team. The coach is dealing with human beings not robots.

[Jeremy]

L Graham Smith you are missing the point. Hustle, heart and team are wasted when they are used inefficiently and incorrectly. These new analytics don't negate hustle, heart and team they can help those things flourish. Advanced analytics are used (by the best franchises in the NBA like Miami, Dallas, Oklahoma City and San Antonio) to put the skills, athleticism, hustle and heart of their players into the positions that gives them the best chance to win.

[Stuart in Halifax/Dartmouth]

Hello Doug (and all assorted Irregs),
While you are working on your brackets I thought I'd let you know about a local Hfx March Madness that's happening out here on the East Coast, Beer vs Beer and Bar Snack vs Bar Snack, the final faceoff between the champs of each side (Best Beer vs Best Bar Food). There are quite a few local favourites on the Beer side so may not be as applicable as the Bar Food side. Anyways, good luck with the Brackets and Cheers!

http://www.thecoast.ca/halifax/get-in-the-game-march-madness-2013-beer-vs-bar-snacks/Content?oid=3752649

[Mike kovacs]

Analytics tools are limited, by default, by the people who program them. The tool will say that a player ought to be in a certain postion because it has been programmed by someone who says thinks they ought to be in a certain position. These 'tools' have been around in Medicine for 30 yrs, they were supposed to replace doctors. It never panned out because every person and situation is unique ayou cannot possibly pre-program the billions of possiblities. Would the analytics predict when someone is having an off-night or has a touch of the flu, or fell asleep in practice and missed their instructions, or is in foul-trouble, etc etc?

[james]

Lorie: "Hmmm. The real game vs the 'ghost' game? Some of the Raps' games can be frightful enough without adding the supernatural to the mix." As Jon Stewart might say: "Boom!"
That Bill James has a lot to answer for: From an eccentric in the wilderness to the Red Sox front office. Statistical analysis may work better in a relatively static game like baseball than in the more fluid context of basketball. I tend to agree with Rob.V that all the numbers in the world seem unlikely to derail the Heat.
The WBC is a wonderful event. I find it very neat that a small impoverished Caribbean nation could so thoroughly dominate a global competition. Somewhere Orlando Cepeda and the Alou brothers are smiling.

[D-Mac Ottawa]

Rant from left field, anyone? Am I the only one who thinks Canada Post has become the country's biggest joke? Am I out to lunch in seeing a "company" that looks like its on it last leg, running on some very wonky fumes?
In the past couple of weeks, we've had three different sets of neighbours "deliver" our mail back to us from their addresses. We've had tax and government forms go missing, both incoming and outgoing, this year and last. We haven't had the same delivery person two days consecutively in months now. I found a piece of neighbours' mail laying in the snow two days ago. It took three days to deliver an "overnight Xpress" package last week – and the required signature was never signed for (just what did we pay for with this "service"?). A Christmas card was returned to me as undeliverable... two days ago – it's mid-freaking-March, people! – and it was stamped as "undeliverable" on January 22 (it was originally mailed on December 9)...
What's the over/under on Canada Post surviving to see 2020? (okay, pun intended) Maybe they need to invest in some analytics... can't imagine how far afield their "ghosts" are straying, if they can find them at all.
Okay, thanks, I guess I feel better now. Cheers. Go Jays!

[Cluck Kent]

Like any other tool, if analytics are used appropriately, they'll help. If not, they'll hurt. Accountants can help control costs within an organization but for the accounting department to create a new policy that all sales calls should be made over the phone or via email to save money, the resulting drop in revenue from lost relationships will more than negate the positives from reduced cost. Are the Raptors analytics guys overshadowing the coach and creating internal turmoil? I don't know, but just because they laid out an article explaining how they are using analytics doesn't provide me with enough information to draw a conclusion. Where normally I enjoy Cathal's writing and unusual perspective, I found this article being deliberately provocative. And I really don't like that kind of journalism. Stick to the facts. Maybe the organization is comfortable enough with their chemistry that they felt opening this komono wasn't an issue. I guess only time will tell - or more thorough journalistic research.

[Nick M]

@D-Mac
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My wife and I have been wondering for months about the mail.
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Glad(?) to hear we are not the only ones. We've had the same problem ever since last summer. It seems on average every other week we find ourselves delivering a neighbour's mail.
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And also agree on the delivery person. For the first three years we had the same mailman and never received any stray mail. Since, it has been a revolving door.

[Andrew Gregg]

Hi Doug:

I started watching sports when I was a schoolboy so I could avoid doing things like math. Now you're telling me that sports is math. Thanks a bunch.

AG, Toronto