Mail Bag
Click here to send Damien a question and he'll answer a selection in his mail bag every Thursday in this space.
Q: You say the Leafs will have $10 million to play with next year. How so? Who is already under contract, and how many players do they need to sign with that remaining $10 million? Also, does that $10 million take into account Sundin's club option? Could that number potentially rise above $10 million by trades? And realistically, in your opinion, which free agents this summer do you think the Leafs will actually go hard after, and which ones do you think they SHOULD go hard after. Personally I think they need a scoring winger (i.e. a Selanne-type player, who they could have had for cheap coming out of the lockout) and a centre. Thoughts?
Joey Wilson, Toronto
A: Wow, could I give you the history of the franchise, as well? That’s a lot of in-depth questions for a mail bag, so I’m going to give you the reader’s digest version. Apologies if it’s insufficient.
Basically, the Leafs can have however much money available they want to make available. Other than a small group of players that includes Bryan McCabe, Darcy Tucker and Tomas Kaberle, they have flexibility on any number of contracts, be they players who could be traded or others headed for free agency who may not be resigned.
If you believe the club will retain McCabe, Kaberle, Pavel Kubina, Hal Gill, Andrew Raycroft, Tucker, Mats Sundin (at whatever numbers), Alex Steen, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Kyle Wellwood, Matt Stajan, John Pohl and Wade Belak, then you work from there.
Their key decisions involve Carlo Colaiacovo, Ian White, Nik Antropov, Mike Peca and Jeff O’Neill.
Assume they don’t re-sign Peca and O’Neill, at least not at their current combined $4 million. A charge for the retired Tie Domi goes away this summer while one for the bought-out Ed Belfour still has a year to go, the cap is likely to go up to $48 million or higher and the plan is to rework Sundin’s contract to produce more favourable cap figure.
Right there is $9-10 million of new cap space. If they want more, they could create more by letting other players go. They could choose not to re-sign Antropov (unlikely) or Sundin (very unlikely).
I think if you look at this Leaf roster and envision it with Jason Blake and Chris Drury, plus perhaps Curtis Joseph as a backup to Raycroft, it looks a lot stronger.
The Leafs will certainly be in there pitching at free agent time, but so will a lot of other clubs.
Q: Looking ahead to next year, I think the Leafs need to clear cap space to bring in scoring, grit up-front, and goaltending help. Peca has defensive & leadership value, but is clearly overpriced at $2.5 million. Despite his 20 goals, I wouldn't re-sign O'Neil at any price as he doesn't appear to be a good fit and is invisible most nights. How do you see the Leafs upgrading at forward in the off-season? Do you believe, as I do, that their current crop of forwards is "too soft" to compete against the more physical teams in the league?
In goal, Raycroft has had his ups & downs, but bottom line, his save percentage is poor and he's been awful in shootouts where many points are won and lost nowadays. Should the Leafs look for another starter, or find an experienced back-up (Cujo?) who can mentor Raycroft and provide some quality minutes?
Dave Owens, Regina
A: I don’t think the Leafs are too soft up front. I think they aren’t skilled enough or fast enough and, of course, big skilled players are always better than small skilled players in a rugged league like the NHL. If by too soft you mean they don’t have many fighters up front, I’d agree, but they have some big bodies with an ability to crash the net and cycle the puck. They just don’t have enough consistent scorers.
Regarding Peca, I’d bring him back at less than his current $2.5 million salary if he’s interested.
Regarding the goaltending situation, this is about buying time for Justin Pogge and hoping he’ll be the real deal. Pogge won’t be ready next year, and Raycroft is in the second year of a three year deal. Bringing in Joseph for one year to play, say, 30 per cent of the games would improve the Leafs at their weakest position. By the 2008-09 season, Pogge might be ready after two full years in the minors.
Q: I was reading the Leafs should have about $10 million to spend next year on free agents. In your opinion, does it makes sense to spend the majority of that money on a top-end player and then see who else is out there or would it make sense to sign a couple of players who make about $4-$5 million a season?
What is the Leafs' most pressing need in the off-season?
Will Mike Peca re-sign for a reasonable amount in Toronto? And, how much money do you think Ryan Smyth will command at free agency this summer? I'd love to see him in a Leaf uniform, but not if he's going to cost $6 million or higher a season. Thanks!
Chris Clay, Mississauga
A: See, I don’t think you can pick out one player and say, he’s worth only this amount or that amount. The concept has to be to identify the players that would best fit your roster and then identify what the market price is. Many complain about Pavel Kubina being a $5 million defenceman, or not being one, but the fact is there were a number of other clubs offering the same money. The Leafs identified the player and paid the going rate, for better or worse.
The trick over the course of the month of June will be for John Ferguson Jr. (JFJ) to try and find out what each player would cost, and then be prepared to move as quickly as possible – and as aggressively as possible – on the players he wants.
This is the summer he needs to score big.
Q: With the now apparent glut of centres (Green, Perrault, Peca, Pohl, Sundin, Wellwood, Steen, etc. who doesn't come back next year or gets moved to wing?
Also, how do you see Harrison and Kronwall's future shaking out?
Michael Nestlehut, Harper Woods, Michigan
A: I would imagine Green and Perreault won’t return, the latter particularly if he’s looking for $2 million per season or more. Peca, as I mentioned above, would likely be welcome back at a lower salary. After that, Sundin’s a clear No. 1 centre, but the others all look like wingers – particularly if you include Matt Stajan – or third-line centres.
That’s why centres like Drury, Daniel Briere, Scott Gomez or even Keith Tkachuk will have appeal to the Leafs.
Harrison still has an outside shot. Kronwall is still very much in the team’s plans, but he hasn’t been able to stay healthy.
Q: This season, JFJ makes a questionable trade for Raycroft, giving up a promising prospect. Then signs Raycroft before his first regular season game to a multi-year contract, which he is proving not to have deserved.
So, how much pressure is JFJ putting on Maurice to make him play his off-season acquisition game in and game out?
Why can't JFJ accept his mistake, like Muckler in Ottawa, playing the much better Emery, who they already had, over the veteran Gerber, acquired to be their No. 1?
And I don't care if Raycroft breaks Belfour's record for single season wins. Belfour had 37 wins in 62 games. Raycroft has already played 62 games, and his 32 wins include a few shoot out winners Belfour didn't have the same chance for. If Raycroft had had 40 wins in 62 games, I might have been impressed.
Andrew Barrie, Toronto
A: Well, as far as I can tell, your question appears to be whether JFJ is pressuring Maurice to play Raycroft, and whether the Leafs would be better off turning to Jean-Sebastien Aubin down the stretch and as the club’s No. 1 goalie.
On those two questions, I would say no and no.
A more significant question, however, is whether Ferguson may have to admit a mistake on Raycroft this summer, either by going out and getting a better netminder or by acquiring a masked man capable of challenging Raycroft.
The end to this season may determine that.
Q: Damien, I understand that most of your questions regard the Leafs, but I have a question about the Habs. Here's a team managed and coached by three "heart and soul" former players: Bob Gainey, Guy Carbonneau and Kirk Muller. All of these guys were the type of players who would sacrifice anything to block a shot or score a goal.
What I can't figure out is why they don't have any players of that calibre in their current lineup. I was really hoping they'd try to grab Ryan Smyth, a player cut from their own cloth, but it didn't materialize.
What's going on with the Habs over the last few years?
Rick Flanagan, Memphis
A: I think the Habs do have some of the players you describe, Saku Koivu for one, perhaps further down the lineup a player like Steve Begin. Could they use more? Definitely. One of the problems I believe teams are experiencing is identifying the prototypical team capable of succeeding in the “new” NHL. Should it be small and fast like Buffalo? Bigger and meaner like Anaheim? This stuff is still flushing itself out, and Montreal seems one of the teams caught in the transition. Moreover, they have a lot of young players, and often those kinds of players don’t fully define themselves until later in their careers. Maybe the Habs have more “heart and soul” players than you think, but they’re just not mature ones yet.
Q: I recently read one of your articles indicating that possible expansion in the NHL is on the horizon. Considering there are no true hockey markets left in the U.S., coupled with the fact NHL ratings in the States are for the most part abysmal, why would this even garner any kind of consideration? Perhaps you were alluding to expansion in Canada? This is the only option that makes sense to me. Can you please elaborate?
James N., Courtice, Ont.
Q: Let me give you the NHL’s viewpoint first. The Bettman administration would argue there are other markets such as Houston, Seattle, Kansas City and maybe even Las Vegas, and its spokesmen would also tell you its national TV package is a project still in development.
Just like its been for 40 years.
Now let's look at hockey reality.
Expansion on its own is a terrible idea because the players just aren't there, and more expansion to the U.S. is an even more terrible idea. But you can bet the NHL is looking at it, if only because expansion dollars don’t have to be shared with the players under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement.
This is a league that added nine teams in nine years. Caution and logic has never defined the NHL’s expansion policy, not now, not back in ’67 when they doubled the size of the league and stuck all the new teams in one division to render the Stanley Cup final a joke for several years.
Click here to send Damien a question and he'll answer a selection in his mail bag every Thursday in this space.
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