Blowing Things Up Real Good

One of the most popular suggestions these days for the Maple Leafs, a team without a clear immediate future or long-term future, is that the team should "blow up" its current roster, sink to the bottom of the NHL standings for a few years and rebuild with stars through the draft.

You know, just like the Pittsburgh Penguins did it. Sort of.

Well, the Washington Capitals should serve as a warning to the Leafs or any other team considering that strategy.

See, it just may not work. There's no guarantee.

The Caps fired their coach, Glen Hanlon, yesterday, and replaced him with ex-Leaf Bruce Boudreau after sinking to dead last in the NHL. After a 39-win season in 2002-03, the Caps haven't finished above 14th in the East and aren't going much higher this year, it would appear.

Maybe it's too early to totally evaluate the Caps', ahem, strategy. Nicklas Backstrom, the fifth pick of the '06 draft, is just getting his feet wet in the NHL, and the fifth pick of last summer's draft, defenceman Karl Alzner, is a couple of years away.

But other than Alex Ovechkin, the Caps don't appear to have the stars or star-quality prospects that would theoretically fuel a surge up the NHL standings anytime in the near future. Maybe they've got to wallow in the lower regions of the draft a while longer to mimic what, say, the Quebec Nordiques pulled off by finishing so terribly for so long in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

It's not just the Caps. You might make the same argument about Florida, and possibly Columbus as well, although the Blue Jackets are showing signs of making strides this season. Under the worst-case scenario, you just end up with a lot of young kids learning how to lose together.

Point is, going way, way down doesn't necessarily mean future success. Even Pittsburgh has stalled to some degree this season.

Blowing it all up, Leaf fans, might just make it worse.

Comments

[Don]

'Blowing up' the Leafs and sinking to the bottom is no guarantee you are quite right. Downright stupid in my opinion. The best gamble is in the top 10-12 players.
Not in getting #1 or #2 pick. To achieve that you don't have sink to the bottom of the standings. A decent trade can get you that draft pick from another bottom feeder.
But the trick is to have enough good players that you can trade one for an early pick, which the leafs don't have right now. That takes good planning over the years, and a bit of luck. When someone pulls a gem out in the 30th or later pick in the draft, was that is a planned move? no, it was blind luck. Because if they thought he was that good they would have picked him higher. Or a Martin St. Louis, or Daniel Briere. Those are all blind luck moves.
It starts with a good farm system. Say what you will about the Marlies and the players on it, but having a winning team there is much better than a losing one, they have to come from someplace. It's not the cure, but it sure is a piece of the cure. Some of JFJ's moves haven't worked, but some have, he needs a good farm system and so far he's doing a good job there.

[Jon K.]

I think the appeal of blowing it all up is that at least with young players, there's hope that they will get better and develop into prime-time players. The problem has been in acquiring over-the-hill talent at the expense of the team's depth, at a price that they are locked into for years. It's nice to see that the talent that the Leafs have kept (Stajan, Steen, Poni, Kaberle) have been good - unfortunate that they gave away Boyes and Rask for players that are no longer playing, or at positions that they could've filled internally, IMO. At this point, I'd take Tellqvist as a backup to Raycroft rather than the two headed monster with ridiculous contracts that they've got going. A lot of veteran acquisitions have turned out badly for the Leafs, I honestly wonder if they aren't doing their due dilligence on some of these players medical histories.

[Clark]

You need to start pushing harder for Gilmour and Anderson to make the HOF.

Cam Neely? The Boston homers got him in.

Stop being so typically Canadian and get aggressive to get our boys in the Hall. Otherwise we'll be steamrolled with whomever the NY media wants in.

[D]

I couldn't disagree more.
The caps did a horrible job of 'sinking'.
First, they traded away their assets and got nothing in return.
Jagr for Anson Carter? C'mon. At least get a 1st rounder. Jagr is an asset, despite the salary.
They should traded Kolzig and reaped those returns.
They should not have drafted Backstrom while passing on Kessel and Bernier.
Blowing up a team is the way to go. But you have to use your brain to do it.
So in that sense I agree with Damien, the Leafs would likely blow up their team and still trade the first overall pick for a back up goalie.

[Alfredo Nazzarelli]

I agree with your comments that there is no guarantee that bottoming out will result in the Leafs getting better over time, but in life, there rarely are any gurantees. The fact is the Leafs have a better chance of getting better drafting a top 5 player in the draft over several years than drafting 13th as they have over the last few years, that is even if they kept the pick. The Penguins may have stalled but they have a better chance of winning the Stanley Cup over the next few years than the Leafs do and finally to respond to your comment that the kids may just learn to lose together, I would rather have kids losing together who are being paid minimum wage which would give you plenty of salary cap room to make changes, than to be losing with overpriced veterans that no team will trade for or want and no salary cap room to make any changes for several years to come.

[JP Connock]

What is the point in 'blowing up' a team whose management is bound and determined to trade away all the young talent in favour of has-beens and almost-weres?

The key that the Leafs seem to lack is a consistent vision. Rather, a consistent vision that actually has a chance to bring a Cup back to Toronto.

I'm almost glad that Rask played so well for Boston the other night. I'd be much happier if I thought that the Leafs' management was capable of understanding the lesson provided by that loss.

[Sam L]

Here's a concept:
1. Hire the best set of scouts you can find.
2. Keep your draft picks.
3. Give the scouting staff unlimited funds
4. Keep your draft picks.
5. Install an excellent development system.
6. Keep your draft picks.
7. Keep your blue chip prospects. Have patience.
8. Base your contract signings on what the scouts have to say about the player (not the fans or the media) and your depth chart.
9. KEEP YOUR F'N DRAFT PICKS!

I'm a Habs fan and the way the Leafs are run annoy even me. The Leafs don't have the option of "blowing it up" due to some contracts. However, they do have an aging talented center that could bring some depth to the Leafs. Sundin has to be traded before the deadline, and it has to involve at least one blue chip prospect. It won't be an easy trade, so you might want to can JFJ before then.

Throw the Leafs money book at drafting and development. No team in the league could match their resources in that area, and it will pay off more than signing UFAs.

[Gord]

What do you suggest then Mr. Cox?

Bringing back 20 of 23 players from last year and seemingly the last 3 has produced squat. Name me 5 players on this roster not here from the Quinn regime. They weren't winning then and sure not winning now.

If you had a nucleus to build from I agree, but there is nothing here to build on.

Sundin is great but what you do in a year/2 years?

They need to make big changes to the whole team from upper management down.

I am sick of tired of this team being medicore at best. The richest team in the league should be perrenial contenders not pretenders

[Christopher Hunt]

Damien, you're killing me.

You've made it clear you don't believe the current roster is capable of making the playoffs, let alone winning a Stanley Cup.

Then you turn around and write an entry saying 'Beware Leafs fans, rebuilding can fail'.

Are there other options I'm not aware of, and is stirring the pot really that much fun?

[Anslem]

I have to disagree. As I recall, Leafs have tried your middle of the pack idea and still haven't made it to the final since 1967 let alone win the cup. But, Washington, and Florida have been to the final. So I would think blowing them up and replacing them with young kids might work. But, in the end you have to have a good GM to select the good draft picks, and pick the right year to stick the joint. If as most scouts claim 2008 and 2009 drafts are good then this might be the years to do it. The Caps may be parenial losers, but they atleast have Alex Ovechkin and might make it to the final again before the Leafs. Whom do the Leafs have when Sundin decides to retire? Besides, most teams that have finished badly since 1967 like Pittsburg, Colorado, Detroit, New Jersey, Carolina, Ottawa have already won the cup or have a better chance of winning than the Leafs and that alone is enough reason to blow it all up. The only reason you might be against this idea might be because you won't have much to right about the Leafs if they decide to go for last.

[eric(baltimore)]

Completely wrong Damien. First whoever said Kessel is better than Backstrom is crazy.Nick will be a perennial 20 goal 50 assist man. The Caps failed because McPhee has done a horrible job with high picks. Other than Ovechkin(no-brainer) his only quality picks have been Semin(12th),Green(27th) and Backstrom(4th). Look at his stiffs: Pokuluk,Lepisito,Finley,Emminger and many others passing on many future All-Stars. However would I trade the Caps core of Ovechkin,Semin,Backstrom,Green,Alzner,Bourque,Varlamov and Neuvirth for the Leafs young "core"? No fricking way. The Leafs are stuck in no mans land like the NY Knicks. They charge too much money to a fanatical fan base to go thru a legit rebuild so unless they can acquire stars thru trades ala SJ and Thornton or the Rangers with Jagr they are doomed to mediocrity. So don't feel sorry for us Caps fans as we should soon add another top 5 talent to our core.

[Mark G]

Damian come on. Blowing it up right now is the only option. For every "washington" example you site, I can site a team thats done it well. The Flyers for example. The completely rebuilt in 18 months. I will take that anytime.

[Adam C]

The Flyers are an argument AGAINST blowing up a roster and deliberately tanking. They held on to their core players and are succeeding because they drafted solid prospects despite seldom picking at the top end of the draft.

I'm with Damien: deliberately tanking sucks all the fun out of hockey for years, with no guarantee whatsoever of eventual success.

But I think all of us here can agree on two things:

1) Incompetent management will cause failure regardless of the overall strategy.

2) A strategy of mortgaging the future for a shot at playoff qualification will cause failure regardless of the quality of management.

...and the Leafs just may be 2 for 2...

[Dragon Guy]

The thing that I can't figure with The Leafs is that a couple years ago, they make a big thing about drafting two young, good goal tenders who will lead them to the promised land.

Shortly after, they go on a goaltending shopping spree and get a couple guys who are half decent at best. I would have given the young guys a chance before abandoning all hope. Where's the long term planning in all of this?

I believe that you need to start over from the top down. Evaluate each player and decide whether he stays or ends up at the Wade Bellick Charm School for Underachievers.

[Rocky]

Damien, I don't think the Leafs have to blow it up. What I think they need to do is finally remove JFJ from his post and start fresh in that department. I like JFJ but maybe a new set of eyes will put his own imprint on the team. Players JFJ refuses to move because he signed them would no longer be an issue with the new person in charge. If the new guy like Maurice, great, but if not then he goes as well. They need to make changes and those changes would come with new GM.

[Ron Kirby]

It's just to bad the Leafs have been in the Christmas Spirit all year. The 5 or 6 points they have given away would be making oh so much difference in the standings right now. It seems that, that is the major reason we are all sad and upset instead of happy. The team actually looks good. It's so sad that a few minutes, and just a few mistakes, may cost them the whole season, AGAIN. Maybe it's just some minor fine tuning needed.

[Remi]

Whoever says that the Leafs should trade Mats Sundin has no brains.He is the best Leaf player and they should never even think of trading him.What Toronto has to do is get rid of Ferguson.He is the one that is responsible for the way the Maple Leafs are playing.Toronto needs a new manager or they won't make the playoffs again.

[Joey Jeremiah]

I wouldn't want the Leafs to build a real winner either if my bread and butter was writing "the Leafs haven't won in 40 years" every third or fourth sentence.

[Don Knox]

Damien, if your basic argument is that there are no guarantees in life, congratulations for stating the obvious.
Is blowing up this team going to have risks? Of course it is, but continuing to do what this organization has done for the past 41 years only guarantees more of the same.

[Mike R]

Your points are well taken. Blowing up the roster is not sufficient. To do this and re-build the team requires organizational smarts at the GM and hockey operations level, a committment from ownership, a good scouting department and some luck.

By my way of thinking, the Leafs are 0 for 4 in these catagories.

[Hans Balltugger]

Damien is right in not going directly to the bottom. However, we can do it shrewdly by NOT trading our draft picks PLEASE, and trying to dump salary for more picks along the way.
Then, in the off-season, sign a player or two who are not 32 or older looking back at the better part of their careers.
Some GM will bite on McCabe or Blake at the trade deadline....giving up bad salary decisions can be as beneficial as anything.

[Willy B]

If the Leafs blow up their roster and it backfires, is that really any worse than what we have now? The best thing that could happen is for the Loafs to finish last so they can get one of the top draft picks. Stamkos ( Sarnia Sting) could be had.
Most good teams are led by a player they drafted high in the first round. The Loafs will likely get the 13th or 15 pick, and settle for a guy who might? help them in 3 years.
40 years of crap. it is time to do something different, even drastic!

[Nevyn]

Losing big doesn't have to be a part of the plan, the leafs just have to stop sending good money after bad. They keep committing to long contracts for 30+ year olds, and trading awau quality picks and prospects for questionable talent.

Instead of that, the Leafs should have been hoarding the young talent that they already had and slowly fazing out the older players. And if that meant dumping a Tucker or Sundin at the deadline, so be it.

You don't have to go all the way in the tank like those other franchises did, but even if you do, as the Toronto Maple Leafs they have both the spending power and the drawing power to bring in a new wave of free agents to supplement and bolsters the youngsters once they get a good, young system.

Washington, Columbus and Florida aren't exactly dream destinations for hockey players.

[Rob]

Blowing it up is not the right answer. The point that needs to be made is that while you shouldn't trade away your high draft picks, you also have to make good selections with the ones you keep.

[PJ Morrow]

Yet another subtle effort by Damian Cox to throw his support behind John Ferguson Jr. Everyone knows the Leafs owners run their team based on what they read in the newspaper. But they won't read Cox telling them to fire JFJ -- which they absolutely should -- because they're palsy-walsy.
Go ahead, Damian, say it: Ferguson's done a good job. Erode your credibility a little more with your readers.