No Way Out

So sayeth John Ferguson;

"You don't win the trade deadline if you don't win the Cup."

That quote, interestingly, came two years ago, just before the 2004 trade deadline. The Leafs had made a series of acquisitions, some of them costly, to acquire Brian Leetch, Ron Francis, Calle Johansson and Chad Kilger. Ferguson was being heaped with praise for the Leetch deal in particular, although he was the one who cautioned others with being too optimistic about what the veteran defenceman might be able to do with the Leafs.

Thus the "win the trade deadline" quote.

Then, the Leafs were trying to win the Cup. That's what they said, and, in case you missed it, it didn't quite work out that way.

Now, this is a hockey club in a very, very different position. This is a franchise, whether it chooses to admit it or not, that is on the precipice, close to falling over the edge into the bottom third of the league, a neighbourhood which it might occupy for a very long time.

The franchise centre, Mats Sundin, is 35. The goalie, Ed Belfour, appears to be finished. The No. 1 defenceman, Bryan McCabe, will be 31 in June and is holding a gun to the team's head for a contract figure his talent cannot possibly support.

There's considerable youth and promise, but outside of goalies Justin Pogge and Tuukka Rask, it appears to be mostly support staff-type players.

In terms of defencemen and forwards, there isn't a sure fire first liner or top tandem blueliner in the organization. Maybe, just maybe, Alex Steen could yet emerge.

What that means is there is no easy answer to this week's trade deadline. Dumping players for futures is always interesting, and the oft-voiced concept that Leaf fans would never stand for a rebuilding process is laughable.

Adding big-name players in a rash bid to make the playoffs makes no sense, unless the addition doesn't substantially touch the modicum of young talent the team already has.

But it doesn't have to be an either/or thing. There are always possibilities in between at the trade deadline for teams looking carefully.

It's like the Tomas Kaberle contract, five years at $4.25 per. Those who defend it argue passionately that the risk of losing him to free agency this summer makes the contract logical.

But that assumes there was no other salary or term Kaberle would accept. It assumes it was a one-way negotiation.

Similarly, there are moves the Leafs could make by Thursday that would a) provide evidence Ferguson is still alive and breathing and b) come somewhere between the extremes of dumping players and sacrificing top prospects and picks for expensive veterans.

Look back to the '04 deadline. One of the players the Leafs were looking at back then was Anaheim backup goalie Martin Gerber as insurance for Belfour.

Ultimately, Ferguson and then Ducks GM Bryan Murray couldn't arrange a deal, but three months later Gerber went to Carolina for Tomas Malec, now an Ottawa farmhand, and a third round draft pick the Ducks used to select Kyle Klubertanz, a University of Wisconsin player who seems to have dropped right out of sight.

Imagine if the Leafs had been able to make that moderate-type deal then? Gerber has turned out to be a front-line player, something the Canes must have seen.

The Leafs can't solve their mounting problems at this deadline, and it appears more and more likely there's nothing they could do to help the team make the playoffs.

So you look for other things. It's not "winning the deadline," but it's something.

Comments

[Roberto]

I rarely agree with Damien Cox but on this occassion he is absolutely correct. This franchise, unless some front line talent with size and speed is added , is destined for the nether regions of non playoff hockey for years to come.
Steen may become a first line player, Wellwood possibly a front line center, but beyond that the organization is sorely lacking in forwards with that kind of ability. Coliacovvo (or however you spell it) looks like the real deal but seems to be injury prone and you can never count on guys like that to build a team around.
This fan at least would tolerate a rebuilding phase, if it was clearly defined as to what "the plan" was and it seemed reasonable. No more vague references, give us some meat to chew on otherwise we can only assume there is no plan.
I say trade your assets now for players with upside or first round picks and take your chances on development. Yes MLSEL will miss the playoff gate this year but in the long run it will pay off with a team that has a legitimate shot at the big prize.

[Flam Flim]

The Leafs ought to do something to change the face of this club. A coaching change is in order come golf season (early this year!).

But as soon as they do get rid of Pat Quinn, they ought to do the same to Richard Peddie who I believe is to blame for the Leafs current malaise. Once Quinn had the GM/prez title wrestled from his contract, Peddie started tinkering with the hockey and basketball operations and now look where both are at.

Insofar as the players, man, I'd unload the majority of them: Belfour (to the Oilers for futures), McCabe (to NYR for goalie Kevin Weekes would be nice), Antropov, Domi, and O'Neill to any sucker out there, and I'd drop Belak, Czerchowski (sp?), Khavanov, Klee, and ... dare I say it ... Darcy Tucker.

Tucker because he'd be valuable to other teams thus they ought to get a solid return. And the guy is still Sideshow Bob as far as I'm concerned. Top scorer or not, he's also the top whiner, crying to the officials after each and every whistle. What a liability!

[Joe D'Agostino]

I’m not a Leafs fan but it seemed that they had a competitive team on paper at the beginning of the season. It appeared that they made some shrewd moves by picking up Lindros and Allison pretty cheaply. They also had Belfour, McCabe, Sundin, etc. to round out a seemingly solid line-up.

That line-up could have competed in the old NHL. Pre-2005, big, lumbering forwards and defensemen who couldn’t skate but who could clutch and grab thrived. (The New Jersey Devils were very successful with this style of play.)

With the new NHL rules in effect this year, speed and finesse were emphasized while clutching and grabbing were finally being called as penalties. Surprisingly, the referees have stuck to their guns and continue to call these infractions.

The current crop of Leafs simply can’t compete in this new era whereas teams like Ottawa and Carolina are benefiting from the new rule changes. The time has come for the Leafs, and teams like them, to become sellers and begin anew.

[Arthur]

I don't understand the point of this story. "There are moves the Leafs could make", moves that aren't extreme, either full-fledged "rebuild phase" or "Cup-run" mode?

This blog entry is basically saying the Leafs aren't very good this year, failed in the past at the deadline ("didn't win") and don't have any superstars coming up through the system for the future.

And - despite all that, the Leafs should look for "something" at the trade deadline this year.

Like what, for instance? I'm not trying to slam Mr. Cox, but this is just about the vaguest article I've seen him produce. He openly advocates no extreme moves on the part of the Leafs, but nonetheless suggests action of some kind, if for no other reason than to confirm JFJ is alive?

When I'm reading the hockey analysis of one of Canada's best-known sportswriters, I want to read about possible action plans, not, "do something, already."

[Gordon Fulthorpe]

Obiously , Damien Cox has had a rather jaded and cynical view of the Maple Leaf hierachy for a considerable time . Sometimes I have felt that he has presented a one-sided opinion of their ineptitude unfairly . However , now is the time to reconsider his opinions .
The Olympics demonstrated a Canadian team that was too slow and too disorganised . The Finnish and Swedish teams demonstrated both speed and cohesiveness. The Canadians were chosen by Gretzky and coached ( ? ) by Pat Quinn . All in all a rather sad combination .
Sundin is 35 and slipping . He would be a great centre for some playoff team with some wingers, and fetch a good return . Belfour could ( possibly ) bring in a young player or 2nd round draft pick , but even dumping his salary would be worth it . Berg , Klee , McCabe ( was anyone less deserving of a $5 million p.a.contract ? Maybe the number "5" equates to the number of mistakes per game that he makes ), Allison , Antropov, Domi , Belak are all totally expendable . All should go .
Quinn should go . He favours the veterans , ignores the young talent . Players just don't listen to him anymore .
The young defencemen did not look out of place , nor does Stajan , Wellwood and Steen . Bring them up , together with Paul Maurice .
Even if the team , by some miracle made it into the 1 st round of the playoffs , the expression " sacrificial lamb " comes to mind . It would be an ugly and ignominious end to this sorry season . I have suffered for nearly four decades of futility being a Leaf fan . This team is dying . It needs radical surgery , then it needs a few free agents in the off season . Do it now ! " Out , damned spot , out I say " With apologies to W.S. and Macbeth !

[Andrew Spencer]

Would ya just listen to all these blinded by the marketing hype Leafs fans ... yeah, Damien Cox is a bad guy and a cynic for telling it like it is.

Meanwhile, for all you people denying this hockey club sucks, I suppose you must also think Toronto is in the running to win the Cup this year. Gee, I didn't realize there were Leafs season ticket holders posting here ...

[The Meatriarchy]

There is one truth in this article: Leafs fans would be willing to settle for a re-building process.

What Mr. Cox doesn't mention is that there is a specific group that WONT settle for a re-building process and that is the local sports media (including himself).

Want proof? After a promising but injury riddled season last year the Blue Jays management was absolutely hammered by The Fan 590's Bob McCowan and a group of Toronto sports writers on his show. If you had listened to it you would have been forgiven for thinking that the Jays went the entire season without winning a single game and had zero prospects in the system. This is when most Jays fans were very optimistic on the team.

Ditto for the Raptors. The team has a decent young nucleus and will improve over time but they get no slack at all from Toronto media who only seemed to like Isaiah Thomas ( I will leave others to speculate why that was)

These same folks have been heaping praise on the Carolina Hurricanes this year as being brilliant for figuring out the new NHL. Fact is the 'Canes were an absolutley horrid franchise for the past 5 years. Five years of high draft picks adds up.

I am prepared to wait. I would bet Mr. Cox isn't.