The Kids Are. . .Where?

Maybe J.P. Ricciardi deserves to walk the plank. Maybe not.

Moreover, it's not clear what purpose such a move would serve in May of the 2007 MLB season.

But there's something here that just doesn't make sense.

To my limited baseball understanding, the arrival of Ricciardi in 2001 was supposed to herald a new style of doing business for the Blue Jays or, more accurately, a return to the way in which they once did business.

Unable to compete financially with the Yanks and Bosox, the Jays were going to have to be Oakland East, or even a Canadian version of the Minnesota Twins. Lean and resourceful, they would rely on sharp drafting and young players to gradually match what New York and Boston were accomplishing with swollen payrolls. The farm system would accomplish what big money could not, although it might take a little time.

So here we are in 2007, and my question is simple.

Where are the kids?

If memory serves, this team wasn't going to be about expensive free agents and veteran talent, wasn't going to depend on big names and huge salaries. Yet here we are worrying about B.J. Ryan's elbow, A.J. Burnett's lack of productivity and Frank Thomas' inability to deliver bang for the buck.

This sure looks like the Jays, under Ricciardi, are trying to do exactly what the Red Sox and Yankees are doing, but just not doing it nearly as well.

I thought, perhaps in error, that the idea was to suffer for a while and then hit it big like the Milwaukee Brewers are doing this season with a young, affordable roster (one that, interestingly, includes former Jay drafts David Bush and Gabe Gross).

Instead, there's a $100 million payroll, a hugely expensive centre fielder but no pitching, a light sprinkling of youth acquired during the Ricciardi era and a GM who can't quite stop doing a rather lame Pinocchio act these days.

All of this would be fine if the rest of the baseball world was drooling over the talent hidden in the Jays system, slowly maturing and soon-to-be-ready for prime time, poised to take over the burden if and when older players stopped producing or broke down.

But that's not the case, either.

Did I miss a memo somewhere? I can live with Ryan's elbow going snap. That's baseball.

But where are J.P.'s kids?

Comments

[Christopher Jones]

The kids are not here yet because it is still too early to judge J.P on his drafting strategy. Most draftees take 4-7 years to develop so we should only now be begin to see some returns.

Of course we have seen some returns already. Aaron Hill, Adam Lind, Casey Janssen, Shawn Marcum and Vermilyea are all J.P's draft picks and all are on the major league club contributing. Furthermore, J.P's drafts have been used to trade for Jeremy Accardo and Lyle Overbay.

In the system we still have David Purcey, Jesse Litsch, Curtis Thigpen among others who look like solid prospects.

I'm not saying that J.P is a great drafter but we have to be fair when evalutating what he has done.

[Jim Boyd]

When your only catchers in your organization's depth chart are Greg Zaun and Sal Fasano, something has gone wrong somewhere.

4-7 years for prospects to develop??? It's now 4 years since 4 years ago. The infield sucks and where is our 126M $ man in CF. Such a bad move! Wells is good but never going to carry a team.

When you are down by 6-8 runs every game, losing your stopper doesn't mean anything. This team right now needs hitting, and some heart, not a stopper.

[Sanj]

Once hockey is over and if the Jay's continue to suck, it's going to be one looooooooooooooooooooong summer.

[IanDonnelly]

You can add Russ Adams, Dave Bush, Gabe Gross, Brandon League
Dustin McGowan and Vinnie Chulk to that list too. The draft picks are there, the Jays problem is pitching plain and simple. Their rotation and bullpen are probably the worst in the league. Pitching is expensive, and kids, much like NHL defencemen, take a long time to mature into reliable starters/relievers. Ryan is gone for a long time, no sense in whinning about it anymore, League has closing stuff when he gets healthy. As for buying huge players, it's a neccesity. Glaus, Thomas and Ryan put fans in the seats. Take a walk around the new Jays shop at Gate 5 and everything is Glaus, Thomas, Ryan, and Doc. The big names come at a price, but it's definatley needed and welcomed.

[A-Mar]

Accardo was acquired at the cost of Hillenbrand and Chulk (an Ash pick if memory serves). Lyle Overbay was acquired for Gross (Ash), Bush (Ash, I believe but I could be wrong) and Jackson (Riccardi). So really only one J.P. pick was sacrificed... if you look at the impact young-ish players on the Jays roster: Halladay (Ash), Wells (Ash), Rios (Ash), Hill (Riccardi). Hmmm, seems although Gord Ash is more the architect of any Blue Jay success than Riccardi... if you throw in that McGowan and League are also Ash picks... Orlando Hudson, who was traded for Glaus was an Ash pick... Damien is completely right... where the heck are the J.P. picks? The problem lies in that J.P.'s moneyball drafting strategy gives you guys who have a very definite talent ceiling... you will not generally find a star from moneyball drafting... you simply cannot play it safe all the time... if you look at teams like Florida, Tampa Bay (for hitters anyways), and Detroit who have a lot of talented youth on their roster, it is from taking risks at the draft and finding players with high potential.

[Leigh]

I'm glad you brought this to light Damien, I've been trying to get people to hear this for at least a year now. Kids?! What kids? Going through the Jays' minor league rosters, there is a 34 year old pitcher for Single A Dunedin, a 36 year old pitcher for AA New Hampshire, and a 33 yr old outfielder, and there are 3 of 13 pitchers for the Sky Chiefs that are older than anyone on the Jays' 40 man roster. I'm tired of hearing 'oh it's not their faults, injuries killed them'. Why is Toronto wasting a spot on their AA team for a guy that's 36, and a Single A roster spot for a 33 yr old? Sure I'd love to be playing pro ball too, but seriously, if you haven't made AAA by the time you're 30, I think it's time to move on. These guys are taking up spots for guys that COULD be developing. Everyone is too busy looking at JPs Toronto squad, which on paper is promising compared to what we've had for that last few years. One of JPs first moves when he came to Toronto if I'm not mistaken, was he fired most of the amateur scouting staff. Which has hurt right from the start, relying on non-organization central scouting offices. People get injured, that's not JP's fault, not stocking the minor league system to soften the blow of injuries is 100% JP's fault. Back in the Gillick days, Toronto had one of the best minor league organizations in MLB, is it just coincidence that they were winning during that period too? NO.

[Chris Boyle]

Damien, you nailed it on the head. JP's plan changes every year. He was supposed to rebuild this team from within. Almost all of the Jays significant players were drafted by Gord Ash (Wells, Halladay, Rios) Free Agency (Thomas, Ryan, Burnett) or players that JP acquired through Ash draftees (Glaus (Orlando Hudson), Overbay (Gabe Gross)). That is the core of this team.

Gord Ash was run out of town during a 6 year span in which he drafted Roy Halladay, Craig Wilson, Ryan Freel, Billy Koch, Vernon Wells, Michael Young, Orlando Hudson and Alex Rios. During Ash's tenure the Jays record was 541-575. JPs record as of today is 411-432. Why is he secure in his job?

As far as giving his draftees time to make the big leagues and we cannot judge him until after 4-7 years I present the following players draftes or Free Agents since 2002 that are in the big leagues today:

Scott Kazmir, Nick Swisher, Cole Hamels, Joel Zumaya, Anthony Reyes, Jeff Francis, Prince Fielder, Jeff Francouer, Matt Cain, Brian McCann, Jonathon Broxton, Elijah Dukes, Curtis Granderson, Delmon Young, Rickie Weekes, Nick Markakis, Chad Cordero, Carlos Quentin, Chris Ray, Jonathon Papelbon, Felix Hernandez, Philip Hughes

Keep waiting for Ricky Romero Jays fans.

The fact that JP rode in on his white horse and sold the Oakland A's blueprint and 4 years later is telling Ted Rogers that if the payroll is not increased they cannot compete seems like a 180 to me. What happened to we cannot keep Delgado because one player eating up 18 million of salary makes it impossible to build a winner then 4 years later signing Vernon Wells to AN 18 MILLION CONTRACT EXTENSION??????

Why did the media hold Ferguson and Babcock accountable for everything and hold a parade because the Jays finished a distant second last season.

This clown has to go.

[Cap]

Hallday took 7 years after being drafted before his first good season. Last year was Rios breakout year, 7 years after being drafted. Wells took 5 years. Dustin McGowan was drafted in 2000 and is still trying to make it.

Riccardi started drafting in 2002. 5 years ago.

Also, Ash's last 4 drafts have produced the following full-time major leaguers:
Alex Rios, Brand Lyon (waived by Ash), Reed Johnson, Vinnie Chulk, Gabe Gross, (not even a real full time player), Felipe Lopez and Jay Gibbons (lost in Rule V draft in 2000)
The massive lack of pitching drafted by Gord Ash's last 4 years is a huge problem affecting the Jays right now.

By the way, Peterson (Riccardi draft pick) was traded for Hillenbrand and Bush was a Riccardi pick.

[Denny]

Its pretty easy to look at all the negatives when things arn't going well.
There are well over 100 games to play and people are jumping ship pretty early.
Gord Ash has definatly had some great drafts, but people seem to forget some of the flops as well. Miguel Negron was drafted in the first round in 2000 and will never be a big league player. Gabe Gross is nothing to write home about either.
Give Riccardi some time, people seem to forget what kind of shape this team was in 4 years ago. He has turned this team into a contender and has made some good moves. You cant expect every draft to have 3 or 4 solid big leauge guys.
Lets take a look at what Riccardi has done
2002
Russ Adams - Flop he will probably never be an everyday player
2003
Aaron Hill - Excellent player, Damian if you have even watched one or two Jays games you have to love the way this kid plays. He will be an allstar in the near future, if not this year.

Shawn Marcum - He is looking like a dependable big leauge pitcher, just threw 6 hitless innings today.

Josh Banks - Still in AAA and could possibly be called up to take Halladays start. He is having a strong season so far, could turn out to be an ok back end starter.

James Vermilyea - Called up due to injuries, but so far so good, but the book is still open on whether he will stick

2004 - getting to the point where these players are still prospects

Zach Jackson - Traded for Overbay, But from what I know expected to be a solid mid rotation guy

David Purcey - Has struggled up till this year, but So far is having an excellent season in AA expect him to be in AAA by the end of the year. Could still end up cracking the majors in a year or two

Adam Lind - Excellent left handed bat, Is struggling a bit this year, but expect that to turn around. He hit .367 in his first call up to the majors. Could be a future Allstar.

Casey Janssen - Looking to be an excellent pitcher. Is having a strong start to the season, could be a solid mid rotation guy, or a mid-late inning releiver.

2005 - Ok now we are too the point where these guys are still a year or two away from making big leauge rosters.
Players to watch:
Ricardo Romero - Lefty, who could turn into a mid rotation starter
Ryan Patterson - Speedy defensive outfielder

2006: Players to watch
Travis Snider - Probably the best bat too come out of the draft. Won MVP honours in the rookie leauge. Expect big things from him
Brandon Magee - Solid pitcher, expect him on the roster in a few years

So Damian you question was "where are the kids?" here is your answer. Really we are only seeing two of J.P.'s drafts have any effect so far. I'll admit 2002 was not a great draft, and you can not expect every draft to be a good one. He made up for it in 2003. You can't judge a draft untill the players have had a chance to crack the big leauge roster. Its not like hockey where your fisrt round picks make an impact in a year or two. Baseball is a skill game and these players have to hone their skills for a few years before they are ready to play. I think J.P. is doing a fine job, and this team will be a serious contender for a few years still. Don't forget the core of this team is locked up for 3 or 4 more years, and as some of his picks filter in too the lineup we can expect some good things.

[A-Mar]

seems although Milwaukee isn't having issues with youth...

[Joel]

A-Mar and Boyle have some really interesting points. Actually, this is a pretty lively discussion, and it's not about the Leaves!

I would like to add, and this has been a story in the Star I believe, that the Jays under Jip have become obsessed with white college boys. Back in the 80s, the Jays were ahead of the curve, with drafting from the Dominan etc., now we're behind. Maybe it's a result of the moneyball/conservative approach, considering that the Central Americans aren't as well a known commodity and their hitters tend to be more impatient. Or maybe it's something more SINISTER. But there's a whole lot of talent down there that we seem to be ignoring, and George Bell would be rolling over in his grave at this situation if he were dead.

[Cap]

Dominican, Japanese etc aren't DRAFTED. They are signed to the highest bidder. Wang, Cabrera, Cano were all signed by the Yankees (and all were actually signed before JP became GM of the Jays).

And anyone who thinks Ash's drafting has led to Milwaukee's success has missed the whole point. What drafted players since Ash was hired are part of Milwaukee's roster yet? That's also ignoring the fact that Ash is only an assistant GM and doesn't have final say.

[Denny]

The Jays signed a 16 year old Venezuelan 3rd baseman, Balbino Fuenmayor. But dont expect him in the big leauges for another 6-7 years. As you can see if this team wants to win now, they have to draft some college players that can help the team quickly.

[A-Mar]

the Brewers comment was just me kicking sand... I know Gord Ash hasn't been the architect of the Brewers youth... Denny, I like that you are a true fan, and you have a really firm grasp of the talent level of several key prospects... but your assessments are still going with my point that the Jays lack impact players in the system... how many of the pitching prospects that you mentioned have an upside of a 'solid mid to late rotation guy'... aside from Snyder (which was heralded as a departure from his previous drafting strategy) the Jays have not a single impact player from these JP drafts... the best of the bunch is Hill who looks to have an above average ceiling. Janssen, Romero, Purcey, Jackson, Marcum, and Banks are all late rotation guys... no Halladays in there... and if you tell me that Adam Lind is a future all-star, you are lying... he is a player with a sweet stroke and above average hitting potential... but he lacks true power and has more of a line drive stroke... think of Lyle Overbay (which is nothing to sneeze at)...

[A-Mar]

don't get me wrong... I think J.P. has done a decent job... but he really needs to work on the draft to fulfill even a part of what h promised at his hiring.

[Nathan]

It's pretty obvious JP is not the right GM to build a winner in Toronto

He traded away good young infielders in Felipe Lopez and Caesar Izturis...and got nothing of value in return (Jason Arnold and Luke Prokopec anyone?)

And then in a league where pitching is everything...JP passed on quality young pitchers like Scott Kazmir and Cole Hamels...for light hitting SS Russ Adams

Then consider JP was willing to commit 100 million to journeymen pitchers Ted Lilly and Gil Meche...and what the Blue Jays have is one of the worst GMs in baseball

And while it's fun to criticize his ineptness...it's also very sad to think he's under contract until 2010...and has the full support of Paul Godfrey

As a Jays fan...all I have to say is...

Let's go Raptors!