On The Precipice

Either the NHL standings are lying and have been lying for three months, or the Maple Leafs have clearly established themselves as also-rans with very little chance of qualifying for post-season play. There's not even very much to argue about any more.

They sit in 12th place in the Eastern Conference today, and have only briefly been among the top eight teams in the conference since the season began.

Even a recent hot streak - 5-1-1 in seven games - really didn't move them up much, and now they've gone cold again, including last night's 4-1 loss to a Philadelphia Flyers team that was going terribly until running into the Leafs.

During that strong streak of play, there were numerous promising signs. Now all the signs are sour, including:

- Mats Sundin and Nik Antropov, the club's two best attackers all season, have gone cold and have been split up as linemates.

- Darcy Tucker, a top-six forward a year ago, is now a seldom-used fourth liner and has three goals in 30 games. He played less than 10 minutes both games in losses to the Islanders and Flyers the last two nights.

- Andy Wozniewski, a regular member of the club's six defencemen all season, was sent to the press box Thursday in favour of Carlo Colaiacovo.

- Jason Blake, the club's key off-season free agent pickup, has five goals in 38 games and has developed a penchant for costly giveaways. He hasn't really meshed with any of the club's other forwards and spends his time tossing routine wrist shots at the enemy net from long distance.

- Kyle Wellwood, counted on as the team's No. 2 centre going into the season, has 10 points and, like Blake, is guilty of mid-ice turnovers on a regular basis and is generally ineffective five-on-five.

- Vesa Toskala, after earning the No. 1 goaltending job, is out with a mysterious groin problem. His backup, Andrew Raycroft, has given up eight goals in two games and is in the process of reducing any trade value he might have had with his terrible rebound control.

If Toskala can't go Saturday against the Rangers, it only makes sense to give Scott Clemmensen, strong all season with the Marlies, a chance to start after backing up Raycroft against the Isles and Flyers. He can't fare much worse.

In the bigger picture, only two teams - Washington and Los Angeles - have fewer wins than the Leafs' 15 triumphs in 38 games, while no team has lost as many games in OT or shootouts (eight).

Either the standings are lying, or. . .

Comments

[Roberto Calazar]

Either the standings are lying or..... the Leafs are 1 point out of a playoff spot, and 2 points out of 5th place. Maybe I am missing something here but please help me to understand the logic of this column and last week's column saying they should build for next year.
What I see is a mediocre team that doesn't have the talent to win without 2 of their top 5 players in Toskala and McCabe. That lack of depth falls on the shoulders of the GM, but there are a lot of teams with the same problem.
So clearly this is not a contending team for the Cup when compared to the Ottawas and Detroits of this world but I just don't get your statement they are not a contender for a playoff spot, based on the standings not lying as you say.....

[Bruce]

Damien,

In a previous comment I suggested that the under achieving players be benched so that they might feel embarrassed by not playing.....Didn't happen!

Well after reading your comments I have another thought. Send them down to the Marlies. The whole team if possible. I'll bet the Marlie's could easily beat the inept Flyers.

This year, and previous few years, have been a let down for Leaf fans. Being told the team is capable of getting to the playoffs and not doing so is like getting the same useless gadget at Christmas year after year.
Since this Leaf fan moved from Toronto to a city half way between Toronto and Ottawa, my brother has been asking sarcastically what I think about "my" Senators. Although I can't bear the thought of cheering for Alfredson, now I might start thinking about changing my mind. At least the team is doing what is needed to win a Cup.

Happy New Year

[Mike]

I think the standings are lying ... somehow there are only 5 (of 30) teams in this league with losing records according to the way the points are calculated. Clearly a record of 15-23 is a lot more accurate and telling than the current 15-15-8.

[Mike Ritchie]

The standings don't lie and after 38 games this is a large enough sample size to illustrate that this is what the Leafs are, a below average team with below average players. I do wish reporters, broadcasters, players and GMs would stop talking about being at .500 when it is a meaningless measure of success. Actually it is a measure of mediocrity and foreshadows another spring of discontent. As a Leaf fan, I'm not that upset though. This team needs to go deep into the crapper for a few years to have a hope of regrouping but only if it starts to scout and draft better.

[mark]

I couldn't agree with you more Damien. The only question I have now is why would MLSE leave JFJ in place for the dismantling of this team? Now would be the time to fire him and get someone in place to make the moves needed come trade deadline. Sundin (as much as I love him) needs to moved at the deadline. At this stage of his career, I'm sure he would waive his no trade clause (particularly if he can resign with the Leafs the following year and retire as their captain). Tucker is injured; that is clear to anyone who has watched him throughout his career. So, you might not be able to move him... but it would be foolish not to try. Blake has been a bust. Trade him. Pony, Raycroft. Trade Trade. Kubina. Trade. Steen. Trade. Get rid of every asset you can and get as many draft picks and prospects as possible. I don't care if the entire Marlies lineup is promoted after the trade deadline. Can JFJ make the moves needed and get value in deals? Doubtful. So, he has to be the first to go.

[Brian]

I said the Leafs will not make the playoffs , come trade deadline do the right trade Mats Sundin Darcey Tucker Jason Blake have a spring clean up for draft picks and youth ,
come the summer resign Mats ,
Even if the Leafs finish 8 they will face the Sens and these Sens will feast on the Leafs lack of speed and skill

[Patrick]

Well, I guess we can all be happy that the Leafs' board of governors are meeting in January and will make a move for the positive. Oh, that's right, that isn't likley to happen either, the team is too busy raking in the cash.

Mark Zwolinksi wrote in his article, "The club has spent the first half of the season fighting to establish a positive identity. It would appear that fight is far from over."

That's the problem, the good teams know what they are and are in the process of tweaking their teams. The Leafs are not only trying to establish a psoitive identity, they're trying to find any identity other than the 'mediocre' tag.

I wonder if Richard Dawkins would be willing to write a sports book called 'The Leafs Delusion'. I guess I'm just not a true fan to continue to drink the Kool-Aid any longer.

[Frank Schiavone]

Damien,
Do Laughs own their 2008 1st round pick, cause the way I see it they will be 28th by end of January and 30th by end of February?

[Myspace Proxy]

sad but so true, the board is incapable of firing or removing hockey operational control from Peddie. Without this beheading, this is a stay the course fiasco, once again.

[Jeff Schriber]

So Im reading over your column "on the precipice" and wondered if it is the Leafs who are on it or you as you make your rather bold statements. Clearly the big 7 games away from home didnt go brillantly but "also rans", "very little chance of qualifying". Really???

Let's see bad run and in 12th place check (so far so good), but wait there is more and it isnt ginsu knives, the 2nd place team has a whopping 5 more points than the boys in blue. In actuality the only clear playoff team is Ottawa at the moment in the east. The west isnt quite so tight mind you but even there from 4-14th place is only a matter of 9 pts and again only 1 team (detroit) is looking like a sure thing.

I think what we really see is parity which is what the salary cap was supposed to achieve. As a leafs fan I sure wish they were better and I get frustrated at the losses but in this league you dont need to have much of a run to make up big time. I dont know whether this version of the Leafs will make it or not. I would argue that many have nowhere to go but up. Wellwood was injured, Blake was crushed with a bad diagnosis, and the defense has injury after injury. Seems if they can get a few breaks here or there then they have every chance of being in the playoffs.

Once in, parity suggests that they have as much of a shot as anyone if they can get the solid goaltending they have had up until the recent injury.

So perhaps like Heaven, the precipice can wait at least a little bit.

Here's hoping for a better new year for the home town team

[Heaton]

How bad are the Leafs?

Yes Damien, in the new NHL the standings do lie especially for teams that lose 80% of their 3 pt games. Yes, the Leafs organization continue to be delusional of phony NHL standings.

With about 19% of games going to OT (and therefore 19% of games becoming 3 pt games), the average team earns 1.1 points per game. The Leafs? They don’t even come close earning exactly 1.0 pts per game. But that’s okay because in the eyes of Peddie they’re a .500 team.

Yes, Leafs are 15-15-8 which was .500 before Bettman authorized 3 pt games. But because Leafs have 2 OT wins their opponents record is 23-13-2 for 48 points. This means that as a group Leafs’ opponents have the same number of points as third overall Dallas.

The only teams earning fewer pts/game than Leafs are Atlanta, Edmonton, TampaBay, Washington and LosAngeles.
From this group the only teams that haven’t made the playoffs since the lockout are Washington and LA. I’m not sure about TB but they won the Cup in 2004 so they can be forgiven.

Just think the Leafs are tied up long-term to McCabe, Kubina, Blake, Tucker along with players signed up for next season such as Gill, Raycroft, and Bell.

And yes it gets worse, Toskala is actually proven to be a decent goalie but they will be paying 4M for decent.

Only reason Sundin, and Kaberle haven’t abandoned ship because they are foolishly loyal. The only other veteran assets they have are the Russian twin towers. Tell this to Don Cheery.

If you address this with JFJ or Peddie they’ll spin it by saying things like injuries, and suspensions (Bell) have hurt them. But guess what - bad teams tend to have more “injuries” because guys would rather sit than play.

When will the carnage end?

The teachers pension fund makes funds available to the salary cap but relatively nothing is spent on scouting, player development, proven coaching, and management. etc. If they had they would never sign the above players in their 30s to long-term deals. Today’s NHL is a young man’s game (unless you play for the Red Wings).

Damien, can you please point this out to Leafs management.?

[IdOp]

Hi Damien,

I have to take the other side of the coin regarding a comment in your post today, in which you assessed the banishment of Andy Wozniewsky to the press box in favour of Colaiacovo as a "sour sign". On the contrary, this looks to me to be a much-needed sign of enlightenment somewhere in the management, on two counts:

1) The return of Carlo is much needed. He has enough ability, and by now experience, to be a solid contributor at both ends and help make a positive difference. He can do a lot of the good things that McCabe does, with a lower frequency of errors.

2) The benching of Wozniewsky, in favour of Stralman, suggests a long overdue change in thinking. Wozniewsky is not an NHL-calibre defenceman. Apart from a surprizing offensive performance in the pre-season two years ago, he's done nothing to justify being on the team. (One could go on at length.) The jury is still out on Stralman, but in his brief time here this season he's already demonstrated that he has a brain for the game. He's not a bruiser, and how he'll hold up to the physical rigours of a longer NHL stay remains to be seen. But he can move the puck and make smart decisions with low panick threshold. Sure, he'll make a few mistakes, but with McCabe out 6-8 weeks it would be tremendous if he could play regularly and in that time show some improvement (something that won't happen with Wozniewsky).

[Ken Sy]

I totally agree with you. Unfortunately, what will end up hapening as it has for the last 15 years is that the Leafs will be about 6-8pts out of a playoff spot but instead of dumping veterans like Tucker, McCabe, Kubina and Raycroft for prospects they will trade away draft picks and prospects for 2nd or 3rd line player trying to squeeze into the playoffs. And we will either end up 8th and bounced out of the first round or end up 9th or 10th and end up picking 10-15th in the draft instead of top 5. (thats IF we didn't trade away that pick!)

[Mark]

I think you're right and that this situation hasn't changed for years now. I also think that the Leafs have been trying to develop the younger guys like Wellwood, Wozniewski, Stajan, Colaiacovo and so on, it hasn't worked out. They should get credit for trying I suppose. So maybe it's time to clean house. But then again, the lemmings always come and fill the rink and the dollars keep rolling in. So what's the incentive to change?

[Brian]

Leafs win a few games and everyone in Leaf land is happy, this team is average where they are in the standing is a reflection of the team . Jason Blake has not fit in , Tucker has lost his spark , Raycroft career is being destroyed , what else. John Ferguson has no idea what he is doing sure Toskla is not a bad deal but look who was avaiable at the time Tomas Vokoun umm ,
Leaf fans the team is in a mess Mats Sunin has to be traded to a team that can win the cup, this guy deserves it ,
I just want a end to this joke this is a major city not some hick town like Carolina or Columbus , major cities needs teams that win not loose and certainly not manage by incompetent people .

[Dark Phoenix]

Honestly, one of the biggest problems with the Leafs for the last 5 or 6 YEARS has been the tendency to ignore and/or punish players who are playing well in favor of players who aren't playing well at all.

Example? You beat up on Wellwood in this article; however, seriously, do you believe that Wellwood is getting the ice time he really should be getting? Ditto for Mark Bell here, and a few others at the bottom of the lineup. On the other hand, we have the Leafs' supposed "defensive" line of Steen, Stajan and Devereaux. Of the three, only Devereaux has shown anything resembling desire to play at all; Steen has been frustratingly inconsistent YET AGAIN (and now is starting to make unbelievably boneheaded defensive plays to help things out). Stajan is invisible for huge stretches of time. Yet both of them get almost as much ice time as Sundin does!

Wosniewski is another great example of this trend. I said when he made the team two years ago that he was not and would not be an NHL calibre defenseman. What he is is a defenseman in the Pat Quinn big-and-slow mold, and the Leafs already have too many of these to begin with. Yet simply because of a fear of the waiver wire, Wozniewski frequently gets the call over defenseman demonstratively better...

If the Leafs want to improve before the end of this century, they have to stop pushing down their promising young players in favor of players who obviously aren't producing (I notice you neglect to mention that Wellwood's goal total is only two goals behind Steen's, and four behind Stajan's, and his point totals are only slightly behind them despite the fact that they've played an extra TWENTY games...). I simply shake my head in disbelief when this continues to happen and people continue to ignore it as the big problem with this team. Quinn did it (see Nik Antropov, who despite this year's production has not been as good as he should have been and yet continued to get chance after chance), Maurice is doing it, and until someone comes in and stops doing it, the Leafs will never appear to get better.

Fact is, the Leafs are the only team I know that can't seem to product a decent top six forward from the system, and when they do by accident, the player in question get ignored for players who don't bring the goods but were drafted higher, something that still bugs me about the way most people look at potential...

[Rob]

I believe there is a direct co-relation over the last 30 + years between the horrible Leafs, their fan base, and the media. It's very difficult to make one's own diagnosis about one's own problems. I have never ever before talked with so many Torontonians who absolutely think their team is the best. In The Star's online paper last year, a question was asked: "Will the team make the playoffs?" of which I counted over 90% of respondents saying "yes, they will". Of course, they didn't - but the fact that so many people still get it wrong from year to year, makes me believe that the "Leaf Nation" is a bunch of complete idiots without any knowledge of this beautiful game. I really mean that. If Toronto fans are so smart about hockey, why do they continue to attend games? Why is it that this team is questionably the worst professional sports team in the world over the past 30 years? If you want the Laughs to win, my advice is to boycott all games, both in person and on TV, and show some real backbone to helping the team. I realise that half of the male population of Toronto wouldn't know what to do with themselves at 8:00 pm most of the week, but it would be a good place to start. Wake up everyone, use the financial power of the corporation to make huge changes, and in 5-7 years we may finally see a Stanley Cup playoff contender.

[Ron]

To me all good teams has two key elements. A superb and always dangerous top line, and an always contributing 2nd line. That second line is most critical. That is what we don't have. I do like the three big guys together. They are not our problem. Steen and Stagen rarely contributes. They are the problem. They are only baggage. I wish Maurice would stop tinkering with the lines as chemistry has no chance to develope.
Back to back games on this road trip in Atlanta and Montreal really hurt. They were dog tired by the time they got to Philly.
Finially, the dreaded 2 goal lead, we have given away at least 10 points. All of our pain is caused by this fact. Add on those 10, where would we be ?

[BeachGrove Paul]

A Vancouver newspaper reporter said this week that the Leafs were one of the most entertaining teams to watch, despite their record and standing in the East.

Here in Canuckland, we've been treated to some low scoring 'dogs', but still manage to win.

From the Wet Coast, it's unfortunate to see the way a once-great franchise has been allowed to become the laughing-stock of NHL teams.

As long as every seat at the ACC is filled, and folks are downing the $10 beers, and pricey sushi, not much will change. MLSE know where their bread is buttered.

Arrrrrrgos!

[Barb]

I keep hearing the players and the fans, and even Don Cherry tonight remind us that the Leafs are only a couple points out of a playoff spot. They lost again tonight to the Rangers - the Rangers with a second-string goalie in net - the top goalie being rested for tomorrow's game with the Habs. How many of the Leafs' points this season have come from teams playing the second or even third best goaltender? Don't tell us they are only a couple of points out of a playoff spot when the rest of the league uses games against the Leafs as a practice time for the backups or backup to the backups. Down the stretch when the games are important, there won't be easy points for the picking that they've seen so far.

[Hockey Fan, therefore by Definition Not a Leaf Fan]

Well, lets see...Leafs are now 1 game under .500...8th place team is now 1 game over .500....only problem is the Laffs have 3 teams ABOVE .500 between them and a playoff spot. I love laughing at Laffs fans...not only are they delusional, but they can't do simple math. Watching the game tonight reinforced my beliefs on how bad the Laffs really are.

I figure late January I can posting about how many games until they are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.

Anybody who can cheer for such an organization should have their head read, unless they are an investor solely interested in the bottom line.

[Gerry Markee]

I have been a fan of the Leafs for so long ...
I remember watching them win the Cup in '67. For forty years I have been waiting to see something worth cheering about. Once the Leaf's hockey game dominated my household. It was a highlight of my week. However since the strike, the Leafs, to be quite blunt, stink. They have done nothing worthwhile for so long that the only time I wear the very expensive Leaf jerseys I own is when I am low on laundry.
I do not consider myself any kind of a fair-weather fan, but to be blunt I am tired and have lost any interest in the Leafs. The last two games have been the final straw. I have loved the Leafs too long to simply become a fan of the Canadiens, Senators, or Canucks. It is easier to toss in the jersey and give up. It is the Leafs or nothing, and now they seem to be the same thing. More's the pity.

[smokey]

I think most of the comments above are way over the top. Also, believe its guys like Damien, who have the power of the pen who are so quick to abuse their authority.

The Leafs, despite their recent games are just not that far out of it and a good and prolonged streak can put them in a position to challenge. In the East, other than Ottawa, who really is that imposing, who are so much superior that on any given night, the Leafs can not compete.

Whata crock....to break up the team and trade all of our assets. It would be fun though to see how many teams would love to have some of the Leafs that so many want to discard. Thomas Kaberle is top 4 D on any team and for sure guys like McCabe, Gill. Coloaciao, White would be picked up. Players like Steen and Stajan and Wellwood are very credibile 3rd line players and the twin towers both have youth and skill to play.

Its easy to dump on Blake as expectations are high but maybe if he is dumped, all of sudden he does get hot and become the player he always has been.

I am far more concerned witht he Head Coach. I am not sure whatever he really has accomplished and his weak decisions, in part, our hurting the team. As for Fergy, the guys a rock and if anyone is deserving success to shut the negative GTA press, its him.

[Dan]

It's time to sack FErguson. A major dismantling of this team will happen and he must not be the architect. The team you are watching is the team John Ferguson has built. It's not Pat Quinn's fault anymore. He has failed miserably and he must be dismissed immediately. And please hire an experience hockey person this time! Enough with the on ice experiments.

I feel for Paul Maurice. Nobody could make a winner out of this bunch! I hope he gets to coach the Leafs after they acquire some talent and unload some of these low skill older players.

[Kevin Fauth]

Hi Damien,

As a Leafs fan I have been very loyal and always will be. Over the years, I have rarely felt that the Leafs really just needed to blow things up and start fresh. However, I really don't think that things could get worse. I think they have more talent than the teams they reside by in the standings. The first step really is to change the coaching. They really need to test if a new coach with a new system can get more from what they have... if the results are the same they really need to look to see how they can rebuild.