Kinsella joining Rocco Rossi team!

UPDATE: Early Monday Kinsella confirmed that he is indeed joining the Rossi campaign. Details to follow.

Rumours are swirling that the Rocco Rossi team will announce, as early as its Monday morning policy announcement, that it has landed a big political fish for its campaign team.

Rossi's campaign certainly needs an energy drink. The Star-Angus Reid poll released Saturday is only the latest putting the well-funded Rossi in fringe territory, behind publisher Sarah Thomson who is running a shoestring effort out of her Women's Post office.

Eight months into the race, there aren't that many big fish left in the pond. The obvious name is Warren Kinsella, who seemed to be sitting in the bullrushes waiting to see if his choice - John Tory - was actually going to sit this one out. Tory confirmed that earlier this month.

Kinsella and Rossi are both, of course, well-connected federal Liberals. A rumour very early in the campaign had Kinsella signing on. The response from the Rossi camp was: "We wish!"

Then, you have Kinsella's blog posts dumping on right-wing frontrunner Rob Ford, or "Rush Ford" as Kinsella calls him, and pooh-poohing the idea that Ford has anything like a lock on the mayor's chair. The die-hard politico seems, understandably, to be champing at the bit to get in the fray and fight Ford.

Then, you have Rocco's recent replacement of campaign manager Sachin Aggarwal with veteran Conservative organizer Bernie Morton. If Tory had jumped in, Morton was going to run his campaign.

And what does Kinsella think of Morton? From Kinsella's blog:

Rocco running last? If he truly is – and, as I recall, John Tory was at about three per cent for much of the pre-Fall period during the 2003 mayoralty campaign, and then went on to nearly win –  then signing up my friend Bernie Morton was the way to go (and so too keeping on Sachin Aggarwal as policy chief).  Bernie is a campaign manager from the Don Guy/John Rae school – quiet, calm and strategic, and the sort of person you want to have in your corner when the going gets tough.

So, even if Kinsella doesn't take a formal position with the campaign, it seems unlikely he won't be bending his friend's ear.

And finally, also from Kinsella's blog, this entry from last Thursday:

Made a decision. Fed up.

Making a move.

Stay tuned.

We will. If it's true, this promises to be another twist in a race full of them and which, according to popular wisdom, doesn't really start until Sept. 8.

The question has been put to Kinsella and the Rossi camp. We'll let you know when we know.

 

Online tool helps cyclists plan routes

It works for transit, why not cyclists?

This month Toronto's online cycling newsletter, Cyclometer, points to a neat little online tool called Ride The City. It lets you map a route online and shows which sections have bike paths or lanes. You can even select a safe, safest or direct route.

You can drag the little green cyclist on your screen to figure out what streets are nearby your destination.

Remembering the good times courtesy Newstalk 1010

Mayor David Miller's last council meeting got off to a dry start this morning. The first hour or so was bland housekeeping issues. Then no one stepped forward to discuss a report from the integrity commissioner on Rob Ford. And other than that, council is hopefully (but doubtfully) wrapping up debate on "one city, one bylaw," which would harmonize the way city hall evaluates and manages zoning across the 416.

So kudos to Newstalk 1010 for reminding us all of the more exciting times.

Streetcars the wrong way to grow, says Sheppard group

Rob Ford's lead may have eclipsed the talk about any actual issues in this year's city elections. But the Save Our Sheppard (SOS) community group still wants to discuss Toronto's transportation future.

The group wants the city and province to abandon plans for light rail, also known as streetcars, on a dedicated right-of-way along Sheppard Ave. That line is the first of the Transit City projects expected to be complete. SOS wants it scrapped in favour of a subway and the group is taking the issue to the thoroughfare in question.

It will host a Transit Awareness Blitz on Wednesday, September 8th from 07:15 to 08:45 a.m. along Sheppard at three intersections: Victoria Park, Warden and Kennedy. Some pro-subway mayoral candidates have been invited but so far only Rocco Rossi has confirmed he will be at Victoria Park during the blitz. Sarah Thomson's handlers were enthusiastic but haven't promised yet to deliver her to Warden that morning and, organizers are still awaiting word on Rob Ford's appearance at Kennedy which, after all, is a very long way from Etobicoke in rush hour.

Rocco's campaign manager leaves

As a new poll shows the candidate struggling to crack double digits, Rocco Rossi's campaign manager, Sachin Aggarwal, has been removed.

According to a provincial Liberal source, Aggarwal, a former deputy chief of staff to Michael Ignatieff, had been encouraging Rossi to step aside. But the campaign has already raised 7 figures and Rossi wants to stay in it until the end, despite his lackluster polling history. There are also questions about where Rossi support would land. Judging by the earlier summer polls, support would split between George Smitherman and Rob Ford, essentially canceling each other out.

Conservative Bernie Morton has been named the new campaign manager. Aggarwal is now the director of policy.

"I am excited to join the Rossi campaign and eager to tell Rocco's story. Our goal is victory. Like most Torontonians, I believe real change is needed at City Hall. It is time to restore people's faith in City Hall with a leader who is known for his honesty, integrity, overcoming tough challenges and getting the job done. That person is Rocco Rossi." — Morton said in a statement issued by the Rossi campaign

Rossi called keeping Sachin and gaining Morton a "win-win."

So what does it mean for the race?

The Sun's Joe Warmington has written a column accompanied by the headline: Nothing sticks to Teflon Ford.

"He may have lied about a few indiscretions but when it comes to his claims of going into City Hall as a relentless, common sense tax chopper, people seem to believe Ford will end the fat-cat spending party."

Warmington goes on to cite a Sun online poll, which asked readers whether they cared or not about the recent drug charge/did-he-lie-about-it? revelation. The unscientific but telling results: 84% didn't care.

The Sun typically has one of the more conservative readerships and has given favourable coverage to the Etobicoke candidate (although not today), but judging by the chatter on Twitter, Facebook, the coffee shop I stopped at en route to work today and the Star's own comment section - I think it is entirely possible this poll is more than a blip.

Heck, if the National Post is right, Ford is Toronto's Barack Obama. 

Some have predicted that between the immigration controversy and Thursday's scandal, Ford's campaign may finally have hit a bump it can't plow threw. But with Ford's clear "stop the gravy train" message and a bona fide track record for helping residents navigate city hall bureaucracy, I'm not so sure.  

Behind the Ford immigration uproar

A few observations about the Rob Ford immigration/refugee uproar.

Readers, viewers and listeners might believe this was a spontaneous clash of ideas borne of vigorous debate. In fact, good politicians go to such debates with a plan - an issue, an accusation or a rival's past statement that they hope will frame the event and gain them momentum or halt that of their opponent.

George Smitherman did it back in May at the Toronto Real Estate Board dust-up when he attacked Ford for past "disgusting" comments about people with HIV/AIDS.

Ford largely deflected the HIV/AIDS accusations, accusing his main rival of reaching far back in time for mud to fling. Ford also walked away from a post-debate scrum where the other candidates were pummeling him. The issue defined the debate, and Ford had to explain some of his past comments, but he didn't add any new fuel to the fire.

Smitherman did it again Tuesday night when he used the uproar over a ship full of Tamil refugees landing on the B.C. coast as the pretext for a question about Ford's views on immigrants and refugees, specifically asking if it was true Ford has said Toronto should be a "refugee-free zone."

This time, Ford did rise to the bait in what appears to have been a rare misstep for a man who has run a disciplined, effective campaign.

Instead of doing his I'm-under-attack 40-yard stare and then shutting down the discussion with: "Immigration is a federal issue. We've got real city problems to fix and you're talking about refugees?", he offered this:

“We can’t even take care of our own 2.5 million. We should take care of the people we have now before bringing in more.” 

Smitherman thundered back that, if Canada had turned down refugees in the past, it would never have absorbed the Irish during the potato famine or Jews during the Holocaust.

Do you think he thought that up on the spot? Within minutes, Smitherman's spokesman Stefan Baranski was tweeting that immigration was the only news out of the debate.

When the show ended, it wasn't clear if the mud would stick. But Ford's rivals and their camps worked late Tuesday night and, early Wednesday, to ensure it did, launching almost co-ordinated attacks.

In a bid to douse the matches his rivals were furiously throwing at the immigration issue, Ford's camp issued a release dismissing the criticism as mere "spin and political gamesmanship."

But at a morning scrum outside city hall, Ford told reporters: “I’m going to play the cards that I’m dealt and you know what? More people will come. But in a perfect world, what I’m saying is that I would like to deal with the 2.5 million first."

So, in a perfect world, Toronto would get no more immigrants? That's a far cry from the city's motto of "Diversity our strength."

Rocco Rossi confronted Ford in front of a TV camera. This time, Ford did walk away.

There's nothing wrong with Smitherman planning an attack or Rossi trying to capitalize on it. But it's instructive for voters to know tactics when they see them. Usually, the spinners and tacticians issue a silent plea: "Don't look at the man behind the curtain."

In fact, Ford tried to frame the debate by announcing that he would scrap the city's fair wage policy -- trumpeting that he was honouring CP24 with a real announcement. He successfully forced the others to address an issue that plays to his cut-crazy-lefty-spending message. It wasn't, however, attracting any TV cameras on Wednesday.

You can see the narrative Smitherman's camp is weaving. It will say that, despite Ford's claims to be a "social liberal", he is in fact anti-gay and anti-immigrant and unfit to lead a diverse, cosmopolitan city toward anything except embarrassment. There are the HIV/AIDS comments, Ford's self-inflicted gay marriage gaffe and now the immigrant issue. Expect that to figure prominently in the Smitherman ad blitz to be launched next month.

But to the real question - will this latest brush fire cost Ford support? It seems unclear. His camp has taken great pains to portray his supporters as ethnically diverse so an apparently anti-immigration message is discordant.

Ford, however, has managed to become a bit of a Don Cherry figure. He can say things that run counter to the beliefs of many in the audience, sometimes against the facts themselves, but people seem to admire him for having the guts to offer up an unapologetically unvarnished view.

There are cynics who say the immigrant uproar could actually gain Ford votes. In this odd election, don't bet against it.

Councillor candidate makes sweet introduction

When you're running against an incumbent you need to get creative to attract media attention.

So kudos to you candidate Justin Di Ciano for your delicious cookie hello. Well played sir. Now what are you going to do for Etobicoke-Lakeshore?

Smitherman goes after Ford online

 

By his own admission, the bombastic Rob Ford has stepped in it on more than one occasion, like the time he said: "Those Oriental people are working like dogs" or  when cyclists get hit by a car "it's their own fault."

Well now his main mayoral rival, George Smitherman, has taken those gaffes and put them on postcards: Greetings From Rob Ford's Toronto. Smitherman's campaign has launched a cheeky attack website - Ford-on-Ford - aimed at Ford. The site's red, white and blue design mirrors Ford's campaign branding.

Recent polls, including a controversial one Thursday, have shown the Etobicoke councillor is far out in front.

New poll: Rob Ford way out in front.

Rob Ford has officially broken away from the pack in the mayor's race. A just released poll by Pollstra Research, which recently surveyed 432 Toronto residents, shows the Etobicoke councillor at 37.6%.

George Smitherman came in second at 28.7%

Joe Pantalone earned 15.5% of the decided vote.

Sarah Thomson was 10.3%

Rocco Rossi earned 7.9%

About a third of those polled said they were undecided.

Although it is a small sample size (the margin of error is just under 4%), the numbers seem to mirror what internal candidate polls have been saying for weeks: Rob Ford is the man to beat.

The Pollstra data also showed that Ford holds the vast majority (65.7) of voters who identify as federally Conservative. Liberal party support split between Ford (36.8) and Smitherman (34.2). Pantalone earned 36% of NDP support, with Smitherman pulling 32% and, perhaps surprisingly, Ford earned 20%.

Pollstra Research is relatively unknown in the industry. Its website, garnered more than a few curious looks yesterday from both media and political types. They have most notably done internal polling for Giorgio Mammoliti during his bid for the mayor's job. Several industry insiders have questioned the margin of error used. In a late Thursday interview, president Josh Justice said he absolutely stands by his numbers.